{"name":"TPG Forecast Ledger","publisher":"The Political Group","url":"https://www.thepoliticalgroup.com/forecasts","license":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","method":"https://www.thepoliticalgroup.com/forecasts/method","compiledAt":"2026-09-26T08:10:07Z","questions":[{"slug":"will-the-fed-raise-rates-october-2026","question":"Will the Fed raise interest rates at its October 27-28, 2026 meeting?","short":"Fed hikes again on Oct 28","pillar":"domestic","topics":["economy","white-house"],"created":"2026-09-26","resolution":{"criteria":"Resolves YES if the Federal Open Market Committee statement released at the conclusion of its October 27-28, 2026 meeting raises the target range for the federal funds rate above the current 3.75% to 4.00% range, by any amount. Resolves NO if the range is left unchanged or lowered. If the meeting is rescheduled, the first scheduled FOMC decision after October 26, 2026 counts. An unscheduled intermeeting hike before October 27 also resolves YES.","deadline":"2026-10-28","judgedBy":"Federal Reserve Board FOMC statement and implementation note on federalreserve.gov"},"whyItMatters":"A second straight hike, six days before the midterms, would push mortgage, credit card, auto loan and small business borrowing costs higher while testing whether a Trump-appointed Fed chair will defy the White House twice in a row.","impact":[{"audience":"Homebuyers and homeowners with adjustable loans","effect":"The 30-year fixed mortgage rate already averages 7.03%, up from 6.30% a year ago. Another hike tends to keep long rates elevated, and adjustable-rate mortgages and home equity lines reset directly off short-term rates."},{"audience":"Credit card and car loan borrowers","effect":"Card APRs are tied to the prime rate, which moves one for one with the Fed's range. A 0.25 point hike adds about $25 a year in interest for every $10,000 of revolving balance, and new auto loan quotes typically follow within weeks."},{"audience":"Savers","effect":"High-yield savings accounts, money market funds and new certificates of deposit usually reprice upward after a hike, so cash yields would rise modestly."},{"audience":"Small businesses","effect":"Lines of credit and SBA variable-rate loans are priced off prime, so a hike raises the monthly cost of working capital at the same time fuel and shipping costs are climbing."},{"audience":"Retirement accounts","effect":"Thirty minutes after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's September 16 press conference ended, the S&P 500 was down 1% and the 10-year Treasury yield had climbed back to 5%. A second hike would reinforce higher yields, which pressures stock and bond prices in 401(k) balances."}],"versions":[{"version":1,"published":"2026-09-26T07:36:07Z","cutoff":"2026-09-26","probability":0.68,"range":[0.55,0.8],"call":"Likely hike, but December is a real alternative","headline":"We put the chance the Fed raises rates on October 28, 2026 at 68%, as of September 26. The biggest reason: 16 of 18 officials project another hike this year and a voting governor says more is needed. We sit below the 77.5% futures price because the same hike could come in December, after the midterms.","lenses":{"psychology":["Kevin Warsh needs to prove he is not the White House's chair. He was nominated by President Trump, who has demanded rates of \"1%, or less,\" and on September 16 Trump told reporters he had told Warsh \"you might as well vote with the board\" because \"he doesn't have the votes.\" That remark makes a pause costly for Warsh: if the Fed holds in October, markets will ask whether the president put a finger on the scale. A second hike is the cleanest way to settle the independence question, and his \"dose of accommodation\" framing gives him room to keep going without calling it a new tightening cycle.","The committee's incentive runs the same way. Governor Michael Barr, a voter, said the Fed was \"out of position\" and that further adjustments are likely needed, and regional presidents Musalem and Collins have leaned the same direction. The counter-incentive is institutional face on the calendar: October 28 is six days before the November 3 midterms, and a Fed that prizes looking apolitical may prefer to move on December 9, when no election is in sight. New York Fed President John Williams, the committee's vice chair, chose the words \"by the end of the year,\" not \"in October.\"","The White House's record is loud pressure without follow-through on the Fed itself. Trump threatened on September 4 to stop trading with countries that run surpluses with the U.S. unless the Fed cut, then praised Warsh personally after the hike. Threats aimed at the Fed have so far changed the noise level, not the votes."],"history":["Reference class: every rate hike since 2004, read from the Fed's own rate-change history, and whether the very next scheduled meeting also hiked. In 2004 to 2006 the answer was yes 16 of 17 times. In 2015 to 2018, when the Fed moved roughly once a quarter, it was 0 of 9. In 2022 to 2023 it was 9 of 11. Pooled, 25 of 37 hikes, or 68%, were followed immediately by another. The first hike of a cycle was followed by a second at the next meeting in 2 of 3 cycles.","Closest analogue on political timing: November 2, 2022, when the Fed raised rates 75 basis points six days before a midterm election, with inflation high and a unanimous committee. The Fed has shown it will hike into an election when it believes inflation demands it. The closest analogue on political pressure is 2018: after a September hike under public attack from President Trump, the Fed skipped the meeting right after the midterms and hiked again in December.","Where the analogies break. In 2022 core inflation was far above target; today core CPI is 2.4%, its lowest since 2021, and the case rests on headline energy prices, hot business surveys and strong hiring. In 2018 only every other meeting had a press conference, which pushed moves to quarterly meetings; every meeting is now live. And no prior chair was nominated by a president who publicly claimed to have discussed the vote with him beforehand."],"statistics":["Start at the 68% base rate from the 37 hikes since 2004. The market starts higher: CME FedWatch put October at 77.5% on September 24, and Kalshi traders price a 25 basis point hike at about 64% plus 2% for a larger move, so markets sit between 66% and 78%.","Adjustments. Up 5 points for the data: August payrolls of 162,000 were nearly triple expectations, S&P Global's September business surveys hit multi-year highs with the steepest input cost rise in four years, and the Iran peace plan rejection keeps oil high into the October 14 CPI report. Up 3 points for Warsh's independence incentive after Trump's remarks. Down 5 points for timing: the median dot shows exactly one more hike in 2026, and December is equally consistent with that. Down 3 points for the six-day proximity to the midterms and a vice chair who pointedly said \"by the end of the year.\"","68 plus 5 plus 3 minus 5 minus 3 lands at 68%. The range of 55% to 80% reflects two data releases that can swing it: the September jobs report on October 2 and September CPI on October 14. The market moved from roughly 51% to 77.5% in one week, which shows how sensitive this call is to each print."]},"betweenTheLines":[{"type":"omission","signal":"The September 16 statement dropped any forward guidance. It ended with \"The Committee will deliver price stability\" and said nothing about the extent or timing of further moves.","read":"Leaving out the usual guidance keeps both October and December open and lets Warsh avoid a pre-commitment the White House could attack in advance. Williams later called the era of explicit guidance \"over.\" It raises the chance of a surprise in either direction relative to a normal Fed."},{"type":"tone","signal":"Warsh repeatedly called the hike removing \"a dose of accommodation\" and said the neutral rate has no operational effect on today's decisions.","read":"Calling current policy still accommodative at 3.75% to 4% is hawkish: it implies the Fed is not yet restraining the economy, so there is no natural stopping point after one more step. That framing argues for October over December."},{"type":"sequencing","signal":"Barr, a voting governor, said on September 23 that further adjustments are likely needed; Williams, the vice chair, said the next day another hike is reasonable \"by the end of the year.\"","read":"The Board voice pushes October; the leadership voice leaves the calendar open. When the chair's closest lieutenant declines to point at the next meeting, a December move remains live, which is why we sit below the futures price."},{"type":"cheap","signal":"Trump said Warsh doesn't have the votes and called the committee \"very hostile\" but praised Warsh personally and did not threaten his job.","read":"The pressure is rhetorical and aimed at the committee, not the chair. It raises the reputational cost of a pause for Warsh without creating any mechanism to stop a hike."}],"baseRate":{"value":0.68,"label":"of Fed rate hikes since 2004 were followed by another hike at the very next meeting (25 of 37)","n":37,"reference":"Computed by TPG from the Federal Reserve's published list of every target rate change (2004 to 2006, 2015 to 2018, 2022 to 2023 hiking cycles), counting whether each hike was followed by a hike at the next scheduled FOMC meeting.","sourceIds":["s6"]},"analogues":[{"case":"Hike six days before the 2022 midterms","year":"2022","similarity":"Inflation above target, unanimous committee, a meeting days before a national election; the Fed hiked 75 basis points on November 2.","outcome":"The Fed hiked and kept hiking at the next meeting in December.","breaks":"Core inflation was far higher in 2022 and the Fed was far behind; today core CPI is 2.4% and the push comes from energy and overheating signals."},{"case":"Pause after the 2018 midterms under presidential attack","year":"2018","similarity":"The Fed hiked in September while President Trump publicly attacked the chair he had appointed, then faced a meeting right around a midterm election.","outcome":"The Fed held at the November 8 meeting two days after the midterms and hiked again in December.","breaks":"In 2018 the Fed moved only at meetings with a press conference, roughly quarterly. Every meeting is now live, and the 2026 meeting falls before the election, not after."},{"case":"One-and-done hike of 1997","year":"1997","similarity":"The Fed raised rates once in March 1997 on overheating fears.","outcome":"It did not hike again; the next move was a cut in September 1998.","breaks":"Schwab notes it was the last true one-and-done hike, and 16 of 18 officials today already project more tightening."}],"scenarios":[{"name":"Back-to-back quarter point hike","probability":0.65,"trigger":"September payrolls stay above 100,000 and September CPI comes in at or above 3.6% on energy, confirming Warsh's overheating read."},{"name":"Half point hike","probability":0.03,"trigger":"Oil spikes after renewed strikes on Iran and core inflation jumps, pushing the committee to catch up faster."},{"name":"Hold until December","probability":0.3,"trigger":"A soft jobs report or a benign core CPI lets the committee wait until after the midterms, consistent with Williams' 'by the end of the year' wording."},{"name":"Cut or hold under market stress","probability":0.02,"trigger":"A sharp market sell-off or financial accident forces the Fed to stand down entirely."}],"signposts":[{"signal":"September jobs report on October 2 above 150,000 with unemployment at or below 4.1%","direction":"up","effect":"+6 points"},{"signal":"September CPI on October 14 at 3.7% or higher year over year, or core above 0.3% for the month","direction":"up","effect":"+8 points"},{"signal":"Warsh or Williams says the committee can be patient or that December is a natural checkpoint","direction":"down","effect":"-15 points"},{"signal":"A U.S.-Iran deal reopens the Strait of Hormuz and Brent falls below $90","direction":"down","effect":"-8 points"},{"signal":"Trump moves to fire or formally rebuke a Fed official, or announces trade cutoffs tied to rates","direction":"up","effect":"+4 points, as the committee closes ranks"}],"market":{"source":"Kalshi","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxfeddecision","probability":0.66,"asOf":"2026-09-26","gapRead":"We roughly match Kalshi (64% for a quarter point plus 2% for a larger hike) and sit about 10 points below CME FedWatch's 77.5% from September 24. Futures price the likelihood that rates are higher by the end of October, and with 16 of 18 officials projecting another 2026 hike that is well supported. We shade below futures because the dot plot does not choose between October and December, the vice chair avoided naming October, and the meeting falls six days before the midterms."},"stats":[{"value":"77.5%","label":"CME FedWatch odds of an October hike on September 24, up from about 53% a day earlier","sourceId":"s2"},{"value":"16","label":"of 18 Fed officials project at least one more hike in 2026","sourceId":"s3"},{"value":"12","label":"FOMC voters who all backed the September hike, with no dissent","sourceId":"s1"},{"value":"162,000","label":"jobs added in August, the report that preceded the hike","sourceId":"s5"},{"value":"75","label":"basis point hike the Fed delivered days before the 2022 midterms","sourceId":"s6"},{"value":"7.03%","label":"average 30-year fixed mortgage rate on September 24, 2026","sourceId":"s7"}],"sources":[{"id":"s1","title":"Trump says he told Warsh to vote for hike with the rest of Fed board: 'It's not going to matter'","publisher":"CNBC","url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/16/trump-fed-interest-rate-warsh.html","published":"2026-09-16","quote":"The decision by the 12-member Federal Open Market Committee to raise benchmark interest rates to a target range of 3.75% to 4% was unanimous."},{"id":"s2","title":"New York Fed's Williams says it's 'reasonable' to expect another rate hike by year-end","publisher":"CNBC","url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/24/feds-williams-another-rate-hike-by-year-end.html","published":"2026-09-24","quote":"FedWatch tool put the probability of an October raise at 77.5% on Thursday, up from around 53% on Wednesday."},{"id":"s3","title":"Will the Fed Hike Again in October? Dot Plot Median Points to One More Hike This Year","publisher":"TradingKey","url":"https://www.tradingkey.com/analysis/stocks/us-stocks/262172696-fed-rate-hike-october-dot-plot-median-one-more-2026-tradingkey","published":"2026-09-17","quote":"Based on this, 16 officials expect at least one more rate hike this year."},{"id":"s4","title":"Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement, September 16, 2026","publisher":"Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System","url":"https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm","published":"2026-09-16","quote":"Inflation remains elevated. Today's policy action will support a timelier return to the Committee's 2 percent goal. The Committee will deliver price stability."},{"id":"s5","title":"Fed Hikes in 12-0 Vote, Commits to Inflation Fight","publisher":"Charles Schwab","url":"https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/fomc-meeting","published":"2026-09-16","quote":"Instead, August jobs growth announced early this month was a solid 162,000."},{"id":"s6","title":"Open Market Operations: FOMC target federal funds rate changes","publisher":"Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System","url":"https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm","published":"2026-09-16","quote":"December 15 50 0 4.25-4.50 November 3 75 0 3.75-4.00"},{"id":"s7","title":"Primary Mortgage Market Survey","publisher":"Freddie Mac","url":"https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms","published":"2026-09-24","quote":"The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 7.03% as of September 24, 2026, up from last week when it averaged 6.95%."},{"id":"s8","title":"Market sees next Fed hike in October, following Barr comments and hot inflation reading","publisher":"CNBC","url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/23/market-sees-next-fed-hike-in-october-following-barr-comments-hot-inflation.html","published":"2026-09-23","quote":"In my base case, further policy adjustments are likely to be needed to ensure inflation comes down to target in a timely fashion"},{"id":"s9","title":"Three words from Kevin Warsh have Wall Street wondering how far the Fed will go with rate hikes","publisher":"CNBC","url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/18/three-words-from-kevin-warsh-have-wall-street-wondering-how-far-the-fed-will-go-with-rate-hikes.html","published":"2026-09-18","quote":"by a quarter percentage point not specifically as a tightening of policy but rather as removing"},{"id":"s10","title":"Kevin Warsh just defied Donald Trump. Now what?","publisher":"CNN Business","url":"https://www.cnn.com/2026/09/17/economy/fed-trump-rate-hike-warsh","published":"2026-09-17","quote":"Trump raised eyebrows on Wednesday evening by appearing to suggest that he gave Kevin Warsh, his handpicked Fed chairman, permission to raise rates"},{"id":"s12","title":"Iran awaits US move after WSJ report says Trump rejects peace plan","publisher":"Reuters via Cyprus Mail","url":"https://cyprus-mail.com/2026/09/26/iran-awaits-us-move-after-wsj-report-says-trump-rejects-peace-plan","published":"2026-09-26","quote":"he told his staff that he sees a renewed bombing campaign as likely"},{"id":"s11","title":"Trump threatens to halt trade with top partners unless Fed cuts rates","publisher":"CNBC","url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/04/trump-fed-rates-jobs-trade.html","published":"2026-09-04","quote":"President Donald Trump demanded that the Federal Reserve slash interest rates or else he will cut off trade with countries with which the U.S. maintains trade deficits."}],"hash":"c83769fa0444de7d845f945761344ea21f3057066f08c04573dd576f17d2ec5c"}],"faqs":[{"question":"Will the Fed raise rates in October 2026?","answer":"Probably. As of September 26, 2026, TPG puts the chance of a hike at the October 27-28 meeting at 68%. The Fed raised rates to 3.75% to 4% on September 16 in a 12-0 vote, 16 of 18 officials project another hike this year, and CME futures priced October at 77.5%. The main reason it is not higher is that the same one extra hike could come on December 9 instead, after the midterms."},{"question":"Is the Fed going to cut rates before the election?","answer":"Almost certainly not. The Fed is now raising rates, not cutting, because headline inflation is 3.4% and rising on gasoline prices. Kalshi traders price the chance of an October cut at about 1%. President Trump has demanded rates of 1% or less, but the committee voted unanimously to hike in September, and the realistic choice in October is between a hike and a pause."},{"question":"Why did the Fed raise rates in September 2026?","answer":"The Fed said inflation remains elevated and that the hike will support a timelier return to its 2% goal. Chair Kevin Warsh described it as removing a dose of accommodation because the economy strengthened: August payrolls rose 162,000, business surveys hit multi-year highs, and oil prices climbed on the Iran war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. It was the first hike since 2023."},{"question":"What does a Fed rate hike mean for mortgage rates?","answer":"Mortgage rates follow the 10-year Treasury more than the Fed's overnight rate, but hikes push both up. The 30-year fixed mortgage averaged 7.03% on September 24, 2026, up from 6.30% a year earlier, and the 10-year yield touched 5% after the September decision. Adjustable-rate mortgages and home equity lines reset directly off short-term rates, so they rise with each hike."},{"question":"Can Trump stop the Fed from raising rates?","answer":"Not directly. Rate decisions are made by a 12-member committee, and Trump's own pick, Kevin Warsh, voted with all 11 colleagues to hike in September. Trump has pressured the Fed publicly and threatened to cut off trade with surplus countries unless rates fall, but those threats have not changed any votes so far. A pause in October would raise questions about political influence, which gives Warsh a reason to keep moving."}],"resolved":null,"url":"https://www.thepoliticalgroup.com/forecasts/will-the-fed-raise-rates-october-2026"},{"slug":"will-the-supreme-court-revive-third-country-deportations-by-october-31-2026","question":"Will the Supreme Court grant the Trump administration's request to pause the ruling blocking fast third-country deportations, in whole or in part, by October 31, 2026?","short":"SCOTUS revives third-country removals","pillar":"domestic","topics":["supreme-court","immigration","white-house"],"created":"2026-09-26","resolution":{"criteria":"Resolves YES if, on or before October 31, 2026, the Supreme Court (the full Court, not an administrative stay by a single justice) grants the government's September 24, 2026 application in Department of Homeland Security v. D.V.D. in whole or in part, staying the district court's judgment requiring notice and an opportunity to contest removal to a third country. Resolves NO if the Court denies the application, sets it for argument or further briefing without granting a stay, or has not acted by October 31, 2026.","deadline":"2026-10-31","judgedBy":"Supreme Court order list or docket for the D.V.D. application on supremecourt.gov, as reported by SCOTUSblog"},"whyItMatters":"The ruling decides whether immigration authorities can quickly deport people with final removal orders to countries other than their own, without first hearing their claims that they would be tortured or persecuted there.","impact":[{"audience":"Immigrants with final removal orders","effect":"A YES ruling lets DHS send people to third countries with little notice. A NO ruling keeps the lower court's rules, including at least 15 days to seek to reopen their cases if they fear harm in the new country."},{"audience":"People already deported this way","effect":"One study estimates more than 25,000 people have been removed to third countries since 2025. The ruling will not bring them back, but it shapes whether their legal claims can still be heard."},{"audience":"DHS and ICE operations","effect":"The government says the lower court order forced it to cancel a flight carrying 70 people with criminal convictions to three countries. A YES ruling would let those flights and diplomatic deals resume."},{"audience":"Receiving countries","effect":"Countries that agreed to accept deportees from other nations, often in exchange for U.S. payments or concessions, would see transfers restart under a YES ruling."},{"audience":"Families and communities","effect":"Relatives of people with old removal orders, many of whom have lived in the U.S. for years, face a higher chance of sudden transfers to countries where they have no ties if the stay is granted."}],"versions":[{"version":1,"published":"2026-09-26T07:36:07Z","cutoff":"2026-09-26","probability":0.62,"range":[0.5,0.74],"call":"More likely than not, timing is the risk","headline":"We put the chance at 62% that the Supreme Court grants the Trump administration's request to pause the ruling blocking fast third-country deportations, in whole or in part, by October 31, 2026. The biggest reason: the same Court stayed an earlier version of this order 6-3 in June 2025, and the government has won most of its immigration emergency requests.","lenses":{"psychology":["The six-justice majority has already invested in this case. In June 2025 it paused Judge Brian Murphy's injunction, and in July 2025 it took the unusual step of issuing a second opinion to say its order paused his rulings in full. Having rebuked the same trial judge once, the majority faces a credibility cost if it now lets a very similar set of requirements take effect without comment.","The administration has strong incentives to push hard and little reason to back down. Removals to third countries are central to its deportation numbers when home countries will not accept people, and the Solicitor General framed the order as depriving the government of an essential tool for removing some of the worst criminal aliens. Coming to the Court a third time in the same case is a signal it expects to win.","The counterweight is that this time the ruling under review is a final judgment affirmed after full briefing by a three-judge First Circuit panel, not a rushed preliminary injunction. Justices like Barrett and Kavanaugh have written that the emergency docket should weigh the likelihood of the Court eventually taking the case, and a narrow judgment that mainly requires notice and a chance to raise torture claims is harder to call plainly wrong."],"history":["The reference class is the administration's immigration emergency applications decided by the Court since January 2025, as catalogued by the Brennan Center: the 2025 D.V.D. stay, Noem v. Doe (parole revocation), two Venezuelan TPS cases, the Syrian and Haitian TPS case, Noem v. Perdomo (immigration stops), Trump v. J.G.G. (Alien Enemies Act), Trump v. CASA (nationwide injunctions), Noem v. Abrego Garcia and Margolin v. National Association of Immigration Judges. The government won 8 of those 10.","The closest analogue is this case's own 2025 round. The government filed on May 27, 2025 and won a stay on June 23, 2025, 27 days later. The same timeline this year would put a ruling around October 21, inside our window.","Where the analogy breaks: in 2025 the Court was reviewing a nationwide preliminary injunction issued quickly, and it had just limited universal injunctions. Now it is reviewing a class-wide final judgment that an appeals court affirmed, and the judgment already gives the government more room than the 2025 injunction did. That makes a partial stay, rather than a full one, more likely than last time."],"statistics":["Start from the base rate: the government won 8 of its 10 decided immigration emergency applications, or 0.80. Across all 31 administration emergency rulings the rate is 23 of 31, about 0.74. We take 0.80 as the probability the Court grants at least part of the stay once it rules, then trim it to 0.78 for the stronger posture of an affirmed final judgment.","Timing is the second factor. The response was due September 28, and October 31 is 37 days after filing. The 2025 round of this case took 27 days, but the Court sometimes asks for extra briefing or holds applications for weeks, as it did in the Illinois National Guard case. We put the chance of a ruling by October 31 at about 0.80.","0.78 times 0.80 is about 0.62. A denial or a ruling after the deadline accounts for the remaining 0.38."]},"betweenTheLines":[{"type":"costly","signal":"The government came to the Supreme Court for the third time in the same case, filing a 42-page application within a week of the First Circuit's ruling.","read":"The speed and the choice to go straight to the justices, rather than seek rehearing, show the administration is confident of the majority's view and treats the flights as operationally urgent, not symbolic."},{"type":"sequencing","signal":"The First Circuit dissolved its own March 16, 2026 stay after ruling, which reactivated Murphy's judgment immediately and led DHS to cancel a flight.","read":"The appeals court chose not to give the government time to seek Supreme Court review. That makes the government's irreparable harm argument concrete, which is often what tips a stay application."},{"type":"personnel","signal":"Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson, the circuit justice for the First Circuit, set a response deadline of September 28 but did not grant an immediate administrative stay.","read":"Jackson dissented from the 2025 stay, so declining an administrative stay was expected. The Solicitor General hinted the full Court should step in if she would not, which sets up a full Court vote soon after briefing closes."},{"type":"omission","signal":"The government's public framing stresses criminal aliens and canceled flights, and says little about the 15-day window to reopen cases that the judgment requires.","read":"That gap suggests the government knows the notice requirement is the hardest part to attack on the merits. It points toward a possible partial stay that keeps some notice but lifts the rest."}],"baseRate":{"value":0.8,"label":"of the administration's decided immigration emergency applications (8 of 10) were granted at least in part","n":10,"reference":"Computed by us from the Brennan Center's Supreme Court shadow docket tracker, counting government-filed immigration applications decided since January 20, 2025: D.V.D. (2025), Noem v. Doe, two National TPS Alliance rulings, Mullin v. Doe, Noem v. Perdomo, Trump v. J.G.G. and Trump v. CASA for the government; Noem v. Abrego Garcia and Margolin v. National Association of Immigration Judges against it.","sourceIds":["s3"]},"analogues":[{"case":"Department of Homeland Security v. D.V.D. (first round)","year":"2025","similarity":"Same parties, same judge, same third-country removal policy.","outcome":"Stay granted June 23, 2025 over three dissents, then clarified July 3 to cover all of Murphy's orders.","breaks":"Then it was a preliminary injunction; now it is an affirmed final judgment with narrower requirements."},{"case":"Trump v. J.G.G.","year":"2025","similarity":"Emergency application over deportation procedures and notice.","outcome":"Government won, but the Court said detainees must get notice and a chance to seek habeas relief.","breaks":"Shows the Court can side with the government while insisting on some notice, which is the heart of this case."},{"case":"Noem v. Abrego Garcia","year":"2025","similarity":"Emergency application in a removal case involving a man wrongly deported to a prison in El Salvador.","outcome":"Government largely lost; ordered to facilitate return.","breaks":"Involved an admitted error for one person, not a policy affecting thousands."},{"case":"Trump v. Illinois","year":"2025","similarity":"High-profile administration application where the Court took extra time.","outcome":"Denied about two months after filing, after supplemental briefing.","breaks":"Involved military deployment and a novel statutory question, where the Court had fewer prior signals."}],"scenarios":[{"name":"Full stay granted by October 31","probability":0.42,"trigger":"Majority follows its 2025 order and pauses Murphy's judgment entirely while the government seeks review."},{"name":"Partial stay granted by October 31","probability":0.2,"trigger":"Court lifts most requirements but keeps some notice, for example for people who have already raised fear claims."},{"name":"Stay denied by October 31","probability":0.16,"trigger":"Roberts and Barrett or Kavanaugh defer to the First Circuit on a narrower final judgment."},{"name":"No ruling by October 31","probability":0.22,"trigger":"Court calls for supplemental briefing, treats the application as a petition for certiorari before ruling, or holds it past the deadline."}],"signposts":[{"signal":"The Court issues an administrative stay while it considers the application","direction":"up","effect":"+15 points"},{"signal":"The Court requests supplemental briefing on a specific issue such as the 15-day reopening rule","direction":"down","effect":"-10 points on timing, raises partial stay odds"},{"signal":"No order by October 23, four weeks after the response","direction":"down","effect":"-15 points"},{"signal":"New reports of deportees harmed in a receiving country","direction":"down","effect":"-5 points"}],"market":null,"stats":[{"value":"31","label":"emergency rulings on administration actions since January 20, 2025","sourceId":"s3"},{"value":"23","label":"of those rulings went for the administration at least in part","sourceId":"s4"},{"value":"25,000","label":"people estimated deported to third countries since 2025","sourceId":"s5"},{"value":"70","label":"people on a deportation flight DHS says it canceled after the ruling took effect","sourceId":"s6"},{"value":"15 days","label":"minimum time the judgment gives people to seek to reopen their cases","sourceId":"s2"}],"sources":[{"id":"s1","title":"Trump administration again urges justices to allow deportations to third-party countries","publisher":"SCOTUSblog","url":"https://www.scotusblog.com/2026/09/trump-administration-again-urges-justices-to-allow-deportations-to-third-party-countries/","published":"2026-09-24","quote":"The 42-page filing was the third time that the Trump administration has asked the Supreme Court to intervene in the battle over third-country removals"},{"id":"s2","title":"Trump administration again urges justices to allow deportations to third-party countries","publisher":"SCOTUSblog","url":"https://www.scotusblog.com/2026/09/trump-administration-again-urges-justices-to-allow-deportations-to-third-party-countries/","published":"2026-09-24","quote":"DHS must give them at least 15 days to seek to reopen their immigration proceedings"},{"id":"s3","title":"Supreme Court Shadow Docket Tracker: Challenges to Trump Administration Actions","publisher":"Brennan Center for Justice","url":"https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/supreme-court-shadow-docket-tracker-challenges-trump-administration","published":"2026-09-25","quote":"Since January 20, 2025, the Supreme Court has issued 31 decisions on the shadow docket concerning administration actions"},{"id":"s4","title":"Supreme Court Shadow Docket Tracker: Challenges to Trump Administration Actions","publisher":"Brennan Center for Justice","url":"https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/supreme-court-shadow-docket-tracker-challenges-trump-administration","published":"2026-09-25","quote":"23 ruled for the administration at least partially"},{"id":"s5","title":"DOJ goes to SCOTUS to re-start rapid third-country removals","publisher":"Law Dork","url":"https://www.lawdork.com/p/doj-scotus-third-country-removals-third-request","published":"2026-09-24","quote":"one study estimates that more than 25,000 people have been deported since 2025 using this process"},{"id":"s6","title":"Trump administration asks Supreme Court again to allow expedited third-country deportations","publisher":"JURIST","url":"https://www.jurist.org/news/2026/09/trump-administration-asks-supreme-court-again-to-allow-expedited-third-country-deportations/","published":"2026-09-25","quote":"DHS said it canceled a flight carrying 70 people with criminal convictions to three countries"}],"hash":"57c83e676617fab42fed3cbf15e19452cb7ec1414f987c3d365073ecd099371e"}],"faqs":[{"question":"What is a third-country deportation?","answer":"A third-country deportation sends a noncitizen with a final removal order to a country that is not their own and not named in their order, often because their home country will not take them back. A federal judge ruled in February 2026 that DHS must first give notice and a real chance to raise fears of torture or persecution there."},{"question":"Will the Supreme Court allow third-country deportations to resume?","answer":"The TPG Forecast Desk puts the chance at 62% that the Supreme Court pauses the lower court ruling, in whole or in part, by October 31, 2026. The Court stayed an earlier order in the same case in June 2025, and the government has won 8 of 10 immigration emergency requests. The main risk is that the Court takes longer."},{"question":"What is DHS v. D.V.D.?","answer":"Department of Homeland Security v. D.V.D. is a class action over the government's policy of deporting people to third countries. Judge Brian Murphy in Massachusetts ruled the policy unlawful, and the First Circuit largely upheld him on September 18, 2026. The government asked the Supreme Court for a stay on September 24, its third trip to the justices in the case."},{"question":"How many people have been deported to third countries?","answer":"One study cited by Law Dork estimates more than 25,000 people have been deported to third countries since 2025. The government told the Supreme Court that thousands have been removed under the policy and thousands more remain eligible, and said it canceled a flight carrying 70 people after the lower court ruling took effect."}],"resolved":null,"url":"https://www.thepoliticalgroup.com/forecasts/will-the-supreme-court-revive-third-country-deportations-by-october-31-2026"},{"slug":"will-gas-prices-be-above-4-50-on-election-day-2026","question":"Will gas prices be above $4.50 a gallon on Election Day 2026?","short":"Gas above $4.50 on Nov 3","pillar":"domestic","topics":["economy","israel-iran","elections-2026"],"created":"2026-09-26","resolution":{"criteria":"Resolves YES if the AAA national average price for a gallon of regular unleaded gasoline reported for Tuesday, November 3, 2026 is above $4.50 (that is, $4.501 or higher). Resolves NO if it is $4.50 or lower. If AAA's figure for that day cannot be confirmed, the EIA weekly U.S. regular retail gasoline price for the week of November 2, 2026 is used instead.","deadline":"2026-11-03","judgedBy":"AAA Gas Prices national average (gasprices.aaa.com) for November 3, 2026, with EIA weekly retail gasoline data as backup"},"whyItMatters":"Pump prices are the most visible cost of the Iran war and a daily reminder of it for voters heading to the midterm polls, and they feed straight into household budgets, delivery costs and the inflation numbers the Fed is fighting.","impact":[{"audience":"Commuters and families","effect":"Every 10 cents a gallon costs a household that burns 50 gallons a month about $5 a month. Higher gas and diesel prices have already cost Americans an extra $97 billion since the war began, more than $740 per household."},{"audience":"Truckers, farmers and delivery businesses","effect":"Diesel has set record highs above $6 a gallon. Fuel surcharges on freight and farm inputs rise with it and are passed on to grocery and retail prices."},{"audience":"Borrowers","effect":"Energy is driving headline inflation and the Fed's rate hikes. Gas above $4.50 into November makes another hike more likely, keeping mortgage and card rates high."},{"audience":"Travelers","effect":"Jet fuel costs have pushed airfares up 23.4% from a year ago, and Thanksgiving travel costs will track the same crude oil prices that set pump prices."},{"audience":"Retirement accounts","effect":"High fuel prices lift energy stocks but weigh on airlines, retailers and consumer spending, and they keep bond yields elevated through their effect on inflation."}],"versions":[{"version":1,"published":"2026-09-26T07:36:07Z","cutoff":"2026-09-26","probability":0.33,"range":[0.2,0.48],"call":"More likely to ease below $4.50 by Election Day","headline":"We put the chance the national average for regular gas is above $4.50 on Election Day, November 3, 2026, at 33%, as of September 26. Gas sits at $4.49 and Trump rejected Iran's plan to reopen Hormuz, but in 25 of the last 36 years pump prices fell between late September and early November.","lenses":{"psychology":["President Trump needs lower gas prices before November 3 and has said so: \"Right after the election, oil prices are going to be tumbling downward.\" Yet the Wall Street Journal, as reported by Reuters, says he rejected Iran's seven-day plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and told staff a renewed bombing campaign is likely. That choice reveals the ranking of his goals: not being seen to concede to Tehran outranks cheaper gas before the midterms. Accepting the deal would have been the one lever that could move pump prices quickly.","Iran's leverage is at its peak before a U.S. election, which gives it reason to keep offering a deal on its terms rather than escalate and harden U.S. opinion. It has briefed Saudi Arabia on an understanding with Oman about safe shipping routes through the strait, so some supply relief could arrive without a formal U.S. agreement.","The administration has already used its fast tools: a historic Strategic Petroleum Reserve release, eased fuel rules, a Venezuela oil deal and meetings with refiners. A federal gas tax holiday would cut 18.4 cents at once, but only Congress can pass it and it has not. What remains is jawboning, which does not move world crude prices."],"history":["Reference class: the EIA's weekly U.S. average for regular gasoline in every year from 1990 to 2025, comparing the week nearest September 22 with the week nearest November 2. Prices fell in 25 of 36 years, with a median change of minus 2.6%. They rose or held in 11 of 36, or 31%. Gas needs to be essentially unchanged from today's $4.49 to resolve YES, so the plain seasonal base rate is about 30%.","Closest analogue: this June. After U.S.-Iran talks produced a memorandum of understanding in early summer, the weekly average fell from $4.305 on June 1 to $3.777 by July 6, a drop of about 12% in five weeks. A credible deal can take 50 cents off the pump within this window. The analogy breaks today because the president has just rejected the offer on the table.","Second analogue: the 2022 midterms. After the Russia-driven spike, gas rose from about $3.65 in late September to $3.74 in early November as an OPEC+ output cut offset a pre-election reserve release. A supply shock can overpower the usual autumn decline. Where it breaks: 2026 prices are already near a record for the season, which leaves more room for retreat if crude eases."],"statistics":["Start at 31%, the share of years since 1990 in which gasoline rose or held from late September to early November.","Adjustments. Up 5 points because the peace plan rejection raises the chance of renewed strikes, and diesel and refining are in crisis, which props up gasoline too. Up 3 points for momentum: the EIA weekly average has risen from $4.071 to $4.478 in three weeks. Down 4 points because talks through Qatari mediators remain open and Iran and Oman have a safe-shipping understanding, so a partial reopening could still arrive. Down 2 points for the switch to cheaper winter-blend fuel and the administration's incentive to squeeze out any pre-election relief.","31 plus 5 plus 3 minus 4 minus 2 lands at 33%. For the $4 line many voters watch, the math is different: a drop of 49 cents or more in about five and a half weeks has happened in only about 2% of such windows since 1990, and even the June 2026 deal-driven slide took five weeks to cut about 53 cents. We put gas above $4.00 on Election Day at about 90%."]},"betweenTheLines":[{"type":"costly","signal":"Trump rejected Iran's offer to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days, with the midterms five weeks away.","read":"Turning down the fastest route to cheaper gas before an election is expensive, so it is a credible signal that the administration will accept high pump prices through November 3 rather than be seen to concede."},{"type":"tone","signal":"Trump now says oil will tumble \"right after the election\" and Vice President Vance declined to promise a return to $3 gas.","read":"The White House has shifted from promising relief soon to promising it after the vote. That is an implicit forecast from the people with the most information that prices will not fall much before November 3."},{"type":"omission","signal":"The Reuters account notes a U.S. official had called mediated talks \"positive and constructive\" before the Journal report, and the White House has not formally announced a rejection.","read":"Without an official no, the door is ajar. A quiet partial reopening through the Iran and Oman shipping arrangement could lower crude without anyone announcing a deal, which is our main path to NO."}],"baseRate":{"value":0.31,"label":"of years since 1990 in which gasoline rose or held from late September to early November (11 of 36)","n":36,"reference":"Computed by TPG from EIA weekly U.S. regular retail gasoline prices, 1990 to 2025, comparing the week nearest September 22 with the week nearest November 2 each year.","sourceIds":["s6"]},"analogues":[{"case":"June 2026 deal-driven slide","year":"2026","similarity":"Same war and same strait; U.S.-Iran talks produced a memorandum of understanding.","outcome":"The weekly average fell from $4.305 on June 1 to $3.777 on July 6, about 12%.","breaks":"Today the president has rejected the offer on the table, so the trigger for that slide is missing."},{"case":"2022 midterm gasoline","year":"2022","similarity":"A war-driven spike, a strategic reserve release and a president under pressure before midterms.","outcome":"Gas rose about 2.4% from late September to early November as an OPEC+ cut outweighed the reserve release.","breaks":"The 2022 spike was already months past its June peak; the 2026 price is near its high and physically tied to a closed shipping lane."},{"case":"2023 autumn decline","year":"2023","similarity":"Record-for-the-season September prices and a new Middle East war in October.","outcome":"Gas fell about 9.5% from late September to early November because supply was never disrupted.","breaks":"In 2023 oil flows through the Gulf continued; in 2026 they are sharply reduced."}],"scenarios":[{"name":"Stalemate holds prices up","probability":0.22,"trigger":"No deal, limited strikes, crude stays above $100 and refinery margins stay wide, keeping gas at or above $4.50."},{"name":"Renewed strikes spike prices","probability":0.11,"trigger":"Bombing resumes or Iran hits more Gulf energy infrastructure before the election, pushing Brent toward $120."},{"name":"Seasonal drift below $4.50","probability":0.47,"trigger":"No deal, but winter-blend fuel, lower demand and recovering tanker flows ease gas to between $4.00 and $4.50."},{"name":"Deal or partial reopening","probability":0.2,"trigger":"A phased reopening of the strait or a quiet shipping arrangement sends crude toward $85 and gas well below $4.30."}],"signposts":[{"signal":"Brent crude closes above $115 for a week","direction":"up","effect":"+20 points"},{"signal":"U.S. or Israeli strikes on Iran resume before November 3","direction":"up","effect":"+15 points"},{"signal":"Tanker traffic through Hormuz rises sharply or a formal reopening is announced","direction":"down","effect":"-20 points"},{"signal":"EIA weekly average falls below $4.35 by mid-October","direction":"down","effect":"-15 points"},{"signal":"Congress passes a federal gas tax holiday","direction":"down","effect":"-10 points"}],"market":null,"stats":[{"value":"$4.48","label":"national average on September 24, the highest ever for that time of year","sourceId":"s1"},{"value":"$4.56","label":"the 2026 high, set May 21","sourceId":"s2"},{"value":"50%","label":"rise in gas prices since the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran on February 28","sourceId":"s3"},{"value":"$97 billion","label":"extra paid for gas and diesel since the war started, per Brown University","sourceId":"s4"},{"value":"$3.1938","label":"national average one year earlier, in September 2025","sourceId":"s5"},{"value":"$4.478","label":"EIA weekly average on September 21, up from $4.157 two weeks earlier","sourceId":"s6"}],"sources":[{"id":"s1","title":"National Average Climbs Nearly 5 Cents Since Last Week","publisher":"AAA Newsroom","url":"https://newsroom.aaa.com/2026/09/national-average-climbs-nearly-5-cents-since-last-week/","published":"2026-09-24","quote":"At $4.48 per gallon, this is the highest the national average has ever been for this time of year."},{"id":"s2","title":"Gas prices approach highest level this year with just weeks to go before midterms","publisher":"NBC News","url":"https://www.nbcnews.com/business/energy/gas-prices-trump-midterms-iran-rcna598523","published":"2026-09-18","quote":"the highest level hit earlier this year, on May 21, when the national average was $4.56 per gallon"},{"id":"s3","title":"Gas prices approach highest level this year: war impact","publisher":"NBC News","url":"https://www.nbcnews.com/business/energy/gas-prices-trump-midterms-iran-rcna598523","published":"2026-09-18","quote":"Gas prices overall have risen 50% nationwide since the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran on Feb. 28."},{"id":"s4","title":"Labor Day gas has never been this expensive. Trump is scrambling for answers","publisher":"CNN Business","url":"https://www.cnn.com/2026/09/04/business/oil-gas-trump-iran-diesel","published":"2026-09-04","quote":"Americans are paying an extra $97 billion since the Iran war started due to higher gas and diesel prices"},{"id":"s5","title":"National Average Jumps 13 Cents in One Week","publisher":"AAA","url":"https://gasprices.aaa.com/national-average-jumps-13-cents-in-one-week/","published":"2026-09-10","quote":"One Year Ago: $3.1938"},{"id":"s6","title":"U.S. Regular All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices (Weekly)","publisher":"U.S. Energy Information Administration","url":"https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=EMM_EPMR_PTE_NUS_DPG&f=W","published":"2026-09-22","quote":"2026-Sep 09/07 4.157 09/14 4.319 09/21 4.478"},{"id":"s7","title":"U.S. Regular Retail Gasoline Prices: June to July 2026","publisher":"U.S. Energy Information Administration","url":"https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=EMM_EPMR_PTE_NUS_DPG&f=W","published":"2026-09-22","quote":"06/01 4.305 06/08 4.146 06/15 4.052 06/22 3.914 06/29 3.831 2026-Jul 07/06 3.777"},{"id":"s8","title":"Iran awaits US move after WSJ report says Trump rejects peace plan","publisher":"Reuters via Cyprus Mail","url":"https://cyprus-mail.com/2026/09/26/iran-awaits-us-move-after-wsj-report-says-trump-rejects-peace-plan","published":"2026-09-26","quote":"he told his staff that he sees a renewed bombing campaign as likely"},{"id":"s9","title":"US CPI August 2026: Inflation Picks Up as Gas Prices Surge","publisher":"US Inflation Calculator (BLS data)","url":"https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/inflation/us-cpi-august-2026/100073342/","published":"2026-09-11","quote":"Airline fares surged 2.7% in August following a 2.2% increase in July and were 23.4% higher year over year."}],"hash":"9d2ac4d98afb8de0f4519883b90ee7837580e89f901ca1a2cde6f894a4797f5b"}],"faqs":[{"question":"Will gas prices go down before the election?","answer":"Probably a little, but not much. As of September 26, 2026, the national average is $4.49, and TPG puts the chance it is still above $4.50 on Election Day, November 3, at 33%. Gas usually eases in October, but President Trump rejected Iran's plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which keeps crude oil near $100 and limits any drop."},{"question":"Will gas be under $4 by Election Day 2026?","answer":"Unlikely. Falling from $4.49 to below $4.00 would take a drop of about 11% in roughly five and a half weeks, which has happened in only about 2% of comparable periods since 1990. Even the June 2026 slide that followed U.S.-Iran talks took five weeks to cut 53 cents. TPG puts gas above $4.00 on Election Day at about 90%."},{"question":"Why are gas prices so high right now?","answer":"The war with Iran that began on February 28 largely closed the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for world oil, and Iranian strikes have damaged Gulf energy infrastructure. Gas has risen about 50% since the war began, and diesel has passed $6 a gallon. September prices are the highest ever for the time of year, and gas was $3.19 a year ago."},{"question":"What is the highest gas price in 2026?","answer":"The national average peaked at $4.56 a gallon on May 21, 2026, according to AAA figures reported by NBC News. The all-time record is $5.01 from June 2022. On September 24, 2026, the average was $4.48, a record for late September, and it reached about $4.49 on September 25."}],"resolved":null,"url":"https://www.thepoliticalgroup.com/forecasts/will-gas-prices-be-above-4-50-on-election-day-2026"},{"slug":"will-us-inflation-hit-4-percent-november-2026","question":"Will U.S. inflation be 4% or higher in the November 2026 CPI report?","short":"CPI inflation 4%+ in November 2026","pillar":"domestic","topics":["economy","middle-east"],"created":"2026-09-26","resolution":{"criteria":"Resolves YES if the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U, all items, not seasonally adjusted) rose 4.0% or more over the 12 months ending November 2026, as published in its first release of November 2026 data (scheduled for December 10, 2026). Resolves NO if the published 12-month change is 3.9% or lower. If the release is delayed, the first official BLS publication of November 2026 CPI counts, and the question closes on that date.","deadline":"2026-12-10","judgedBy":"U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI news release (bls.gov/cpi)"},"whyItMatters":"Headline inflation drives Social Security and wage adjustments, the Fed's next rate moves and household budgets, and in 2026 it is being set largely by political decisions on the Iran war, the Strait of Hormuz and tariffs.","impact":[{"audience":"Households","effect":"Gasoline is up 27.4% from a year earlier and fuel oil is up 52%. A 4% reading would mean a typical basket of goods costs about $4 more for every $100 spent a year ago, with the steepest increases at the pump and on heating fuel this winter."},{"audience":"Borrowers and homebuyers","effect":"A 4% print would strengthen the case for further Fed hikes into 2027, keeping mortgage rates near 7% and pushing up credit card and auto loan rates."},{"audience":"Savers and retirees","effect":"Real returns on cash and bonds shrink as inflation rises. Retirees on fixed pensions lose purchasing power; Social Security cost-of-living adjustments are set from third-quarter inflation data, so a hot November mainly affects the following year's adjustment."},{"audience":"Workers","effect":"With core inflation at 2.4%, prices outside energy are rising slowly. A jump in headline inflation driven by fuel would land hardest on long-distance commuters and anyone in a fuel-heavy job."},{"audience":"Small businesses","effect":"Diesel and shipping surcharges raise input costs. Businesses that cannot pass them on see margins squeezed, and those that do feed the next month's inflation reading."}],"versions":[{"version":1,"published":"2026-09-26T07:36:07Z","cutoff":"2026-09-26","probability":0.45,"range":[0.3,0.6],"call":"Close call, slightly more likely to fall short","headline":"We put the chance that annual CPI inflation reads 4.0% or higher in the November 2026 report, due December 10, at 45%, as of September 26. Gasoline near $4.49 and a rejected Iran peace plan push toward 4%, but core inflation is only 2.4% and fall gas prices usually ease, leaving this a near coin flip.","lenses":{"psychology":["The decision that matters most here is not at the Fed but in the White House: whether to accept a deal that reopens the Strait of Hormuz. President Trump has said oil prices will be \"tumbling downward\" right after the election, and Reuters, citing the Wall Street Journal, reports he rejected Iran's seven-day plan and told staff a renewed bombing campaign is likely. His record since February has been to pair pressure on Iran with promises that relief is coming, while declining to accept Iranian terms that would read as a concession. That points to prices staying high through November rather than a sudden drop.","Iran's incentive is the mirror image: the strait is its main leverage, and it has offered to reopen it only in exchange for lifting the blockade, releasing frozen funds and waiving oil sanctions. Neither side can easily be seen to blink before the U.S. midterms on November 3, and the November CPI survey period falls around that date.","Congress and the administration have already used most of the fast tools: a historic Strategic Petroleum Reserve release has left the reserve at its lowest since the early 1980s, and a federal gas tax holiday needs a vote Congress has not taken. The remaining levers are slow."],"history":["Reference class: the change in the unadjusted CPI index from September to November in each year from 1990 to 2024. We need roughly a 0.13% rise over those two months if September prints 3.6% as markets expect. That happened in 19 of 35 years, or 54%. Since 2001, when fall gasoline declines became larger, it happened in only 8 of 24 years, or 33%. The years that cleared the bar, such as 2004, 2007, 2021 and 2022, were years when gasoline rose or held up in the fall.","Closest analogue: this year itself. When gas peaked at $4.56 on May 21, 2026, annual CPI inflation peaked at 4.2% in May. Gas is back near $4.49. The analogy breaks on the base: the index rose about 0.8% between May and November 2025, so the same gas price produces a lower annual rate in November than it did in May.","Second analogue: 1990, when the Gulf crisis kept oil high into the fall and the CPI rose 0.83% from September to November. Where it breaks: core inflation was far higher in 1990, while today core CPI is 2.4%, the lowest since March 2021, so almost all the pressure has to come from energy."],"statistics":["The arithmetic. The November 2025 index was 324.122, unusually below September 2025 after the shutdown-era gap in BLS data. A 4.0% reading, after rounding, needs a November 2026 index of about 336.93. August 2026 stood at 334.98, so prices must rise about 0.58% over three months before seasonal adjustment. If September prints 3.6%, the index is near 336.5, and October and November together must add only about 0.13%.","Start from a blended base rate of 45%, between the 54% full-sample and 33% post-2001 frequencies. Up 6 points because pump prices are already about 4% above September's $4.30 average, which lifts October mechanically, and because the Iran peace plan was rejected. Down 6 points for soft core inflation and the usual autumn decline in gasoline demand and the switch to cheaper winter-blend fuel.","45 plus 6 minus 6 lands at 45%. A Hormuz reopening before mid-November would cut this to roughly 20%; renewed strikes that lift Brent toward $120, a level HSBC and Goldman Sachs have flagged, would push it above 70%."]},"betweenTheLines":[{"type":"costly","signal":"Trump rejected Iran's seven-day plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and told staff renewed bombing is likely, per the Wall Street Journal as reported by Reuters.","read":"Turning down a deal that would cut gas prices weeks before a midterm is a costly signal: it shows the administration is prepared to carry high fuel prices through November. That raises the odds energy keeps adding to CPI through the survey period."},{"type":"sequencing","signal":"The November 2025 index (324.122) came in below September 2025 (324.800) after the shutdown blocked an October 2025 report.","read":"A soft base month mechanically lifts the November 2026 annual rate by roughly a quarter point relative to a normal year. Many headline forecasts that simply extrapolate the 3.4% August rate miss this."},{"type":"tone","signal":"Trump said oil will be \"tumbling downward\" right after the election, and Vice President Vance declined to promise a return to $3 gas.","read":"The White House is managing expectations for relief after November, not before it. That wording concedes the next two monthly CPI reports will carry high energy prices."}],"baseRate":{"value":0.45,"label":"blended share of years (1990 to 2024) in which CPI rose enough from September to November to clear the bar","n":35,"reference":"Computed by TPG from monthly CPI-U index levels (not seasonally adjusted) for 1990 to 2024: 19 of 35 years had a September to November rise of at least 0.13%, and 8 of 24 years since 2001. We blend the two to 45%.","sourceIds":["s4"]},"analogues":[{"case":"The May 2026 inflation peak","year":"2026","similarity":"Same war, same Strait of Hormuz disruption, gasoline at $4.56 versus $4.49 today.","outcome":"Annual CPI inflation peaked at 4.2% in May before easing to 3.4% by July and August as gas fell back toward $4.","breaks":"November 2026 is compared with a higher November 2025 base than May was, so the same gas price yields a lower annual rate."},{"case":"Gulf crisis oil shock","year":"1990","similarity":"A Persian Gulf conflict kept oil prices high through the fall of an election year.","outcome":"The CPI rose 0.83% from September to November 1990, well above what this question requires.","breaks":"Core inflation was far higher in 1990; today core is 2.4% and the push is almost entirely energy."},{"case":"2022 gasoline peak","year":"2022","similarity":"Record gas prices after a war shock drove headline inflation well above core.","outcome":"Headline inflation peaked with gas in June and fell steadily as pump prices dropped in the second half of the year.","breaks":"In 2022 supply adjusted as the war settled into a stalemate; in 2026 the Strait of Hormuz is still largely shut and the peace track was just rejected."}],"scenarios":[{"name":"Energy stays high, 4.0% or above","probability":0.37,"trigger":"No Hormuz deal before the election, gasoline holds above $4.35 through November, and diesel and airfares keep rising."},{"name":"Renewed strikes spike oil","probability":0.08,"trigger":"Bombing resumes in early November or Iran hits more Gulf infrastructure, sending Brent toward $120 during the survey period."},{"name":"Drift to 3.6% to 3.9%","probability":0.37,"trigger":"Crude stays near $100 but seasonal gasoline declines and soft core inflation hold the annual rate just under 4%."},{"name":"Hormuz reopens, inflation falls","probability":0.18,"trigger":"A phased deal reopens the strait in October, crude falls toward $85 and gasoline drops below $4.10 by mid-November."}],"signposts":[{"signal":"September CPI on October 14 at 3.7% or higher","direction":"up","effect":"+10 points"},{"signal":"September CPI at 3.5% or lower","direction":"down","effect":"-10 points"},{"signal":"AAA national average above $4.50 on November 1","direction":"up","effect":"+12 points"},{"signal":"A U.S.-Iran agreement reopens the Strait of Hormuz before November 1","direction":"down","effect":"-25 points"},{"signal":"Congress passes a federal gas tax holiday before mid-November","direction":"down","effect":"-8 points"}],"market":{"source":"Kalshi","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxcpiyoy","probability":0.4,"asOf":"2026-09-26","gapRead":"Kalshi's contract for November CPI above 3.9% is thin, with a 31 cent bid and 49 cent ask, so we use the 40% midpoint. We sit 5 points higher because the soft November 2025 base mechanically adds about a quarter point to the annual rate, and the rejected Iran peace plan lowers the chance of a pre-election drop in gas prices."},"stats":[{"value":"3.4%","label":"annual CPI inflation in August 2026, unchanged from July","sourceId":"s1"},{"value":"4.2%","label":"the 2026 peak so far, set in May when gas topped $4.56","sourceId":"s2"},{"value":"27.4%","label":"rise in gasoline prices over the year to August","sourceId":"s3"},{"value":"2.4%","label":"core inflation, the lowest since March 2021","sourceId":"s7"},{"value":"324.122","label":"November 2025 CPI index, the soft base the November 2026 reading is measured against","sourceId":"s4"},{"value":"$4.48","label":"national average gasoline on September 24, a record for the time of year","sourceId":"s5"}],"sources":[{"id":"s1","title":"Current U.S. Inflation Rates (2000-2026)","publisher":"US Inflation Calculator (BLS data)","url":"https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/inflation/current-inflation-rates/","published":"2026-09-11","quote":"The annual inflation rate in the United States was 3.4% for the 12 months ending August, the same as in July"},{"id":"s2","title":"Current U.S. Inflation Rates (2000-2026): monthly table","publisher":"US Inflation Calculator (BLS data)","url":"https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/inflation/current-inflation-rates/","published":"2026-09-11","quote":"2026 2.4 2.4 3.3 3.8 4.2 3.5 3.4 3.4"},{"id":"s3","title":"US CPI August 2026: Inflation Picks Up as Gas Prices Surge","publisher":"US Inflation Calculator (BLS data)","url":"https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/inflation/us-cpi-august-2026/100073342/","published":"2026-09-11","quote":"Gasoline prices surged 3.9% in August after falling 2.9% in July and were 27.4% higher than a year earlier"},{"id":"s4","title":"Consumer Price Index Data from 1913 to 2026","publisher":"US Inflation Calculator (BLS data)","url":"https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/inflation/consumer-price-index-and-annual-percent-changes-from-1913-to-2008/","published":"2026-09-11","quote":"324.122 324.054 321.943 2.7 2.6"},{"id":"s5","title":"National Average Climbs Nearly 5 Cents Since Last Week","publisher":"AAA Newsroom","url":"https://newsroom.aaa.com/2026/09/national-average-climbs-nearly-5-cents-since-last-week/","published":"2026-09-24","quote":"At $4.48 per gallon, this is the highest the national average has ever been for this time of year."},{"id":"s6","title":"Iran awaits US move after WSJ report says Trump rejects peace plan","publisher":"Reuters via Cyprus Mail","url":"https://cyprus-mail.com/2026/09/26/iran-awaits-us-move-after-wsj-report-says-trump-rejects-peace-plan","published":"2026-09-26","quote":"he told his staff that he sees a renewed bombing campaign as likely"},{"id":"s7","title":"US CPI August 2026: core inflation","publisher":"US Inflation Calculator (BLS data)","url":"https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/inflation/us-cpi-august-2026/100073342/","published":"2026-09-11","quote":"Core inflation rose 2.4% over the 12 months through August"},{"id":"s8","title":"Gas prices approach highest level this year with just weeks to go before midterms","publisher":"NBC News","url":"https://www.nbcnews.com/business/energy/gas-prices-trump-midterms-iran-rcna598523","published":"2026-09-18","quote":"when the national average was $4.56 per gallon"},{"id":"s9","title":"Labor Day gas has never been this expensive. Trump is scrambling for answers","publisher":"CNN Business","url":"https://www.cnn.com/2026/09/04/business/oil-gas-trump-iran-diesel","published":"2026-09-04","quote":"presided over a historic release of emergency oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve"}],"hash":"872c43427f94b8eccbb89ef513189ec419f71052c27e42b39c6443321338b32f"}],"faqs":[{"question":"Will inflation go up in the next CPI report?","answer":"Most likely, yes, for September. Markets expect the September 2026 CPI, due October 14, to show annual inflation near 3.6%, up from 3.4% in August, because gasoline rose sharply in September. TPG puts the chance that inflation reaches 4.0% or higher by the November report, due December 10, at 45%, as of September 26, 2026."},{"question":"Is inflation going to hit 4% again in 2026?","answer":"It is close to a coin flip. Annual CPI inflation already hit 4.2% in May 2026 when gas peaked at $4.56. Gas is back near $4.49 and Trump rejected an Iran plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which keeps energy high. But core inflation is only 2.4%, and gas usually eases in the fall. TPG puts a 4% November reading at 45%."},{"question":"Why is inflation high in 2026?","answer":"Mostly energy. The war with Iran that began February 28 largely closed the Strait of Hormuz, and gasoline was 27.4% higher in August than a year earlier. Diesel, jet fuel and heating oil are also up sharply, feeding into airfares and shipping. Tariffs add a smaller amount. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, is only 2.4%, the lowest since March 2021."},{"question":"When is the November 2026 CPI report released?","answer":"The Bureau of Labor Statistics is scheduled to publish November 2026 CPI on December 10, 2026, and September's on October 14. The November figure is compared with November 2025, a month that came in below September 2025 after the shutdown disrupted BLS data collection. That soft base makes a 4% reading easier to reach than the August rate of 3.4% suggests."}],"resolved":null,"url":"https://www.thepoliticalgroup.com/forecasts/will-us-inflation-hit-4-percent-november-2026"},{"slug":"will-a-new-farm-bill-become-law-in-2026","question":"Will a new five-year farm bill become law by December 31, 2026?","short":"New farm bill law in 2026","pillar":"domestic","topics":["us-congress","economy"],"created":"2026-09-26","resolution":{"criteria":"Resolves YES if, by 11:59 p.m. Eastern on December 31, 2026, the President signs (or Congress enacts over a veto) a multi-year farm bill reauthorization that rewrites most farm bill titles, such as the Agricultural Act of 2026, the Farm, Food, and National Security Act of 2026, or a negotiated compromise, whether as a standalone bill or inside a larger package. Resolves NO if no such law is enacted by that time. Another short-term extension of the 2018 farm bill does not count.","deadline":"2026-12-31","judgedBy":"Congress.gov bill status and White House signing statements"},"whyItMatters":"The farm bill sets the rules for crop supports, conservation, rural programs and SNAP, which fed an average of 42.1 million people a month in fiscal 2025.","impact":[{"audience":"SNAP households","effect":"The Senate bill would delay by one year the new rule that shifts part of SNAP benefit costs to states; Democrats want two years. How that fight ends shapes how many states tighten eligibility or cut back, on top of the more than 4 million people who have already lost access after the 2025 changes."},{"audience":"State budgets","effect":"State SNAP cost sharing is scheduled to begin in fiscal 2028. Without a farm bill delay, legislatures writing 2027 budgets must plan for the full shift."},{"audience":"Farmers and ranchers","effect":"Much of the commodity and crop insurance money already arrived in the 2025 tax and spending law, but hundreds of smaller programs, including dairy programs and specialty crop aid, still run on the extended 2018 law."},{"audience":"Drivers and ethanol producers","effect":"The Senate bill includes year-round sales of E15 gasoline, a long-sought change for corn states that would also affect summer fuel options at the pump."},{"audience":"Rural communities","effect":"Rural development, broadband and research programs cannot be modernized until a new bill passes, and another extension would keep them on 2018 rules into 2027."}],"versions":[{"version":1,"published":"2026-09-26T07:36:07Z","cutoff":"2026-09-26","probability":0.17,"range":[0.1,0.27],"call":"Unlikely this year; another extension is favored","headline":"We estimate a 17 percent chance that a new five-year farm bill becomes law by December 31, 2026. The biggest obstacle is the Senate: the bill cleared committee on a 12 to 11 party-line vote, and it needs at least seven Democrats to reach 60 votes while the parties remain split over SNAP cost shifts to states.","lenses":{"psychology":["Senate Agriculture Chair John Boozman and Majority Leader John Thune have tied their credibility to calling the one-year SNAP cost-shift delay a final offer. Thune told Democrats at the September 16 markup that 'your states are going to pay' unless they take the deal. Ranking Democrat Amy Klobuchar says finishing this year is a Democratic goal, yet she repeated the demand for a two-year delay. Each side has publicly framed a small difference in years as a test of resolve, which makes it hard to split without someone appearing to fold.","The election sets the incentives. If Democrats win a chamber, their incoming leaders gain from waiting until January to write the bill with more power, while outgoing Republicans gain from locking in their text in the lame duck. Farm-state Republicans need a win to show rural voters, but the most urgent farm money already went out in the 2025 tax and spending law, so the political cost of another extension is lower than in past cycles."],"history":["Reference class: farm bills pending when a Congress reached its final lame-duck session after the old law expired. In 2012 the bill stalled and was extended in the January 2013 fiscal cliff deal. In 2018 the bill was completed in the lame duck and signed December 20. In 2024 Congress again passed only an extension. That is 1 success in 3 tries, about 33 percent. The 2014 farm bill shows the other pattern: it became law February 7, 2014, more than a year after the 2008 law lapsed.","Closest analogue: 2018. A midterm lame duck, a Republican trifecta that had just lost the House, and a bitter SNAP fight (work requirements) that was resolved in late November by dropping the House's demands. Where it breaks: in 2018 the Senate had already passed its bill with broad bipartisan support before conference, so the lame duck only had to reconcile two passed texts. In 2026 the Senate bill has zero committee Democrats behind it and has not reached the floor."],"statistics":["Start from the lame-duck base rate of about 33 percent (1 of 3).","Subtract 10 points because the Senate bill lacks the bipartisan floor vote that made 2018 possible: it cleared committee 12 to 11 with every Democrat opposed, and only after Mitch McConnell returned for the vote. Subtract 8 points because the 2025 law already delivered the commodity and crop insurance increases, removing the usual urgency. Add 2 points because December 11 creates a must-pass vehicle that a negotiated farm bill could ride, and the SNAP gap (one year versus two) is narrow enough to split.","33 minus 10 minus 8 plus 2 lands at 17 percent, band 10 to 27 percent. Kalshi's contract on a farm bill becoming law before January 1, 2027 trades around 15 to 16 cents, close to our number."]},"betweenTheLines":[{"type":"personnel","signal":"The bill cleared committee on September 16 only because Mitch McConnell and Tommy Tuberville returned after missing the failed August 6 vote; Boozman said McConnell made a 'special effort' to get back.","read":"Republicans have zero margin even in committee. A party that needs every member present to report a bill has no cushion to absorb defections on the floor, where it needs at least seven Democrats."},{"type":"tone","signal":"Thune: 'Your states are going to pay.' Boozman called the one-year SNAP delay his final offer in August.","read":"Leaders are framing the choice as a threat to governors, not as an opening bid. That is a pressure play aimed at states, which suggests they expect the deal, if any, to come from governors leaning on Senate Democrats rather than from committee bargaining."},{"type":"omission","signal":"Klobuchar said finishing by year end is a Democratic goal but put no middle number on the table beyond the two-year delay.","read":"Not offering a counter such as 18 months signals Democrats are waiting to see the election result before negotiating. Watch for the first compromise number: it will likely come after November 3 or not at all."},{"type":"sequencing","signal":"Farm bill provisions and government funding both expire on December 11, and a farm group lobbyist said the bill is likely to be inserted into a larger must-pass package rather than move alone.","read":"The realistic YES path runs through the December funding deal. That links this question to the shutdown fight: if December ends in a clean short stopgap, the farm bill almost certainly gets another extension instead."}],"baseRate":{"value":0.33,"label":"of recent lame-duck sessions with an expired farm bill produced a new farm bill (1 of 3)","n":3,"reference":"TPG count of the 2012, 2018 and 2024 lame-duck sessions, each facing an expired or extended farm bill. Only 2018 produced a new law (signed December 20, 2018); 2012 and 2024 ended with extensions. The 2018 farm bill has since been extended three times.","sourceIds":["f6","f7"]},"analogues":[{"case":"2018 farm bill (Agriculture Improvement Act of 2018)","year":"2018","similarity":"Midterm lame duck, SNAP policy fight, Republican trifecta about to lose the House.","outcome":"Passed both chambers December 11 and 12 and signed December 20, 2018.","breaks":"The Senate had already passed a bipartisan bill, and the House dropped its SNAP work requirement push. In 2026 the Senate bill has no Democratic support yet."},{"case":"2012 farm bill failure","year":"2012","similarity":"Senate and House versions stuck over nutrition cuts heading into a lame duck.","outcome":"No new bill; a one-year extension rode on the fiscal cliff deal in January 2013, and the next farm bill waited until February 2014.","breaks":"In 2012 the House never passed its bill. In 2026 the House passed its bill 224 to 200, so a conference base exists."},{"case":"2024 farm bill extension","year":"2024","similarity":"House committee had a bill, the Senate did not act, and year-end leverage was reserved for spending.","outcome":"Another extension was folded into the December year-end package.","breaks":"The 2024 House bill never reached the floor; in 2026 both a House-passed bill and a Senate committee bill exist."}],"scenarios":[{"name":"Negotiated farm bill rides the December funding package","probability":0.1,"trigger":"A SNAP compromise (for example 18 months) after the election, then leaders attach the conferenced text to an omnibus or stopgap."},{"name":"Standalone farm bill passes Senate and House in December","probability":0.07,"trigger":"Enough Democrats accept a sweetened SNAP delay and Thune finds floor time in the lame duck."},{"name":"Another extension of the 2018 law into 2027","probability":0.63,"trigger":"Leaders punt the fight to the new Congress, extending programs alongside a December stopgap."},{"name":"Programs lapse at least briefly with no extension","probability":0.2,"trigger":"The December funding fight collapses or skips the farm bill, leaving some programs expired into January."}],"signposts":[{"signal":"Boozman and Klobuchar announce a SNAP cost-shift compromise","direction":"up","effect":"+15 points"},{"signal":"Year-end omnibus text includes full farm bill titles","direction":"up","effect":"+50 points"},{"signal":"Democrats win the House on November 3 and incoming leaders call for writing the bill in 2027","direction":"down","effect":"-6 points"},{"signal":"A December stopgap includes a one-year extension of the 2018 farm bill","direction":"down","effect":"to near 3 percent"}],"market":{"source":"Kalshi","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxfarmbill","probability":0.15,"asOf":"2026-09-26","gapRead":"Kalshi's 'Before Jan 1, 2027' contract last traded at 15 cents with a 15 to 16 cent spread. We are 2 points higher because a December must-pass vehicle exists and the SNAP gap is narrow, but we agree the default is another extension."},"stats":[{"value":"12-11","label":"party-line Senate Agriculture Committee vote that sent the bill to the floor","sourceId":"f2"},{"value":"224-200","label":"House vote passing its farm bill, the first House floor passage since 2018","sourceId":"f1"},{"value":"7","label":"Democratic votes, at minimum, needed to reach 60 in the Senate","sourceId":"f3"},{"value":"3","label":"times the 2018 farm bill has already been extended","sourceId":"f7"},{"value":"42.1 million","label":"average monthly SNAP participants in fiscal 2025","sourceId":"f5"},{"value":"4 million","label":"people who have already lost SNAP access after the 2025 law's changes","sourceId":"f4"}],"sources":[{"id":"f1","title":"Time to Finish the Job: 2026 Farm Bill","publisher":"American Farm Bureau Federation","url":"https://www.fb.org/intel/policy/time-to-finish-the-job-2026-farm-bill","published":"2026-09-08","quote":"which passed the House floor on a bipartisan vote of 224-200, marking the first time a farm bill passed the House floor since 2018"},{"id":"f2","title":"Senate Agriculture Committee Advances 2026 Farm Bill","publisher":"Western Ag Network","url":"https://westernagnetwork.com/senate-agriculture-committee-advances-2026-farm-bill","published":"2026-09-16","quote":"The committee voted 12-11 to advance the legislation along party lines."},{"id":"f3","title":"Farm Bill 2.0 Clears Senate Ag, but GOP Flare-Up and Election Loom","publisher":"Ag Policy & Markets Daily (Ag Bull Trading)","url":"https://www.agbull.com/farm-bill-2-0-clears-senate-ag-but-gop-flare-up-and-election-loom/","published":"2026-09-16","quote":"Republicans hold 53 Senate seats, leaving them at least seven votes short of the usual 60-vote threshold"},{"id":"f4","title":"2026 Farm Bill Fails to Advance Out of Senate Agriculture Committee","publisher":"Civil Eats","url":"https://civileats.com/2026/08/10/2026-farm-bill-fails-to-advance-out-of-senate-agriculture-committee/","published":"2026-08-10","quote":"have already led to more than 4 million people losing access to food aid."},{"id":"f5","title":"Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP)","publisher":"USDA Economic Research Service","url":"https://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/food-nutrition-assistance/supplemental-nutrition-assistance-program-snap","published":"2026-08-31","quote":"SNAP served 42.1 million participants per month in FY 2025 on average"},{"id":"f6","title":"Agriculture Improvement Act of 2018","publisher":"Wikipedia","url":"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agriculture_Improvement_Act_of_2018","published":"2026-09-26","quote":"On December 20, 2018, it was signed into law by President Donald Trump"},{"id":"f7","title":"Time to Finish the Job: 2026 Farm Bill","publisher":"American Farm Bureau Federation","url":"https://www.fb.org/intel/policy/time-to-finish-the-job-2026-farm-bill","published":"2026-09-08","quote":"the 2018 farm bill has been extended three times"},{"id":"f8","title":"Agricultural Act of 2014","publisher":"Wikipedia","url":"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agricultural_Act_of_2014","published":"2026-09-26","quote":"President Barack Obama signed the bill into law on February 7, 2014."},{"id":"f9","title":"Upcoming Congressional Fiscal Policy Deadlines","publisher":"Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget","url":"https://www.crfb.org/blogs/upcoming-congressional-fiscal-policy-deadlines","published":"2026-09-10","quote":"December 11, 2026 Government Funding expires Certain Veterans' Affairs Health Care Extenders Expire Farm Bill Provisions Expire"}],"hash":"03d56ec2a0582b3583957ce4fc649cc634f5d951a089160ca896eb90e05b5615"}],"faqs":[{"question":"Will the farm bill pass in 2026?","answer":"Probably not as a full new law. TPG estimates a 17 percent chance a new five-year farm bill is signed by December 31, 2026. The House passed its version 224 to 200, but the Senate bill cleared committee on a 12 to 11 party-line vote and needs at least seven Democrats to overcome a filibuster. Another extension is the likeliest outcome."},{"question":"When does the farm bill expire?","answer":"The 2018 farm bill has been extended three times. Its current extension runs through December 11, 2026, the same day government funding expires under the September stopgap. Congress must pass a new bill or another extension by then, or some programs lapse."},{"question":"What is holding up the farm bill?","answer":"SNAP. The 2025 tax and spending law shifts part of SNAP benefit costs to states. The Senate farm bill delays that shift by one year; Democrats want two years. Republicans call one year their final offer, and without a compromise the bill cannot get the 60 Senate votes it needs."},{"question":"Does the farm bill affect food stamps?","answer":"Yes. The nutrition title governs SNAP, which served an average of 42.1 million people a month in fiscal 2025, and it is the largest part of farm bill spending. The current bill would change when states start paying a share of benefits, which influences how many states tighten eligibility."}],"resolved":null,"url":"https://www.thepoliticalgroup.com/forecasts/will-a-new-farm-bill-become-law-in-2026"},{"slug":"will-james-talarico-win-the-texas-senate-race","question":"Will Democrat James Talarico defeat Ken Paxton in the 2026 Texas U.S. Senate race?","short":"Talarico wins Texas Senate race","pillar":"domestic","topics":["elections-2026","us-congress"],"created":"2026-09-26","resolution":{"criteria":"Resolves YES if James Talarico (D) receives the most votes in the November 3, 2026 general election for the Texas U.S. Senate seat, as shown by the Texas Secretary of State's certified canvass or, before certification, a race call by the Associated Press that is not reversed. Resolves NO if Ken Paxton (R) or any other candidate wins.","deadline":"2026-12-31","judgedBy":"Texas Secretary of State certified results and Associated Press race call"},"whyItMatters":"Texas is one of the seats Democrats most likely need to reach 51, so this race can decide which party controls the Senate, confirms judges and sets the agenda for 2027 and 2028.","impact":[{"audience":"Texas voters","effect":"A Talarico win would give Texas its first Democratic U.S. senator elected since 1988 and split the state's Senate delegation. A Paxton win keeps both seats Republican."},{"audience":"The national balance of power","effect":"Democrats need a net gain of four seats. A Texas pickup would make that math much easier; a Paxton win forces Democrats to sweep Maine, Ohio, Alaska and North Carolina."},{"audience":"Border and immigration policy","effect":"The seat carries weight on border funding and enforcement votes. A Democratic senator from the largest border state would change the politics of any immigration deal."},{"audience":"Energy workers and drivers","effect":"With gas and diesel prices high because of the Iran war, the winner will vote on war powers and energy measures that affect Texas oil and gas jobs and pump prices."}],"versions":[{"version":1,"published":"2026-09-26T07:36:07Z","cutoff":"2026-09-26","probability":0.52,"range":[0.4,0.63],"call":"True toss up, slight Talarico edge","headline":"As of September 26, 2026, we give Democrat James Talarico a 52 percent chance of beating Republican Ken Paxton for the Texas Senate seat. Recent polls are within one point and Paxton is winning only 84 percent of Republicans, but Texas has not elected a Democratic senator since 1988 and Democrats have trailed their polls there before.","lenses":{"psychology":["This race is a test of whether party loyalty beats candidate doubts. Paxton, the state attorney general, beat Sen. John Cornyn in a bruising primary runoff, and part of Cornyn's coalition has not come home. In the Texas Southern University poll only 84 percent of Republicans back Paxton, while 7 percent choose Talarico. Late-deciding Republicans usually return to their party, so the key question is how many of those holdouts stay away or cross over.","Talarico, a state representative, runs as a faith-forward Democrat aimed at suburban and younger voters. The Emerson poll shows a sharp age split: voters under 50 favor him by 15 points, voters over 50 favor Paxton by 11. Midterm electorates skew older, so Talarico's path depends on unusually strong turnout among younger Texans, which the national enthusiasm gap currently supports."],"history":["The reference class is Texas Senate races since 1990: Democrats lost all 13, and the last Democrat elected was Lloyd Bentsen in 1988. Big money has not broken the streak. Beto O'Rourke raised nearly $45 million more than Ted Cruz in 2018 and still lost by 2.6 points, and Colin Allred outraised Cruz by about $21 million in 2024 and lost by 8.5.","The closest analogue is O'Rourke in 2018, a charismatic Democrat against a polarizing Republican in a Trump midterm. The analogy breaks in three ways that favor Talarico: the national environment is now worse for Republicans than in 2018, the Republican nominee is struggling to unify his own party, and Hispanic voters who swung right in 2024 are now breaking against the president, with Emerson finding 58 percent of Texas Hispanic voters disapprove of him."],"statistics":["Start from the Texas prior. Zero Democratic wins in 13 tries since 1990, smoothed with the rule of succession, gives about 7 percent. That prior reflects ordinary years; it is weak evidence against a race where current polling is tied. So we give the polls most of the weight: the Texas Southern poll of 1,800 likely voters has Talarico up 47 to 46, and the August Emerson poll had Paxton up 47 to 46. A race tied in late September is close to a coin flip, about 50 percent.","Adjust up about 5 points for the national environment near D+8 and Paxton's weak consolidation. Adjust up 1 point for Talarico's money edge, heavily discounted given the O'Rourke and Allred record. Adjust down about 4 points because Texas Democrats finished behind their final polls in 2020 and 2024 and undecided Republicans tend to come home in a state that voted for Trump by double digits. Net: 52 percent. The Kalshi market at 60 percent is more bullish on Talarico than we are."]},"betweenTheLines":[{"type":"costly","signal":"Talarico has raised a cumulative $72.0 million against $16.8 million for Paxton's campaign.","read":"Small-dollar money at this scale is a costly signal of enthusiasm, but Texas history shows it buys visibility, not victory. The more telling number is that Paxton relies heavily on joint fundraising committees, meaning national Republicans are underwriting him."},{"type":"tone","signal":"Cook moved the race to Toss Up on August 20 and Sabato's Crystal Ball followed on August 26; Inside Elections still rates it Lean Republican.","read":"Raters moving a Texas Senate seat to Toss Up is rare. The holdout rating reflects the same doubt we build in: that Republican voters will consolidate late."},{"type":"omission","signal":"In the Texas Southern poll, both nominees are underwater, with Paxton at 43 percent favorable and 55 percent unfavorable.","read":"Paxton's campaign has little room to lift his own image, so expect Republican outside groups to spend on defining Talarico instead. The late ad mix will reveal whether Republicans think they can win on persuasion or only on partisanship."}],"baseRate":{"value":0.07,"label":"smoothed rate of Democratic wins in Texas U.S. Senate races since 1990 (0 of 13)","n":13,"reference":"Computed by TPG: Democrats lost all 13 Texas U.S. Senate elections from 1990 through 2024, including the 1993 special, per Ballotpedia's note that the last Democratic winner was Lloyd Bentsen in 1988. Smoothed with Laplace's rule of succession, (0+1)/(13+2).","sourceIds":["u5"]},"analogues":[{"case":"O'Rourke against Cruz","year":"2018","similarity":"A well-funded Democrat against a polarizing Republican in Trump's first midterm, with polls showing a close race.","outcome":"Cruz won by 2.6 points.","breaks":"The 2026 national environment is more Democratic, Paxton is losing about one in six Republicans, and the incumbent advantage belongs to no one because the seat is open."},{"case":"Allred against Cruz","year":"2024","similarity":"Democrat outraised the Republican by a wide margin and polls looked competitive.","outcome":"Cruz won by 8.5 points.","breaks":"2024 was a presidential year with Trump on the ballot driving Republican turnout; midterms usually favor the party out of the White House."},{"case":"Bentsen's last Democratic win","year":"1988","similarity":"The last time Texas elected a Democratic senator.","outcome":"Bentsen won reelection while also on the national ticket.","breaks":"Texas then had a large conservative Democratic base that no longer exists."}],"scenarios":[{"name":"Crossover win: Talarico by 3 or more","probability":0.22,"trigger":"Cornyn-aligned Republicans and suburban independents reject Paxton while young and Hispanic turnout surges."},{"name":"Narrow Talarico win","probability":0.3,"trigger":"The race stays tied and the national environment decides it by a point or two."},{"name":"Republican homecoming: Paxton by 1 to 4","probability":0.33,"trigger":"Undecided Republicans return in October as outside Republican spending defines Talarico."},{"name":"Polling miss repeats: Paxton by 5 or more","probability":0.15,"trigger":"Polls overstate Democrats as in 2020 and 2024, and the older midterm electorate favors Paxton."}],"signposts":[{"signal":"Paxton's share of Republicans in quality polls rises above 90 percent","direction":"down","effect":"-8 points"},{"signal":"Prominent Cornyn-aligned Texas Republicans stay neutral or back Talarico","direction":"up","effect":"+3 points"},{"signal":"Early vote turnout in Harris, Dallas, Travis and Bexar counties runs ahead of 2018","direction":"up","effect":"+4 points"},{"signal":"National Republican groups add major new Texas reservations in October","direction":"down","effect":"-3 points"}],"market":{"source":"Kalshi","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/senatetx","probability":0.6,"asOf":"2026-09-26","gapRead":"The market is 8 points more confident in Talarico than we are. Traders lean on the tie in polls and the national tide; we give more weight to Texas's record of Democrats underperforming their polls and to Republican consolidation in the final weeks."},"stats":[{"value":"47% to 46%","label":"Talarico over Paxton, Texas Southern poll of 1,800 likely voters","sourceId":"u1"},{"value":"84%","label":"of Republicans backing Paxton, versus 99% of Democrats for Talarico","sourceId":"u2"},{"value":"$72.0M vs $16.8M","label":"cumulative money raised, Talarico vs Paxton campaigns","sourceId":"u3"},{"value":"1988","label":"last time Texas elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate","sourceId":"u5"},{"value":"2.6 pts","label":"O'Rourke's 2018 loss despite outraising Cruz by nearly $45 million","sourceId":"u4"},{"value":"15 pts","label":"Talarico's lead among Texas voters under 50 in the Emerson poll","sourceId":"u7"}],"sources":[{"id":"u1","title":"Talarico holds narrow lead over Paxton in latest Texas Senate poll","publisher":"FOX 7 Austin","url":"https://www.fox7austin.com/election/james-talarico-ken-paxton-texas-us-senate-tsu-poll","published":"2026-09-22","quote":"James Talarico leads Ken Paxton 47% to 46% in a new Texas Senate poll."},{"id":"u2","title":"Talarico holds narrow lead over Paxton in latest Texas Senate poll","publisher":"FOX 7 Austin","url":"https://www.fox7austin.com/election/james-talarico-ken-paxton-texas-us-senate-tsu-poll","published":"2026-09-22","quote":"While 99% of Democrats said they would vote for Talarico, just 84% of Republicans said they would vote for Paxton."},{"id":"u3","title":"Follow the money pouring into the Texas U.S. Senate race","publisher":"The Texas Tribune","url":"https://www.texastribune.org/2026/07/20/texas-senate-talarico-paxton-fundraising-spending-money-donors/","published":"2026-07-20","quote":"raising a cumulative $72.0 million compared to $16.8 million by Paxton"},{"id":"u4","title":"Follow the money pouring into the Texas U.S. Senate race","publisher":"The Texas Tribune","url":"https://www.texastribune.org/2026/07/20/texas-senate-talarico-paxton-fundraising-spending-money-donors/","published":"2026-07-20","quote":"raised nearly $45 million more than Cruz in 2018 but still lost by 2.6 percentage points"},{"id":"u5","title":"United States Senate election in Texas, 2026","publisher":"Ballotpedia","url":"https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_election_in_Texas,_2026","published":"2026-09-26","quote":"The last Democrat to win election to the U.S. Senate from Texas was Lloyd Bentsen (D) in 1988."},{"id":"u6","title":"Texas 2026 Poll: Paxton and Talarico Deadlocked in U.S. Senate Race","publisher":"Emerson College Polling","url":"https://emersoncollegepolling.com/texas-2026-poll-paxton-and-talarico/","published":"2026-08-13","quote":"47% support Republican Ken Paxton, while 46% support Democrat James Talarico."},{"id":"u7","title":"Texas 2026 Poll: Paxton and Talarico Deadlocked in U.S. Senate Race","publisher":"Emerson College Polling","url":"https://emersoncollegepolling.com/texas-2026-poll-paxton-and-talarico/","published":"2026-08-13","quote":"voters under 50 favor Talarico by 15 points, 53% to 38%, while those over 50 break for Paxton by 11 points"}],"hash":"df140714bed19cf5fa7013ac71c909967ed02b89bb9c99eaf77fcf1ba2ba7018"}],"faqs":[{"question":"Who is winning the Texas Senate race in 2026?","answer":"As of September 26, 2026, the Texas Senate race between Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton is a toss up. A Texas Southern University poll of 1,800 likely voters has Talarico ahead 47 to 46 percent, and an August Emerson poll had Paxton up 47 to 46. We give Talarico a 52 percent chance."},{"question":"Can a Democrat win a Senate race in Texas?","answer":"It has not happened since Lloyd Bentsen won in 1988. Beto O'Rourke came within 2.6 points in 2018 despite a large money advantage. In 2026 James Talarico has a real chance because the national environment favors Democrats and Ken Paxton is winning only about 84 percent of Republicans in recent polling."},{"question":"How much money has James Talarico raised?","answer":"Through June 2026, James Talarico's campaign had raised a cumulative $72.0 million, compared with $16.8 million for Ken Paxton's campaign, according to the Texas Tribune. Money has not been decisive in recent Texas Senate races, though: Democrats outraised Ted Cruz in both 2018 and 2024 and lost both times."},{"question":"Why did Ken Paxton beat John Cornyn?","answer":"Ken Paxton, the Texas attorney general, defeated Sen. John Cornyn in the May 26, 2026 Republican primary runoff. The divisive contest appears to have left a residue: in the September Texas Southern University poll, only 84 percent of Republicans backed Paxton, while 7 percent chose Democrat James Talarico."}],"resolved":null,"url":"https://www.thepoliticalgroup.com/forecasts/will-james-talarico-win-the-texas-senate-race"},{"slug":"will-the-clarity-act-become-law-in-2026","question":"Will the CLARITY Act crypto market structure bill become law in 2026?","short":"CLARITY Act law in 2026","pillar":"domestic","topics":["us-congress","economy"],"created":"2026-09-26","resolution":{"criteria":"Resolves YES if, by 11:59 p.m. Eastern on December 31, 2026, the President signs into law (or Congress enacts over a veto) the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (H.R. 3633) or any successor bill that establishes a federal market structure framework for digital assets dividing oversight between the SEC and the CFTC, whether standalone or inside a larger package. Resolves NO otherwise.","deadline":"2026-12-31","judgedBy":"Congress.gov bill status and White House signing announcements"},"whyItMatters":"The CLARITY Act would write the first federal rulebook for crypto trading platforms, tokens and developers, affecting the roughly one in 11 U.S. adults who own crypto and every exchange that serves them.","impact":[{"audience":"Crypto investors","effect":"About 9 percent of U.S. adults own crypto. Without a law, their protections rest on SEC and CFTC guidance and rules that a future administration can reverse, as the SEC chair himself has acknowledged."},{"audience":"Exchanges and crypto companies","effect":"Platforms would get a registration path and a clear line between SEC and CFTC jurisdiction. Without it they keep operating under agency rulemaking such as the SEC's proposed Regulation Crypto Assets."},{"audience":"Software developers","effect":"The bill's decentralized finance section addresses whether people who write non-custodial code can be treated as money transmitters, one of the provisions that divided senators."},{"audience":"Stablecoin users and banks","effect":"The bill's limits on stablecoin yield and rewards pit banks against crypto firms; failure leaves the 2025 GENIUS Act stablecoin law as the only statute on the books."},{"audience":"Voters and ethics watchers","effect":"Ethics provisions aimed at senior officials holding crypto business ties, including the President's family ventures, were a central sticking point, so the outcome also sets precedent on conflict-of-interest rules."}],"versions":[{"version":1,"published":"2026-09-26T07:36:07Z","cutoff":"2026-09-26","probability":0.06,"range":[0.02,0.12],"call":"Very unlikely before the new Congress","headline":"We put the chance the CLARITY Act becomes law by December 31, 2026 at 6 percent. The Senate's September 15 attempt to start debate failed 49 to 50, short of even a majority, with every Democrat and three Republicans opposed. Reviving it needs at least 10 more votes during a crowded post-election lame duck.","lenses":{"psychology":["The sponsors, Tim Scott, John Boozman and Cynthia Lummis, forced a vote on a 'last, best and final' draft released two days earlier. Pushing a vote you expect to lose is often about assigning blame before an election rather than passing a law. Lummis warned colleagues not to hand the future to someone else, which is the language of a closing argument, not of a deal about to close.","The hardest issue is one no negotiator can trade away: ethics language aimed at senior officials' crypto businesses, which reaches the President's family ventures. Democrats cannot be seen voting for a bill without it, and the White House cannot be seen accepting limits aimed at the President. Once the House changes hands, as many in the industry expect, Democrats also gain from waiting: they would have a say over any bill in 2027, while their Senate Banking leader could be a longtime crypto skeptic."],"history":["Reference class: high-profile bills whose Senate cloture effort failed in the final months of a Congress and then got a lame-duck revival. Our list: Don't Ask, Don't Tell repeal (2010, enacted December 22, 2010), the DREAM Act (2010, failed again in December), the Paycheck Fairness Act (2010, failed), the Cybersecurity Act of 2012 (failed again in November), Keystone XL approval (2014, failed), the USA FREEDOM Act (2014, failed, passed in the next Congress) and the 2024 child tax credit and business tax bill (failed, not revived). That is 1 success in 7, about 14 percent.","Closest analogue: Don't Ask, Don't Tell repeal, the lone success. Where it breaks: repeal had majority support at every step and was split into a clean standalone bill that could draw a handful of Republicans. CLARITY failed to win even a simple majority, three Republicans voted no on the merits, and its core dispute (ethics tied to the sitting President) cannot be split off without losing Democrats. The GENIUS Act, the 2025 stablecoin law, is the best counterexample: its first cloture vote failed, and it still became law after quick changes. But that recovery came in the spring of an off year, not in the last weeks of a Congress."],"statistics":["Start from the revival base rate of about 14 percent (1 of 7).","Subtract 6 points because the bill fell short of a simple majority, unlike the successful analogue, and needs at least 10 more senators. Subtract 4 points because even a Senate win is not enough: the House must then pass the Senate's 600-plus-page text in the same few December weeks, when appropriations, the defense bill and a possible war funding package compete for floor time.","Add 2 points for the GENIUS Act precedent: the 2025 stablecoin bill lost its first cloture vote 48 to 49 and passed 11 days later once Democrats won changes, so a failed first vote on crypto legislation is not always final.","14 minus 6 minus 4 plus 2 lands at 6 percent, band 2 to 12 percent. Kalshi prices 'Before Jan 1, 2027' at about 8 cents. We are 2 points lower because we see no scheduled vote and no public movement on the ethics text since September 15."]},"betweenTheLines":[{"type":"cheap","signal":"Sen. Thom Tillis switched his vote to no at the end of the roll call so he could file a motion to reconsider, keeping the bill technically alive.","read":"This is a procedural option that costs nothing. It preserves a second vote but says nothing about new supporters. A real revival signal would be a named Democrat committing to yes."},{"type":"costly","signal":"Republicans Jerry Moran, Susan Collins and Josh Hawley voted no alongside every Democrat.","read":"Collins is in a competitive reelection, and all three have records of breaking with party leaders. Their no votes show the ethics and consumer issues cut across party lines, so the problem is not just Democratic leverage. Leadership cannot fix it with pressure on Democrats alone."},{"type":"sequencing","signal":"The final substitute with 126 changes requested by Democrats was released late September 13 and put to a vote September 15.","read":"A 48-hour turnaround on a text of this size left no room for Democrats to say yes. Forcing the vote anyway suggests leaders wanted a recorded outcome before the midterms more than they wanted a law this year."},{"type":"omission","signal":"Industry coverage after the vote turned immediately to SEC and CFTC rulemaking, including the SEC's proposed Regulation Crypto Assets, rather than to a lame-duck whip count.","read":"The industry is hedging toward the agencies, which reduces the lobbying intensity a lame-duck revival would need. When the main backers start planning around a bill, it is rarely coming back within weeks."}],"baseRate":{"value":0.14,"label":"of recent high-profile bills blocked in Senate cloture late in a Congress were enacted in the lame duck (1 of 7)","n":7,"reference":"TPG list of lame-duck revival attempts after failed Senate cloture efforts: Don't Ask, Don't Tell repeal 2010 (enacted), DREAM Act 2010, Paycheck Fairness Act 2010, Cybersecurity Act of 2012, Keystone XL approval 2014, USA FREEDOM Act 2014 and the Tax Relief for American Families and Workers Act 2024 (all not enacted in that Congress). The one success is documented in the linked record.","sourceIds":["c7"]},"analogues":[{"case":"Don't Ask, Don't Tell repeal","year":"2010","similarity":"Blocked in the Senate in the fall of a midterm year, revived in the lame duck.","outcome":"Standalone bill passed the Senate December 18 and was signed December 22, 2010.","breaks":"It had majority support throughout and a clean, severable policy. CLARITY lost 49 to 50 and its sticking point cannot be severed."},{"case":"GENIUS Act stablecoin law","year":"2025","similarity":"Crypto legislation in the same Congress whose first Senate cloture vote failed 48 to 49 in May 2025.","outcome":"Passed cloture 11 days later after Democrats won changes, then passed the Senate 68 to 30 and became law in July 2025.","breaks":"That turnaround happened with months left in the session and no election looming, and enough Democrats accepted it without ethics limits on the President. On CLARITY, three Republicans also defected and the House would have to act again in a short lame duck."},{"case":"Cybersecurity Act of 2012","year":"2012","similarity":"Complex, industry-backed regulatory bill that failed cloture in the summer of an election year with a promise to return after the election.","outcome":"Failed again in the November lame duck; pieces moved later in other vehicles.","breaks":"It lacked a presidential conflict-of-interest dimension, which makes CLARITY's revival even harder."}],"scenarios":[{"name":"Lame-duck ethics deal, cloture reconsidered and won, House clears Senate text, signed","probability":0.05,"trigger":"A named group of 10 or more Democrats announces support after a revised ethics section."},{"name":"Market structure text attached to a year-end must-pass package","probability":0.01,"trigger":"Leaders fold a slimmed version into an omnibus or defense bill."},{"name":"Senate passes in December but the House does not finish by December 31","probability":0.05,"trigger":"Late Senate action collides with the end of the session."},{"name":"No further action; bill dies with the 119th Congress","probability":0.89,"trigger":"Default path as the industry shifts to SEC and CFTC rulemaking and waits for the next Congress."}],"signposts":[{"signal":"Thune schedules a second cloture vote for the lame duck","direction":"up","effect":"+5 points"},{"signal":"Ruben Gallego and other Democrats announce a revised ethics agreement with the White House's acceptance","direction":"up","effect":"+10 points"},{"signal":"Democrats win the House on November 3","direction":"down","effect":"-2 points"},{"signal":"Sponsors say publicly they will reintroduce in 2027","direction":"down","effect":"to 1 or 2 percent"}],"market":{"source":"Kalshi","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxcryptostructure","probability":0.08,"asOf":"2026-09-26","gapRead":"Kalshi's 'Will the Clarity Act become law? Before Jan 1, 2027' traded between 7.5 and 8 cents. We are 2 points lower because a law needs both a Senate reversal and House passage inside a crowded lame duck, and nothing public has moved since the vote."},"stats":[{"value":"49-50","label":"Senate vote on September 15 that failed to start debate, short of a majority and of 60","sourceId":"c1"},{"value":"11","label":"votes short of the 60 needed for cloture","sourceId":"c6"},{"value":"294-134","label":"House vote passing the CLARITY Act in July 2025","sourceId":"c2"},{"value":"600","label":"pages of negotiated compromise, more than, that still failed","sourceId":"c3"},{"value":"9%","label":"of U.S. adults who say they own crypto","sourceId":"c4"},{"value":"$200 million","label":"spent by crypto-backed political groups in the 2024 cycle, more than","sourceId":"c5"}],"sources":[{"id":"c1","title":"Crypto Clarity Act flames out in failed U.S. Senate vote","publisher":"CoinDesk","url":"https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2026/09/15/crypto-clarity-act-flames-out-in-failed-u-s-senate-vote","published":"2026-09-15","quote":"a 49-50 vote meant to start the bill toward passage fell far short in rounding up the 60 supporters required to advance"},{"id":"c2","title":"U.S. House of Representatives pass CLARITY Act with bipartisan support","publisher":"Office of Rep. Don Davis","url":"https://dondavis.house.gov/media/press-releases/us-house-representatives-pass-clarity-act-bipartisan-support","published":"2025-07-17","quote":"also known as the CLARITY Act, by a bipartisan vote of 294-134"},{"id":"c3","title":"Crypto Clarity Act flames out in failed U.S. Senate vote","publisher":"CoinDesk","url":"https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2026/09/15/crypto-clarity-act-flames-out-in-failed-u-s-senate-vote","published":"2026-09-15","quote":"Negotiators for the two political parties had hashed out more than 600 pages of legislative compromise"},{"id":"c4","title":"U.S. Crypto Ownership Falls From 2025 High","publisher":"Gallup","url":"https://news.gallup.com/poll/714590/crypto-ownership-falls-2025-high.aspx","published":"2026-09-21","quote":"9% now report owning cryptocurrency, down from 14% in Gallup's initial reading of this group last year"},{"id":"c5","title":"Crypto enters September with legislative policy gamble hanging by a thread","publisher":"CNBC","url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/01/crypto-enters-september-with-policy-gamble-hanging-by-a-thread.html","published":"2026-09-01","quote":"Crypto-backed political groups spent more than $200 million"},{"id":"c6","title":"CLARITY Act Fails 49-50 in US Senate as SEC & CFTC Move Ahead on Crypto Rules Within 48 Hours","publisher":"The Crypto Times","url":"https://www.cryptotimes.io/2026/09/20/clarity-act-fails-49-50-in-us-senate-as-sec-cftc-move-ahead-on-crypto-rules-within-48-hours/","published":"2026-09-20","quote":"The tally was 11 votes short of the 60-vote three-fifths threshold and one short of a simple majority."},{"id":"c7","title":"Don't Ask, Don't Tell Repeal Act of 2010","publisher":"Wikipedia","url":"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Don%27t_Ask,_Don%27t_Tell_Repeal_Act_of_2010","published":"2026-09-26","quote":"President Barack Obama signed the bill into law on December 22, 2010"},{"id":"c8","title":"CLARITY Act fails Senate vote, crypto blame game begins","publisher":"CoinGeek","url":"https://coingeek.com/clarity-act-fails-senate-vote-crypto-blame-game-begins/","published":"2026-09-16","quote":"Jerry Moran of Kansas, Maine's Susan Collins, and Missouri's Josh Hawley"}],"hash":"423fccd0d1cdb67bfaa17c53efa98c79449599c736068564caac6bf18368f876"}],"faqs":[{"question":"Will the CLARITY Act pass in 2026?","answer":"Very unlikely. TPG puts the chance the CLARITY Act becomes law by December 31, 2026 at 6 percent. On September 15, 2026 the Senate voted 49 to 50 on starting debate, 11 votes short of the 60 needed. A motion to reconsider keeps it technically alive, but no new vote is scheduled and the ethics dispute is unresolved."},{"question":"Why did the CLARITY Act fail in the Senate?","answer":"The Senate's September 15, 2026 cloture vote failed 49 to 50. Every Democrat and three Republicans voted no. The main unresolved issues were ethics rules for senior officials with crypto businesses, including the President's family ventures, liability for decentralized finance developers, and limits on stablecoin yield."},{"question":"What happens to crypto regulation if the CLARITY Act fails?","answer":"Regulation shifts to the agencies. The SEC has proposed Regulation Crypto Assets and the CFTC is advancing its own rules. Those can be reversed by a future administration, which is why the industry wanted a statute. The 2025 GENIUS Act remains the one federal crypto law, covering stablecoins."},{"question":"Did the House pass the CLARITY Act?","answer":"Yes. The House passed the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, H.R. 3633, on July 17, 2025 by 294 to 134, with 78 Democrats voting yes. The Senate Banking Committee approved its version 15 to 9 in May 2026, but the full Senate has not been able to begin debate."}],"resolved":null,"url":"https://www.thepoliticalgroup.com/forecasts/will-the-clarity-act-become-law-in-2026"},{"slug":"will-the-fy2027-ndaa-become-law-by-december-31-2026","question":"Will the FY2027 defense bill (NDAA) become law by December 31, 2026?","short":"FY2027 NDAA law by Dec 31","pillar":"domestic","topics":["us-congress","middle-east"],"created":"2026-09-26","resolution":{"criteria":"Resolves YES if, by 11:59 p.m. Eastern on December 31, 2026, the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2027 (H.R. 8800, S. 4784, or any other bill designated as or substantively serving as the FY2027 NDAA) is signed into law or enacted over a veto. Resolves NO if it is enacted on or after January 1, 2027, or not at all.","deadline":"2026-12-31","judgedBy":"Congress.gov public law listing and White House signing announcements"},"whyItMatters":"The annual defense bill sets policy and pay for about 1.3 million active-duty troops and their families and authorizes a record $1.15 trillion defense budget, while Senate Democrats are blocking it over the war with Iran.","impact":[{"audience":"Service members and military families","effect":"The Senate bill carries a 3.6% troop pay raise plus housing, childcare and health provisions. A delay into 2027 would hold up the policy changes and could briefly interrupt bonus and special pay authorities that are usually renewed each year."},{"audience":"Defense workers and contractors","effect":"The bill authorizes $1.15 trillion in the House version and $1.14 trillion in the Senate version, and sets acquisition rules, multiyear buys and new programs that contractors plan hiring around."},{"audience":"Taxpayers","effect":"The authorized level is the largest ever proposed. Whatever number the final bill carries becomes the marker for defense appropriations, and for the separate $350 billion reconciliation request, in 2027."},{"audience":"People following the Iran war","effect":"The bill is the main vehicle for Congress to write limits or reporting requirements on the war that began February 28, 2026. Its fate signals how much say Congress will claim over the conflict."},{"audience":"Voters","effect":"The House version carries the SAVE Act voter eligibility measure. Whether that survives into a final bill matters for voter registration rules in future elections."}],"versions":[{"version":1,"published":"2026-09-26T07:36:07Z","cutoff":"2026-09-26","probability":0.75,"range":[0.62,0.86],"call":"Likely, with a real risk of slipping","headline":"We estimate a 75 percent chance the FY2027 defense authorization bill becomes law by December 31, 2026. The main reason: Congress has enacted an NDAA 65 years in a row, usually in December. The main risk: Senate Democrats blocked it 50 to 46 in July over the Iran war, and it has not moved since.","lenses":{"psychology":["Nobody in the defense committees wants to be the leader who ends a 65-year streak. Armed Services Chair Roger Wicker, ranking Democrat Jack Reed, and their House counterparts Mike Rogers and Adam Smith all have careers built on getting this bill done, and they have a proven method: when the Senate cannot pass its own bill, the four leaders write a compromise text and each chamber votes on it. House Chair Rogers said on the floor in July that the House version is 'just a single step in a long process.'","Senate Democrats paid a real price to block the bill before an election, accepting attacks that they held up a troop pay raise. That shows their objection to the Iran war and the spending level is sincere, not a bluff. But their stated goal is leverage over the war and the topline, not the bill's death. After the election, Democrats who expect to gain power in January could choose to wait and write the bill themselves, and that is the scenario that pushes enactment into 2027."],"history":["Reference class: the last 20 NDAAs (fiscal 2007 to 2026). Sixteen became law by December 31 of the year their fiscal year began. Four slipped into January: fiscal 2008 (January 28, 2008, after a pocket veto), 2011 (January 7, 2011), 2013 (January 2, 2013) and 2021 (January 1, 2021, after a veto override). That is 80 percent on time by this definition.","Closest analogue: fiscal 2021. A contested election, a lame duck, and a presidential veto over an unrelated demand pushed the final override to New Year's Day. Where it breaks: that bill had passed both chambers by wide margins in the summer. In 2026 the Senate has not even agreed to take up its bill, and the House passed its version by just 216 to 212 after attaching the SAVE Act, a measure the Senate is unlikely to accept. The Senate has skipped its own floor passage before, notably for the fiscal 2023 and 2025 bills, and still finished in December using a negotiated text, so floor failure alone is not fatal."],"statistics":["Start from the 80 percent on-time base rate (16 of 20).","Subtract 10 points for conditions with no clear precedent in the reference class: a live war the minority party opposes, a failed cloture vote on even taking up the bill, a House version loaded with a partisan election measure, and a short lame duck that must also handle appropriations and possibly a war funding package. Add 5 points for the streak's institutional pull and the established shortcut of a leaders' compromise text, which needs no Senate floor passage of S. 4784.","80 minus 10 plus 5 lands at 75 percent, band 62 to 86 percent. Kalshi prices 'Before Jan 1, 2027' at 84 to 87 cents. We are about 10 points lower because a slip of even one day into January resolves NO, and three of the last four slips in the reference class happened in exactly the kind of contested lame duck we expect this year."]},"betweenTheLines":[{"type":"costly","signal":"Senate Democrats voted as a bloc against even taking up the NDAA on July 14, 2026 (50 to 46), with Sen. Tammy Duckworth saying the Senate cannot authorize $1.14 trillion for an 'illegal and disastrous war.'","read":"Blocking a pay-raise bill four months before an election is expensive, so the objection is real. But Democrats targeted the motion to proceed, not the committee bill they helped write 18 to 9. They are bargaining over terms, not trying to kill the bill."},{"type":"sequencing","signal":"Majority Leader Thune entered a motion to reconsider in July but, per the Congressional Research Service, the Senate took no further step through September, even during the pre-election week.","read":"Leaders are saving the defense bill for a lame-duck package negotiated by the four committee leaders. That is the path used in recent years and it points to December action, which is favorable for YES but leaves little slack before December 31."},{"type":"omission","signal":"House Republicans attached the SAVE Act voter eligibility measure to the NDAA text they sent to the Senate.","read":"A rider the Senate cannot pass tells you the House bill is a negotiating position, not the final product. Its presence raises the chance of a late December standoff, because dropping it will be a visible concession for House conservatives."},{"type":"tone","signal":"HASC Chair Mike Rogers promised to 'work in a bipartisan manner as we make our way through the conference committee' even as his bill passed with six Democratic votes.","read":"Committee leaders are signaling that the final bill will be written across the aisle. That tone matches every recent December finish."}],"baseRate":{"value":0.8,"label":"of the last 20 NDAAs (FY2007 to FY2026) became law by December 31 of the year their fiscal year began (16 of 20)","n":20,"reference":"TPG count from enactment dates of each NDAA from fiscal 2007 to fiscal 2026. Late cases: FY2008 (signed January 28, 2008), FY2011 (January 7, 2011), FY2013 (January 2, 2013) and FY2021 (enacted January 1, 2021). Greenberg Traurig notes eight of the last 10 were enacted in December.","sourceIds":["n1","n7"]},"analogues":[{"case":"FY2021 NDAA","year":"2020","similarity":"Lame-duck session, sharp partisan conflict, a presidential demand unrelated to defense policy.","outcome":"Vetoed in December and enacted over the veto on January 1, 2021, one day too late for a question like this one.","breaks":"Both chambers had already passed strong bipartisan bills; the obstacle was the President, not a Senate blockade."},{"case":"FY2026 NDAA","year":"2025","similarity":"Same Congress, same committee leaders, no formal conference.","outcome":"Final Senate vote 77 to 20 on December 17 and signed December 18, 2025.","breaks":"The Senate had passed its own bill in October 2025. There was no war-related boycott."},{"case":"FY2013 NDAA","year":"2012","similarity":"Post-election lame duck crowded by a fiscal fight (the fiscal cliff).","outcome":"Passed in late December and signed January 2, 2013.","breaks":"The delay was about timing and a signing statement, not a policy blockade."}],"scenarios":[{"name":"Leaders' compromise text passes both chambers in December and is signed by December 31","probability":0.6,"trigger":"Committee leaders negotiate a final bill after the election, dropping the SAVE Act and adding some Iran war reporting language."},{"name":"Senate reconsiders cloture, passes S. 4784, and a conference bill is signed by December 31","probability":0.15,"trigger":"Democrats relent after a deal on war oversight or the topline."},{"name":"Congress finishes in late December but enactment lands in January","probability":0.08,"trigger":"A veto threat, a late signature or an override pushes the law past New Year's Day."},{"name":"Bill punted to the new Congress","probability":0.17,"trigger":"An incoming Democratic majority prefers to write the bill in 2027, or the war funding fight swallows the lame duck."}],"signposts":[{"signal":"Wicker, Reed, Rogers and Smith announce a compromise text after the election","direction":"up","effect":"+12 points"},{"signal":"Senate Democrats publicly tie their NDAA votes to a war powers or Iran withdrawal condition","direction":"down","effect":"-10 points"},{"signal":"House leaders insist on keeping the SAVE Act in the final bill","direction":"down","effect":"-8 points"},{"signal":"The White House threatens a veto over any provision","direction":"down","effect":"-7 points"}],"market":{"source":"Kalshi","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxndaa","probability":0.85,"asOf":"2026-09-26","gapRead":"Kalshi's 'When will the FY2027 NDAA become law? Before Jan 1, 2027' traded between 84 and 87 cents. We are 10 points lower because the market seems to price the 65-year streak without fully weighting the January slip risk; the streak counts fiscal years, not calendar deadlines, and four of the last 20 bills missed December 31."},"stats":[{"value":"65","label":"consecutive fiscal years Congress has enacted an NDAA","sourceId":"n7"},{"value":"8 of the last 10","label":"NDAAs enacted in December","sourceId":"n1"},{"value":"50-46","label":"failed July 14 Senate vote on taking up the bill","sourceId":"n2"},{"value":"216-to-212","label":"House vote passing its $1.15 trillion version","sourceId":"n3"},{"value":"3.6%","label":"troop pay raise in the Senate bill","sourceId":"n4"},{"value":"77-20","label":"final Senate vote for last year's NDAA in December 2025","sourceId":"n5"}],"sources":[{"id":"n1","title":"FY 2026 NDAA: The Substantial Impact Of The Fiscal Year 2026 National Defense Authorization Act On Federal Procurement Law","publisher":"Greenberg Traurig","url":"https://www.gtlaw.com/en/insights/2026/2/fy2026ndaa/fy-2026-ndaa-the-substantial-impact-of-the-fiscal-year-2026-national-defense-authorization-act-on-federal-procurement-law","published":"2026-02-01","quote":"eight of the last 10 NDAAs were enacted in December and the FY 2021 NDAA, Pub. L. No. 116-283, was not enacted until January 1, 2021."},{"id":"n2","title":"FY2027 NDAA: Status of Legislative Activity (IN12704)","publisher":"Congressional Research Service via EveryCRSReport","url":"https://www.everycrsreport.com/reports/IN12704.html","published":"2026-09-01","quote":"On July 14, cloture failed (50-46) on the motion to proceed"},{"id":"n3","title":"House passes 2027 NDAA while measure remains stalled in the Senate","publisher":"Breaking Defense","url":"https://breakingdefense.com/2026/07/house-passes-2027-ndaa-while-measure-remains-stalled-in-the-senate/","published":"2026-07-22","quote":"the House passed its version of a $1.15 trillion fiscal 2027 defense authorization bill on a 216-to-212 vote"},{"id":"n4","title":"Senate Democrats block must-pass defense policy bill over Iran war objections","publisher":"CBS News","url":"https://www.cbsnews.com/news/senate-democrats-ndaa-iran/","published":"2026-07-14","quote":"He also touted the bill's 3.6% pay raise for troops"},{"id":"n5","title":"Defense Funding and Policies Set for Next Year as FY2026 NDAA Becomes Law","publisher":"Morgan Lewis","url":"https://www.morganlewis.com/pubs/2025/12/defense-funding-and-policies-set-for-next-year-as-fy2026-ndaa-becomes-law","published":"2025-12-19","quote":"on December 17 (77-20), sending the 2026 NDAA to the president to be signed into law."},{"id":"n6","title":"NDAA Faces Uphill Battle in Congress as Lawmakers Urge Trump's Restraint on 'Illegal' Iran War","publisher":"Military.com","url":"https://www.military.com/ndaa-faces-uphill-battle-in-congress-as-lawmakers-urge-trump-restraint-illegal-iran-war","published":"2026-07-14","quote":"The Senate cannot authorize $1.14 trillion in defense spending"},{"id":"n7","title":"FY 2026 NDAA: The Substantial Impact Of The Fiscal Year 2026 National Defense Authorization Act On Federal Procurement Law","publisher":"Greenberg Traurig","url":"https://www.gtlaw.com/en/insights/2026/2/fy2026ndaa/fy-2026-ndaa-the-substantial-impact-of-the-fiscal-year-2026-national-defense-authorization-act-on-federal-procurement-law","published":"2026-02-01","quote":"becoming the 65th consecutive fiscal year that an NDAA has been enacted"}],"hash":"da61d8caefbfea2b4202f0fc807e4db98df7a714491625dfefb354c68f317bdf"}],"faqs":[{"question":"Will the NDAA pass in 2026?","answer":"Probably. TPG estimates a 75 percent chance the fiscal 2027 National Defense Authorization Act becomes law by December 31, 2026. Congress has enacted an NDAA 65 years running, usually in December. The risk is a slip into January: Senate Democrats blocked the bill 50 to 46 in July over the Iran war, and it has not moved since."},{"question":"Why did Senate Democrats block the NDAA?","answer":"On July 14, 2026 the Senate failed 50 to 46 to begin debate on the fiscal 2027 NDAA. Democrats cited President Trump's handling of the war with Iran and the size of the budget, which Sen. Tammy Duckworth called $1.14 trillion, the largest defense budget ever proposed."},{"question":"What is in the 2027 NDAA?","answer":"The House version authorizes $1.15 trillion and the Senate committee version about $1.14 trillion. The Senate bill includes a 3.6% troop pay raise. The House bill adds provisions on firearms on bases, military right to repair, a Defense Production Act extension and the SAVE Act voter eligibility measure."},{"question":"Has Congress ever failed to pass the NDAA?","answer":"No. The FY2026 NDAA, signed December 18, 2025, was the 65th consecutive year an NDAA was enacted. Some have arrived late, though: the FY2021 bill became law on January 1, 2021 after a veto override, and the FY2013 bill was signed January 2, 2013."}],"resolved":null,"url":"https://www.thepoliticalgroup.com/forecasts/will-the-fy2027-ndaa-become-law-by-december-31-2026"},{"slug":"will-the-government-shut-down-in-december-2026","question":"Will the U.S. government shut down in December 2026, when the current stopgap expires?","short":"U.S. shutdown after Dec 11","pillar":"domestic","topics":["government-funding","us-congress"],"created":"2026-09-26","resolution":{"criteria":"Resolves YES if, at any point from 12:01 a.m. Eastern on December 12, 2026 through 11:59 p.m. Eastern on December 31, 2026, a lapse in appropriations occurs for any federal department or agency and the Office of Management and Budget directs affected agencies to carry out shutdown plans (a full or partial shutdown). A lapse of only a few hours that ends before OMB orders shutdown procedures, as in February 2018, does not count. Resolves NO if Congress enacts another stopgap or full-year funding before any such lapse, or if no qualifying lapse begins by December 31, 2026.","deadline":"2026-12-31","judgedBy":"OMB shutdown notices to agencies, confirmed by AP or Reuters reporting"},"whyItMatters":"A December shutdown would hit federal paychecks, SNAP benefits and holiday air travel at the busiest time of year, one week after farm bill and highway programs also run out.","impact":[{"audience":"Federal workers","effect":"Furloughed employees stop getting paychecks during a lapse. A 2019 law guarantees back pay, but a shutdown that runs past mid December would put a missed payday right at the holidays."},{"audience":"SNAP families","effect":"Full-year Agriculture funding for fiscal 2027 has not been enacted, so food benefits would again depend on USDA stretching limited authority, the same pressure point that caused alarm during the October to November 2025 shutdown."},{"audience":"Holiday travelers","effect":"Air traffic controllers and TSA officers are required to keep working without pay during a shutdown. In the 2018 to 2019 holiday shutdown that strain produced longer lines and staffing gaps."},{"audience":"Businesses and the economy","effect":"CBO estimated the six-week 2025 shutdown cost $11 billion in real GDP. Contractors, small firms waiting on SBA loans and anyone waiting on a federal permit would feel delays first."},{"audience":"Farmers and road builders","effect":"The same December 11 date is also when farm bill provisions and the surface transportation authorization expire, so a funding collapse would likely take those extensions down with it."}],"versions":[{"version":1,"published":"2026-09-26T07:36:07Z","cutoff":"2026-09-26","probability":0.24,"range":[0.15,0.35],"call":"Unlikely, but this Congress lapses often","headline":"We put the odds of a federal government shutdown starting between December 12 and December 31, 2026 at 24 percent. Funding runs out December 11, after the midterms. The biggest reason it probably holds: another short stopgap into 2027 is cheap for both parties, and this Congress just passed one 370 to 48.","lenses":{"psychology":["Both parties spent the fall proving they did not want a shutdown on the ballot. Senate Democrats, who withheld votes twice in fiscal 2026, voted for a stopgap that gave them only modest wins, and Speaker Mike Johnson sold the September bill as avoiding 'another Democratic shutdown.' After November 3 that electoral fear disappears, but a new one replaces it: nobody wants to own a Christmas shutdown, and the members who lost their seats have little reason to fight for anything but a quick exit.","The pressure point is what the winners want. House Appropriations Chair Tom Cole said on the record that everybody's calculations will change after the election. A party that just won a chamber has an incentive to punt full-year bills into January, when it has more power. A punt is a stopgap, not a shutdown. The real risk is a principal who needs a visible win before the year ends: in 2018 the lame-duck lapse came when the President refused a stopgap to press for border wall money, after his party lost the House.","Democrats have learned that shutdowns did not pay. NPR's account of the two record shutdowns this Congress is blunt: Democrats did not extract concrete concessions. That lowers the chance they start one in December. The remaining triggers sit on the other side of the table: the White House's push for a far larger defense budget and for more immigration enforcement money."],"history":["Reference class: lame-duck funding deadlines, meaning a stopgap that expires between Election Day and the end of the year. Since 1980 we count 13 of them (1980, 1982, 2000, 2002, 2004, 2006, 2010, 2014, 2016, 2018, 2020, 2022 and 2024). Two ended in a funding gap: December 1982 and December 2018. That is roughly 15 percent. In every other case Congress passed another stopgap or an omnibus, sometimes with hours to spare, as in December 2024.","Closest analogue: December 2018. A Republican trifecta had just lost the House, a stopgap expired in mid December, and the President refused to sign a bill without wall money, producing a 35-day partial shutdown. Where it breaks: in 2018 the dispute was a single, symbolic demand the President had campaigned on. In 2026 the biggest ask, a $1.5 trillion defense budget, is partly being routed through a separate $350 billion reconciliation request that does not need Democratic votes, which takes some of the pressure off the appropriations bill.","Where the reference class understates the risk: this Congress is an outlier. It produced a 43-day shutdown in October 2025, a brief partial lapse from January 31 to February 3, 2026, and a 76-day Homeland Security shutdown that ended April 30. Three lapses in one fiscal year is without modern precedent."],"statistics":["Start from the lame-duck base rate of about 15 percent (2 of 13 since 1980).","Adjust up 10 points for this Congress's demonstrated willingness to let funding lapse (three lapses in fiscal 2026 alone). Adjust up 4 points for an unusually wide topline gap: Republicans want a large defense increase with non-defense cuts, and Democrats demand parity. Adjust down 5 points because the exit is cheap and proven: the September stopgap passed the Senate 90 to 6 and the House 370 to 48, and both appropriations leaders, Cole and Rosa DeLauro, are on record wanting to finish the year without drama.","15 + 10 + 4 minus 5 lands at 24 percent, with an honest band of 15 to 35 percent. Kalshi's contract on a shutdown on December 12 trades near 29 percent; we sit a little lower because we weight the cheap short-stopgap exit more heavily than the market does."]},"betweenTheLines":[{"type":"costly","signal":"Senate Democrats supplied the votes for a 90 to 6 stopgap in August after two shutdowns this Congress in which, as NPR reported, they were unable to extract concrete concessions.","read":"Voting for a plain stopgap before an election is a costly signal that the caucus has marked the shutdown tool down. A December lapse is more likely to start with a White House demand than with a Democratic filibuster."},{"type":"tone","signal":"Tom Cole said he wants to finish all 12 bills by year end but added that 'we won't know if we'll be doing that till after the election' and that everybody's calculations will change.","read":"The chairman is pre-positioning for another stopgap rather than promising an omnibus. That is the language of a punt, which is the NO outcome."},{"type":"sequencing","signal":"The administration's $1.5 trillion defense request is split: $1.15 trillion in the base budget and $350 billion through reconciliation, a track that needs only Republican votes.","read":"Routing the most contested money around the filibuster lowers the stakes of the December appropriations fight. If Republicans abandon the reconciliation track after the election and try to load the extra money onto the spending bill, the risk goes up sharply."},{"type":"sequencing","signal":"The same stopgap also set December 11 as the expiration date for farm bill provisions and the surface transportation authorization, and moved the hemp restriction to that date.","read":"Stacking several expirations on one day creates a must-pass vehicle that many interests want to ride. That raises the odds of either a big package or another short stopgap, and it makes a clean lapse costlier for everyone."}],"baseRate":{"value":0.15,"label":"of lame-duck funding deadlines since 1980 ended in a funding gap (2 of 13)","n":13,"reference":"TPG count of stopgaps that expired between Election Day and December 31 in 1980, 1982, 2000, 2002, 2004, 2006, 2010, 2014, 2016, 2018, 2020, 2022 and 2024. Years when funding was already settled past the new year (such as 2008 and 2012) are excluded. Funding gaps checked against the list of federal funding gaps; gaps occurred in December 1982 and December 2018.","sourceIds":["s5"]},"analogues":[{"case":"December 2018 partial shutdown","year":"2018","similarity":"Republican trifecta, lame duck after the party lost the House, stopgap expiring in mid December, President pressing a signature demand.","outcome":"Funding lapsed December 22 and the partial shutdown lasted 35 days.","breaks":"Five of 12 bills were already enacted in 2018, so the stakes were narrower. In 2026 none of the fiscal 2027 bills is law, which raises the cost of a lapse for every agency and increases pressure to avoid one."},{"case":"December 2024 near miss","year":"2024","similarity":"Lame-duck stopgap deadline, a bipartisan deal blown up days before the deadline by outside pressure from the incoming administration.","outcome":"Congress passed a slimmed stopgap just after the deadline with no shutdown procedures ordered.","breaks":"The 2024 fight was over a sprawling package and a debt limit demand, not a year-long record of lapses. It shows how fast a deal can collapse, and how fast a fallback can be found."},{"case":"October 2025 to April 2026 shutdowns","year":"2025","similarity":"Same Congress, same leaders, same White House.","outcome":"A 43-day full shutdown, a four-day partial lapse and a 76-day DHS shutdown.","breaks":"Those lapses began with Democrats withholding votes over health subsidies and immigration enforcement, and they ended without concessions. That experience makes a Democratic-initiated December lapse less likely."}],"scenarios":[{"name":"Full-year omnibus or minibus package before the deadline","probability":0.3,"trigger":"Election results settle leverage quickly and appropriators agree on a topline by early December."},{"name":"Another short stopgap into 2027","probability":0.46,"trigger":"The incoming majority prefers to write the bills in January, and leaders pass a clean extension, possibly carrying farm bill and highway extensions."},{"name":"Brief lapse of under a week, then a deal","probability":0.14,"trigger":"A last-minute demand from the White House or a floor holdout pushes the vote past midnight December 11 or a later short deadline."},{"name":"Extended holiday shutdown","probability":0.1,"trigger":"The President refuses to sign a stopgap without defense or immigration money, echoing December 2018."}],"signposts":[{"signal":"Leaders of both parties announce a stopgap into January or February 2027 soon after the election","direction":"down","effect":"-10 points"},{"signal":"The President says publicly he will not sign a stopgap without a defense or border funding increase","direction":"up","effect":"+15 points"},{"signal":"Senate Democrats attach new conditions on ICE tactics or the grant-cancellation rule to their December votes","direction":"up","effect":"+8 points"},{"signal":"House and Senate appropriators release an agreed topline by December 1","direction":"down","effect":"-8 points"}],"market":{"source":"Kalshi","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxgovtshutdown","probability":0.29,"asOf":"2026-09-26","gapRead":"Kalshi's 'Government shutdown on Dec 12, 2026?' contract traded at 28 to 29 cents. Our window is wider (any lapse through December 31), which should push our number up, yet we are 5 points lower because we think traders are anchoring on this Congress's three fiscal 2026 lapses and underweighting how cheaply leaders punted in September."},"stats":[{"value":"43 days","label":"length of the October to November 2025 shutdown, the longest on record","sourceId":"s2"},{"value":"76 days","label":"length of the Homeland Security shutdown that ended in April 2026","sourceId":"s2"},{"value":"370-48","label":"House vote for the current stopgap through December 11","sourceId":"s1"},{"value":"90 to 6","label":"Senate vote for the same stopgap in August","sourceId":"s3"},{"value":"$1.5 trillion","label":"military budget the President wants and Democrats reject","sourceId":"s4"},{"value":"$11 billion","label":"real GDP lost to the six-week 2025 shutdown, per CBO","sourceId":"s6"}],"sources":[{"id":"s1","title":"House passes short-term funding bill to avoid a shutdown before the election","publisher":"Associated Press via Federal News Network","url":"https://federalnewsnetwork.com/congress/2026/09/house-passes-short-term-funding-bill-to-avoid-a-shutdown-before-the-election/","published":"2026-09-01","quote":"The House passed the bill by a vote of 370-48."},{"id":"s2","title":"Congress averts a government shutdown ahead of the midterms","publisher":"NPR","url":"https://www.npr.org/2026/09/01/nx-s1-5951536/house-government-funding-vote-midterms","published":"2026-09-01","quote":"prompting a 43-day shutdown that ended in November. A 76-day shutdown at the Department of Homeland Security came to a close in April"},{"id":"s3","title":"Appropriations Watch: FY 2027","publisher":"Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget","url":"https://www.crfb.org/blogs/appropriations-watch-fy-2027","published":"2026-09-03","quote":"Passed by a 90 to 6 vote on 8/8"},{"id":"s4","title":"House passes short-term funding bill to prevent a shutdown before the election","publisher":"NBC News","url":"https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/house-votes-pass-short-term-funding-bill-prevent-shutdown-election-rcna595350","published":"2026-09-01","quote":"Democrats reject Trump's call for a massive $1.5 trillion military budget"},{"id":"s5","title":"List of United States federal funding gaps","publisher":"Wikipedia","url":"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_federal_funding_gaps","published":"2026-09-26","quote":"the United States Federal Government has had funding gaps on 27 occasions."},{"id":"s6","title":"Government Shutdowns Q&A: Everything You Should Know","publisher":"Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget","url":"https://www.crfb.org/papers/government-shutdowns-qa-everything-you-should-know","published":"2026-01-26","quote":"In 2025, CBO estimated that the six-week shutdown would result in a loss of $11 billion in real GDP"},{"id":"s7","title":"Upcoming Congressional Fiscal Policy Deadlines","publisher":"Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget","url":"https://www.crfb.org/blogs/upcoming-congressional-fiscal-policy-deadlines","published":"2026-09-10","quote":"December 11, 2026 Government Funding expires Certain Veterans' Affairs Health Care Extenders Expire Farm Bill Provisions Expire"}],"hash":"9bf321dec3e9e62d1196b310fd4b4eb058eaf22767bb38c15ff51b96d8b16edf"}],"faqs":[{"question":"Will the government shut down in December 2026?","answer":"Probably not, but it is a real risk. TPG puts the chance of a shutdown starting between December 12 and December 31, 2026 at 24 percent. Current funding expires December 11. The most likely outcome is another short stopgap into early 2027 or a full-year package, because both parties just voted overwhelmingly for a stopgap and neither wants a Christmas shutdown."},{"question":"When does government funding run out?","answer":"Federal funding runs through December 11, 2026 under the Continuing Appropriations and Extensions Act, 2027, which President Trump signed on September 2, 2026. Congress must pass another stopgap or full-year spending bills by then. Farm bill provisions and the surface transportation authorization expire on the same date."},{"question":"Did the government shut down on October 1, 2026?","answer":"No. Congress passed a stopgap that keeps agencies funded at current levels through December 11, 2026. The Senate approved it 90 to 6 in August and the House 370 to 48 on September 1, and the President signed it on September 2, so there was no lapse when fiscal 2027 began on October 1."},{"question":"What happens to SNAP food stamps if the government shuts down in December?","answer":"SNAP benefits are mandatory spending, but USDA needs appropriations to keep sending them, and full-year Agriculture funding for fiscal 2027 is not yet law. During the 2025 shutdown, benefit issuance became a flashpoint. A December lapse would raise the same risk for January benefits if it lasted more than a few weeks."},{"question":"How many government shutdowns have there been?","answer":"Since the modern budget process began in 1976, the federal government has had 27 funding gaps, according to the running list of federal funding gaps. Fiscal 2026 alone saw three: a 43-day shutdown ending in November 2025, a short partial lapse in early February 2026, and a 76-day Homeland Security shutdown that ended April 30."}],"resolved":null,"url":"https://www.thepoliticalgroup.com/forecasts/will-the-government-shut-down-in-december-2026"},{"slug":"will-trump-invoke-the-insurrection-act-before-2027","question":"Will President Trump invoke the Insurrection Act to deploy troops inside the United States before January 1, 2027?","short":"Trump invokes Insurrection Act by 2027","pillar":"domestic","topics":["white-house","immigration","elections-2026"],"created":"2026-09-26","resolution":{"criteria":"Resolves YES if, between September 26, 2026 and 11:59 p.m. Eastern on December 31, 2026, President Trump formally invokes the Insurrection Act (10 U.S.C. 251 to 255), by proclamation, executive order or other official directive citing those provisions, to deploy active-duty military or federalized National Guard forces within the United States. Resolves NO otherwise. Threats, statements that the law could be used, and deployments under other authorities such as 10 U.S.C. 12406 or Title 32 do not count.","deadline":"2026-12-31","judgedBy":"A White House proclamation or executive order published on whitehouse.gov or in the Federal Register, or consistent reporting by major national news outlets"},"whyItMatters":"Invoking the Insurrection Act would let soldiers make arrests and conduct searches on American streets for the first time since 1992, during a midterm election and a national fight over immigration enforcement.","impact":[{"audience":"Residents of targeted cities","effect":"Troops could carry out law enforcement tasks such as arrests and searches, which the Posse Comitatus Act normally forbids, changing how protests, immigration raids and street policing work."},{"audience":"Immigrants and immigrant communities","effect":"Most recent threats followed protests against ICE operations. An invocation tied to immigration enforcement would put military units alongside ICE in neighborhoods with large immigrant populations."},{"audience":"Voters and election workers","effect":"The midterm is November 3, 2026. Deploying troops to polling places is illegal, but any invocation near Election Day would raise fears of intimidation and likely draw emergency lawsuits from states."},{"audience":"National Guard members and their employers","effect":"Guard members could be called away from civilian jobs for weeks under federal orders, as happened during the 2025 deployments in Los Angeles, Portland and Chicago."},{"audience":"State governments","effect":"Governors who object would lose the court route that blocked the 2025 Guard federalizations, because the Insurrection Act gives the president much broader discretion than the law used then."}],"versions":[{"version":1,"published":"2026-09-26T07:36:07Z","cutoff":"2026-09-26","probability":0.08,"range":[0.04,0.15],"call":"Unlikely, threats have not become action","headline":"We put the chance at 8% that President Trump invokes the Insurrection Act to deploy troops inside the United States before January 1, 2027. The biggest reason: he has threatened to use it at least four times since 2020 without once following through, and his administration keeps building workarounds rather than taking that step.","lenses":{"psychology":["President Trump uses the Insurrection Act as a threat more than a tool. In 2020 he warned he might send troops against the George Floyd protests, in October 2025 he said he could always use the law if he wanted to, and in January 2026 he threatened it over protests in Minneapolis. Each time, the threat applied pressure on governors and protesters and then faded. A threat that costs nothing to repeat is weak evidence of intent.","The costs of actually invoking it are high and specific. It would be the first use in more than three decades, it would hand opponents a defining image weeks before or after a midterm, and it would test the loyalty of military leaders who have publicly said they see no plans to put troops near polls. The administration's revealed preference is to find options that deliver force without that label, such as federalized Guard deployments in 2025 and, most recently, a DHS plan to deputize Guard members as immigration officers.","What could change the calculus is a sudden, violent event that makes invocation look like a response rather than a choice: a riot after a contested election result, a deadly attack on federal agents, or a city refusing to protect a federal facility. Leaders who have repeatedly said they are allowed to do something face lower audience costs when a crisis gives them a reason."],"history":["The Insurrection Act has been invoked only about 30 times since 1807, and the last was the 1992 Los Angeles riots, at the request of California's governor. The long gap covers riots, hurricanes and the 2020 protests, all of which were handled with state-controlled Guard forces or other authorities.","The closest analogue is June 2020. Protests were widespread, the president publicly raised the Insurrection Act, and senior defense officials resisted. He did not invoke it. The difference now is that the Supreme Court's December 2025 ruling in Trump v. Illinois narrowed the other federal law the administration used to federalize the Guard, which leaves the Insurrection Act as the clearest remaining route for sending troops into an unwilling state.","Where that analogy breaks: in 2020 the president was in his first term with more independent-minded defense leadership. In 2026 the administration has shown more willingness to deploy forces domestically, having federalized or tried to deploy Guard troops in three states in 2025. That makes the step smaller than it was, even if it has still not been taken."],"statistics":["Start from the historical rate. With zero invocations in the 34 years since 1992, the rule of succession gives about 1 in 36 per year, or roughly 0.7% for a three-month window.","Adjust for this president. He has threatened invocation at least four times and federalized the Guard over governors' objections, so we multiply the baseline by about five, to roughly 4%. Then add about 4 points for the specific risks of this window: the November 3 midterm and any post-election unrest, ongoing clashes over ICE operations, and the Illinois ruling that pushed the administration toward the Insurrection Act as its main legal route. That gives about 8%.","The Kalshi market for invocation before 2027 trades at about 15 cents. We are lower because the market prices threats that have repeatedly failed to convert, and because the administration's recent moves, like deputizing Guard members for immigration work, are designed to get similar results without invoking the law."]},"betweenTheLines":[{"type":"cheap","signal":"Trump said in October 2025 that the administration was trying to act in a nicer manner but could always use the Insurrection Act if it wanted.","read":"Framing the law as a reserve option, not a plan, is a pressure tactic. It keeps governors guessing without incurring the costs of acting. Repeated threats with no follow-through lower, not raise, the odds of any single one being real."},{"type":"costly","signal":"An internal DHS memo lays out a plan to deputize National Guard members as immigration enforcement officers.","read":"Building a workaround takes real bureaucratic effort. It shows the administration is investing in ways to get troops doing enforcement work without the political and legal exposure of invoking the Insurrection Act."},{"type":"personnel","signal":"Joint Chiefs Chairman General Dan Caine answered a senator that there are no plans to send troops to the polls, while NORTHCOM's commander said he would examine any such order very closely.","read":"Uniformed leaders are putting their caution on the record before the election. That raises the internal friction any invocation would face, especially around Election Day."},{"type":"omission","signal":"Asked in May whether he would rule out using the military around the election, the president said he would do anything necessary to ensure honest elections, and the White House did not clarify.","read":"Declining to rule it out keeps the option alive and is the main reason our number is not lower. But ambiguity is also cheaper than commitment, consistent with the threat pattern."}],"baseRate":{"value":0.007,"label":"chance of an invocation in any three-month window, implied by zero uses in the 34 years since 1992","n":34,"reference":"Computed by us with Laplace's rule of succession (1 in 36 per year, divided across four quarters), using NPR's report that the law has been invoked about 30 times since 1807, most recently in 1992.","sourceIds":["s1","s2"]},"analogues":[{"case":"George Floyd protests","year":"2020","similarity":"Nationwide unrest, president publicly weighed the Insurrection Act.","outcome":"Not invoked; Guard used under state control.","breaks":"First-term defense leadership pushed back harder, and the other legal routes had not yet been narrowed by the courts."},{"case":"Los Angeles riots","year":"1992","similarity":"Large-scale urban violence, federal troops deployed under the Insurrection Act.","outcome":"Invoked at the governor's request.","breaks":"The state asked for help. Today's scenarios mostly involve governors who oppose deployment."},{"case":"Minneapolis ICE protests","year":"2026","similarity":"Same president, protests against immigration enforcement, explicit invocation threat.","outcome":"Threat not carried out.","breaks":"Came before the midterm campaign and before the DHS Guard deputization plan offered an alternative."},{"case":"Trump v. Illinois","year":"2025","similarity":"Legal fight over sending federalized Guard troops into an unwilling state.","outcome":"Supreme Court denied the administration's request 6-3 in December 2025.","breaks":"Concerned a different statute. It raised, not lowered, the relative appeal of the Insurrection Act by closing the easier path."}],"scenarios":[{"name":"Invoked over election-related unrest","probability":0.03,"trigger":"Violent protests or disputes over results after November 3 in a state whose governor refuses federal help."},{"name":"Invoked over immigration enforcement clashes","probability":0.04,"trigger":"A serious attack on ICE agents or a facility in a sanctuary city, followed by a governor refusing to deploy the Guard."},{"name":"Invoked for another emergency","probability":0.01,"trigger":"Major disaster with breakdown of order, or a riot unrelated to elections or immigration."},{"name":"Threats and workarounds, no invocation","probability":0.62,"trigger":"New threats, Guard deputization or other deployments under different authorities, but no formal invocation."},{"name":"Quiet period, no escalation","probability":0.3,"trigger":"Midterm passes without major unrest and the issue fades."}],"signposts":[{"signal":"A drafted Insurrection Act proclamation is reported, or the Justice Department issues an opinion on invoking it","direction":"up","effect":"+15 to +25 points"},{"signal":"Large-scale violence in a major city tied to ICE operations or election results","direction":"up","effect":"+10 points"},{"signal":"The DHS Guard deputization plan is put into operation in a state with a cooperative governor","direction":"down","effect":"-2 points, as a substitute"},{"signal":"Election Day and certification pass without major unrest","direction":"down","effect":"to about 3%"}],"market":{"source":"Kalshi","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxinsurrection","probability":0.15,"asOf":"2026-09-26","gapRead":"The Kalshi contract for invocation before 2027 last traded at 15 cents with a 15 to 16 cent spread and heavy volume. The market's longer contract through January 2029 trades near 41 cents. We think the short-dated price overweights the midterm scenario given a record of threats that never converted."},"stats":[{"value":"about 30","label":"times the Insurrection Act has been invoked since 1807","sourceId":"s1"},{"value":"1992","label":"year of the last invocation, during the Los Angeles riots","sourceId":"s2"},{"value":"17 of 45","label":"presidents who have used the law, per a Brennan Center count","sourceId":"s3"},{"value":"150 years","label":"since the law was last meaningfully updated","sourceId":"s4"},{"value":"50 days","label":"or fewer left before the midterm when NPR reported rising fears of military deployment","sourceId":"s5"}],"sources":[{"id":"s1","title":"Trump threatened to invoke the Insurrection Act (again). What is it?","publisher":"NPR","url":"https://www.npr.org/2026/01/15/nx-s1-5678612/minneapolis-insurrection-act-trump-threats","published":"2026-01-15","quote":"Since President Thomas Jefferson signed it into law in 1807, the Insurrection Act has been invoked only about 30 times"},{"id":"s2","title":"Trump threatened to invoke the Insurrection Act (again). What is it?","publisher":"NPR","url":"https://www.npr.org/2026/01/15/nx-s1-5678612/minneapolis-insurrection-act-trump-threats","published":"2026-01-15","quote":"The last instance was over three decades ago, during the 1992 Los Angeles riots"},{"id":"s3","title":"Trump threatened to invoke the Insurrection Act (again). What is it?","publisher":"NPR","url":"https://www.npr.org/2026/01/15/nx-s1-5678612/minneapolis-insurrection-act-trump-threats","published":"2026-01-15","quote":"only 17 out of 45 presidents"},{"id":"s4","title":"The Insurrection Act, Explained","publisher":"Brennan Center for Justice","url":"https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/insurrection-act-explained","published":"2025-11-12","quote":"the law, which has not been meaningfully updated in over 150 years, is dangerously overbroad and ripe for abuse"},{"id":"s5","title":"Fears grow that Trump could use military to influence the upcoming election","publisher":"NPR","url":"https://www.npr.org/2026/09/17/nx-s1-5969937/fears-grow-that-trump-could-use-military-to-influence-the-upcoming-election","published":"2026-09-17","quote":"The election is less than 50 days away, and there is growing concern that President Trump could deploy federalized National Guard troops"},{"id":"s6","title":"What is the Insurrection Act? Here's what Trump has said about using it","publisher":"PBS News","url":"https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/what-is-the-insurrection-act-heres-what-trump-has-said-about-using-it","published":"2026-01-15","quote":"We're trying to do it in a nicer manner, but we can always use the Insurrection Act if we want"}],"hash":"f9033289aeecbd9baf39b59bddf31ca1795f1d2c2f9318eb8a0b4221935ad423"}],"faqs":[{"question":"Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act before the midterms?","answer":"The TPG Forecast Desk puts the chance at 8% that President Trump invokes the Insurrection Act before January 1, 2027, a window that includes the November 3 midterm. He has threatened to use it at least four times since 2020 without doing so, and his administration has favored workarounds such as federalizing or deputizing National Guard troops."},{"question":"When was the Insurrection Act last used?","answer":"The Insurrection Act was last invoked in 1992, during the Los Angeles riots, at the request of California's governor. It has been used only about 30 times since 1807. No president has invoked it in the more than three decades since, including during the 2020 protests, when President Trump threatened to but did not."},{"question":"What does the Insurrection Act allow the president to do?","answer":"The Insurrection Act lets the president deploy active-duty troops or federalized National Guard inside the United States to suppress insurrection or enforce federal law, even over a governor's objection. Unlike ordinary Guard deployments, it allows troops to carry out law enforcement tasks such as arrests and searches, which the Posse Comitatus Act otherwise bars."},{"question":"Can troops be sent to polling places in 2026?","answer":"No. Federal law makes it illegal for the president to send troops or armed federal agents to polling places, and legal experts say the Insurrection Act does not override that. The chairman of the Joint Chiefs has said there are no plans to send troops to the polls. Governors can use their own Guard to support election logistics."}],"resolved":null,"url":"https://www.thepoliticalgroup.com/forecasts/will-trump-invoke-the-insurrection-act-before-2027"},{"slug":"will-vivek-ramaswamy-win-the-ohio-governor-race","question":"Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2026 Ohio governor's race?","short":"Ramaswamy wins Ohio governor race","pillar":"domestic","topics":["elections-2026"],"created":"2026-09-26","resolution":{"criteria":"Resolves YES if Vivek Ramaswamy (R) receives the most votes in the November 3, 2026 general election for governor of Ohio, as shown by the Ohio Secretary of State's certified results or, before certification, an Associated Press race call that is not reversed. Resolves NO if Amy Acton (D) or any other candidate wins.","deadline":"2026-12-31","judgedBy":"Ohio Secretary of State certified results and Associated Press race call"},"whyItMatters":"Ohio's next governor will sign or veto the state budget, shape abortion and public health policy after the 2023 constitutional amendment, and appoint officials who help run elections in a state of nearly 12 million people.","impact":[{"audience":"Ohio families and taxpayers","effect":"The next governor writes the two-year state budget with a Republican legislature. An Acton win would put a Democratic veto over that legislature for the first time since 2010; a Ramaswamy win keeps the budget, tax and spending agenda in unified Republican hands."},{"audience":"Health care and public health","effect":"Acton, the former state health director, would bring a public health focus to the governor's office. A Ramaswamy administration would likely keep Ohio aligned with the Trump administration on federal health program changes."},{"audience":"Schools and parents","effect":"The governor proposes K through 12 funding and school choice spending in each biennial budget; the outcome sets that direction through 2030."},{"audience":"National politics","effect":"A Ramaswamy win would make a nationally known Trump ally the governor of a large Midwestern state. An Acton win in a state Trump carried three times would signal the depth of the 2026 swing."}],"versions":[{"version":1,"published":"2026-09-26T07:36:07Z","cutoff":"2026-09-26","probability":0.45,"range":[0.34,0.57],"call":"Toss up, slight lean to Acton","headline":"As of September 26, 2026, we give Republican Vivek Ramaswamy a 45 percent chance of winning Ohio's governor race. Ohio has not elected a Democratic governor since 2006, but Democrat Amy Acton leads the RealClear Polling average 47.5 to 46.5 and is better liked, in a national environment running about eight points toward Democrats.","lenses":{"psychology":["Voters in an open-seat governor race are choosing a manager, and they weigh temperament and trust more than in a federal race. Acton, whom Gov. Mike DeWine appointed state health director, is viewed more favorably than Ramaswamy: in the Bowling Green State University poll her net rating is minus 1 against his minus 11. Ramaswamy brings national fame, tech money and the president's alliance, which energizes the Republican base but ties him to an administration that is unpopular in Ohio right now.","Voters also carry an expectation. The same poll found 62 percent think Ramaswamy will win, nearly double Acton's 36 percent, even though more said they would vote for her. That gap between belief and preference often reflects a state's recent habit of voting Republican, and it can pull soft voters back to the familiar side late in a campaign."],"history":["The reference class is Ohio governor races since 1990. Republicans won 8 of those 9; the only Democratic win was Ted Strickland in 2006, by 61 to 37 percent. That exception is the closest analogue: 2006 was a midterm with an unpopular Republican president, an unpopular war and scandal fatigue in the state party, conditions that echo 2026.","The analogy breaks on how far Ohio has moved since then. Trump carried the state in 2016, 2020 and 2024, and in 2024 Sherrod Brown lost his Senate seat. In 2018, a strong Democratic year nationally, DeWine still beat Richard Cordray by about four points. Ohio's baseline is now several points more Republican than in 2006, so a national wave has to be large to overcome it."],"statistics":["Start from the base rate: Republicans won 8 of 9 Ohio governor races since 1990, about 89 percent. Adjust down for an open seat in a midterm that is hostile to the president's party, where the out party historically gains governorships: minus 15 points, to a structural prior of about 74 percent. That prior already carries Ohio's recent record of polls understating Republicans.","Now blend in the polls. A candidate trailing by one to three points in late September wins roughly 40 percent of the time, so weighting the polls two thirds and the structural prior one third gives (74 x 1/3) + (40 x 2/3), about 51 percent. Subtract about 6 points because late deciders in midterms tend to break against the president's party and Acton holds a 10 point net favorability edge. That lands at 45 percent for Ramaswamy, close to the Kalshi price of 42 percent and well inside any reasonable error band."]},"betweenTheLines":[{"type":"costly","signal":"Ramaswamy has turned his national name recognition and tech connections into a record fundraising haul for November advertising.","read":"Money is his largest structural advantage. If he still trails after saturating the airwaves in October, it will be because Ohio voters are rejecting the national brand, not because they do not know him."},{"type":"tone","signal":"Ramaswamy's campaign answered Acton's poll lead by listing past Democrats who looked safe in Ohio polls and lost.","read":"Leaning on the state's history rather than on his own numbers suggests the campaign sees its best argument as partisanship and polling error, not persuasion."},{"type":"sequencing","signal":"Ohio's Senate race between Jon Husted and Sherrod Brown is tied in the same BGSU poll.","read":"The two races will likely move together. If late Senate polling breaks toward Husted, Ramaswamy almost certainly rises with it; ticket splitting in Ohio has become less common."}],"baseRate":{"value":0.89,"label":"of Ohio governor races since 1990 won by the Republican (8 of 9)","n":9,"reference":"Computed by TPG from Ohio gubernatorial results 1990 to 2022; Ballotpedia notes the last Democratic winner was Ted Strickland in 2006.","sourceIds":["v2"]},"analogues":[{"case":"Strickland wins open seat","year":"2006","similarity":"Open seat, midterm under an unpopular Republican president during an unpopular war.","outcome":"Democrat Ted Strickland won 61 to 37 percent.","breaks":"Ohio's partisan baseline has shifted several points toward Republicans since 2006."},{"case":"DeWine holds off Cordray","year":"2018","similarity":"Trump's first midterm, a strong Democratic national environment and a competitive open-seat race.","outcome":"Republican Mike DeWine won by about four points.","breaks":"DeWine was a long-tenured, moderate-branded statewide figure; Ramaswamy is a first-time candidate with a sharper national profile and higher unfavorable ratings."}],"scenarios":[{"name":"Republican lean reasserts: Ramaswamy by 3 or more","probability":0.25,"trigger":"Late Republican consolidation and a polling miss similar to recent Ohio cycles."},{"name":"Narrow Ramaswamy win","probability":0.2,"trigger":"Money advantage and partisanship edge out Acton's favorability by a point or two."},{"name":"Narrow Acton win","probability":0.33,"trigger":"The race stays tied and the national environment tips it, with Brown running close in the Senate race."},{"name":"Acton wave: Acton by 4 or more","probability":0.22,"trigger":"The generic ballot widens past D+8 and gas prices keep Ohio swing voters angry at the president's party."}],"signposts":[{"signal":"Ramaswamy leads in two or more quality October polls","direction":"up","effect":"+8 points"},{"signal":"Husted opens a clear lead over Brown in the Senate race","direction":"up","effect":"+5 points"},{"signal":"Acton's lead in the RealClear average reaches three points","direction":"down","effect":"-7 points"},{"signal":"An Iran ceasefire and falling gas prices before early voting ends","direction":"up","effect":"+4 points"}],"market":{"source":"Kalshi","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/govpartyoh","probability":0.42,"asOf":"2026-09-26","gapRead":"We are three points above the market on Ramaswamy, a small gap. We give slightly more weight to Ohio's Republican baseline and its recent history of polls understating Republicans."},"stats":[{"value":"47.5% to 46.5%","label":"Acton over Ramaswamy in the RealClear Polling average, Sept 22","sourceId":"v1"},{"value":"48% to 45%","label":"Acton over Ramaswamy in the September BGSU/YouGov poll","sourceId":"v3"},{"value":"2006","label":"last time Ohio elected a Democratic governor","sourceId":"v2"},{"value":"62%","label":"of Ohio voters who expect Ramaswamy to win, whatever their own vote","sourceId":"v5"},{"value":"-11 vs -1","label":"net favorability, Ramaswamy vs Acton","sourceId":"v4"}],"sources":[{"id":"v1","title":"Amy Acton (D) and Vivek Ramaswamy (R) to face off in toss-up election for Governor of Ohio","publisher":"Ballotpedia News","url":"https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/09/23/amy-acton-d-and-vivek-ramaswamy-r-to-face-off-in-toss-up-election-for-governor-of-ohio/","published":"2026-09-23","quote":"average polling for the race was Acton with 47.5% of the vote and Ramaswamy with 46.5%."},{"id":"v2","title":"Amy Acton (D) and Vivek Ramaswamy (R) to face off in toss-up election for Governor of Ohio","publisher":"Ballotpedia News","url":"https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/09/23/amy-acton-d-and-vivek-ramaswamy-r-to-face-off-in-toss-up-election-for-governor-of-ohio/","published":"2026-09-23","quote":"Ohio voters last elected a Democratic governor in 2006 when Ted Strickland (D) defeated J. Kenneth Blackwell (R) 61%-37%."},{"id":"v3","title":"BGSU Poll: September 2026 Ohio poll","publisher":"Bowling Green State University","url":"https://www.bgsu.edu/arts-and-sciences/democracy-and-public-policy-research-network/bgsu-poll.html","published":"2026-09-16","quote":"Democrat Amy Acton holds a 3-point edge over Republican Vivek Ramaswamy for Governor (48% to 45%)"},{"id":"v4","title":"BGSU Poll: September 2026 Ohio poll","publisher":"Bowling Green State University","url":"https://www.bgsu.edu/arts-and-sciences/democracy-and-public-policy-research-network/bgsu-poll.html","published":"2026-09-16","quote":"Vivek Ramaswamy and Jon Husted each have a net favorability rating of -11, while Amy Acton holds a net favorability rating of -1."},{"id":"v5","title":"Acton ahead of Ramaswamy in latest Ohio gubernatorial polling","publisher":"Washington Examiner","url":"https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/campaigns/state/4729492/acton-ramaswamy-ohio-gubernatorial-polling/","published":"2026-09-16","quote":"He polled at 62%, nearly double Acton"},{"id":"v6","title":"Amy Acton (D) and Vivek Ramaswamy (R) to face off in toss-up election for Governor of Ohio","publisher":"Ballotpedia News","url":"https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/09/23/amy-acton-d-and-vivek-ramaswamy-r-to-face-off-in-toss-up-election-for-governor-of-ohio/","published":"2026-09-23","quote":"Ramaswamy has parlayed his national name recognition, tech industry connections and alliance with President Donald Trump into a record fundraising haul"}],"hash":"8df2d163837055e666279340bcc317205b1f75956d600806524921083a8c5eb8"}],"faqs":[{"question":"Who is winning the Ohio governor race in 2026?","answer":"As of September 26, 2026, the Ohio governor's race between Democrat Amy Acton and Republican Vivek Ramaswamy is a toss up. Acton leads the RealClear Polling average 47.5 to 46.5 percent and leads the September BGSU poll 48 to 45. We give Ramaswamy a 45 percent chance because Ohio has leaned Republican for two decades."},{"question":"Is Vivek Ramaswamy going to be governor of Ohio?","answer":"It is close to a coin flip. As of September 26, 2026, we put Vivek Ramaswamy's chance at 45 percent. He has a record fundraising haul and runs in a state Trump won three times, but he trails Amy Acton narrowly in polls and has a worse net favorability rating, minus 11 against her minus 1."},{"question":"Who is Amy Acton?","answer":"Amy Acton is the Democratic nominee for Ohio governor in 2026. A physician, she served as director of the Ohio Department of Health after Gov. Mike DeWine appointed her in 2019, and she led the state's public health response in the early months of the Covid pandemic. She faces Republican Vivek Ramaswamy on November 3."},{"question":"When did Ohio last elect a Democratic governor?","answer":"Ohio last elected a Democratic governor in 2006, when Ted Strickland defeated Republican J. Kenneth Blackwell 61 to 37 percent. Republicans have won every Ohio governor race since, including Mike DeWine's wins in 2018 and 2022. Gov. DeWine is term limited in 2026, leaving the seat open."}],"resolved":null,"url":"https://www.thepoliticalgroup.com/forecasts/will-vivek-ramaswamy-win-the-ohio-governor-race"},{"slug":"will-democrats-win-the-house-in-2026","question":"Will Democrats win control of the U.S. House in the 2026 midterm elections?","short":"Democrats win the House in 2026","pillar":"domestic","topics":["elections-2026","us-congress"],"created":"2026-09-26","resolution":{"criteria":"Resolves YES if Democratic candidates win at least 218 of the 435 U.S. House seats in the November 3, 2026 general election (including any later runoffs), as called by the Associated Press or shown in certified state results. Resolves NO if Republicans win 218 or more seats, or if Democrats finish below 218.","deadline":"2027-01-03","judgedBy":"Associated Press race calls and certified state results, confirmed by the party breakdown reported by the Clerk of the U.S. House when the 120th Congress convenes"},"whyItMatters":"The House majority decides which party sets the investigative agenda, writes the spending bills that avert or trigger shutdowns, and can block or pass the president's priorities for the final two years of his term.","impact":[{"audience":"Taxpayers and families","effect":"A Democratic House would make further party-line tax and spending packages through reconciliation very unlikely before 2029, freezing current tax law in place unless both parties agree. A Republican hold keeps that path open."},{"audience":"People who rely on health coverage","effect":"A Democratic majority would control the House Appropriations and Energy and Commerce agendas, making cuts to Medicaid or marketplace subsidies much harder to pass. A Republican hold leaves those programs open to further changes."},{"audience":"Federal workers and contractors","effect":"Divided government raises the odds of hard budget standoffs, because every funding bill would need a Democratic House and a Republican Senate and White House to agree. Shutdown risk rises in fiscal 2028 talks."},{"audience":"The administration","effect":"A Democratic House gains subpoena power over executive agencies, the Iran war, tariffs and spending, and could open impeachment inquiries. A Republican hold keeps oversight in friendly hands."},{"audience":"Businesses and markets","effect":"Gridlock usually means fewer large legislative surprises; investors would price in slower policy change and more fights over the debt limit and appropriations."}],"versions":[{"version":1,"published":"2026-09-26T07:36:07Z","cutoff":"2026-09-26","probability":0.88,"range":[0.8,0.94],"call":"Very likely Democratic House","headline":"As of September 26, 2026, we put the chance that Democrats win the House at 88 percent. They need a net gain of only three seats, lead the generic ballot by about eight points, and face a president near 33 percent approval. New Republican-drawn maps are the main reason this is not higher.","lenses":{"psychology":["Midterms are referendums on the party in the White House. Voters who are unhappy with prices, gas costs tied to the Iran war and the direction of the country have one lever in November: the House ballot. That thermostatic reflex shows up in the enthusiasm gap. In the Strength In Numbers/Verasight poll, Democrats lead by 9 among registered voters but by 12 among those who say they will definitely vote, which is the signature of a motivated out party.","Behavior on the public record points the same way. A record number of House members are leaving, and NPR counts close to 100 lawmakers from this Congress who will not return. Members of a majority that expects to keep power rarely walk away in such numbers. Republicans in tight races have also started breaking with the president on the Iran war and gas prices, which is what candidates do when they believe the national brand is a liability rather than an asset."],"history":["The reference class is every midterm since 1946. The president's party lost House seats in 18 of those 20 elections. The two exceptions, 1998 and 2002, came with approval ratings in the 60s. In every midterm since 1950 where the president's late August Gallup approval was under 50 percent, his party lost House seats, and the median loss was about 29 seats, according to the American Presidency Project table.","The closest analogue is 2018, Trump's first midterm, when Democrats gained 41 seats with a generic ballot lead of roughly the size seen today. The analogy breaks on the map. Mid-decade redistricting in Texas, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, Florida and other states has added Republican-leaning seats, and Wikipedia's tally of the new maps nets about 12 Republican seats against 1 Democratic seat. That raises the bar for Democrats, though analyst Kyle Kondik judged the overall seat bias similar to 2018's."],"statistics":["Start from the base rate: the president's party lost House seats in 90 percent of postwar midterms. Democrats need a net gain of three, so nearly any loss of that size flips the chamber. Adjust up for conditions: approval in the 30s matches the weakest readings in the postwar record, 1946 and 1950, and the Silver Bulletin generic ballot average is D+8.1, which alone implies a Democratic popular vote win of historic size. That pushes the raw number to about 95 percent.","Adjust down for structure. New Republican-drawn maps may cost Democrats several seats relative to 2024 lines, and Cook still rates 23 races as Toss Ups, 17 of them Republican held, with Democrats favored in 208 and Republicans in 205. Subtracting about 7 points for redistricting and polling error lands at 88 percent. The Kalshi market at 92 percent is slightly more confident; we hold a bit more room for a late rally tied to an Iran ceasefire or falling gas prices."]},"betweenTheLines":[{"type":"costly","signal":"Democratic-aligned House Majority PAC has $224 million in ad reservations against $174 million for the Republican Congressional Leadership Fund.","read":"Reservations are real money committed to specific markets. A $50 million edge for the out party is unusual and means Democrats can contest Republican seats rather than just defend their own."},{"type":"personnel","signal":"Record retirements and primary defeats mean close to 100 members from this Congress will not return.","read":"Retirements are the most honest poll in Washington. Members with inside data are choosing not to face this electorate, and open seats are easier to flip than incumbent-held ones."},{"type":"tone","signal":"Republicans in competitive races, including Senate nominees, are publicly calling for the Iran war to end as gas prices climb.","read":"Distancing from the party leader is a costly move inside a primary-dominated party. Candidates do it only when their own polling shows the national message is sinking them."},{"type":"omission","signal":"The president has pledged $5,000 to every U.S. adult if his party wins the midterms.","read":"When the majority party stops running on its record and offers a conditional payment instead, it is signaling that the record is not selling."}],"baseRate":{"value":0.9,"label":"of postwar midterms (1946 to 2022) in which the president's party lost House seats","n":20,"reference":"The Conversation's count of the 20 midterms since 1946, cross-checked against the American Presidency Project table of seat changes and Gallup approval by midterm year.","sourceIds":["s4","s7"]},"analogues":[{"case":"Trump's first midterm","year":"2018","similarity":"Same president, approval in the high 30s to low 40s, a large generic ballot deficit and a wave of Republican retirements.","outcome":"Democrats gained 41 seats and the majority.","breaks":"The 2026 maps are more Republican after mid-decade redistricting, so the same vote margin buys Democrats fewer seats."},{"case":"Bush's second midterm","year":"2006","similarity":"An unpopular war abroad, a president in the high 30s and a majority weighed down by its own record.","outcome":"Democrats gained 30 seats and took the House.","breaks":"In 2006 Republicans held a large cushion; today Democrats need only three seats, which makes a flip easier than in 2006."},{"case":"Clinton's first midterm","year":"1994","similarity":"A president's party with a thin record on the top voter concern facing an energized opposition.","outcome":"Republicans gained 54 seats.","breaks":"1994 involved a long-term realignment in the South; 2026 is a referendum without that regional sorting underneath it."}],"scenarios":[{"name":"Wave: Democrats gain 15 or more seats","probability":0.4,"trigger":"The generic ballot stays near D+8 or widens as gas prices stay high and the Iran war continues into November."},{"name":"Working majority: Democrats gain 3 to 14 seats","probability":0.48,"trigger":"Republican-drawn maps hold several seats, but Democrats win most of the 23 Toss Ups, matching Cook's 220 to 230 seat range."},{"name":"Republicans hold narrowly","probability":0.12,"trigger":"A late rally, such as an Iran ceasefire and falling fuel prices, plus a polling miss and redistricting gains let Republicans keep 218 or more."}],"signposts":[{"signal":"Generic ballot average falls below D+4 by mid October","direction":"down","effect":"-10 points"},{"signal":"Congressional Leadership Fund cancels reservations in Republican-held Toss Up seats to protect Lean Republican seats","direction":"up","effect":"+4 points"},{"signal":"An Iran ceasefire with national average gas prices falling sharply before early voting peaks","direction":"down","effect":"-6 points"},{"signal":"Cook moves five or more additional Republican-held seats toward Democrats","direction":"up","effect":"+3 points"}],"market":{"source":"Kalshi","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/controlh","probability":0.92,"asOf":"2026-09-26","gapRead":"We are four points below the market. Traders price the national environment heavily; we keep extra weight on the new Republican-drawn maps and on October surprises tied to the Iran war, which could move gas prices quickly in either direction."},"stats":[{"value":"3","label":"net seats Democrats need to win the House majority","sourceId":"s1"},{"value":"D+8.1","label":"Silver Bulletin generic ballot average, late September","sourceId":"s3"},{"value":"33%","label":"Trump job approval in the September Verasight poll, a new low","sourceId":"s5"},{"value":"18","label":"of the 20 midterms since 1946 cost the president's party House seats","sourceId":"s4"},{"value":"$224M vs $174M","label":"Democratic vs Republican House super PAC ad reservations","sourceId":"s2"},{"value":"5.6 pts","label":"average shift toward Democrats in state legislative special elections since 2025","sourceId":"s8"}],"sources":[{"id":"s1","title":"Cook Political Report projects Democrats will take control of the House as races shift","publisher":"Washington Examiner","url":"https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/campaigns/congressional/4742693/cook-political-report-projects-democrats-control-house-2026-elections/","published":"2026-09-25","quote":"Democrats currently hold 215 House seats and need a net gain of just three seats to secure a majority."},{"id":"s2","title":"Cook Political Report projects Democrats will take control of the House as races shift","publisher":"Washington Examiner","url":"https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/campaigns/congressional/4742693/cook-political-report-projects-democrats-control-house-2026-elections/","published":"2026-09-25","quote":"The Congressional Leadership Fund has $174 million reserved, while the Democratic-aligned House Majority PAC has $224 million reserved."},{"id":"s3","title":"Generic Congressional Ballot: Latest Polls","publisher":"Silver Bulletin","url":"https://www.natesilver.net/p/generic-ballot-average-2026-nate-silver-bulletin-congress-polls","published":"2026-09-25","quote":"It applies a likely voter adjustment, which in this case benefits Democrats and moves their lead from D +8.1 to D +8.8."},{"id":"s4","title":"For 80 years, the president's party has almost always lost House seats in midterm elections","publisher":"The Conversation","url":"https://theconversation.com/for-80-years-the-presidents-party-has-almost-always-lost-house-seats-in-midterm-elections-a-pattern-that-makes-the-2026-congressional-outlook-clear-271605","published":"2026-01-19","quote":"In 18 of them, the president’s party lost seats in the House of Representatives."},{"id":"s5","title":"Poll: Trump's approval hits a new low of 33% as Republicans sour","publisher":"Strength In Numbers (G. Elliott Morris)","url":"https://www.gelliottmorris.com/p/2026-09-23-september-strength-in-numbers-verasight-poll-release","published":"2026-09-23","quote":"In our new poll, 33% of Americans approve of the job Donald Trump is doing as president and 63% disapprove"},{"id":"s6","title":"2025 to 2026 United States redistricting","publisher":"Wikipedia","url":"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025%E2%80%932026_United_States_redistricting","published":"2026-09-26","quote":"Net 12 Republican and 1 Democratic seats established."},{"id":"s7","title":"Seats in Congress Gained/Lost by the President's Party in Mid-Term Elections","publisher":"The American Presidency Project, UC Santa Barbara","url":"https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/statistics/data/seats-congress-gainedlost-the-presidents-party-mid-term-elections","published":"2026-07-13","quote":"Beginning with Obama, job approval is the average job approval during the noted half month period."},{"id":"s8","title":"State legislative special elections show shift toward Democrats compared to previous regular elections","publisher":"Ballotpedia News","url":"https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/02/26/state-legislative-special-elections-show-shift-toward-democrats-compared-to-previous-regular-elections/","published":"2026-02-26","quote":"In the state legislative special elections that have happened since January 2025, there was an average shift of 5.6 percentage points towards Democrats."},{"id":"s9","title":"Who in Congress is not running for reelection in 2026?","publisher":"NPR","url":"https://www.npr.org/2026/09/16/nx-s1-5971264/congress-retirement-2026-house-senate-primary-defeat","published":"2026-09-16","quote":"close to 100 lawmakers who started this Congress will not be around for the next one"}],"hash":"735a5ac40eeea15fa48fadcc599846548f2b3462e39f2ea8b57f08928d6e5a35"}],"faqs":[{"question":"Who will win the House in 2026?","answer":"As of September 26, 2026, Democrats are strong favorites to win the House, with an 88 percent chance in our forecast. They need a net gain of only three seats, lead the generic congressional ballot by about eight points, and face a president with approval in the 30s. New Republican-drawn maps in several states are the main thing keeping Republicans in the race."},{"question":"How many seats do Democrats need to flip the House in 2026?","answer":"Democrats need a net gain of three seats to reach the 218-seat majority, according to the Cook Political Report's September 2026 analysis. Cook rates 23 races as Toss Ups, 17 of them held by Republicans, and expects Democrats to gain between five and 15 seats, which would give them 220 to 230 seats."},{"question":"Does the president's party usually lose seats in the midterms?","answer":"Yes. Since 1946 the president's party has lost House seats in 18 of 20 midterm elections. The only exceptions, 1998 and 2002, came when the president's approval was in the 60s. In every midterm since 1950 with the president's late August approval under 50 percent, his party lost House seats, with a median loss of about 29."},{"question":"Did redistricting help Republicans keep the House in 2026?","answer":"Mid-decade redistricting helped Republicans on paper. Texas, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio and other states drew new maps that add Republican-leaning seats, partly offset by California's new Democratic map. The gain raises the bar for Democrats, but with a generic ballot lead near eight points, most forecasters still expect Democrats to win the majority."}],"resolved":null,"url":"https://www.thepoliticalgroup.com/forecasts/will-democrats-win-the-house-in-2026"},{"slug":"will-republicans-keep-the-senate-in-2026","question":"Will Republicans keep control of the U.S. Senate in the 2026 midterm elections?","short":"Republicans keep the Senate in 2026","pillar":"domestic","topics":["elections-2026","us-congress"],"created":"2026-09-26","resolution":{"criteria":"Resolves YES if, after the November 3, 2026 elections and any runoffs, Republicans control the Senate of the 120th Congress: at least 51 senators who caucus with Republicans, or exactly 50 with Vice President JD Vance breaking ties. Resolves NO if 51 or more senators caucus with Democrats. An independent's seat counts for the party whose conference that senator joins or votes with to organize the chamber.","deadline":"2027-01-03","judgedBy":"Associated Press race calls, certified state results and the Senate organizing resolution adopted when the 120th Congress convenes"},"whyItMatters":"Senate control decides whether the president's judicial and cabinet nominees get confirmed, whether a Democratic House's bills can reach his desk, and who runs Senate investigations for 2027 and 2028.","impact":[{"audience":"People following the courts","effect":"A Republican Senate keeps confirming the president's judges, including any Supreme Court vacancy. A Democratic Senate could block or slow nominees for the final two years of the term."},{"audience":"Taxpayers","effect":"If Republicans keep the Senate but lose the House, party-line tax bills stop; if they keep both, another reconciliation package stays possible. A Democratic Senate ends that option."},{"audience":"Federal workers and agency users","effect":"A split Congress raises shutdown risk in each funding fight, since the House, Senate and White House would each hold a veto point."},{"audience":"Military families and foreign policy watchers","effect":"A Democratic Senate would control war powers debates and hearings on the Iran war, and could force more votes on ending it. A Republican Senate keeps that agenda with the president's allies."},{"audience":"Cabinet and agency officials","effect":"A Democratic Senate would hold confirmation power over any replacements and gain subpoena power through its committees."}],"versions":[{"version":1,"published":"2026-09-26T07:36:07Z","cutoff":"2026-09-26","probability":0.42,"range":[0.32,0.52],"call":"Lean Democratic takeover, still close","headline":"As of September 26, 2026, we give Republicans a 42 percent chance of keeping the Senate. They hold 53 seats, so Democrats must net four, but a roughly eight point Democratic national environment has put Republican seats in North Carolina, Maine, Ohio, Alaska and Texas at real risk, while Democrats look safe in Georgia.","lenses":{"psychology":["Senate races are more candidate driven than House races, but a strong national tide pulls on all of them. Voters angry about gas prices and the Iran war are looking for a check on the president, and the Senate is the other half of that check. Republican Senate candidates such as Ohio Sen. Jon Husted, Iowa nominee Ashley Hinson and Michigan nominee Mike Rogers have publicly called for the war to end, which shows they read the same mood in their own numbers.","Party committees reveal their beliefs through triage. A Republican super PAC pulled $6.5 million in October reservations from North Carolina, a sign it no longer sees Michael Whatley's race against Roy Cooper as the best use of money. Money moved out of a must-win seat means the party is choosing where to make its stand, and that choice narrows the Republican path to holding 50."],"history":["The reference class is the 20 midterms since 1946. The president's party lost four or more Senate seats in 10 of them, so a four-seat Democratic net gain is a coin flip in the raw record. Conditioning on unpopular presidents helps: in the 10 midterms since 1950 when the president's late August approval was under 50 percent, his party lost four or more Senate seats six times, per the American Presidency Project table.","The closest analogue is 2006, when an unpopular war and a president in the high 30s cost Republicans six Senate seats and the majority, several of them in states the president had carried. The analogy breaks on geography. In 2026 Democrats must win in places like Ohio, Alaska, Iowa and Texas, which Trump carried comfortably in 2024, and Senate map luck matters more than House swing. The 2018 midterm is the warning: Democrats won the House big but lost Senate seats because the map ran through red states."],"statistics":["Start at 40 percent for a Republican hold, the share of unpopular-president midterms since 1950 in which the president's party avoided losing four or more Senate seats. Then build the map. Kalshi prices Democrats at about 94 percent in North Carolina, 70 percent in Alaska, 63 percent in Maine, 60 percent in Texas, 59 percent in Ohio and 45 percent in Iowa, while pricing Democratic holds in Georgia, New Hampshire, Minnesota and Michigan between 73 and 94 percent. Summed across every seat Kalshi prices, that implies an expected Democratic net gain of about four seats.","Because the fourth and fifth Democratic pickups sit near 60 percent and these races move together, the chance Democrats fall short of four is well above zero. Nate Silver's model gave Democrats 58.6 percent on September 14 and Cook calls the chamber a true toss up with a Democratic range of one to five seats. Averaging our structural build, the model and the market (Republicans at 38 percent), and adding a small edge for the 50-50 Vance tiebreak and Dan Osborn's independent bid in Nebraska, we land at 42 percent."]},"betweenTheLines":[{"type":"costly","signal":"A key Republican super PAC removed $6.5 million in October ad reservations from the North Carolina Senate race.","read":"Cancelling time in a top-tier state is triage. It concedes North Carolina is slipping and frees money for Maine, Ohio or Texas, which tells you the party believes it can lose one seat but not more."},{"type":"costly","signal":"In Georgia, Jon Ossoff has over $42.5 million in cash on hand against just over $2 million for Republican Mike Collins, and Cook moved the race to Likely Democrat.","read":"Republicans' best Democratic-held target is effectively off the board. Without a pickup, Republicans must win nearly every close seat they defend."},{"type":"tone","signal":"Republican Senate candidates in Ohio, Iowa and Michigan are breaking with the president on the Iran war as gas prices rise.","read":"Candidates rarely cross the leader of their own party five weeks out unless their private polling shows swing voters punishing the association."},{"type":"omission","signal":"Nebraska independent Dan Osborn has not committed to caucusing with either party.","read":"If the chamber lands at 50 Democrats plus Osborn, control could hinge on one senator's choice, which is why our resolution counts the conference he actually joins."}],"baseRate":{"value":0.5,"label":"of midterms since 1946 in which the president's party avoided a net loss of four or more Senate seats","n":20,"reference":"Computed by TPG from the American Presidency Project table of Senate seat changes by midterm year: the president's party lost four or more seats in 10 of 20 midterms from 1946 to 2022.","sourceIds":["t5","t4"]},"analogues":[{"case":"Iraq war midterm","year":"2006","similarity":"An unpopular overseas war, rising discontent and a president in the high 30s.","outcome":"Democrats gained six Senate seats and won a 51 to 49 majority with two independents.","breaks":"The 2006 map offered Democrats more targets in swing states; the 2026 path runs through several states Trump won by wide margins."},{"case":"Trump's first midterm","year":"2018","similarity":"Same president, strong Democratic House environment.","outcome":"Republicans gained two Senate seats while losing the House.","breaks":"In 2018 Democrats defended 10 seats in Trump states; in 2026 Republicans are defending 22 seats to Democrats' 13, so the map exposure is reversed."},{"case":"Obama's second midterm","year":"2014","similarity":"A six-year president's party defending red-leaning seats in a hostile environment.","outcome":"Republicans gained nine seats and the majority.","breaks":"2014 was a second-term midterm with a lower-turnout electorate; 2026 is a first midterm of a nonconsecutive second term with high Democratic enthusiasm."}],"scenarios":[{"name":"Republicans hold 51 or more seats","probability":0.3,"trigger":"Collins and Husted survive on personal brand, Texas and Iowa stay red, and Democrats net three or fewer."},{"name":"50-50 Senate, Vance breaks ties","probability":0.1,"trigger":"Democrats net exactly three pickups while holding every seat they defend."},{"name":"Independent tilt keeps Republicans in charge","probability":0.02,"trigger":"The chamber lands at 50 Democrats plus Osborn and he declines to help Democrats organize."},{"name":"Democrats net exactly four for a 51-seat majority","probability":0.3,"trigger":"Democrats win North Carolina, Alaska, Maine and one of Ohio or Texas while holding Michigan and Georgia."},{"name":"Democratic wave of five or more","probability":0.28,"trigger":"The generic ballot holds near D+8 and Democrats sweep most Toss Ups, including Texas, Ohio and Iowa."}],"signposts":[{"signal":"Senate Leadership Fund adds late money in Maine and Ohio instead of Texas","direction":"up","effect":"+3 points (defensive consolidation around the likeliest holds)"},{"signal":"Polls show Mike Rogers leading in Michigan","direction":"up","effect":"+6 points"},{"signal":"Talarico or Brown opens a lead of four or more in quality October polls","direction":"down","effect":"-6 points"},{"signal":"Osborn announces he will caucus with Democrats","direction":"down","effect":"-3 points"}],"market":{"source":"Kalshi","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/controls","probability":0.38,"asOf":"2026-09-26","gapRead":"We are four points above the market on a Republican hold. Race-by-race prices imply a Democratic net gain of about four seats, but the tipping seats sit near 60 percent and are correlated, and the Vance tiebreak means Democrats need a clear 51."},"stats":[{"value":"58.6%","label":"Democratic Senate chance in Nate Silver's model on September 14","sourceId":"t1"},{"value":"4","label":"net seats Democrats must gain; Cook's range is one to five","sourceId":"t3"},{"value":"50-50","label":"tie still means Republican control via Vice President Vance","sourceId":"t2"},{"value":"$6.5M","label":"October ad reservations a GOP super PAC pulled from North Carolina","sourceId":"t6"},{"value":"$42.5M vs $2M","label":"Ossoff vs Collins cash on hand in Georgia","sourceId":"t7"},{"value":"3","label":"Senate seats the president's party loses in an average midterm","sourceId":"t4"}],"sources":[{"id":"t1","title":"Democrats' chances of winning Senate shift on Nate Silver forecast","publisher":"Newsweek","url":"https://www.newsweek.com/democrats-chances-winning-senate-shift-nate-silver-forecast-12442493","published":"2026-09-15","quote":"gave the party a 58.6 percent chance of winning the chamber on September 14, up from 50.6 percent on September 6."},{"id":"t2","title":"Democrats' chances of winning Senate shift on Nate Silver forecast","publisher":"Newsweek","url":"https://www.newsweek.com/democrats-chances-winning-senate-shift-nate-silver-forecast-12442493","published":"2026-09-15","quote":"And a 50-50 Senate would still leave Republicans with effective control because Vice President JD Vance could break tied votes."},{"id":"t3","title":"The Fight for the Senate Is a Toss Up","publisher":"Political Wire","url":"https://politicalwire.com/2026/09/23/the-fight-for-the-senate-is-a-toss-up/","published":"2026-09-23","quote":"is Democrats netting between one and five seats; they must net four to win back the Senate."},{"id":"t4","title":"The 2026 Midterm Elections: Are Historical Data Relevant?","publisher":"The American Presidency Project, UC Santa Barbara","url":"https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/analyses/the-2026-midterm-elections-are-historical-data-relevant","published":"2026-09-12","quote":"the President's party averaged a loss of 27 House seats and 3 Senate seats"},{"id":"t5","title":"Seats in Congress Gained/Lost by the President's Party in Mid-Term Elections","publisher":"The American Presidency Project, UC Santa Barbara","url":"https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/statistics/data/seats-congress-gainedlost-the-presidents-party-mid-term-elections","published":"2026-07-13","quote":"Beginning with Obama, job approval is the average job approval during the noted half month period."},{"id":"t6","title":"Republican group slashes ad spending in NC Senate race","publisher":"Semafor","url":"https://www.semafor.com/article/09/21/2026/republican-group-slashes-ad-spending-in-nc-senate-race","published":"2026-09-21","quote":"A key Republican super PAC has removed $6.5 million in ad reservations from North Carolina"},{"id":"t7","title":"Cook Political Report shifts key Senate races toward Democrats","publisher":"Washington Examiner","url":"https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/campaigns/congressional/4738956/cook-political-report-senate-shift-democrats/","published":"2026-09-23","quote":"Ossoff has over $42.5 million in cash on hand, while Collins has just over $2 million."},{"id":"t8","title":"What history tells us about the 2026 midterm elections","publisher":"Brookings","url":"https://www.brookings.edu/articles/what-history-tells-us-about-the-2026-midterm-elections","published":"2025-08-28","quote":"Republicans are defending 22 seats next year compared to just 13 for Democrats"},{"id":"t9","title":"Why a Growing Number of Republicans Are Breaking With Trump on Iran","publisher":"TIME","url":"https://time.com/article/2026/09/23/republicans-trump-iran-war-midterms-gas-prices/","published":"2026-09-23","quote":"The war needs to come to an end as quickly as possible so that we can lower gas prices"}],"hash":"760cd45fc1563d34c0b16e7bf4fb4c4206fd37df892befa522646b59b74ab625"}],"faqs":[{"question":"Will Republicans keep the Senate in 2026?","answer":"As of September 26, 2026, Republicans are slight underdogs to keep the Senate, with a 42 percent chance in our forecast. They hold a 53 to 47 majority, so Democrats need a net gain of four seats. Democrats are favored in North Carolina and competitive in Maine, Ohio, Alaska, Texas and Iowa, while their own seat in Georgia looks safe."},{"question":"How many seats do Democrats need to win the Senate in 2026?","answer":"Democrats need a net gain of four seats to reach 51. A 50 to 50 split is not enough, because Vice President JD Vance would break ties for Republicans. The Cook Political Report's September range has Democrats netting between one and five seats, which is why it calls the chamber a true toss up."},{"question":"What are the closest Senate races in 2026?","answer":"The closest races as of late September 2026 are Maine (Susan Collins against Troy Jackson), Ohio (Jon Husted against Sherrod Brown), Texas (Ken Paxton against James Talarico), Iowa (Ashley Hinson against Josh Turek) and Alaska, with Michigan the main Democratic-held seat in play. North Carolina leans toward Democrat Roy Cooper."},{"question":"What happens if the Senate is tied 50-50?","answer":"If the Senate splits 50 to 50 after the 2026 midterms, Republicans keep control because Vice President JD Vance casts tie-breaking votes. That means Democrats must win 51 seats, or 50 plus an independent who votes with them to organize, such as Nebraska's Dan Osborn if he wins and chooses to side with them."}],"resolved":null,"url":"https://www.thepoliticalgroup.com/forecasts/will-republicans-keep-the-senate-in-2026"},{"slug":"will-the-us-raise-tariffs-on-canadian-cars-to-50-percent-by-january-2027","question":"Will the U.S. raise tariffs on Canadian cars to 50% by January 15, 2027?","short":"50% tariff on Canadian cars by Jan 15","pillar":"domestic","topics":["trade-tariffs","us-allies"],"created":"2026-09-26","resolution":{"criteria":"Resolves YES if, on or before January 15, 2027, a U.S. tariff rate of 50% or more is in effect on passenger cars or light trucks imported from Canada, under Section 232, Section 338 or any other authority, whether applied to full value or to non-U.S. content, as shown by a presidential proclamation, executive order, Federal Register notice or U.S. Customs and Border Protection guidance. Resolves NO if no such rate is in effect on January 15, 2027, including if the increase is postponed, suspended, set below 50%, or replaced by a U.S.-Canada agreement.","deadline":"2027-01-15","judgedBy":"Federal Register, White House proclamations, U.S. Customs and Border Protection guidance, and wire reports (Reuters, AP)"},"whyItMatters":"Canada supplies roughly one in twenty new vehicles sold in the U.S. and many of the parts in American-built cars, so doubling the auto tariff would raise car prices, pressure U.S. assembly plants and deepen the worst U.S.-Canada trade rupture in decades.","impact":[{"audience":"Car buyers","effect":"Canadian plants built 861,000 of the vehicles sold in the U.S. last year. A 50% tariff, double today's 25%, would raise sticker prices on those models or push them off the market, and would lift prices across the market as competing brands follow."},{"audience":"Auto workers in Michigan, Ohio and Indiana","effect":"Parts cross the border several times before final assembly. Canada's parts industry warns that without those parts, U.S. assembly would halt, putting shifts and overtime at risk if the tariff hits parts as announced."},{"audience":"Retirement accounts","effect":"Automaker stocks fell the day the threat was made, with Ford down 3.6% and Stellantis down 4.2%. Index funds hold these companies and their suppliers."},{"audience":"Farmers and exporters","effect":"Canada has already retaliated with tariffs on C$27.6 billion of U.S. goods, including dairy, farm equipment and steel. Another U.S. escalation invites another round aimed at U.S. exports."},{"audience":"Small businesses near the border","effect":"Dealers, parts distributors and logistics firms that depend on cross-border trade face tariff bills, compliance costs and uncertainty about which rules apply week to week."}],"versions":[{"version":1,"published":"2026-09-26T07:36:07Z","cutoff":"2026-09-26","probability":0.4,"range":[0.27,0.55],"call":"Real threat, but more likely delayed or dealt away","headline":"We put the chance that a 50% U.S. tariff on Canadian cars is in effect by January 15, 2027 at 40%, as of September 26, 2026. Trump has carried out most of his dated tariff threats against Canada, but auto tariffs have repeatedly been softened, and a deal that would have cut the rate to 15% came close in August.","lenses":{"psychology":["President Trump announced the increase in a Truth Social post two days after talks collapsed, pairing it with \"Build in the U.S. and there are ZERO TARIFFS.\" The threat is designed as leverage to restart talks on his terms, and the January 1 date, two months after the midterms, lets him keep it hanging without paying a price at the polls. His record against Canada is to follow through when Ottawa does not move: the Section 338 tariffs took effect only three days after their original date. But he also retreats when the other side gives him a visible win, as when Canada dropped its digital services tax in June 2025 and when Ottawa certified Gulfstream jets after his Bombardier threat.","Prime Minister Mark Carney has little domestic incentive to fold: 75% of Canadians approved of his decision to walk away from the talks, and he has said Canada will return only when Washington stops \"doing memes\" and gets serious. His audience cost for conceding under a public ultimatum is high, which lowers the odds of a quick Canadian climbdown.","The strongest brake is American industry. Parts cross the border several times, U.S. automakers and dealers pay the tariff, and auto executives told Reuters they doubt the threat because past auto tariffs were scaled back or delayed. After the midterms the White House has more freedom to escalate but also less reason to keep a fight going that hurts Michigan and Ohio plants."],"history":["Reference class: Trump's tariff threats against Canada since 2025 that named a rate and a start date. The 25% tariff due February 4, 2025 was paused for 30 days. The March 4, 2025 tariffs took effect. The 35% rate threatened for August 1, 2025 took effect. The Section 338 tariffs due August 19, 2026 took effect on August 22. That is 3 of 4 carried out within two weeks of the stated date, or 75%. Adding the threats without a firm date, such as the June 2025 digital tax fight and the January 2026 threat of up to 100% tariffs, the follow-through rate falls to about half.","Closest analogue: the March 2025 auto carve-out. When the 25% tariffs hit on March 4, 2025, autos that met USMCA rules were exempted within days after automakers warned of shutdowns, and parts relief followed. Autos are the sector where Trump's tariffs have most often been softened because U.S. plants depend on Canadian inputs.","Where it breaks. USMCA was not renewed in July 2026 and talks have been frozen since August 21, so the institutional off-ramps that produced the 2025 carve-outs are weaker. Section 338, a 1930 law unused since 1949 until this year, gives the president a quick legal route to 50% without a new investigation. And unlike 2025, Canada has already retaliated dollar for dollar, and the U.S. has answered with import bans."],"statistics":["Start at a 60% blended base rate for Trump's Canada tariff threats.","Adjustments. Down 12 points because autos are the sector most often softened: U.S. plants depend on Canadian parts and automakers lobby hard, and the March 2025 auto carve-out is the precedent. Down 8 points for the four-month runway, which leaves more room for a deal than the few weeks behind most past threats, especially since an August deal cutting the rate to 15% was reportedly close. Up 5 points because talks are frozen, both sides have escalated through September, and Section 338 makes the legal path quick. Down 5 points because no proclamation has been drafted publicly a month after the threat.","60 minus 12 minus 8 plus 5 minus 5 lands at 40%. The range of 27% to 55% reflects how quickly this dispute swings: the Section 338 tariffs went from 'not coming into effect,' in a Canadian premier's words on August 19, to in force three days later."]},"betweenTheLines":[{"type":"sequencing","signal":"The auto threat came on August 24, two days after talks collapsed, with a start date two months after the midterms.","read":"A distant date is a bargaining clock, not an implementation plan. It gives both sides four months to find a face-saving deal, and it moves any auto price shock safely past Election Day."},{"type":"costly","signal":"On September 8 the U.S. moved from 50% tariffs to outright import bans on Canadian alcohol, dairy products and larger motorcycles, effective September 29.","read":"Converting tariffs into bans is a costly escalation that shows willingness to absorb harm to U.S. importers. It raises the credibility of the January auto threat."},{"type":"cheap","signal":"Auto executives told Reuters they doubt the threat, noting past auto tariffs were scaled back or delayed, and that a January 50% tariff on all aircraft made in Canada never happened.","read":"Industry insiders are pricing a bluff. Their skepticism is informed but also self-interested; the aircraft precedent shows Trump can extract a concession without implementing."},{"type":"omission","signal":"No proclamation or Federal Register notice has been issued for the auto increase a month after the post, while White House officials say only that the plan 'remains on the table.'","read":"Every Canada tariff that actually took effect was preceded by a signed proclamation weeks in advance. Until one appears, the threat remains cheap to withdraw."}],"baseRate":{"value":0.6,"label":"blended follow-through rate on Trump's Canada tariff threats since 2025 (3 of 4 dated threats, about half of all threats)","n":6,"reference":"Computed by TPG from the Wikipedia timeline of the 2025 to 2026 U.S. trade war with Canada: dated threats for February 4, 2025 (paused), March 4, 2025 (in effect), August 1, 2025 (in effect) and August 19, 2026 (in effect August 22), plus undated threats in June 2025 and January 2026 that were not carried out. Blended to 60%.","sourceIds":["s8"]},"analogues":[{"case":"March 2025 USMCA auto carve-out","year":"2025","similarity":"Broad tariffs on Canada took effect March 4, 2025 while automakers warned of shutdowns.","outcome":"USMCA-compliant autos were exempted within days, and parts relief followed.","breaks":"USMCA was not renewed in July 2026, and the new tariffs use Section 338, which ignores USMCA status."},{"case":"Section 338 tariffs of August 2026","year":"2026","similarity":"A dated 50% threat against Canada with talks running to the deadline.","outcome":"A three-day reprieve, a collapse of talks, and the tariffs took effect August 22.","breaks":"That list covered about $20 billion of goods such as wine and hockey sticks; autos are far larger and more tied into U.S. production."},{"case":"Bombardier aircraft threat","year":"2026","similarity":"Trump threatened 50% tariffs on all aircraft made in Canada unless Ottawa certified U.S. rival Gulfstream's jets.","outcome":"Neither the tariff nor decertification happened; Canada certified several Gulfstream planes the following month.","breaks":"That demand was narrow and cheap for Canada to meet; the auto dispute involves dairy, alcohol and autos, where Carney says U.S. terms were 'unfair.'"}],"scenarios":[{"name":"Takes effect January 1 as announced","probability":0.3,"trigger":"No deal by December, a proclamation is signed in November or December, and the rate applies to vehicles from January 1."},{"name":"Takes effect after a short delay","probability":0.1,"trigger":"A last-minute reprieve of days, like August's three-day delay, followed by implementation before January 15."},{"name":"Deal replaces the threat","probability":0.3,"trigger":"Talks resume after the midterms and produce a deal close to August's terms, with Canadian car tariffs cut toward 15% in exchange for dairy, alcohol or auto concessions."},{"name":"Postponed or softened","probability":0.3,"trigger":"The White House delays past mid-January, exempts vehicles meeting U.S. content rules in full, or sets a rate below 50% after automaker pressure."}],"signposts":[{"signal":"A signed proclamation or Federal Register notice setting a 50% auto rate","direction":"up","effect":"+30 points"},{"signal":"Formal U.S.-Canada talks resume at the ministerial level","direction":"down","effect":"-12 points"},{"signal":"Detroit automakers or the UAW publicly ask for an exemption and the White House signals flexibility","direction":"down","effect":"-8 points"},{"signal":"Canada adds new retaliation, such as electricity or critical mineral export curbs","direction":"up","effect":"+10 points"},{"signal":"Trump repeats the January 1 date after the midterms","direction":"up","effect":"+8 points"}],"market":null,"stats":[{"value":"50%","label":"the promised tariff on Canadian cars, trucks and auto parts from January 1, 2027, double today's 25%","sourceId":"s1"},{"value":"861,000","label":"Canadian-built vehicles sold in the U.S. last year, 5.4% of the market","sourceId":"s2"},{"value":"15%","label":"the auto tariff rate the collapsed August deal would have set","sourceId":"s3"},{"value":"75%","label":"of Canadians approved of Carney walking away from the talks","sourceId":"s5"},{"value":"C$27.6 billion","label":"of U.S. goods hit by Canada's retaliatory tariffs from September 8","sourceId":"s6"},{"value":"4.2%","label":"drop in Stellantis shares the day of the threat; Ford fell 3.6%","sourceId":"s4"}],"sources":[{"id":"s1","title":"Trump says U.S. will hike Canada auto tariffs to 50% as trade war escalates","publisher":"CNBC","url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/24/trump-canada-auto-tariffs-trade-war.html","published":"2026-08-24","quote":"raise tariffs on imports of cars, trucks and auto parts from Canada to 50% on Jan. 1, 2027"},{"id":"s2","title":"Trump says U.S. will hike Canada auto tariffs to 50%: Canadian production","publisher":"CNBC","url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/24/trump-canada-auto-tariffs-trade-war.html","published":"2026-08-24","quote":"Vehicles produced in Canada accounted for only 5.4%, or 861,000, of total sales in the U.S. last year"},{"id":"s3","title":"Trump threatens 50% tariffs on all cars and trucks from Canada amid trade fight","publisher":"Reuters via The Spokesman-Review","url":"https://www.spokesman.com/stories/2026/aug/24/trump-threatens-50-tariffs-on-all-cars-and-trucks-/","published":"2026-08-24","quote":"would have cut the top-line tariff rate on Canadian cars and light-duty trucks from 25% to 15%"},{"id":"s4","title":"Trump threatens 50% tariffs on all cars and trucks from Canada: auto stocks","publisher":"Reuters via The Spokesman-Review","url":"https://www.spokesman.com/stories/2026/aug/24/trump-threatens-50-tariffs-on-all-cars-and-trucks-/","published":"2026-08-24","quote":"Shares of Ford and Stellantis were down 3.6% and 4.2%, respectively"},{"id":"s5","title":"Trump threatens 50% tariffs on all cars and trucks from Canada: Canadian opinion","publisher":"Reuters via The Spokesman-Review","url":"https://www.spokesman.com/stories/2026/aug/24/trump-threatens-50-tariffs-on-all-cars-and-trucks-/","published":"2026-08-24","quote":"75% of Canadians approved of Carney"},{"id":"s6","title":"U.S. reveals import ban on slew of Canadian goods as trade war escalates","publisher":"CNBC","url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/09/us-canada-trade-war-import-ban.html","published":"2026-09-09","quote":"retaliatory tariffs on 27.6 billion Canadian dollars ($20 billion) of U.S. imports"},{"id":"s7","title":"Trump escalates trade war with Canada, moving to ban imports of some motorcycles, dairy and alcohol","publisher":"NBC News","url":"https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/trump-escalates-trade-war-canada-moving-ban-import-autos-dairy-alcohol-rcna596666","published":"2026-09-08","quote":"plan for 50% duties on cars and trucks remains on the table"},{"id":"s8","title":"Timeline of the 2025 to 2026 United States trade war with Canada","publisher":"Wikipedia","url":"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_2025%E2%80%9326_United_States_trade_war_with_Canada","published":"2026-09-24","quote":"Trump threatened to increase tariffs on Canadian goods to 35% starting August 1, 2025."},{"id":"s9","title":"As U.S.-Canada trade talks collapse, Carney says retaliatory tariffs will start Sept. 8","publisher":"CNBC","url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/22/us-canada-trade-talks-collapse-ushering-in-wave-of-new-tariffs.html","published":"2026-08-22","quote":"which had not been used since 1949"}],"hash":"e37bbc127a366905e6720872e2954ce2cf6a3d0e08ac167c70bc0cf43172a17d"}],"faqs":[{"question":"Will Trump put a 50% tariff on Canadian cars?","answer":"He has promised to on January 1, 2027, but TPG puts the chance it is actually in effect by January 15, 2027 at 40%, as of September 26, 2026. Trump carried out three of his four dated tariff threats against Canada since 2025, but auto tariffs are the ones he has most often softened, and a deal cutting the rate to 15% nearly closed in August."},{"question":"How will Canadian car tariffs affect car prices?","answer":"Canadian plants built 861,000 vehicles sold in the U.S. last year, about 5.4% of sales. Tariffs are paid by U.S. importers, usually automakers and dealers, and are largely passed on to buyers. Doubling the rate from 25% to 50% would raise prices on those models and, because parts cross the border several times, on many U.S.-assembled cars too."},{"question":"Why are the US and Canada in a trade war in 2026?","answer":"The U.S. declined to extend USMCA in July 2026 and imposed 50% tariffs on about $20 billion of Canadian goods under Section 338 on August 22, citing discrimination against U.S. cars, alcohol and dairy. Talks on a deal collapsed the night before. Canada retaliated on C$27.6 billion of U.S. goods, and the U.S. answered with import bans from September 29 and the threat of 50% auto tariffs."},{"question":"Are US Canada trade talks back on?","answer":"Not as of September 26, 2026. Prime Minister Mark Carney suspended talks on August 21 and has said Canada will return when Washington gets serious, while U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said no new talks were planned. A deal in August was reportedly close and would have cut the tariff on Canadian cars to 15%, so a revived negotiation after the midterms is the main way the 50% threat could be dropped."}],"resolved":null,"url":"https://www.thepoliticalgroup.com/forecasts/will-the-us-raise-tariffs-on-canadian-cars-to-50-percent-by-january-2027"},{"kind":"field","slug":"who-will-be-senate-majority-leader-in-january-2027","question":"Who will be Senate Majority Leader when the 120th Congress convenes in January 2027?","short":"Senate Majority Leader, January 2027","pillar":"domestic","topics":["us-congress","elections-2026"],"created":"2026-09-26","resolution":{"criteria":"Resolves to the senator serving as Senate Majority Leader, the elected floor leader of the party that organizes the Senate, when the 120th Congress convenes on January 3, 2027. The majority party is the one whose conference controls the chamber, counting independents by the conference they join and the Vice President's tiebreak in a 50-50 Senate. Later changes in leadership do not count.","deadline":"2027-01-31","judgedBy":"Senate party conference leadership elections and the Senate's official leadership roster, as reported by the Associated Press"},"whyItMatters":"The Majority Leader controls what reaches the Senate floor, including judges, cabinet nominees, war powers votes and any deal with a Democratic House, for the final two years of President Trump's term.","impact":[{"audience":"People following the courts","effect":"A Majority Leader Thune keeps confirming the president's judicial nominees. A Democratic leader, whether Schumer or a successor, would decide which nominees get a vote at all."},{"audience":"Military families and foreign policy watchers","effect":"A Democratic leader could schedule votes to limit the Iran war and hold more oversight hearings. A Republican leader would keep that agenda aligned with the White House."},{"audience":"Progressive and centrist Democrats","effect":"If Democrats win but replace Schumer, the choice between a leader like Brian Schatz or Chris Van Hollen signals how far left the caucus will push on taxes, health care and Israel policy."},{"audience":"Taxpayers","effect":"Only a Republican Senate paired with a Republican House can pass another party-line tax bill through reconciliation. A Democratic leader ends that path through 2028."}],"versions":[{"version":1,"published":"2026-09-26T08:10:07Z","cutoff":"2026-09-26","probability":0.4,"range":[0.3,0.5],"call":"Schumer and Thune nearly tied","headline":"As of September 26, 2026, Chuck Schumer is narrowly the most likely Senate Majority Leader in January 2027, at 40 percent, just ahead of John Thune at 39. Who leads depends mostly on which party wins the Senate, which our desk puts at 58 percent Democratic, and on whether Democrats keep Schumer despite growing opposition.","field":[{"name":"Chuck Schumer","party":"Democratic","role":"Senate Minority Leader, Senator from New York","probability":0.4,"experienceYears":45,"record":[{"label":"Leadership record","value":"Senate Democratic leader since 2017; Majority Leader 2021 to 2025","sourceId":"m9"},{"label":"Insider read, August 2026","value":"Senate Democratic insiders say he is likely to remain leader","sourceId":"m4"},{"label":"Opposition from 2026 nominees","value":"Nominees in Michigan, Minnesota and Maine say they will not vote for him","sourceId":"m5"}],"case":"He has led the caucus for nearly a decade, recruited the candidates who are putting Republican seats in play, and a leader who wins back the majority is rarely removed.","risk":"Several new Democratic nominees have pledged to vote against him, and if the new majority is narrow, a handful of defections could force him out."},{"name":"John Thune","party":"Republican","role":"Senate Majority Leader, Senator from South Dakota","probability":0.39,"experienceYears":27,"electionsLost":1,"record":[{"label":"Leadership record","value":"Senate Majority Leader; previously Senate Republican Whip","sourceId":"m10"},{"label":"2024 leadership election","value":"Defeated John Cornyn and Rick Scott","sourceId":"m3"},{"label":"Plans for November leadership vote","value":"\"The assumption is yes\"","sourceId":"m1"}],"case":"If Republicans keep the Senate he is the clear favorite to stay, since no viable rival has emerged and Rick Scott says he will not challenge him again.","risk":"Our desk gives Republicans only a 42 percent chance of keeping the Senate, and a disappointing result could invite a challenge from the party's MAGA wing."},{"name":"Brian Schatz","party":"Democratic","role":"U.S. Senator from Hawaii, Chief Deputy Whip","probability":0.09,"experienceYears":24,"record":[{"label":"Whip race","value":"Has locked up the votes to become Senate Democratic whip","sourceId":"m6"},{"label":"Succession standing","value":"Viewed as Schumer's preferred successor","sourceId":"m13"}],"case":"As whip-in-waiting and Schumer's preferred successor, he is the natural choice if Schumer steps aside after a Democratic win.","risk":"Progressives who want to break with the Schumer era may see him as too close to the current leadership."},{"name":"Chris Van Hollen","party":"Democratic","role":"U.S. Senator from Maryland","probability":0.04,"experienceYears":35,"record":[{"label":"Senate service","value":"Elected to the Senate in November 2016","sourceId":"m14"},{"label":"Succession standing","value":"Name most often floated by progressives","sourceId":"m7"}],"case":"He is the progressive wing's most discussed alternative and has declined to commit to backing Schumer beyond 2026.","risk":"He has not declared any challenge, and challengers to a sitting Senate leader rarely win."},{"name":"Catherine Cortez Masto","party":"Democratic","role":"U.S. Senator from Nevada","probability":0.02,"experienceYears":18,"record":[{"label":"Succession standing","value":"Growing buzz as a more centrist option","sourceId":"m11"}],"case":"A centrist from a swing state with a strong fundraising network could be a compromise pick if the caucus splits between Schatz and a progressive.","risk":"She has no leadership post today and no public campaign for one."},{"name":"John Barrasso","party":"Republican","role":"Senate Majority Whip, Senator from Wyoming","probability":0.02,"experienceYears":23,"record":[{"label":"Leadership role","value":"Senate Majority Whip, the No. 2 Republican","sourceId":"m15"}],"case":"As the second-ranking Republican, he is the most likely replacement if Republicans hold the Senate but Thune steps aside.","risk":"Thune intends to run again and no rival has emerged."},{"name":"Someone else","party":null,"role":"Any senator not listed, including Cory Booker, Chris Murphy, Amy Klobuchar or a Republican challenger to Thune","probability":0.04,"record":[],"case":"Leadership races can turn quickly after a surprise election result, as Trent Lott's sudden exit in 2002 showed.","risk":"Senate caucuses almost always elect a sitting leader or the next person in line."}],"lenses":{"psychology":["Senators choose their leader in a private vote after the election, and their main question is who can protect and expand the majority. Schumer's allies argue that if Democrats win back the Senate he will have earned another term, and he has kept campaigning alongside nominees who say they will not back him. The nominees, for their part, made the pledge to win progressive primaries; once elected, the cost of keeping it depends on whether an alternative candidate exists and how narrow the majority is.","On the Republican side, Thune told Roll Call 'the assumption is yes' about seeking another term, and senators from Rick Scott to Ron Johnson said they see no challenge. Josh Hawley, who backed Cornyn in 2024, said the election outcome could influence whether a challenger emerges. That is a signal to watch but not yet a threat: senators tend to protect a leader who kept their seats and punish one only after losses."],"history":["The reference class is changes in Senate control since 1980. In seven of nine, the outgoing minority leader became majority leader: Howard Baker, Robert Byrd, Bob Dole, Tom Daschle, Harry Reid, Mitch McConnell and Schumer. The two exceptions were voluntary departures, not caucus defeats: Trent Lott stepped down in late 2002 after his remarks praising Strom Thurmond's segregationist campaign, and McConnell chose not to seek the post again in 2024, which is how Thune got it.","The closest analogue for Schumer is Nancy Pelosi in the House in 2019: a leader facing public opposition from newly elected members who won anyway once her party took the majority. The analogy breaks in two places. Senate leaders are chosen by secret ballot in the caucus, which makes defections cheaper than a public House floor vote. And Pelosi was not also weighing whether to face a primary at home; Schumer has not said whether he will seek a sixth term in 2028."],"statistics":["Start with control. Our Senate forecast gives Democrats a 58 percent chance of winning the chamber, close to Nate Silver's 58.6 percent and Kalshi's 62 percent. In the Democratic world, Schumer's base rate as the sitting leader is about 78 percent (seven of nine). We cut that to about 69 percent because four Democratic nominees and at least one sitting senator have publicly opposed him and because Kalshi prices only about a 35 to 40 percent chance that he even runs for his own seat in 2028. Our calculation: 0.58 times 0.69 gives about 0.40 for Schumer.","In the Republican world (42 percent), Thune keeps the job about 93 percent of the time, since he is running and no rival has emerged: by our calculation, 0.42 times 0.93 gives about 0.39. The rest of the Democratic branch (about 18 points) goes mostly to Schatz, then Van Hollen and Cortez Masto; the rest of the Republican branch goes mostly to Whip John Barrasso. Because Schumer and Thune are within a point, the frontrunner can flip with small moves in the Senate forecast."]},"betweenTheLines":[{"type":"costly","signal":"Democratic nominees in Michigan, Minnesota, Maine and Illinois have publicly pledged not to vote for Schumer as leader.","read":"A pledge made in a primary is cheap to make and costly to break once in office. If three or four of them win, Schumer needs nearly every returning Democrat, which is why a narrow Democratic majority is the worst case for him."},{"type":"personnel","signal":"Brian Schatz has locked up the votes to become Senate Democratic whip, the No. 2 post, when Dick Durbin retires.","read":"The caucus has already chosen its next-in-line. That makes a leadership change less chaotic, and it makes Schatz the default successor if Schumer decides to step aside rather than fight."},{"type":"omission","signal":"Schumer has not said whether he will seek a sixth Senate term in 2028.","read":"Leaders who plan to stay usually close off that question early. Leaving it open, while markets price his reelection run below even odds, suggests a leader nearing the end of his tenure, which makes a post-election handoff more plausible."},{"type":"tone","signal":"Rick Scott said Trump has not floated a rival to Thune, and Scott himself said 'been there, done that' about challenging him again.","read":"The most likely source of a Republican challenge is standing down in public, which makes a Thune loss to a rival unlikely unless the midterm result is very bad."}],"baseRate":{"value":0.78,"label":"of changes in Senate control since 1980 in which the outgoing minority leader became majority leader","n":9,"reference":"Our calculation from Senate leadership records: Baker (1981), Byrd (1987), Dole (1995), Daschle (2001), Reid (2007), McConnell (2015) and Schumer (2021) moved up; the exceptions were Trent Lott stepping down before 2003 and McConnell retiring from leadership before 2025.","sourceIds":["m12","m9","m10"]},"analogues":[{"case":"Pelosi survives a rebellion after winning the House","year":"2019","similarity":"A party leader publicly opposed by new members elected in a Democratic wave against Trump.","outcome":"Pelosi was elected Speaker after agreeing to term limits with her critics.","breaks":"Senate leaders are chosen in a secret caucus ballot, where defections cost less than on the House floor."},{"case":"Lott steps aside","year":"2002","similarity":"A leader whose party won the majority but whose position became untenable before the new Congress convened.","outcome":"Lott stepped down and Bill Frist became Majority Leader in January 2003.","breaks":"Lott fell over a specific controversy; Schumer's challenge is a broader generational and ideological one."},{"case":"McConnell passes the torch to Thune","year":"2024","similarity":"A long-serving leader handing off after his party won the majority.","outcome":"Thune beat Cornyn and Rick Scott in the conference vote.","breaks":"McConnell announced his departure months in advance; Schumer has not."}],"scenarios":[{"name":"Democrats win and Schumer is reelected leader easily","probability":0.3,"trigger":"Democrats win 52 or more seats and opponents of Schumer have no organized alternative."},{"name":"Democrats win and Schumer survives a contested caucus vote","probability":0.1,"trigger":"A narrow majority, a challenge from Van Hollen or another progressive, and Schumer holding enough returning senators."},{"name":"Democrats win and a new leader takes over","probability":0.18,"trigger":"Schumer steps aside or loses, and the caucus elects Schatz, Van Hollen, Cortez Masto or another senator."},{"name":"Republicans hold and Thune stays","probability":0.39,"trigger":"Republicans keep 51 seats or a 50-50 Senate with Vance breaking ties, and Thune wins the conference vote."},{"name":"Republicans hold but pick a new leader","probability":0.03,"trigger":"A weak result or White House pressure produces a successful challenge or a Thune exit."}],"signposts":[{"signal":"Our Senate forecast moves toward Republicans by five points","direction":"down","effect":"-3 points for Schumer, +5 for Thune, likely flipping the frontrunner"},{"signal":"A sitting Democratic senator announces a challenge to Schumer","direction":"down","effect":"-10 points for Schumer"},{"signal":"Schumer announces he will seek a sixth term in 2028","direction":"up","effect":"+4 points for Schumer"},{"signal":"Democrats win 53 or more seats","direction":"up","effect":"Schumer rises toward 70 percent as critics lose leverage"}],"market":null,"stats":[{"value":"58.6%","label":"Democratic Senate chance in Nate Silver's model on September 14","sourceId":"m16"},{"value":"4","label":"net seats Democrats must gain to win the Senate","sourceId":"m17"},{"value":"22 vs 13","label":"Senate seats Republicans vs Democrats are defending in 2026","sourceId":"m18"},{"value":"Since 2017","label":"Schumer has led the Senate Democratic caucus","sourceId":"m9"},{"value":"75","label":"Schumer's age; insiders still expect him to remain leader","sourceId":"m4"}],"sources":[{"id":"m1","title":"'The assumption is yes,' Thune says of another leadership run","publisher":"Roll Call","url":"https://rollcall.com/2026/09/24/assumption-yes-thune-says-leadership-run/","published":"2026-09-24","quote":"the South Dakota Republican said Thursday afternoon when asked if he would run again for leader in November"},{"id":"m2","title":"'The assumption is yes,' Thune says of another leadership run","publisher":"Roll Call","url":"https://rollcall.com/2026/09/24/assumption-yes-thune-says-leadership-run/","published":"2026-09-24","quote":"said that Trump has not floated a rival to Thune for after the midterms and that he himself was not planning on challenging him again"},{"id":"m3","title":"'The assumption is yes,' Thune says of another leadership run","publisher":"Roll Call","url":"https://rollcall.com/2026/09/24/assumption-yes-thune-says-leadership-run/","published":"2026-09-24","quote":"when he defeated Texas Sen. John Cornyn and Florida Sen. Rick Scott to succeed Mitch McConnell of Kentucky"},{"id":"m4","title":"Questions about Schumer's future grow as Democratic candidates call for change","publisher":"The Hill via Yahoo News","url":"https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/questions-schumer-future-grow-democratic-100000764.html","published":"2026-08-17","quote":"Even so, Senate Democratic insiders say Schumer, who is 75, is likely to remain as Democratic leader."},{"id":"m5","title":"Questions about Schumer's future grow as Democratic candidates call for change","publisher":"The Hill via Yahoo News","url":"https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/questions-schumer-future-grow-democratic-100000764.html","published":"2026-08-17","quote":"Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan, Peggy Flanagan in Minnesota and Troy Jackson in Maine, who are all running as Democratic Senate nominees"},{"id":"m6","title":"Questions about Schumer's future grow as Democratic candidates call for change","publisher":"The Hill via Yahoo News","url":"https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/questions-schumer-future-grow-democratic-100000764.html","published":"2026-08-17","quote":"who has locked up the votes to become Senate Democratic whip, as a candidate to succeed Schumer one day"},{"id":"m7","title":"Chuck Schumer's Future in Doubt: Full List of Democrats Rallying Against Him","publisher":"Newsweek","url":"https://www.newsweek.com/full-list-democrats-rallying-against-chuck-schumer-senate-12315442","published":"2026-08-12","quote":"Van Hollen is the name most often floated by progressives and Democrats aligned with the party's primary voters"},{"id":"m8","title":"Chuck Schumer's Future in Doubt: Full List of Democrats Rallying Against Him","publisher":"Newsweek","url":"https://www.newsweek.com/full-list-democrats-rallying-against-chuck-schumer-senate-12315442","published":"2026-08-12","quote":"He has not said publicly whether he will seek a sixth term in 2028."},{"id":"m9","title":"Chuck Schumer","publisher":"Wikipedia","url":"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chuck_Schumer","published":"2026-09-26","quote":"he has led the Senate Democratic Caucus since 2017 and served as Senate majority leader from 2021 to 2025"},{"id":"m10","title":"About Leader Thune","publisher":"Office of the Senate Republican Leader","url":"https://www.republicanleader.senate.gov/about","published":"2026-09-26","quote":"He also serves as the Senate Majority Leader, and has previously served as the Senate Republican Whip"},{"id":"m11","title":"Questions about Schumer's future grow as Democratic candidates call for change","publisher":"The Hill via Yahoo News","url":"https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/questions-schumer-future-grow-democratic-100000764.html","published":"2026-08-17","quote":"growing buzz around Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (Nev.), a more centrist Democrat"},{"id":"m12","title":"Trent Lott","publisher":"Wikipedia","url":"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trent_Lott","published":"2026-09-26","quote":"In 2003, he stepped down from the position after controversy due to his praising of Strom Thurmond"},{"id":"m13","title":"Chuck Schumer's Future in Doubt: Full List of Democrats Rallying Against Him","publisher":"Newsweek","url":"https://www.newsweek.com/full-list-democrats-rallying-against-chuck-schumer-senate-12315442","published":"2026-08-12","quote":"while Schatz is viewed as Schumer's preferred successor"},{"id":"m14","title":"About Chris","publisher":"Office of Senator Chris Van Hollen","url":"https://www.vanhollen.senate.gov/about","published":"2026-09-26","quote":"Elected to the United States Senate by the people of Maryland in November 2016"},{"id":"m15","title":"About John Barrasso","publisher":"Office of Senator John Barrasso","url":"https://www.barrasso.senate.gov/about/","published":"2026-09-26","quote":"He serves as the Senate Majority Whip, the number two position in Senate Republican leadership."},{"id":"m16","title":"Democrats' chances of winning Senate shift on Nate Silver forecast","publisher":"Newsweek","url":"https://www.newsweek.com/democrats-chances-winning-senate-shift-nate-silver-forecast-12442493","published":"2026-09-15","quote":"gave the party a 58.6 percent chance of winning the chamber on September 14, up from 50.6 percent on September 6."},{"id":"m17","title":"The Fight for the Senate Is a Toss Up","publisher":"Political Wire","url":"https://politicalwire.com/2026/09/23/the-fight-for-the-senate-is-a-toss-up/","published":"2026-09-23","quote":"is Democrats netting between one and five seats; they must net four to win back the Senate."},{"id":"m18","title":"What history tells us about the 2026 midterm elections","publisher":"Brookings","url":"https://www.brookings.edu/articles/what-history-tells-us-about-the-2026-midterm-elections","published":"2025-08-28","quote":"Republicans are defending 22 seats next year compared to just 13 for Democrats"}],"hash":"840e1dc33eb441bf4a82efd319f99f19fae8ed0daa0d661c396b1c7975af1914"}],"faqs":[{"question":"Who will be Senate Majority Leader in 2027?","answer":"As of September 26, 2026, it is close to a coin flip between Chuck Schumer (40 percent) and John Thune (39 percent) in our forecast. If Democrats win the Senate, which our desk puts at 58 percent, Schumer is favored to become Majority Leader again. If Republicans hold it, Thune is very likely to keep the job."},{"question":"Will Chuck Schumer remain Democratic leader after the 2026 midterms?","answer":"Probably, but it is less certain than usual. Senate Democratic insiders told The Hill in August 2026 that Schumer is likely to remain leader. But Democratic nominees in Michigan, Minnesota, Maine and Illinois have said they will not vote for him, and Sen. Elissa Slotkin has called for new leadership. We give him about a 69 percent chance of staying leader if Democrats win."},{"question":"Who could replace Chuck Schumer as Senate Democratic leader?","answer":"The most often mentioned names are Brian Schatz of Hawaii, who has locked up the votes to become Democratic whip and is seen as Schumer's preferred successor, and Chris Van Hollen of Maryland, the name most floated by progressives. Catherine Cortez Masto of Nevada, Cory Booker and Chris Murphy have also been mentioned."},{"question":"Will John Thune run for Republican leader again?","answer":"Yes. Asked in September 2026 whether he would run again for leader after the midterms, Thune said 'the assumption is yes,' and a GOP aide confirmed he will seek to keep the post. No viable rival has emerged, and Sen. Rick Scott, who challenged him in 2024, says he will not run again."}],"resolved":null,"url":"https://www.thepoliticalgroup.com/forecasts/who-will-be-senate-majority-leader-in-january-2027"},{"kind":"field","slug":"who-will-be-speaker-of-the-house-in-january-2027","question":"Who will be Speaker of the House when the 120th Congress convenes in January 2027?","short":"Speaker of the House, January 2027","pillar":"domestic","topics":["us-congress","elections-2026"],"created":"2026-09-26","resolution":{"criteria":"Resolves to the person elected Speaker of the House of Representatives in the first speaker election of the 120th Congress, which begins on January 3, 2027. If that election takes several ballots or days, the question resolves to whoever wins it. Later changes in the speakership do not count.","deadline":"2027-01-31","judgedBy":"The House Journal and Clerk of the House roll call for the speaker election, as reported by the Associated Press"},"whyItMatters":"The Speaker decides which bills reach the House floor, which investigations proceed and how funding fights with the White House play out for the last two years of President Trump's term.","impact":[{"audience":"Federal workers and people who rely on federal services","effect":"A Speaker Jeffries would negotiate every spending bill against a Republican White House, which raises the odds of standoffs and shutdown threats. A Speaker Johnson would keep funding fights inside one party."},{"audience":"People following investigations of the administration","effect":"A Democratic Speaker hands committee gavels and subpoena power to Democrats, which means oversight hearings on the Iran war, tariffs and agency decisions. A Republican Speaker keeps those gavels with the president's allies."},{"audience":"Taxpayers and health care consumers","effect":"With a Democratic Speaker, another party-line Republican tax or health bill through budget reconciliation becomes impossible before 2029. With a Republican Speaker, it stays an option if Republicans also hold the Senate."},{"audience":"Voters in close House districts","effect":"Many Democratic candidates have been asked whether they will back Jeffries; how they vote on January 3 is one of the first public tests of what they promised during the campaign."}],"versions":[{"version":1,"published":"2026-09-26T08:10:07Z","cutoff":"2026-09-26","probability":0.84,"range":[0.76,0.9],"call":"Jeffries very likely, riding a Democratic House","headline":"As of September 26, 2026, House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries has an 84 percent chance of being elected Speaker when the 120th Congress convenes in January 2027. Democrats need a net gain of just three seats, and a Democratic majority would almost certainly elect its leader; Speaker Mike Johnson's path requires Republicans to hold the House.","field":[{"name":"Hakeem Jeffries","party":"Democratic","role":"House Minority Leader, Representative from New York's 8th District","probability":0.84,"experienceYears":20,"record":[{"label":"Leadership role","value":"House Democratic leader since 2023","sourceId":"s8"},{"label":"Caucus votes for leader","value":"Unanimous in 2022 and 2024","sourceId":"s9"},{"label":"Democratic seats and seats needed for a majority","value":"215 held, net gain of 3 needed","sourceId":"s1"}],"case":"Our House forecast gives Democrats an 88 percent chance of the majority, and a party that wins the House almost always elects the leader who took it there.","risk":"If Democrats win only a narrow majority, a bloc of progressive members who campaigned against his leadership could deny him 218 votes on the floor."},{"name":"Mike Johnson","party":"Republican","role":"Speaker of the House, Representative from Louisiana's 4th District","probability":0.09,"experienceYears":12,"record":[{"label":"First election as Speaker, October 2023","value":"220 to 209","sourceId":"s7"},{"label":"Stated intent","value":"\"I intend to be the speaker going forward\"","sourceId":"s5"},{"label":"Expected plan if Republicans lose","value":"GOP colleagues do not expect him to run for minority leader","sourceId":"s4"}],"case":"If Republicans keep the House, he is the sitting Speaker, has campaigned for vulnerable members across the country and would start as the conference's default choice.","risk":"His path requires Republicans to beat an 88 percent Democratic favorite for the House, and even then a small majority would give his conservative critics leverage over the vote."},{"name":"Katherine Clark","party":"Democratic","role":"House Minority Whip, Representative from Massachusetts's 5th District","probability":0.02,"experienceYears":13,"record":[{"label":"Leadership role","value":"Elected House Democratic whip in fall 2022","sourceId":"s10"}],"case":"As the second-ranking Democrat, she is the most likely consensus choice if Jeffries cannot reach 218 votes.","risk":"She has given no sign of challenging Jeffries, and she rises only if his bid fails on the floor."},{"name":"Steve Scalise","party":"Republican","role":"House Majority Leader, Representative from Louisiana's 1st District","probability":0.01,"experienceYears":19,"record":[{"label":"Leadership role","value":"House Majority Leader in the 118th and 119th Congresses","sourceId":"s11"},{"label":"Leadership standing","value":"Named as a contender for the top Republican post","sourceId":"s6"}],"case":"He is next in line in the Republican conference and was the conference's first nominee for Speaker in October 2023.","risk":"He becomes Speaker only if Republicans hold the House and Johnson steps aside or cannot win the floor vote."},{"name":"Jim Jordan","party":"Republican","role":"Chair of the House Judiciary Committee, Representative from Ohio's 4th District","probability":0.01,"experienceYears":20,"record":[{"label":"October 2023 speaker race","value":"Conference nominee who failed to win the floor","sourceId":"s12"},{"label":"2026 positioning","value":"Reported angling for a leadership post","sourceId":"s13"}],"case":"He is the favorite of many conservative hardliners and has been campaigning for members in seven states this cycle.","risk":"He already lost a floor vote for Speaker in 2023, and a Republican majority is unlikely."},{"name":"Tom Emmer","party":"Republican","role":"House Majority Whip, Representative from Minnesota's 6th District","probability":0.01,"experienceYears":12,"record":[{"label":"October 2023 speaker race","value":"Withdrew after failing to win 217 votes in the conference","sourceId":"s14"},{"label":"Leadership standing","value":"Named as a contender for the top Republican post","sourceId":"s6"}],"case":"As whip he knows the conference's vote count better than anyone and could be a compromise pick in a messy Republican race.","risk":"Hardliners blocked him once before, and a Republican majority is unlikely."},{"name":"Someone else","party":null,"role":"Any member not listed, including another Democrat such as Pete Aguilar or a compromise Republican","probability":0.02,"record":[],"case":"Contested speaker elections in 2023 produced a Speaker, Johnson, whom almost no one predicted a month earlier.","risk":"In nearly every modern House, the majority party has elected its leader without a surprise."}],"lenses":{"psychology":["A new majority wants two things on January 3: to prove it can govern and to avoid the spectacle of a multi-ballot speaker fight like Kevin McCarthy's in 2023. That gives Jeffries leverage over wavering members. Progressive candidates such as Colorado's Melat Kiros have threatened to oppose him, but a public vote against their own party's Speaker is costly once a member is in office, which is why Semafor's reporting found he does not yet have a vote problem on the scale that sank McCarthy.","On the Republican side, Johnson has staked his future on winning. He told NOTUS he intends to be Speaker going forward and has never thought about the minority. Colleagues, including some in leadership, told NOTUS they expect him to step down if Republicans lose. That makes the Republican side of this question almost entirely a question of House control."],"history":["The reference class is every change in House control since 1946. In eight of nine, the minority party's top leader became Speaker: Joseph Martin in 1947 and 1953, Sam Rayburn in 1949 and 1955, Nancy Pelosi in 2007 and 2019, John Boehner in 2011 and Kevin McCarthy in 2023. The one exception was 1995, when minority leader Bob Michel retired and Newt Gingrich took the gavel.","The closest analogue is Pelosi in 2019: a Democratic wave, a leader facing public opposition from new members, and a win on the floor with 220 votes after a deal with holdouts. McCarthy in 2023 is the warning: with a narrow majority, a small bloc forced 15 ballots before he won. The analogy breaks because Jeffries' critics come from the left, and a large Democratic wave would dilute their leverage rather than magnify it."],"statistics":["Start with House control. Our separate forecast gives Democrats an 88 percent chance of winning the House, a bit below Kalshi's 92 percent. Democrats hold 215 seats and need a net gain of three; Emerson's September poll has them up 11 points on the generic ballot and Nate Silver's average has them at D+8.8 among likely voters.","Then ask who wins the gavel in each world. If Democrats win, Jeffries has about a 95 percent chance, based on the eight-of-nine base rate and the lack of any declared rival: by our calculation, 0.88 times 0.95 is about 0.84. If Republicans hold on (12 percent), Johnson is the likely Speaker about three times in four, or about 9 percent overall, with Scalise, Jordan and Emmer splitting most of the rest. Other Democrats, led by Whip Katherine Clark, pick up the small chance that Jeffries falls short on the floor."]},"betweenTheLines":[{"type":"personnel","signal":"Scalise visited 13 states in August for Republican candidates, and Jordan has campaigned in seven states, while Johnson is on a 30-day campaign swing.","read":"Republican leaders banking goodwill with candidates is a normal midterm ritual, but it is also how members build votes for a post-election leadership race. Nobody spends August on the road for colleagues without expecting that ledger to matter in November."},{"type":"tone","signal":"Johnson told NOTUS, 'We're going to win, so I don't have to answer that question,' when asked about running for minority leader.","read":"Refusing to discuss the minority is standard, but his colleagues' willingness to say on background that he will step down suggests the conference has already started planning for life after him."},{"type":"omission","signal":"No Democrat has announced a challenge to Jeffries, even as some candidates refuse to commit their votes.","read":"Opposition without an alternative candidate is usually a bargaining position, not a coup. Holdouts in 2019 used the same tactic to extract term limits from Pelosi and then voted for her."}],"baseRate":{"value":0.89,"label":"of changes in House control since 1946 in which the minority party's leader became Speaker","n":9,"reference":"Our calculation from the list of Speakers and minority leaders in each Congress since 1946. The only exception was 1995, when Minority Leader Bob Michel retired and Newt Gingrich became Speaker. Recent cases include Pelosi in 2019 and McCarthy in 2023.","sourceIds":["s15","s16"]},"analogues":[{"case":"Pelosi returns as Speaker","year":"2019","similarity":"A Democratic midterm wave against Trump, with a party leader facing public opposition from some new members.","outcome":"Pelosi won 220 votes on the floor after agreeing to term limits with holdouts.","breaks":"Pelosi's critics were moderates in swing seats; Jeffries' critics are mostly progressives in safe seats."},{"case":"McCarthy's 15-ballot fight","year":"2023","similarity":"A new majority whose leader faced an organized bloc of holdouts.","outcome":"McCarthy won on the fifteenth ballot after major concessions and was removed nine months later.","breaks":"Republicans had a four-seat cushion; forecasts point to a larger Democratic majority in 2027, which would dilute any bloc."},{"case":"Gingrich replaces a retiring leader","year":"1995","similarity":"A change of House control after a midterm wave.","outcome":"Newt Gingrich became Speaker because Minority Leader Bob Michel had retired.","breaks":"Jeffries is running for reelection and leading his caucus into the election, unlike Michel."}],"scenarios":[{"name":"Democratic wave, Jeffries elected on the first ballot","probability":0.72,"trigger":"Democrats win 225 or more seats and holdouts are too few to matter."},{"name":"Narrow Democratic majority, Jeffries wins after a fight","probability":0.12,"trigger":"Democrats win 218 to 224 seats, a progressive bloc bargains for concessions, and Jeffries wins on a later ballot or after a deal."},{"name":"Democrats win but pick another Speaker","probability":0.04,"trigger":"Holdouts deny Jeffries a majority and the caucus turns to Katherine Clark or another member."},{"name":"Republicans hold, Johnson stays","probability":0.09,"trigger":"Republican-drawn maps hold enough seats and Johnson wins the conference and floor votes."},{"name":"Republicans hold, new Republican Speaker","probability":0.03,"trigger":"A narrow Republican majority and conservative anger at Johnson lead the conference to Scalise, Jordan, Emmer or another member."}],"signposts":[{"signal":"Generic ballot lead narrows below four points in quality October polls","direction":"down","effect":"-8 points for Jeffries"},{"signal":"Five or more Democratic nominees in competitive seats publicly pledge to vote against Jeffries","direction":"down","effect":"-4 points for Jeffries"},{"signal":"Democrats win 225 or more seats on election night","direction":"up","effect":"Jeffries rises to about 97 percent"},{"signal":"Johnson announces he will not seek any leadership post","direction":"down","effect":"Johnson falls to near zero; Scalise and Jordan gain"}],"market":{"source":"Kalshi","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnextspeaker","probability":0.84,"asOf":"2026-09-26","gapRead":"Kalshi's market on the next Speaker after Johnson (through 2030) had Jeffries bid at 81 cents and offered at 87, a midpoint of 84, with Jim Jordan near 10 and Steve Scalise near 3. That market covers a longer window than ours, but it lands on the same number. Kalshi's House control market gives Democrats 92 percent, four points above our House forecast."},"stats":[{"value":"215 seats, net 3 needed","label":"Democrats' current House seats and the gain they need for a majority","sourceId":"s1"},{"value":"53% to 42%","label":"Democratic lead on Emerson's September generic ballot","sourceId":"s17"},{"value":"D+8.8","label":"Democratic lead in Nate Silver's likely voter generic ballot average","sourceId":"s3"},{"value":"220","label":"votes Pelosi won for Speaker in 2019 despite Democratic holdouts","sourceId":"s16"},{"value":"220-209","label":"Johnson's first election as Speaker in October 2023","sourceId":"s7"}],"sources":[{"id":"s1","title":"Cook Political Report projects Democrats will take control of the House as races shift","publisher":"Washington Examiner","url":"https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/campaigns/congressional/4742693/cook-political-report-projects-democrats-control-house-2026-elections/","published":"2026-09-25","quote":"Democrats currently hold 215 House seats and need a net gain of just three seats to secure a majority."},{"id":"s2","title":"Why Hakeem Jeffries may not have a vote problem","publisher":"Semafor","url":"https://www.semafor.com/article/07/07/2026/why-hakeem-jeffries-may-not-have-a-vote-problem","published":"2026-07-07","quote":"the House Democratic leader doesn't have a vote problem on his hands yet on the level that sank Kevin McCarthy's speakership years ago"},{"id":"s3","title":"Generic Congressional Ballot: Latest Polls","publisher":"Silver Bulletin","url":"https://www.natesilver.net/p/generic-ballot-average-2026-nate-silver-bulletin-congress-polls","published":"2026-09-25","quote":"It applies a likely voter adjustment, which in this case benefits Democrats and moves their lead from D +8.1 to D +8.8."},{"id":"s4","title":"Johnson's Political Future May Hinge on Republicans Exceeding Midterm Expectations","publisher":"NOTUS via The Washington Sun","url":"https://www.washingtonsun.com/campaigns/speaker-mike-johnson-midterms-political-future?redirected=notus_org","published":"2026-08-24","quote":"Republicans across the House GOP conference, including some in leadership, don't believe Johnson will run for minority leader and will step down from House leadership."},{"id":"s5","title":"Johnson's Political Future May Hinge on Republicans Exceeding Midterm Expectations","publisher":"NOTUS via The Washington Sun","url":"https://www.washingtonsun.com/campaigns/speaker-mike-johnson-midterms-political-future?redirected=notus_org","published":"2026-08-24","quote":"I intend to be the speaker going forward."},{"id":"s6","title":"Johnson's Political Future May Hinge on Republicans Exceeding Midterm Expectations","publisher":"NOTUS via The Washington Sun","url":"https://www.washingtonsun.com/campaigns/speaker-mike-johnson-midterms-political-future?redirected=notus_org","published":"2026-08-24","quote":"Scalise and Emmer are also viewed as contenders for the top spot should Republicans lose the majority."},{"id":"s7","title":"Louisiana Republican Mike Johnson elected speaker of the House","publisher":"NPR","url":"https://www.npr.org/2023/10/24/1208372102","published":"2023-10-25","quote":"The vote was 220-209 with all Republicans voting for Johnson."},{"id":"s8","title":"Hakeem Jeffries","publisher":"Wikipedia","url":"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hakeem_Jeffries","published":"2026-09-26","quote":"Jeffries has served since 2023 as the leader of the House Democratic Caucus and House minority leader"},{"id":"s9","title":"About the House Democratic Leader","publisher":"Office of the House Democratic Leader","url":"https://democraticleader.gov/about","published":"2026-09-26","quote":"Rep. Jeffries is the Democratic Leader, having been unanimously elected to that position by his colleagues in 2022 and 2024."},{"id":"s10","title":"About Katherine Clark","publisher":"Office of the House Democratic Whip","url":"https://democraticwhip.gov/about","published":"2026-09-26","quote":"In the fall of 2022, Clark was elected by her colleagues to serve as Democratic Whip"},{"id":"s11","title":"About Steve","publisher":"Office of the House Majority Leader","url":"https://www.majorityleader.gov/about/","published":"2026-09-26","quote":"For the 118th and current 119th Congresses, Scalise was elected House Majority Leader by his colleagues"},{"id":"s12","title":"Louisiana Republican Mike Johnson elected speaker of the House","publisher":"NPR","url":"https://www.npr.org/2023/10/24/1208372102","published":"2023-10-25","quote":"Emmer struggled to win the support of conservative hardliners, who favored Rep. Jim Jordan, the conference's previous pick."},{"id":"s13","title":"Johnson's Political Future May Hinge on Republicans Exceeding Midterm Expectations","publisher":"NOTUS via The Washington Sun","url":"https://www.washingtonsun.com/campaigns/speaker-mike-johnson-midterms-political-future?redirected=notus_org","published":"2026-08-24","quote":"NOTUS has previously reported on Jordan's apparent angling for a leadership position."},{"id":"s14","title":"Louisiana Republican Mike Johnson elected speaker of the House","publisher":"NPR","url":"https://www.npr.org/2023/10/24/1208372102","published":"2023-10-25","quote":"Emmer withdrew from the race hours later after failing to win 217 votes within the conference"},{"id":"s15","title":"January 2023 Speaker of the United States House of Representatives election","publisher":"Wikipedia","url":"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/January_2023_Speaker_of_the_United_States_House_of_Representatives_election","published":"2026-09-26","quote":"won a majority of votes cast on the fifteenth ballot"},{"id":"s16","title":"2019 Speaker of the United States House of Representatives election","publisher":"Wikipedia","url":"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Speaker_of_the_United_States_House_of_Representatives_election","published":"2026-09-26","quote":"House Democratic leader Nancy Pelosi received 220 votes, a majority of the chamber, to become its speaker."},{"id":"s17","title":"September 2026 National Poll: Democrats with 11-Point Congressional Midterm Ballot Advantage","publisher":"Emerson College Polling","url":"https://emersoncollegepolling.com/september-2026-national-poll-democrats/","published":"2026-09-24","quote":"finds congressional Democrats with an 11-point lead over congressional Republicans on the generic ballot, 53% to 42%."},{"id":"s18","title":"Why Hakeem Jeffries may not have a vote problem","publisher":"Semafor","url":"https://www.semafor.com/article/07/07/2026/why-hakeem-jeffries-may-not-have-a-vote-problem","published":"2026-07-07","quote":"Pelosi faced internal dissent in the caucus vote but not enough to sink her speakership on the House floor"}],"hash":"d177651bbf06e9eee865a6ff5d80fd80151fd88b39536ccc2f4ef62e1b5741eb"}],"faqs":[{"question":"Who will be Speaker of the House in 2027?","answer":"As of September 26, 2026, House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries is the strong favorite to become Speaker in January 2027, with an 84 percent chance in our forecast. That rests mainly on Democrats' 88 percent chance of winning the House. If Republicans hold the majority, current Speaker Mike Johnson is the most likely Speaker, at 9 percent overall."},{"question":"Will Hakeem Jeffries be Speaker if Democrats win the House?","answer":"Very likely. In eight of nine changes of House control since 1946, the minority party's leader became Speaker. Some progressive Democratic candidates have said they will not back Jeffries, but no Democrat has announced a challenge, and a large majority would make a small group of holdouts unable to block him. We put his chance at about 95 percent if Democrats win."},{"question":"What happens to Mike Johnson if Republicans lose the House?","answer":"Johnson says he has not thought about serving in the minority and intends to remain Speaker. But Republicans across the conference, including some in leadership, told NOTUS in August 2026 that they expect him to step down from leadership if Republicans lose. Steve Scalise, Tom Emmer and Jim Jordan are the names most often mentioned for Republican leader."},{"question":"How many seats do Democrats need to win the House in 2026?","answer":"Democrats hold 215 seats and need a net gain of three to reach a 218-seat majority, according to the Cook Political Report's September 2026 analysis. The new Speaker is elected by the full House when the 120th Congress convenes on January 3, 2027, and needs a majority of members voting for a named candidate."}],"resolved":null,"url":"https://www.thepoliticalgroup.com/forecasts/who-will-be-speaker-of-the-house-in-january-2027"},{"slug":"will-the-supreme-court-strike-down-ar-15-bans-by-july-2027","question":"Will the Supreme Court rule that the Second Amendment protects AR-15 rifles, striking down the Illinois and Connecticut bans, by July 3, 2027?","short":"SCOTUS protects AR-15s by July 2027","pillar":"domestic","topics":["supreme-court"],"created":"2026-09-26","resolution":{"criteria":"Resolves YES if, on or before July 3, 2027, a majority opinion of the Supreme Court in Viramontes v. Cook County (No. 25-238, consolidated with Grant v. Higgins, No. 25-566) holds that the Second Amendment protects possession of AR-15 platform or similar semiautomatic rifles, or holds that the Cook County or Connecticut ban violates the Second Amendment in whole or in part. Resolves NO if the Court upholds the bans, vacates and remands without deciding whether these rifles are protected, dismisses the case, or issues no decision by July 3, 2027.","deadline":"2027-07-03","judgedBy":"The Supreme Court's published opinion in No. 25-238 on supremecourt.gov, as summarized by SCOTUSblog"},"whyItMatters":"The ruling decides whether roughly nine states and several cities can keep banning the most popular rifle in America, and sets the test for every other gun law that comes after it.","impact":[{"audience":"Gun owners in states with bans","effect":"A YES ruling would let residents of Illinois, Connecticut and the other states that ban AR-15s buy and keep them, subject to ordinary licensing rules. A NO ruling leaves current bans and registration requirements in place."},{"audience":"State and local governments","effect":"About nine states restrict these rifles, based on Justice Kavanaugh's count that AR-15s are legal in 41 of 50. A YES ruling would force them to rewrite or repeal their laws and would invite challenges to magazine limits next."},{"audience":"Gun makers and retailers","effect":"Americans already own an estimated 20 to 30 million AR-15s. A YES ruling opens closed markets in large states such as Illinois, New York, New Jersey and California to legal sales."},{"audience":"Police and public safety groups","effect":"Departments and advocates that backed the bans would lose a tool they argue limits mass shooting casualties, and would shift toward background check, red flag and storage laws that the Court has not questioned."},{"audience":"Courts and litigants","effect":"Whatever the outcome, the opinion will tell lower courts how to apply the Bruen history test to categories of weapons, which governs hundreds of pending gun cases."}],"versions":[{"version":1,"published":"2026-09-26T07:36:07Z","cutoff":"2026-09-26","probability":0.74,"range":[0.64,0.82],"call":"Likely, the Court took this case to decide it","headline":"We put the chance at 74% that the Supreme Court rules by July 3, 2027 that the Second Amendment protects AR-15 rifles, striking down the Illinois and Connecticut bans. The biggest reason: four justices are already on record against these bans, and Roberts and Barrett joined the gun-rights majority in the Court's last Second Amendment case in June 2026.","lenses":{"psychology":["The Court chose this fight. Justice Kavanaugh wrote in June 2025 that the Court should and presumably would take up the AR-15 issue in the next term or two, and Justices Thomas, Alito and Gorsuch wanted to hear a Maryland ban right away. Four justices voting to grant a case they have publicly criticized is a strong sign they expect to win it, because a grant that ends in an affirmance would lock the bans in nationwide.","The swing justices are Chief Justice Roberts and Justice Barrett. Both joined Justice Alito's 6-3 majority in Wolford v. Lopez in June 2026, and Barrett wrote separately that courts may not smuggle regulatory limits into the plain text step of the Bruen test. That is the exact step where the Seventh Circuit upheld Cook County's ban, by treating AR-15s as military weapons outside the Second Amendment. Roberts prefers narrow rulings, which is the main path to a NO: a remand that tells lower courts they used the wrong test without saying AR-15s are protected.","The federal government, which usually defends gun laws, filed a brief on September 4, 2026 supporting the challengers. That removes the Solicitor General as a counterweight and gives cautious justices institutional cover to rule broadly."],"history":["The reference class is Second Amendment cases the Court has decided on the merits since District of Columbia v. Heller in 2008: Heller, McDonald (2010), Caetano (2016), Bruen (2022), Rahimi (2024), Hemani (2026) and Wolford (2026). The gun-rights side won six of the seven. The single loss, Rahimi, involved disarming people under domestic violence restraining orders, where the government had a strong history of disarming dangerous individuals.","The closest analogue is Heller itself, which struck down a ban on an entire class of arms, handguns, because they were the quintessential self-defense weapon in common use. Challengers argue AR-15s fit the same common use test. The analogy breaks because Heller said weapons most useful in military service, like M-16 rifles, may be banned, and the states argue AR-15s are close enough to M-16s to fall in that category. How the justices handle that line is the whole case.","Where history warns against overconfidence: the Court turned away AR-15 petitions for more than a decade, including Friedman v. Highland Park in 2015 and Snope v. Brown in 2025, and the Viramontes petition itself sat through 22 conferences before it was granted on June 30, 2026."],"statistics":["Start from the Court's reversal rate. The Court reverses or vacates roughly 70% of the cases it agrees to hear, so a neutral prior for the challengers is about 0.70. The post-Heller Second Amendment record (six gun-rights wins in seven merits cases) supports a higher prior, near 0.80.","Adjust down for the specific risk that the Court vacates and remands with a new test but no holding on AR-15s, which is how a Roberts-led majority could avoid a sweeping ruling. We put that at about 12 points. Adjust down again by about 2 points for a dismissal or a decision slipping past July 3, 2027. Adjust up by about 8 points for the four justices already on record and the United States switching sides. That gives 0.80 minus 0.14 plus 0.08, or 0.74.","The Kalshi market on the same question last traded at 82 cents, with a 74 to 83 cent spread, but it runs until 2030 and counts any ruling that recognizes the right. Our tighter July 2027 window and stricter definition explain most of the gap."]},"betweenTheLines":[{"type":"sequencing","signal":"The Court held the AR-15 petitions through 22 conferences and granted them at the end-of-term clean-up conference, days after deciding Wolford.","read":"The justices waited until they had settled how the Bruen plain text step works. Granting right after a 6-3 gun-rights win, with Barrett writing to tighten that step, suggests the majority wanted its framework in place before applying it to rifles."},{"type":"costly","signal":"The Solicitor General filed a brief supporting the challengers rather than the states.","read":"The United States defends federal gun laws in other cases, so siding against state bans carries a real cost for DOJ. It tells the justices a ruling for the challengers will not destabilize federal firearms law, lowering the stakes for Roberts."},{"type":"omission","signal":"The Court granted the Connecticut petition only on the single question from the Illinois case: whether the Constitution protects possessing AR-15 platform and similar semiautomatic rifles.","read":"The justices wrote themselves a clean, categorical question rather than a fact-bound one about particular features or other parts of the laws. A categorical question is easier to answer with a categorical YES, and it suggests other issues such as magazines are being saved for later."},{"type":"cheap","signal":"States and cities with bans have promised to pass new restrictions quickly if they lose.","read":"Those statements cost nothing now and do not affect the ruling. They matter only for what happens after, when feature-based rewrites would face immediate new suits."}],"baseRate":{"value":0.86,"label":"of post-Heller Second Amendment merits cases (6 of 7) were won by the gun-rights side","n":7,"reference":"Computed by us from the Supreme Court's Second Amendment merits decisions since 2008: Heller (2008), McDonald (2010), Caetano (2016), Bruen (2022), Rahimi (2024), Hemani (2026) and Wolford (2026). Only Rahimi went against the challenger. The 2026 cases are summarized by SCOTUSblog.","sourceIds":["s3"]},"analogues":[{"case":"District of Columbia v. Heller","year":"2008","similarity":"Struck down a ban on a whole class of commonly owned firearms, handguns, 5-4.","outcome":"Ban struck down; individual right recognized.","breaks":"Heller carved out weapons most useful in military service, and the states say AR-15s belong in that carve-out. Handguns had no such argument against them."},{"case":"New York State Rifle and Pistol Association v. Bruen","year":"2022","similarity":"Court took a case where lower courts had broadly upheld a restrictive state law and replaced their test.","outcome":"Law struck down 6-3; history and tradition test adopted.","breaks":"Bruen was about carrying handguns already accepted as protected. Here the threshold question is whether the weapon itself is protected."},{"case":"United States v. Rahimi","year":"2024","similarity":"A post-Bruen case where the Court reviewed a gun restriction the government defended as historically grounded.","outcome":"Law upheld 8-1.","breaks":"Rahimi disarmed specific dangerous people after a court finding, not all law-abiding owners of a popular rifle, so the historical fit was far stronger."},{"case":"Wolford v. Lopez","year":"2026","similarity":"Same Court, same term's framework, Alito writing, Roberts and Barrett joining.","outcome":"Hawaii private property default rule struck down 6-3.","breaks":"Wolford restricted where guns can be carried; a ban on possession of a rifle class has deeper historical arguments about dangerous weapons."}],"scenarios":[{"name":"Broad win: AR-15s are in common use and the bans fall","probability":0.55,"trigger":"Majority adopts the Kavanaugh common use reasoning and strikes down both bans outright."},{"name":"Narrower win: rifles protected, some provisions left for remand","probability":0.19,"trigger":"Court holds AR-15 platform rifles are protected arms but remands questions about other listed features or registration rules."},{"name":"Vacate and remand with no holding on AR-15s","probability":0.12,"trigger":"Roberts or Barrett insists on a narrow opinion correcting the lower courts' method without deciding the rifle question."},{"name":"Bans upheld","probability":0.12,"trigger":"A majority accepts that AR-15s are military-style weapons outside Second Amendment protection."},{"name":"Dismissed or decided after July 3, 2027","probability":0.02,"trigger":"Procedural problem, mootness from a law change, or reargument."}],"signposts":[{"signal":"At the December 2, 2026 argument, Roberts or Barrett asks how to distinguish AR-15s from M-16s in a way that favors the states","direction":"down","effect":"-10 to -15 points"},{"signal":"Barrett presses the states on why a ban can pass the plain text step at all","direction":"up","effect":"+5 to +8 points"},{"signal":"Illinois or Connecticut amends its law before the decision, raising mootness questions","direction":"down","effect":"-5 points"},{"signal":"No decision by the last scheduled opinion day in late June 2027 and the case is set for reargument","direction":"down","effect":"to near 5%"}],"market":{"source":"Kalshi","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxscotusar15","probability":0.82,"asOf":"2026-09-26","gapRead":"The market's last trade was 82 cents with bids at 74 and asks at 83, on thin volume. It resolves YES on any ruling recognizing the right before 2030, which includes narrow wins we also count and a longer clock. We are slightly lower because we give real weight to a Roberts-style remand that avoids deciding the rifle question."},"stats":[{"value":"20 to 30 million","label":"AR-15s owned by Americans, per Justice Kavanaugh's 2025 statement","sourceId":"s1"},{"value":"41 of 50","label":"states where AR-15s are legal, making ban states an outlier","sourceId":"s2"},{"value":"6-3","label":"vote in Wolford v. Lopez, the Court's June 2026 gun ruling, with Roberts and Barrett in the majority","sourceId":"s3"},{"value":"Dec 2, 2026","label":"oral argument date for the consolidated AR-15 cases","sourceId":"s4"},{"value":"September 4, 2026","label":"date the U.S. Solicitor General filed in support of the challengers","sourceId":"s5"}],"sources":[{"id":"s1","title":"Snope v. Brown, statement of Justice Kavanaugh respecting denial of certiorari","publisher":"Legal Information Institute, Cornell Law School","url":"https://www.law.cornell.edu/supremecourt/text/24-203","published":"2025-06-02","quote":"Americans today possess an estimated 20 to 30 million"},{"id":"s2","title":"Snope v. Brown, statement of Justice Kavanaugh respecting denial of certiorari","publisher":"Legal Information Institute, Cornell Law School","url":"https://www.law.cornell.edu/supremecourt/text/24-203","published":"2025-06-02","quote":"legal in 41 of the 50 States, meaning that the States such as Maryland that prohibit"},{"id":"s3","title":"The court's big gun cases and what's next","publisher":"SCOTUSblog","url":"https://www.scotusblog.com/2026/07/the-courts-big-gun-cases-and-whats-next/","published":"2026-07-31","quote":"In a 6-3 decision, the court struck down a Hawaii law that made it illegal for anyone to bring their firearm"},{"id":"s4","title":"Viramontes v. Cook County (25-238) case page","publisher":"SCOTUSblog","url":"https://www.scotusblog.com/cases/viramontes-v-cook-county/","published":"2026-09-04","quote":"Argument Dec 2, 2026"},{"id":"s5","title":"Viramontes v. Cook County","publisher":"Wikipedia","url":"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Viramontes_v._Cook_County","published":"2026-09-20","quote":"filed a brief for the United States as amicus curiae in support of petitioners on September 4, 2026"},{"id":"s6","title":"Court grants several new cases, including on whether the Second Amendment protects possession of semiautomatic rifles","publisher":"SCOTUSblog","url":"https://www.scotusblog.com/2026/06/court-grants-several-new-cases-including-on-whether-the-second-amendment-protects-possession-of-/","published":"2026-06-30","quote":"In a brief order on Tuesday, the justices agreed to take up both an Illinois man's challenge to Cook County's ban on semiautomatic rifles"}],"hash":"9825fdabd6bacb6b303a0a5403863bdb72870c7ce11f736020b56d4df20c0792"}],"faqs":[{"question":"When will the Supreme Court rule on AR-15 bans?","answer":"The Supreme Court hears the consolidated AR-15 cases, Viramontes v. Cook County and Grant v. Higgins, on December 2, 2026. A decision is expected by the end of the term in late June or early July 2027. Big, divisive cases argued in December usually come out in the final weeks of June."},{"question":"Will the Supreme Court strike down assault weapons bans?","answer":"The TPG Forecast Desk puts the chance at 74% that the Court rules by July 3, 2027 that AR-15 rifles are protected and the Illinois and Connecticut bans cannot stand. Four justices have already signaled skepticism of these bans, and Roberts and Barrett joined a 6-3 gun-rights majority in June 2026. The main risk is a narrow remand."},{"question":"How many states ban AR-15s?","answer":"Justice Kavanaugh wrote in 2025 that AR-15s are legal in 41 of the 50 states, which leaves about nine states, plus some cities and counties such as Cook County, Illinois, with bans. A Supreme Court ruling for the challengers in Viramontes v. Cook County would put all of those laws in doubt."},{"question":"What is Viramontes v. Cook County about?","answer":"Viramontes v. Cook County asks whether the Second and Fourteenth Amendments guarantee a right to possess AR-15 platform and similar semiautomatic rifles. Cook County, Illinois bans them, and the Seventh Circuit upheld the ban. The Court combined it with Grant v. Higgins, a challenge to Connecticut's law, for one hour of argument."}],"resolved":null,"url":"https://www.thepoliticalgroup.com/forecasts/will-the-supreme-court-strike-down-ar-15-bans-by-july-2027"},{"slug":"will-the-supreme-court-uphold-arizona-proof-of-citizenship-voter-law","question":"Will the Supreme Court rule by July 3, 2027 that Arizona can require documentary proof of citizenship from voters who register with the state form?","short":"SCOTUS backs Arizona citizenship proof","pillar":"domestic","topics":["supreme-court"],"created":"2026-09-26","resolution":{"criteria":"Resolves YES if, on or before July 3, 2027, a majority of the Supreme Court in Republican National Committee v. Mi Familia Vota (No. 25-1017) holds that neither the National Voter Registration Act nor the 2018 federal consent decree bars Arizona from requiring voter-registration applicants who use the state registration form to produce satisfactory evidence of U.S. citizenship. The outcome on the second question (removing noncitizens within 90 days of a federal election) does not affect resolution. Resolves NO if the Court holds that federal law or the consent decree bars the requirement, dismisses the case, vacates on standing or other procedural grounds without reaching the question, or issues no decision by July 3, 2027.","deadline":"2027-07-03","judgedBy":"The Supreme Court's published opinion in No. 25-1017 on supremecourt.gov, as summarized by SCOTUSblog"},"whyItMatters":"The ruling decides whether states can make new voters show a birth certificate, passport or similar document when they register, a rule several Republican-led states want to copy before the 2028 presidential election.","impact":[{"audience":"Arizona voters","effect":"More than 19,000 Arizonans were registered as federal-only voters as of July 2023 because they had not shown documents. A YES ruling would push new state-form registrants to produce proof or be limited to federal races."},{"audience":"Citizens without documents on hand","effect":"The Brennan Center estimates more than 9% of voting-age citizens do not have proof of citizenship readily available. Students, older voters, married women whose names changed and rural residents would need to track down records before registering."},{"audience":"Other states","effect":"A YES ruling would give Republican-led legislatures a tested template for documentary proof laws on their own state forms, while Democratic-led states would be unaffected unless they choose to act."},{"audience":"County election offices","effect":"Offices would need systems to collect and verify documents and to run two classes of registrants, adding cost and staff time ahead of the 2028 cycle."},{"audience":"Voter registration groups","effect":"Drives that register people on the spot would become harder, since applicants may not carry a birth certificate or passport, pushing groups toward the federal form, which Arizona must still accept."}],"versions":[{"version":1,"published":"2026-09-26T07:36:07Z","cutoff":"2026-09-26","probability":0.72,"range":[0.6,0.82],"call":"Likely, the justices already let it run","headline":"We put the chance at 72% that the Supreme Court rules by July 3, 2027 that Arizona may require documentary proof of citizenship from voters using its state registration form. The biggest reason: five justices already let Arizona enforce that exact requirement in an August 2024 emergency order, and the Court took the case to review a ruling against it.","lenses":{"psychology":["The key votes are Chief Justice Roberts and Justice Kavanaugh. In August 2024 they joined Justices Thomas, Alito and Gorsuch to let Arizona enforce the state-form proof requirement while the case continued, even though they declined to let the rest of the law take effect before the election. Voting to let a rule operate and then striking it down on the merits is possible, but justices rarely reverse their own interim judgment without a new argument that changes the picture.","Justice Barrett is the uncertain vote. In 2024 she sided with the three liberal justices to deny the application entirely. That vote may have been driven by the timing concern of changing election rules months before an election, which does not apply to a merits ruling in 2027. Her record on federal preemption favors reading federal statutes by their text, and the National Voter Registration Act's accept and use command speaks to the federal form, not a state's own form.","Chief Justice Roberts has institutional reasons to decide this well before the 2028 cycle and to write narrowly. The most natural narrow ruling for him is that Congress regulated the federal form and left the state form alone, which is a YES on our question even if the Court sides with the challengers on the 90-day removal issue."],"history":["The closest analogue is Arizona v. Inter Tribal Council in 2013, where the Court ruled 7-2 that the NVRA preempts Arizona's proof requirement for people using the federal form. Justice Scalia wrote that opinion and Roberts joined it. It cuts both ways: it shows the Court reads the NVRA seriously, but its reasoning rested on the federal form specifically, which leaves the state form open. That is why Arizona built its two-track system in the first place.","The second analogue is Beals v. Virginia Coalition for Immigrant Rights in October 2024, where the Court allowed Virginia to keep removing roughly 1,600 alleged noncitizens from its rolls inside the NVRA's 90-day quiet period, over the dissent of the three liberal justices. Together with the August 2024 Arizona order, the Court has granted emergency relief to the state on both questions now before it, as the RNC's petition emphasizes.","Where the analogies break: emergency orders are not merits rulings, and the consent decree issue is new. A 2018 agreement by a prior Arizona Secretary of State to accept state forms without documents is a separate barrier, and the Court could find the NVRA allows the requirement but the decree still binds. Most of the conservative majority has been skeptical of consent decrees that bind future officials, which limits that risk."],"statistics":["Start with the Court's overall reversal rate, about 70% for the cases it chooses to hear, and higher for the Ninth Circuit. That gives a prior of about 0.72 for the RNC on at least one question.","Adjust up for the August 2024 interim order, where five justices sided with Arizona on exactly this state-form question: plus 8 points. Adjust down for the consent decree as an independent ground to rule against Arizona: minus 4 points. Adjust down for a dismissal, a standing problem, or a split decision where the Court rules against Arizona on proof but for it on removals: minus 4 points. 0.72 plus 0.08 minus 0.08 equals 0.72.","The Kalshi market requires Arizona to win on both questions and last traded at 69 cents on very thin volume. Our question needs only the proof-of-citizenship win, so our number should sit at or slightly above that market, and it does."]},"betweenTheLines":[{"type":"costly","signal":"In August 2024, Roberts and Kavanaugh split the difference: they let Arizona enforce proof of citizenship for the state form but not the rest of the law.","read":"That was a deliberate, reasoned line, not a coin flip. It maps exactly onto question one here, and it suggests the Court's center already sees the state form as the state's own business."},{"type":"sequencing","signal":"The Court granted this case on June 29, 2026 and set argument for December 8, 2026, after the midterms.","read":"The timing lets the justices avoid changing rules close to an election, which was Barrett's likely concern in 2024, while still deciding the issue well before 2028. Removing the election-timing objection helps the state."},{"type":"personnel","signal":"The petitioners are the Republican National Committee and Republican legislative leaders rather than Arizona's Democratic executive officials, with the Justice Department filing in support.","read":"Standing is the hidden risk. If the Court doubts that a party committee or legislators can defend a state law in place of the state's own executive officers, it could dismiss without reaching the merits. We carry that as a few points of NO."},{"type":"omission","signal":"The Court took the RNC's two questions as written, including the consent decree, rather than limiting the grant to the NVRA.","read":"Including the decree question means the justices intend to decide whether a past official's settlement can bind a state indefinitely, a question on which the conservative majority has signaled skepticism. That reduces the chance the decree becomes the reason for a NO."}],"baseRate":{"value":0.7,"label":"approximate share of cases the Supreme Court reverses or vacates after granting review","n":0,"reference":"Long-run average of the Court's reversal rate across recent terms, used as the neutral prior for the petitioning party. Adjusted in the statistics lens using the 2024 emergency order in this same case.","sourceIds":["s1"]},"analogues":[{"case":"Arizona v. Inter Tribal Council of Arizona","year":"2013","similarity":"Same Arizona proof-of-citizenship requirement, same federal statute.","outcome":"7-2 against Arizona for federal-form applicants.","breaks":"The holding rested on the federal form's accept and use mandate. This case is about the state's own form."},{"case":"RNC v. Mi Familia Vota emergency order","year":"2024","similarity":"Same case, same state-form question.","outcome":"5-4 to let Arizona enforce state-form proof of citizenship for the 2024 cycle.","breaks":"An interim order with no reasoning, shaped by the election calendar. Merits review is fuller and Barrett's vote is not fixed."},{"case":"Beals v. Virginia Coalition for Immigrant Rights","year":"2024","similarity":"Emergency ruling on the NVRA's 90-day quiet period for removing alleged noncitizens.","outcome":"Virginia allowed to continue removals of roughly 1,600 registrants.","breaks":"Concerns the second question, which does not decide this forecast, and was also an unexplained interim order."}],"scenarios":[{"name":"Arizona wins both questions","probability":0.5,"trigger":"Majority reads the NVRA as regulating only the federal form and the quiet period as not covering noncitizen removals, and rejects the consent decree as a bar."},{"name":"Arizona wins on proof, loses on 90-day removals","probability":0.22,"trigger":"Roberts or Barrett joins a narrow holding on the state form but reads the quiet period provision to cover systematic removals."},{"name":"Arizona loses on proof of citizenship","probability":0.22,"trigger":"Majority holds the NVRA or the 2018 consent decree bars the state-form requirement."},{"name":"Dismissed, vacated on standing, or not decided by July 3, 2027","probability":0.06,"trigger":"Court doubts the RNC or legislators can defend the law, or the case is reargued."}],"signposts":[{"signal":"At the December 8 argument, Barrett questions whether the NVRA says anything about state forms","direction":"up","effect":"+6 points"},{"signal":"Justices spend significant time on whether the RNC and legislative leaders have standing","direction":"down","effect":"-8 points"},{"signal":"Roberts presses the RNC on why the 2018 consent decree does not bind the state","direction":"down","effect":"-6 points"},{"signal":"Congress passes a federal proof-of-citizenship law such as the SAVE Act before the decision","direction":"down","effect":"Adds mootness risk, -3 points"}],"market":{"source":"Kalshi","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxscotuscase","probability":0.69,"asOf":"2026-09-26","gapRead":"The Kalshi contract requires Arizona to win on both proof of citizenship and the 90-day removal question before August 2028, and it has traded fewer than 100 contracts. Our question needs only the first win, so we sit slightly higher at 72%. The thin volume means the market price carries little information."},"stats":[{"value":"5-4","label":"vote in August 2024 letting Arizona enforce state-form proof of citizenship","sourceId":"s1"},{"value":"7-2","label":"2013 ruling that barred the requirement for the federal form only","sourceId":"s2"},{"value":"19,000","label":"Arizonans registered as federal-only voters as of July 2023","sourceId":"s3"},{"value":"9%","label":"of voting-age citizens lack ready proof of citizenship, per a Brennan Center study","sourceId":"s4"},{"value":"1,600","label":"alleged noncitizens Virginia was allowed to remove inside the 90-day window in 2024","sourceId":"s5"},{"value":"Dec 8, 2026","label":"oral argument date","sourceId":"s6"}],"sources":[{"id":"s1","title":"Justices allow Arizona to enforce proof-of-citizenship law for 2024 voter registration","publisher":"SCOTUSblog","url":"https://www.scotusblog.com/2024/08/justices-allow-arizona-to-enforce-proof-of-citizenship-law-for-2024-voter-registration/","published":"2024-08-22","quote":"The vote was 5-4"},{"id":"s2","title":"Arizona v. Inter Tribal Council of Arizona","publisher":"American Civil Liberties Union","url":"https://www.aclu.org/cases/arizona-v-inter-tribal-council-arizona","published":"2013-06-17","quote":"On June 17, 2013, in a 7-2 ruling, the Supreme Court invalidated Arizona's burdensome voter registration requirement"},{"id":"s3","title":"Supreme Court takes up GOP bid to revive Arizona proof of citizenship law that critics call voter suppression","publisher":"Cronkite News","url":"https://cronkitenews.azpbs.org/2026/06/29/arizona-scotus-voters-citizenship/","published":"2026-06-29","quote":"More than 19,000 Arizonans were registered as federal-only voters as of July 2023, according to court records"},{"id":"s4","title":"Supreme Court takes up GOP bid to revive Arizona proof of citizenship law that critics call voter suppression","publisher":"Cronkite News","url":"https://cronkitenews.azpbs.org/2026/06/29/arizona-scotus-voters-citizenship/","published":"2026-06-29","quote":"found that more than 9% of U.S. citizens of voting age do not have proof of citizenship readily available"},{"id":"s5","title":"Supreme Court clears way for Virginia to remove 1,600 alleged noncitizens from voter rolls","publisher":"CBS News","url":"https://www.cbsnews.com/news/supreme-court-virginia-voter-rolls/","published":"2024-10-30","quote":"allowed Virginia to move forward with its removal of roughly 1,600 alleged noncitizens from its voter rolls"},{"id":"s6","title":"Republican National Committee v. Mi Familia Vota (25-1017) case page","publisher":"SCOTUSblog","url":"https://www.scotusblog.com/cases/republican-national-committee-v-mi-familia-vota-2/","published":"2026-09-04","quote":"Argument Dec 8, 2026"}],"hash":"1a9dbfb0da00de1341d8429e88723aa71b840fa8196b91b0e82c03d7d3c16f2f"}],"faqs":[{"question":"Will the Supreme Court allow proof of citizenship to register to vote?","answer":"The TPG Forecast Desk puts the chance at 72% that the Supreme Court rules by July 3, 2027 that Arizona can require documentary proof of citizenship from people who register using the state form. Five justices already let Arizona enforce that rule in August 2024. The federal form, which Arizona must accept, is not affected."},{"question":"What is RNC v. Mi Familia Vota?","answer":"Republican National Committee v. Mi Familia Vota is a Supreme Court case on two Arizona laws from 2022. It asks whether federal law or a 2018 consent decree stops Arizona from requiring proof of citizenship on its state voter form, and whether Arizona can remove suspected noncitizens within 90 days of a federal election. Argument is December 8, 2026."},{"question":"What is a federal-only voter in Arizona?","answer":"A federal-only voter in Arizona is someone who registered without showing documentary proof of citizenship. Because the Supreme Court ruled in 2013 that Arizona must accept the federal form, these voters can vote in federal races but not state and local ones. More than 19,000 Arizonans were in that category as of July 2023."},{"question":"Does the Mi Familia Vota case affect the 2026 midterms?","answer":"No. The Supreme Court scheduled argument for December 8, 2026, after the November 3 midterm election, and a decision is expected by the end of June 2027. The ruling will shape registration rules for the 2028 presidential election in Arizona and in any state that copies its law."}],"resolved":null,"url":"https://www.thepoliticalgroup.com/forecasts/will-the-supreme-court-uphold-arizona-proof-of-citizenship-voter-law"},{"kind":"field","slug":"who-will-win-the-2028-democratic-presidential-nomination","question":"Who will win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?","short":"2028 Democratic nominee","pillar":"domestic","topics":["white-house"],"created":"2026-09-26","resolution":{"criteria":"Resolves to the person formally nominated for president at the 2028 Democratic National Convention who accepts that nomination. If the nominee withdraws after the convention and the Democratic National Committee names a replacement, the question still resolves to the person nominated at the convention.","deadline":"2028-09-30","judgedBy":"The Democratic National Convention roll call and acceptance, as reported by the Associated Press and the Democratic National Committee"},"whyItMatters":"The Democratic nominee sets the party's offer on prices, health care, immigration and the Iran war for the first open presidential race since 2016, and decides which wing of the party leads it into 2029.","impact":[{"audience":"Voters in South Carolina, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Michigan and Virginia","effect":"The DNC's new calendar puts these six states first, starting with South Carolina on January 22, 2028. Their voters will see the most candidate visits, ads and organizing, and their results will winnow a field that could reach a dozen candidates."},{"audience":"Progressive voters","effect":"An Ocasio-Cortez nomination would put a Democratic Socialist agenda, including higher taxes on the wealthy and expanded public programs, at the top of the ticket. A Newsom, Harris, Shapiro or Beshear nomination would signal a more centrist platform."},{"audience":"Working families watching costs","effect":"Every leading contender is campaigning on affordability, but their tools differ: governors point to state records on housing and wages, while senators and House members point to federal bills. The nominee's choice frames the 2029 agenda if Democrats win."},{"audience":"Georgia and Pennsylvania voters","effect":"Jon Ossoff and Josh Shapiro are both on the November 2026 ballot at home. Their margins will be read as auditions, and a strong showing raises pressure on each to run in 2028."}],"versions":[{"version":1,"published":"2026-09-26T08:10:07Z","cutoff":"2026-09-26","probability":0.17,"range":[0.1,0.26],"call":"Wide open, Newsom narrowly first","headline":"As of September 26, 2026, California Gov. Gavin Newsom is the narrow favorite for the 2028 Democratic nomination at 17 percent, but the field is wide open: candidates outside our top seven total 27 percent. Harris leads polls, yet Newsom says he will not run if she does, making her decision the biggest swing factor.","field":[{"name":"Gavin Newsom","party":"Democratic","role":"Governor of California","probability":0.17,"experienceYears":22,"record":[{"label":"Statewide record","value":"Elected California's 40th governor in 2018","sourceId":"d11"},{"label":"National primary polling average, late September 2026","value":"14.8%, second place","sourceId":"d3"},{"label":"Emerson national primary poll, May 2026","value":"16%, second place","sourceId":"d1"},{"label":"Kalshi price, late August 2026","value":"13%, third place","sourceId":"d4"}],"case":"He has taken the most concrete steps toward a campaign of any major Democrat, including an appearance in first-in-the-nation South Carolina, and runs second in nearly every national poll behind a candidate who may not run.","risk":"He has tied his own decision to Harris's, and California's record on cost of living gives rivals an easy line of attack in a primary about affordability."},{"name":"Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez","party":"Democratic","role":"U.S. Representative, New York's 14th District","probability":0.14,"experienceYears":7,"electionsLost":0,"record":[{"label":"House service","value":"Representative since 2019","sourceId":"d12"},{"label":"Kalshi price, late August 2026","value":"17%, second place","sourceId":"d4"},{"label":"Emerson national primary poll, May 2026","value":"11%","sourceId":"d2"}],"case":"She has the largest small-donor and volunteer base in the party, a progressive lane that is winning Senate primaries in 2026, and no incumbent-style record to defend.","risk":"She says she will choose between a Senate race and a presidential run after the midterms, and many primary voters doubt a House member from the left can win a general election."},{"name":"Kamala Harris","party":"Democratic","role":"Former Vice President of the United States","probability":0.12,"experienceYears":21,"electionsLost":1,"record":[{"label":"National primary polling average, late September 2026","value":"28.2%, first place","sourceId":"d3"},{"label":"2024 presidential election","value":"Lost, 226 electoral votes","sourceId":"d14"},{"label":"Emerson national primary poll, May 2026","value":"10%","sourceId":"d2"}],"case":"She leads most national polls on name recognition and loyalty among Black Democrats, who will cast many of the first votes in South Carolina.","risk":"She has not decided whether to run, and parties rarely renominate a candidate who lost the previous general election; prediction markets price her far below her poll standing."},{"name":"Jon Ossoff","party":"Democratic","role":"U.S. Senator from Georgia","probability":0.1,"experienceYears":5,"electionsLost":1,"record":[{"label":"Senate service","value":"Senator from Georgia since 2021","sourceId":"d13"},{"label":"Kalshi price, late August 2026","value":"18%, first place","sourceId":"d4"},{"label":"Stated 2028 plans","value":"\"I am not running for president in 2028\"","sourceId":"d5"}],"case":"Traders have made him the market favorite on the idea that a big reelection win in a state Trump carried would make him the party's most electable option.","risk":"He has flatly said he is not running in 2028 and first has to win his own Senate race in November."},{"name":"Pete Buttigieg","party":"Democratic","role":"Former U.S. Secretary of Transportation","probability":0.08,"experienceYears":12,"record":[{"label":"Emerson national primary poll, May 2026","value":"18%, first place","sourceId":"d1"},{"label":"Emerson general election tests, August 2026","value":"Only Democrat to lead both Vance and Rubio by five points","sourceId":"d10"},{"label":"2020 primary","value":"Narrowly won the Iowa caucuses","sourceId":"d15"}],"case":"He leads some national and New Hampshire polls and posts the strongest general election numbers in Emerson's testing, a pitch that matters to electability-minded primary voters.","risk":"He drew little support from Black voters in 2020, and the new calendar opens in South Carolina rather than Iowa, where he did best."},{"name":"Josh Shapiro","party":"Democratic","role":"Governor of Pennsylvania","probability":0.07,"experienceYears":21,"record":[{"label":"2022 Pennsylvania governor's race","value":"Defeated Doug Mastriano by a landslide","sourceId":"d16"},{"label":"Emerson national primary poll, May 2026","value":"10%","sourceId":"d2"}],"case":"A swing-state governor with a landslide win over a Trump-aligned opponent has the electability case many Democratic donors want.","risk":"He must first win reelection in November, and his national polling has stayed in single digits in most surveys."},{"name":"Andy Beshear","party":"Democratic","role":"Governor of Kentucky","probability":0.05,"experienceYears":10,"record":[{"label":"Office","value":"Governor of Kentucky since December 10, 2019","sourceId":"d17"},{"label":"Emerson national primary poll, May 2026","value":"9%","sourceId":"d2"}],"case":"He has won statewide races for attorney general and governor in a state Trump carries easily, and leaves office in December 2027, freeing him to campaign full time.","risk":"He starts with low name recognition outside Kentucky and competes for the same electability lane as Shapiro and Buttigieg."},{"name":"Someone else","party":null,"role":"Any candidate not listed, including Mark Kelly, J.B. Pritzker, Wes Moore, Gretchen Whitmer, Cory Booker, Chris Murphy, Ro Khanna, Rahm Emanuel or James Talarico","probability":0.27,"record":[],"case":"No Democrat polls above 30 percent in the averages, and early Democratic poll leaders won only half of the open contests Pew studied from 1960 to 2004.","risk":"Candidates outside the top tier start far behind on money and name recognition in a race likely to be decided by the six early states."}],"lenses":{"psychology":["Every top contender is waiting on someone else. Harris tends to repeat that she is 'thinking about it' and is campaigning for midterm candidates in Michigan, Nevada and Georgia. Newsom has told CNN he would not run if Harris does, which makes his plans hostage to hers. Ocasio-Cortez says she will choose between a Senate seat and the White House after the midterms. Ossoff says he is not running at all. In a field like this, the first costly move after November, such as a committee, early-state staff or a book tour, will reveal more than any poll.","Democratic primary voters have one overriding need after two losses to Trump: a nominee they believe can win. That is why general election matchups, like Emerson's August tests showing Buttigieg, Ossoff and Newsom running best, matter more than they usually would, and why a former nominee who lost faces a steeper climb than her poll numbers suggest."],"history":["Pew's study of early primary polls found that Democratic poll leaders won only four of eight open contests from 1960 to 2004, far below the Republican rate. Recent history fits: Hillary Clinton led early in 2008 and lost to Barack Obama, while Joe Biden led early in 2020 and won. The reference class says the current poll leader, Harris, has roughly a coin-flip chance if she runs as the clear frontrunner; it does not account for the rarity of a losing nominee being chosen again.","The closest analogue is 2008: a party out of power, a well-known former candidate leading on name recognition, and younger senators with small national profiles. Clinton led national polls through 2007 and lost to a first-term senator who won Iowa. Where it breaks: the 2028 calendar starts in South Carolina, where Black voters are the majority of the Democratic electorate, which favors candidates with deep ties there over those who rely on Iowa-style organizing."],"statistics":["In our calculation, each number is the chance a candidate runs times the chance they win if they do. Harris: about 45 percent to run, given her public hesitancy and CNN's reporting that her former aides have been given no hint of her plans, times about 27 percent to win if she runs (the 50 percent poll-leader base rate, cut for being a losing former nominee and for a market that prices her at 7 cents). That gives about 12 percent. Newsom runs only if Harris does not, so about 52 percent to run, times about 33 percent to win, gives about 17 percent.","Ocasio-Cortez: about 45 percent to choose the presidential race over the Senate, times about 30 percent to win, gives about 14 percent. Ossoff: about 30 percent to reverse his pledge, times about 35 percent, gives about 10 percent. Buttigieg, Shapiro and Beshear are likelier to run but start lower, at 8, 7 and 5 percent. That leaves 27 percent for everyone else, more than any single named candidate, which is why we call the field wide open. Kalshi has Ossoff 17, Ocasio-Cortez 16, Newsom 13, Harris 7 and Buttigieg 5, so our field is similar in shape but lower on Ossoff and higher on Harris."]},"betweenTheLines":[{"type":"costly","signal":"Newsom told CNN's Jake Tapper he would not run if Harris does.","read":"It is a costly public promise because it lets Harris set his timeline, possibly into spring 2027. It avoids a fight with her base, but it also tells donors his path runs through her decision."},{"type":"omission","signal":"CNN reported that Harris's former campaign aides have not been given any hint about her plans, and several major Democrats looking at running have not heard from her.","read":"Candidates who plan to run usually lock down staff and donors early. The absence of that outreach is the strongest public sign that a third Harris campaign is less likely than her polling lead implies."},{"type":"sequencing","signal":"Ocasio-Cortez said she will decide between a Senate run and a White House run after the 2026 midterms.","read":"Tying the decision to November lets her test whether progressive Senate nominees such as Abdul El-Sayed and Peggy Flanagan win. Strong progressive results would push her toward the presidential race."},{"type":"cheap","signal":"Ossoff told CNN he is not running for president in 2028 and has no interest in running.","read":"Denials made while facing reelection are common and cheap to reverse later. Markets have ignored his, which is why we discount it only partly."}],"baseRate":{"value":0.5,"label":"of open Democratic contests from 1960 to 2004 won by the early poll leader","n":8,"reference":"Pew Research Center's review of early primary polling: early Democratic poll leaders won four of eight open contests from 1960 to 2004, compared with six of seven for Republicans.","sourceIds":["d18"]},"analogues":[{"case":"Obama beats early frontrunner Clinton","year":"2008","similarity":"A party out of power, a famous former candidate leading national polls, and younger senators with thin national profiles.","outcome":"Barack Obama, a first-term senator, beat Hillary Clinton after winning Iowa.","breaks":"The 2028 calendar opens in South Carolina, not Iowa, and the early leader, Harris, has not said she is running."},{"case":"Biden wins as early leader","year":"2020","similarity":"A former vice president leading a crowded field on name recognition and Black voter support.","outcome":"Biden lost Iowa and New Hampshire, won South Carolina decisively and consolidated the field within days.","breaks":"Biden had won two national elections as vice president; Harris lost the most recent one as the nominee."},{"case":"Stevenson renominated after a loss","year":"1956","similarity":"A party renominating the candidate who lost the previous election.","outcome":"Adlai Stevenson won the nomination again and lost again to Eisenhower.","breaks":"Stevenson's nomination came through a convention-centered system; modern primaries give voters, not party leaders, the final say."}],"scenarios":[{"name":"Harris passes and Newsom consolidates the mainstream lane","probability":0.12,"trigger":"Harris announces she will not run, Newsom launches in early 2027 and wins South Carolina or Nevada."},{"name":"Newsom wins a long delegate fight","probability":0.05,"trigger":"Newsom enters a crowded field and wins through Super Tuesday on money and California delegates."},{"name":"Harris runs and wins","probability":0.12,"trigger":"Harris enters, Newsom stands aside, and she carries South Carolina on the strength of Black voters."},{"name":"Ocasio-Cortez wins the progressive lane and the nomination","probability":0.14,"trigger":"Progressive Senate nominees win in November, she chooses the presidential race, and a divided field lets her win with pluralities."},{"name":"A younger senator or governor breaks through","probability":0.3,"trigger":"Ossoff, Buttigieg, Shapiro or Beshear wins an early state on electability and consolidates donors."},{"name":"Someone outside today's top tier wins","probability":0.27,"trigger":"A crowded field fragments and a candidate such as Pritzker, Moore, Kelly or Whitmer builds a coalition from the early states."}],"signposts":[{"signal":"Harris announces she will not run","direction":"up","effect":"+10 points for Newsom"},{"signal":"Harris hires a campaign manager or files a committee","direction":"down","effect":"-10 points for Newsom, +10 for Harris"},{"signal":"Ossoff wins reelection by five points or more and stops repeating his pledge","direction":"down","effect":"-3 points for Newsom, +8 for Ossoff"},{"signal":"Ocasio-Cortez announces a Senate run","direction":"up","effect":"+3 points for Newsom, Ocasio-Cortez falls to near zero"}],"market":{"source":"Kalshi","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxpresnomd","probability":0.13,"asOf":"2026-09-26","gapRead":"Kalshi has Newsom at 13 cents, behind Ossoff at 17 and Ocasio-Cortez at 16, with Harris at 7 and Buttigieg at 5. We rank Newsom first because he is the likeliest of the top names to actually run and has taken concrete steps toward it, while Ossoff has publicly ruled out 2028. The market and our forecast agree that no one is better than about one in six."},"stats":[{"value":"28.2% vs 14.8%","label":"Harris vs Newsom in the Pollsmax national primary average","sourceId":"d3"},{"value":"18% vs 16%","label":"Buttigieg vs Newsom in Emerson's May 2026 national poll","sourceId":"d1"},{"value":"18% vs 17%","label":"Ossoff vs Ocasio-Cortez on Kalshi when Ossoff took the lead in August","sourceId":"d4"},{"value":"4 of 8","label":"open Democratic contests from 1960 to 2004 won by the early poll leader","sourceId":"d18"},{"value":"January 22, 2028","label":"date of the first Democratic primary, in South Carolina","sourceId":"d9"}],"sources":[{"id":"d1","title":"May 2026 National Poll: Rubio Rises as 2028 Contender, Buttigieg, Newsom Top Democratic List","publisher":"Emerson College Polling","url":"https://emersoncollegepolling.com/may-2026-national-poll/","published":"2026-05-28","quote":"Former Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg leads the Democratic primary with 18%, followed by California Governor Gavin Newsom at 16%"},{"id":"d2","title":"May 2026 National Poll: Rubio Rises as 2028 Contender, Buttigieg, Newsom Top Democratic List","publisher":"Emerson College Polling","url":"https://emersoncollegepolling.com/may-2026-national-poll/","published":"2026-05-28","quote":"Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 11%, Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro at 10%, former Vice President Kamala Harris at 10%, and Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear at 9%"},{"id":"d3","title":"2028 Democratic Primary Polling Average","publisher":"Pollsmax","url":"https://www.pollsmax.com/2028-democratic-primary/","published":"2026-09-26","quote":"Kamala Harris currently leads in the 2028 Democratic primary with 28.2% support, followed by Gavin Newsom at 14.8%."},{"id":"d4","title":"Jon Ossoff Emerges as New 2028 Presidential Favorite","publisher":"The Daily Beast","url":"https://www.thedailybeast.com/jon-ossoff-emerges-as-new-2028-presidential-favorite/","published":"2026-08-27","quote":"with Ossoff, 39, at 18 percent and Ocasio-Cortez, 36, at 17 percent. California Gov. Gavin Newsom, 58, is in third place at 13 percent."},{"id":"d5","title":"Jon Ossoff Emerges as New 2028 Presidential Favorite","publisher":"The Daily Beast","url":"https://www.thedailybeast.com/jon-ossoff-emerges-as-new-2028-presidential-favorite/","published":"2026-08-27","quote":"Let me reiterate. I am not running for president in 2028. I have no interest in running for president in 2028."},{"id":"d6","title":"Kamala Harris is sticking to her own timeline on a 2028 decision","publisher":"CNN","url":"https://www.cnn.com/2026/09/17/politics/kamala-harris-2028-presidential-campaign-democrats","published":"2026-09-17","quote":"Newsom, who has been taking more definitive steps toward a presidential campaign, told CNN's Jake Tapper that he wouldn't run if Harris did"},{"id":"d7","title":"Kamala Harris is sticking to her own timeline on a 2028 decision","publisher":"CNN","url":"https://www.cnn.com/2026/09/17/politics/kamala-harris-2028-presidential-campaign-democrats","published":"2026-09-17","quote":"The reality: She hasn't landed on either yes or no."},{"id":"d8","title":"AOC says she'll decide on 2028 plans after midterm elections","publisher":"Washington Examiner","url":"https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/campaigns/4737267/aoc-electability-playing-decision-run-for-president/","published":"2026-09-22","quote":"told the New York Times that she expects to decide whether to seek a Senate seat or pursue the White House after the 2026 midterm elections"},{"id":"d9","title":"US Democrats finalise major shakeup to 2028 presidential primary calendar","publisher":"Al Jazeera","url":"https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/8/15/us-democrats-finalise-major-shakeup-to-2028-presidential-primary-calendar","published":"2026-08-15","quote":"with its Democratic primary scheduled for January 22, 2028. Nevada will go second on February 1, followed by New Hampshire on February 8."},{"id":"d10","title":"August 2026 National Poll: Democrats Lead Congressional Ballot by Eight Points; Rubio Outperforms Vance on 2028 Ballot Tests","publisher":"Emerson College Polling","url":"https://emersoncollegepolling.com/august-2026-national-poll/","published":"2026-08-20","quote":"Buttigieg is the only candidate to hold the same five-point lead against both Vance and Rubio"},{"id":"d11","title":"About Gavin Newsom","publisher":"Office of the Governor of California","url":"https://www.gov.ca.gov/about/","published":"2026-09-26","quote":"Gavin Newsom was elected as California’s 40th Governor on November 6, 2018."},{"id":"d12","title":"Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez","publisher":"Wikipedia","url":"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexandria_Ocasio-Cortez","published":"2026-09-26","quote":"has served since 2019 as the U.S. representative for New York's 14th congressional district"},{"id":"d13","title":"Jon Ossoff","publisher":"Wikipedia","url":"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jon_Ossoff","published":"2026-09-26","quote":"has served as the senior United States senator from Georgia since 2021"},{"id":"d14","title":"2024 Electoral College Results","publisher":"National Archives","url":"https://www.archives.gov/electoral-college/2024","published":"2026-09-26","quote":"Electoral Vote Winner: 312 Main Opponent: 226"},{"id":"d15","title":"Pete Buttigieg","publisher":"Wikipedia","url":"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pete_Buttigieg","published":"2026-09-26","quote":"Buttigieg narrowly won the Iowa caucuses while placing second in the popular vote"},{"id":"d16","title":"Josh Shapiro","publisher":"Wikipedia","url":"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Josh_Shapiro","published":"2026-09-26","quote":"Shapiro ran unopposed in the Democratic primary and defeated Republican nominee Doug Mastriano in the general election by a landslide"},{"id":"d17","title":"Andy Beshear","publisher":"Wikipedia","url":"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andy_Beshear","published":"2026-09-26","quote":"63rd Governor of Kentucky Incumbent Assumed office December 10, 2019"},{"id":"d18","title":"How Reliable Are the Early Presidential Polls?","publisher":"Pew Research Center","url":"https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2007/02/14/how-reliable-are-the-early-presidential-polls/","published":"2007-02-14","quote":"early Democratic poll leaders won four out of eight open contests between 1960 and 2004"},{"id":"d19","title":"Kamala Harris launches into the 2026 midterms as her 2028 decision looms","publisher":"Associated Press via WTOP","url":"https://wtop.com/national/2026/09/kamala-harris-launches-into-the-2026-midterms-as-her-2028-decision-looms/","published":"2026-09-21","quote":"California Gov. Gavin Newsom recently told CNN that he would not seek the nomination if Harris does."}],"hash":"95fa7ad9a2209d587a9de78e41b331914cd596e8bda45d9a977ff86e48c686ed"}],"faqs":[{"question":"Who will be the 2028 Democratic nominee?","answer":"As of September 26, 2026, the race is wide open. Our forecast has California Gov. Gavin Newsom narrowly first at 17 percent, followed by Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 14, Kamala Harris at 12 and Jon Ossoff at 10, while candidates outside the top seven total 27 percent. Harris leads national polls but has not decided whether to run."},{"question":"Is Kamala Harris running for president in 2028?","answer":"Kamala Harris has not decided. As of late September 2026 she says she is still thinking about it and is focusing on campaigning for Democrats in the midterms, with rallies in Michigan, Nevada and Georgia. She leads most national 2028 primary polls, at about 28 percent in the Pollsmax average, but prediction markets price her chances far lower."},{"question":"Is AOC running for president in 2028?","answer":"Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has not announced a 2028 campaign. She told the New York Times in September 2026 that she will decide after the midterms whether to run for the Senate or for president, and that she is thinking about a presidential run personally. Prediction markets rank her among the top two Democrats, and we give her a 14 percent chance."},{"question":"Is Jon Ossoff running for president?","answer":"Jon Ossoff says no. In June 2026 he told CNN he is not running for president in 2028 and has no interest in running. He is seeking reelection to the Senate in Georgia in November 2026. Kalshi traders nonetheless made him the market favorite in late August, which is why we keep him in the field at 10 percent."},{"question":"When is the first 2028 Democratic primary?","answer":"Under the calendar the Democratic National Committee adopted in August 2026, South Carolina votes first on January 22, 2028, followed by Nevada on February 1, New Hampshire on February 8, then New Mexico, Michigan and Virginia. Iowa lost its traditional first spot."}],"resolved":null,"url":"https://www.thepoliticalgroup.com/forecasts/who-will-win-the-2028-democratic-presidential-nomination"},{"kind":"field","slug":"who-will-win-the-2028-republican-presidential-nomination","question":"Who will win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?","short":"2028 Republican nominee","pillar":"domestic","topics":["white-house"],"created":"2026-09-26","resolution":{"criteria":"Resolves to the person formally nominated for president at the 2028 Republican National Convention who accepts that nomination. If the nominee withdraws after the convention and the Republican National Committee names a replacement, the question still resolves to the person nominated at the convention.","deadline":"2028-09-30","judgedBy":"The Republican National Convention roll call and acceptance, as reported by the Associated Press and the Republican National Committee"},"whyItMatters":"The Republican nominee decides whether the party carries President Trump's agenda forward unchanged, recasts it, or moves away from it, which shapes tariffs, foreign policy and the courts well past 2029.","impact":[{"audience":"Voters in early primary states","effect":"If Vice President Vance clears the field early, Iowa and New Hampshire Republicans may see a short, lightly contested race. A Rubio entry or a crowded field would bring years of visits, ads and debates."},{"audience":"Businesses exposed to trade","effect":"A Vance nomination signals continuity with the current tariff approach. A nominee from the party's more traditional wing, such as Rubio or Cruz, would likely run on a mix of tariffs and trade deals, which changes the planning horizon for importers and exporters."},{"audience":"Americans following foreign policy","effect":"Vance has been identified with the restraint wing of the party and Rubio with its more interventionist wing. Which one leads the ticket shapes what the party promises on Iran, Ukraine and allies for 2029."},{"audience":"Donors and grassroots volunteers","effect":"An early consolidation pulls money and staff behind one campaign by mid 2027. A contested race splits both, and small donors in particular get courted by several camps at once."}],"versions":[{"version":1,"published":"2026-09-26T08:10:07Z","cutoff":"2026-09-26","probability":0.55,"range":[0.42,0.68],"call":"Vance favored, but the lead is soft","headline":"As of September 26, 2026, we give Vice President JD Vance a 55 percent chance of winning the 2028 Republican nomination. He leads the national primary averages, holds the party's money machine as RNC finance chair, and his most plausible rival, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, says he has no plans to run and would back him.","field":[{"name":"JD Vance","party":"Republican","role":"Vice President of the United States","probability":0.55,"experienceYears":4,"electionsWon":3,"electionsLost":0,"record":[{"label":"Elected office before the vice presidency","value":"Elected U.S. senator from Ohio in 2022","sourceId":"r9"},{"label":"National primary polling average, late September 2026","value":"39.2%, first place","sourceId":"r3"},{"label":"Emerson national primary poll, May 2026","value":"36%, one point ahead of Rubio","sourceId":"r1"},{"label":"Party role","value":"Republican National Committee finance chair","sourceId":"r17"}],"case":"A sitting vice president with the president's reported private backing, the party's donor network and a lead in every national average is the default nominee, and every sitting vice president who sought an open nomination since 1960 won it.","risk":"A heavy midterm loss tied to the administration's record could turn his closeness to Trump into a liability and open the door to a rival who looks more electable."},{"name":"Marco Rubio","party":"Republican","role":"U.S. Secretary of State and National Security Advisor","probability":0.18,"experienceYears":24,"record":[{"label":"Senate service","value":"Senator from Florida, 2011 to 2025","sourceId":"r10"},{"label":"Emerson national primary poll, May 2026","value":"35%, up from 20% in February","sourceId":"r2"},{"label":"2016 presidential bid","value":"Suspended March 15, 2016 after losing Florida to Trump","sourceId":"r11"}],"case":"He polls about even with Vance in some surveys, runs better than Vance in Emerson's August general election tests, and holds two of the most visible jobs in the administration.","risk":"He has said repeatedly he has no plans to run and would be the first to back Vance, so he likely enters only if Vance falters or steps aside."},{"name":"Ron DeSantis","party":"Republican","role":"Governor of Florida","probability":0.05,"experienceYears":14,"record":[{"label":"2022 Florida governor's race","value":"Won by 19.4 points","sourceId":"r12"},{"label":"2024 presidential bid","value":"Withdrew January 21, 2024 and endorsed Trump","sourceId":"r13"},{"label":"Emerson national primary poll, May 2026","value":"5%","sourceId":"r1"}],"case":"He has a national donor list, a record margin in Florida and is term limited in January 2027, which frees him to run a full campaign.","risk":"His 2024 campaign collapsed before New Hampshire, and many of his past donors have since moved into the Trump and Vance orbit."},{"name":"Ted Cruz","party":"Republican","role":"U.S. Senator from Texas","probability":0.04,"experienceYears":18,"record":[{"label":"Senate service","value":"Senator from Texas since 2013","sourceId":"r14"},{"label":"2016 presidential bid","value":"Suspended after losing Indiana to Trump","sourceId":"r19"}],"case":"He finished second to Trump in 2016, keeps a large conservative media audience, and has traveled to Iowa while declining to rule out a 2028 run.","risk":"Primary voters shaped by the Trump era have rewarded loyalty to the president, and Cruz has no obvious lane that Vance does not already occupy."},{"name":"Donald Trump Jr.","party":"Republican","role":"Executive and political surrogate; has never held public office","probability":0.04,"experienceYears":0,"electionsWon":0,"electionsLost":0,"record":[{"label":"Political role","value":"Campaign surrogate for his father and 2018 midterm candidates","sourceId":"r20"},{"label":"Relationship to the frontrunner","value":"Described as very close to Vance","sourceId":"r16"}],"case":"The Trump name is the strongest brand in Republican primaries, and he would inherit his father's network instantly if he chose to run.","risk":"He is one of Vance's closest allies, which, as Fox News reported, would likely keep him out of the race."},{"name":"Someone else","party":null,"role":"Any candidate not listed, including Rick Scott, Josh Hawley, Glenn Youngkin, Brian Kemp, Nikki Haley or a media figure","probability":0.14,"record":[],"case":"Two years out, the field is not set; a crisis, a health event or a sharp break inside the Trump coalition could lift a candidate who is not on anyone's list today.","risk":"Without Trump's blessing, no candidate outside the top tier has shown the polling or money to compete with Vance."}],"lenses":{"psychology":["Vance needs two things: Trump's continued favor and a way to own the administration's record without being buried by it. He has said he will talk to Trump about running after the November midterms, which keeps him in the role of loyal deputy rather than impatient heir. Public reporting says Trump told donors privately that 'we need to elect JD,' but in public he has declined to pick between Vance and Rubio, a pattern that keeps both men dependent on him.","Rubio's incentives run the other way. His public line since May has been that he would be the first to sign up for a Vance campaign, and on September 9 he again said he has no plans to run. The audience cost of breaking that promise is high while Vance is healthy and favored, so the realistic Rubio path is one where Vance stumbles, not one where Rubio challenges him head on. Cruz and Rick Scott, who have been visiting Iowa and New Hampshire, have lower costs to test the waters because they have made no such pledge."],"history":["The reference class is sitting vice presidents who sought an open nomination: Richard Nixon in 1960, Hubert Humphrey in 1968, George H.W. Bush in 1988 and Al Gore in 2000. All four won their party's nomination. A second class points the same way: Pew found that early Republican poll leaders won six of seven open contests from 1960 to 2004. Republican primaries have historically rewarded the person next in line.","The closest analogue is Bush in 1988, a loyal vice president to a popular two-term president who beat a senator (Bob Dole) and a media figure (Pat Robertson). Where it breaks: Reagan was popular in 1987, while Trump's approval sits near 40 percent in Emerson's August poll and Republicans face a hostile midterm. Gore 2000 is the partial warning: he won the nomination easily but carried the baggage of the administration into November. The history says a sitting vice president rarely loses the nomination; it says less about one whose lead fell from 32 points to one point in three months, as Vance's did in Emerson's polling between February and May."],"statistics":["Start from the two base rates: sitting vice presidents who ran are 4 for 4 since 1960, and early Republican poll leaders are 6 for 7 in Pew's study. In our calculation, blending those gives roughly 85 percent for a Vance who runs as the clear frontrunner. Then adjust. First, he has not declared and says the decision comes after the midterms; we put the chance he runs at about 88 percent. Second, his lead is softer than the base-rate cases: the Pollsmax average has him at 39.2 percent to Rubio's 19.8 percent, but Emerson had it 36 to 35 in May. That pulls his win chance, given he runs, down to about 63 percent.","Our calculation: 0.88 times 0.63 is about 0.55. Kalshi prices Vance at 45 cents, Rubio at 20 and a long tail of Trump family members, Carlson and Cruz at 1 to 4 cents each. We are 10 points above the market on Vance because the market gives weight to Rubio entering despite his repeated statements, and to Trump himself, whom the 22nd Amendment bars from a third term. Our range of 42 to 68 percent reflects how much the midterm result could move this."]},"betweenTheLines":[{"type":"costly","signal":"Rubio skipped the Republican midterm convention in Dallas, where Vance and Cruz spoke, and flew to South America instead, the same week he said he had no plans to run.","read":"Staying off the stage where 2028 hopefuls audition is a costly way to show deference to Vance. It keeps the peace now, but it also preserves his standing as the party's fallback if Vance is damaged."},{"type":"sequencing","signal":"Vance has said he will talk to Trump about 2028 only after the November midterms.","read":"Sequencing the decision after the midterms keeps the president in the role of kingmaker and avoids pinning a midterm loss on a declared candidate. It also means the first real test of his strength comes in winter 2026."},{"type":"personnel","signal":"Trump installed Vance as Republican National Committee finance chair.","read":"The finance chair meets every major donor in the party during a midterm cycle. That is the most valuable early asset in a nomination race, and it is not a job a president gives to someone he plans to pass over."},{"type":"cheap","signal":"Cruz has traveled to Iowa without ruling out a run, and Rick Scott told a New Hampshire dinner that being president is the best job while insisting he is not running.","read":"Early-state visits and talk cost little. Until a rival hires staff in Iowa or New Hampshire or forms a committee, treat these as positioning for a Vance stumble, not a challenge."}],"baseRate":{"value":1,"label":"of sitting vice presidents who sought an open nomination since 1960 won it (Nixon, Humphrey, Bush, Gore)","n":4,"reference":"Our calculation from Pew Research Center's history of vice presidents who sought the presidency: every sitting vice president who actively sought an open nomination from 1960 to 2000 won it. Pew separately found early Republican poll leaders won six of seven open contests from 1960 to 2004.","sourceIds":["r8","r18"]},"analogues":[{"case":"George H.W. Bush succeeds Reagan","year":"1988","similarity":"A loyal vice president to a two-term Republican president, facing a senator and an insurgent media figure.","outcome":"Bush lost Iowa but won New Hampshire and swept the South to take the nomination.","breaks":"Reagan was popular going into 1988; Trump's approval is near 40 percent and the party faces a difficult midterm."},{"case":"Al Gore succeeds Clinton","year":"2000","similarity":"A sitting vice president with the party's donor base, facing a single serious challenger.","outcome":"Gore beat Bill Bradley in every primary and caucus.","breaks":"Gore had no rival inside the administration; Vance's most plausible rival is the sitting secretary of state."},{"case":"Marco Rubio's first run","year":"2016","similarity":"Rubio as the establishment-friendly Republican in a primary dominated by the Trump coalition.","outcome":"He suspended his campaign after losing his home state of Florida to Trump.","breaks":"In 2016 Rubio ran against Trump; in 2028 he would be running as a member of Trump's own cabinet."}],"scenarios":[{"name":"Vance consolidates early","probability":0.35,"trigger":"Trump signals support after the midterms, Rubio stays out, and Vance wins Iowa and New Hampshire with no serious rival."},{"name":"Vance survives a contested primary","probability":0.2,"trigger":"Cruz, DeSantis or another rival runs on electability after a bad midterm, but Vance wins on Trump's backing and loyalty among primary voters."},{"name":"Rubio enters and wins","probability":0.18,"trigger":"A heavy midterm loss or a Vance stumble leads Trump and donors to ask Rubio to run, and he wins older Republican voters decisively."},{"name":"Someone outside the top two wins","probability":0.27,"trigger":"Vance does not run or collapses, the field fragments, and DeSantis, Cruz, a Trump family member or a newcomer wins the delegate race."}],"signposts":[{"signal":"Trump publicly endorses Vance after the midterms","direction":"up","effect":"+15 points for Vance"},{"signal":"Rubio forms a committee or hires Iowa or New Hampshire staff","direction":"down","effect":"-12 points for Vance, +10 for Rubio"},{"signal":"Republicans lose both chambers by wide margins and party leaders publicly blame the administration's agenda","direction":"down","effect":"-6 points for Vance"},{"signal":"Vance leads Rubio by 20 points or more in two quality national primary polls in early 2027","direction":"up","effect":"+6 points for Vance"}],"market":{"source":"Kalshi","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxpresnomr","probability":0.45,"asOf":"2026-09-26","gapRead":"Kalshi has Vance at 45 cents, Rubio at 20, DeSantis near 4, Donald Trump Jr. near 3 and Tucker Carlson near 3. We agree on the order but are 10 points higher on Vance: the market pays for a Rubio entry he keeps disclaiming and for long shots such as Trump himself, whom the Constitution bars from a third term."},"stats":[{"value":"39.2% vs 19.8%","label":"Vance vs Rubio in the Pollsmax national primary average","sourceId":"r3"},{"value":"36% vs 35%","label":"Vance vs Rubio in Emerson's May 2026 national primary poll","sourceId":"r1"},{"value":"52% vs 20%","label":"Vance vs Rubio in Emerson's February 2026 poll","sourceId":"r2"},{"value":"29 of 49","label":"vice presidents in U.S. history who later sought a presidential nomination","sourceId":"r8"},{"value":"6 of 7","label":"open Republican contests from 1960 to 2004 won by the early poll leader","sourceId":"r18"}],"sources":[{"id":"r1","title":"May 2026 National Poll: Rubio Rises as 2028 Contender, Buttigieg, Newsom Top Democratic List","publisher":"Emerson College Polling","url":"https://emersoncollegepolling.com/may-2026-national-poll/","published":"2026-05-28","quote":"36% support Vance, 35% Rubio, while 5% support Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, respectively."},{"id":"r2","title":"May 2026 National Poll: Rubio Rises as 2028 Contender, Buttigieg, Newsom Top Democratic List","publisher":"Emerson College Polling","url":"https://emersoncollegepolling.com/may-2026-national-poll/","published":"2026-05-28","quote":"The Republican primary has shifted significantly since February, when 52% supported Vance and 20% Rubio"},{"id":"r3","title":"2028 Republican Primary Polling Average","publisher":"Pollsmax","url":"https://www.pollsmax.com/2028-republican-primary/","published":"2026-09-26","quote":"JD Vance currently leads in the 2028 Republican primary with 39.2% support, followed by Marco Rubio at 19.8%."},{"id":"r4","title":"Marco Rubio Says He Has No Plans to Run in 2028, Points to JD Vance","publisher":"Breitbart News","url":"https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2026/09/09/rubio-again-steps-aside-for-vance-in-2028-says-he-has-no-plans-to-run/","published":"2026-09-09","quote":"I don't know what the future holds, but I have no plans at this time"},{"id":"r5","title":"Marco Rubio Says He Has No Plans to Run in 2028, Points to JD Vance","publisher":"Breitbart News","url":"https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2026/09/09/rubio-again-steps-aside-for-vance-in-2028-says-he-has-no-plans-to-run/","published":"2026-09-09","quote":"Trump told donors during a private Oval Office conversation that he wants Vance to win in 2028"},{"id":"r6","title":"Marco Rubio Says He Has No Plans to Run in 2028, Points to JD Vance","publisher":"Breitbart News","url":"https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2026/09/09/rubio-again-steps-aside-for-vance-in-2028-says-he-has-no-plans-to-run/","published":"2026-09-09","quote":"Rubio said in May that he would be the first person to sign up and support Vice President JD Vance should Vance seek the nomination"},{"id":"r7","title":"Trump declines to take sides between Vance, Rubio in 2028 successor debate","publisher":"Reuters via Yahoo News","url":"https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/trump-declines-sides-between-vance-015022187.html","published":"2026-02-05","quote":"has said he will talk to Trump about the possibility of running after the November midterm elections"},{"id":"r8","title":"Most U.S. vice presidents in recent decades have sought the presidency, but relatively few have won","publisher":"Pew Research Center","url":"https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2024/08/01/most-us-vice-presidents-in-recent-decades-have-sought-the-presidency-but-relatively-few-have-won/","published":"2024-08-01","quote":"29 of the 49 people who have served as vice president since the country's founding have gone on to formally seek a party's presidential nomination"},{"id":"r9","title":"JD Vance, Vice President of the United States","publisher":"The White House","url":"https://www.whitehouse.gov/administration/jd-vance/","published":"2026-09-26","quote":"In 2022, JD Vance took his commitment to his country to the national stage and was elected to the U.S. Senate."},{"id":"r10","title":"Marco Rubio, Secretary of State","publisher":"U.S. Department of State","url":"https://www.state.gov/biographies/marco-rubio/","published":"2026-09-26","quote":"In 2010, he won a seat in the U.S. Senate. He served as U.S. Senator until 2025."},{"id":"r11","title":"Marco Rubio","publisher":"Wikipedia","url":"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marco_Rubio","published":"2026-09-26","quote":"He suspended his campaign for the presidency on March 15, 2016, after losing to Donald Trump in the Florida Republican primary"},{"id":"r12","title":"Ron DeSantis","publisher":"Wikipedia","url":"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ron_DeSantis","published":"2026-09-26","quote":"he defeated former governor Charlie Crist by 19.4%, the largest margin for either party in a gubernatorial race since 1982"},{"id":"r13","title":"Ron DeSantis","publisher":"Wikipedia","url":"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ron_DeSantis","published":"2026-09-26","quote":"On January 21, 2024, he withdrew from the presidential race and endorsed Trump."},{"id":"r14","title":"Ted Cruz","publisher":"Wikipedia","url":"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ted_Cruz","published":"2026-09-26","quote":"serving since 2013 as the junior United States Senator from Texas"},{"id":"r15","title":"Republicans start making moves to challenge JD Vance for 2028 nomination","publisher":"The Washington Post","url":"https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2026/09/22/republicans-start-making-moves-take-jd-vance-2028-nomination/","published":"2026-09-22","quote":"Vice President JD Vance is leading polls of the nascent 2028 GOP presidential primary field"},{"id":"r16","title":"Vance, Cruz head to Iowa on 2026 missions as 2028 GOP race to succeed Trump heats up","publisher":"Fox News","url":"https://www.foxnews.com/politics/vance-cruz-head-iowa-2026-missions-2028-gop-race-succeed-trump-heats","published":"2026-05-01","quote":"the younger Trump is very close to Vance, which would likely prevent him from making any White House bid"},{"id":"r17","title":"As Vance locks down early 2028 support, would-be GOP rivals look for ways to stand out","publisher":"NBC News","url":"https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2028-election/vance-2028-support-gop-rivals-rcna253621","published":"2026-01-14","quote":"he is expected to raise money and campaign across the country for GOP candidates in this year"},{"id":"r18","title":"How Reliable Are the Early Presidential Polls?","publisher":"Pew Research Center","url":"https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2007/02/14/how-reliable-are-the-early-presidential-polls/","published":"2007-02-14","quote":"In seven open Republican contests since 1960, the early front-runners held on to win the party nod six times."},{"id":"r19","title":"Ted Cruz","publisher":"Wikipedia","url":"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ted_Cruz","published":"2026-09-26","quote":"Shortly after losing overwhelmingly to Trump in the Indiana primary on May 3, Cruz suspended his campaign."},{"id":"r20","title":"Donald Trump Jr.","publisher":"Wikipedia","url":"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Trump_Jr.","published":"2026-09-26","quote":"Trump campaigned for several Republicans during the 2018 midterm elections"},{"id":"r21","title":"August 2026 National Poll: Democrats Lead Congressional Ballot by Eight Points; Rubio Outperforms Vance on 2028 Ballot Tests","publisher":"Emerson College Polling","url":"https://emersoncollegepolling.com/august-2026-national-poll/","published":"2026-08-20","quote":"Rubio performs better than Vance on multiple ballot tests"}],"hash":"83c0d8b3f828c35d0d84bb5faac3fdf83534ac6e4ce12c7e9faaf400428cba17"}],"faqs":[{"question":"Who will be the 2028 Republican nominee?","answer":"As of September 26, 2026, Vice President JD Vance is the most likely 2028 Republican nominee, with a 55 percent chance in our forecast. Secretary of State Marco Rubio is second at 18 percent. Vance leads the national primary averages and has the party's fundraising network, but his lead over Rubio has narrowed in some 2026 polls and he has not formally declared."},{"question":"Is JD Vance running for president in 2028?","answer":"JD Vance has not announced a 2028 campaign. He has said he will talk with President Trump about running after the November 2026 midterm elections. He serves as the Republican National Committee's finance chair and leads national primary polling averages, which is why most observers and prediction markets treat him as the likely frontrunner if he runs."},{"question":"Is Marco Rubio running for president in 2028?","answer":"Marco Rubio says he has no plans to run in 2028. On September 9, 2026, he said he does not know what the future holds but has no plans at this time, and in May he said he would be the first to support JD Vance if Vance runs. He has not ruled a run out, which is why we still give him an 18 percent chance."},{"question":"Can Trump run for a third term in 2028?","answer":"No. The 22nd Amendment bars anyone from being elected president more than twice, and Donald Trump won in 2016 and 2024. Prediction markets still list him at a price of about 2 cents for the Republican nomination, which reflects speculation rather than a legal path. Our forecast includes him only within the Someone else row."}],"resolved":null,"url":"https://www.thepoliticalgroup.com/forecasts/who-will-win-the-2028-republican-presidential-nomination"},{"slug":"will-the-us-and-china-agree-an-ai-hotline-by-end-of-2026","question":"Will the U.S. and China agree to an AI incident hotline by the end of 2026?","short":"U.S.-China AI hotline in 2026","pillar":"relations","topics":["us-china"],"created":"2026-09-26","resolution":{"criteria":"Resolves YES if, between September 26, 2026 and December 31, 2026, the governments of the United States and China formally announce an agreement to establish, or implement, a bilateral government-to-government mechanism for notifying each other about AI incidents that could affect national security (an AI hotline or alert system). The announcement must appear in an official readout, joint statement, agreement text, press release or formal briefing; one government's statement counts only if it says both governments agreed. An agreement to hold an AI dialogue, shared principles on AI safety, a unilateral proposal, or continuing negotiations do not count. Resolves NO otherwise.","deadline":"2026-12-31","judgedBy":"White House, Treasury or State Department statements, China's Foreign or Commerce Ministry and Xinhua readouts, and Reuters or AP reporting"},"whyItMatters":"A channel for warning each other about dangerous AI incidents, such as an autonomous cyberattack or a model misused for weapons, could cut the risk that a software failure is mistaken for an act of war between the two largest powers.","impact":[{"audience":"National security","effect":"A working alert channel gives Washington a way to ask Beijing whether an AI-driven cyber incident was state-ordered or a rogue system, before anyone retaliates. Without one, attribution in a crisis relies on guesswork."},{"audience":"Businesses and critical infrastructure","effect":"Hospitals, banks and utilities are the likeliest targets of AI-enabled attacks. Faster government-to-government warnings could shorten the time between an incident abroad and a defensive alert at home."},{"audience":"Tech investors and AI companies","effect":"U.S. negotiators say export controls on advanced chips are not part of the talks, so a hotline would not loosen sales to China. It would, however, signal a calmer bilateral climate, which markets have tended to reward."},{"audience":"Congress and AI policy","effect":"A bilateral channel could become the template for rules on frontier AI incidents that lawmakers in both parties have been pressing for, and it would test whether China honors crisis channels better than the military hotline."}],"versions":[{"version":1,"published":"2026-09-26T07:36:07Z","cutoff":"2026-09-26","probability":0.36,"range":[0.24,0.5],"call":"Less likely than the market thinks","headline":"We put the chance that the U.S. and China formally agree to an AI incident hotline by December 31, 2026 at 36 percent, as of September 26. Washington proposed it before the Washington summit, but Beijing's readouts endorsed only continued AI dialogue, and U.S.-China crisis channels usually take far longer than three months to agree.","lenses":{"psychology":["Beijing wants to be seen as a responsible AI power and to shape global rules through its own initiatives, but it resists bilateral arrangements that imply transparency about its systems or that look like U.S.-designed guardrails. Xi's line at the White House, continuing AI dialogue and jointly guarding against misuse, gives China credit for engagement without committing to an alert obligation. China's record with the military hotline, where U.S. officials say calls sometimes go unanswered, shows it values channels it controls more than channels that bind it.","Trump's incentive runs the other way from his rhetoric. He has said he wants to leave AI exactly where it is and that the Justice Department is the guardrail, yet a hotline restricts nothing and can be sold as a Cold War style red phone and a personal win with Xi. His Treasury secretary put the proposal on the table, so the White House owns it. The question is whether he spends leverage on it at APEC or the G20, where trade will crowd the agenda."],"history":["Reference class: U.S.-China crisis communication channels. The presidential link agreed in 1997 and the defense telephone link running since 2008 each came after years of proposals. The closest analogue for a fast YES is November 2014, when China hosted APEC in Beijing and the two sides signed memoranda on notifying each other of major military activities and on rules for air and sea encounters. China as host wanted deliverables, and it will host APEC again in Shenzhen in November 2026.","Where the analogue breaks: the 2014 memoranda followed more than a year of working-level drafting inside the two militaries, while the AI proposal was first tabled on September 20, 2026 inside the trade channel, run by finance and trade officials rather than technical or security agencies. The last substantive bilateral AI milestone was the 2024 Lima statement keeping human control over nuclear launch decisions, which was a principle, not a mechanism, and dedicated AI safety talks then lapsed for more than two years."],"statistics":["Base rate: of the five U.S.-China leader summits since November 2023 (Woodside, Lima, Busan, Beijing and Washington), two produced a new AI commitment of any kind and none produced an incident-notification mechanism. We estimate about a 40 percent chance that a given summit yields an AI commitment and about a 50 percent chance that such a commitment includes a qualifying alert mechanism, roughly 20 percent per summit. Two leader meetings remain before the deadline, APEC in Shenzhen in November and the G20 in Miami in December: 1 minus 0.8 times 0.8 gives 0.36.","Adjustments roughly cancel. Up: China confirmed it held its first AI talks with the United States and both sides agreed to meet again on AI, and China hosts APEC with an incentive to announce deliverables. Down: the September summit, the best venue so far, produced no AI agreement, and both Chinese readouts omitted the alert mechanism. We stay at 0.36, well below Kalshi's 0.51."]},"betweenTheLines":[{"type":"omission","signal":"Xinhua's readout of the New York talks said only that the sides discussed AI, and Xi's Oval Office readout called for continued AI dialogue and guarding against misuse, without mentioning the U.S. notification proposal.","read":"Beijing has accepted the dialogue frame but not the alert obligation. If it were close to yes, state media would already be claiming the idea as a shared initiative."},{"type":"personnel","signal":"The AI talks sit inside the Bessent and He Lifeng economic channel, and Greer said chip export controls are not part of them.","read":"Housing AI in the trade track makes a hotline a possible sweetener in a year-end trade package, which is the main path to YES. It also means the negotiators lack the technical mandate to design incident categories quickly, which is the main reason for delay."},{"type":"cheap","signal":"Trump posted that he wants to leave AI exactly where it is and that the Justice Department is the guardrail, and told the UN the United States will encourage AI, not rein it in.","read":"The president is not spending capital on AI safety. A hotline survives only if it is framed as a crisis phone, not a safety regime, and only if Xi wants to hand him a win."},{"type":"sequencing","signal":"The U.S. tabled the proposal on September 20, four days before the summit, and the two sides agreed to meet again on AI afterward.","read":"A proposal made that late was not meant to be signed at this summit. The realistic target is APEC in Shenzhen, where China controls the agenda and can present any channel as its own idea."}],"baseRate":{"value":0,"label":"of five U.S.-China leader summits since 2023 produced an AI incident-notification mechanism","n":5,"reference":"Computed by TPG from the Woodside (2023), Lima (2024), Busan (2025), Beijing (May 2026) and Washington (September 2026) summits. Tech Times and CNBC reporting document the Lima AI statement, the lapse in AI talks and the September 2026 outcome; the per-summit rate used in the statistics lens is our estimate.","sourceIds":["s3","s5"]},"analogues":[{"case":"APEC Beijing military notification memoranda","year":"2014","similarity":"China hosted APEC and agreed with the U.S. on a mechanism to notify each other of major military activities, a close cousin of an incident alert system.","outcome":"Signed during Obama's November 2014 visit to Beijing.","breaks":"Those texts were drafted by the two militaries over more than a year; the AI proposal is weeks old and run by trade officials."},{"case":"Lima Biden and Xi statement on AI and nuclear weapons","year":"2024","similarity":"A leader-level AI commitment announced at an APEC summit.","outcome":"Both affirmed that humans, not AI, should control decisions on nuclear weapons use.","breaks":"It was a statement of principle with no operational channel; a hotline requires both governments to build and staff a mechanism."}],"scenarios":[{"name":"Hotline agreed at APEC in Shenzhen","probability":0.2,"trigger":"China as host announces an AI risk communication channel with the U.S. as a summit deliverable."},{"name":"Hotline agreed at the G20 in Miami or in a year-end trade package","probability":0.16,"trigger":"The alert mechanism is bundled with a broader trade deal or truce extension in December."},{"name":"Dialogue continues, no mechanism in 2026","probability":0.54,"trigger":"The sides announce working groups or principles but defer an incident-notification commitment into 2027."},{"name":"AI talks stall","probability":0.1,"trigger":"New U.S. chip controls, sanctions tied to Iran, or a Taiwan dispute freeze the AI track."}],"signposts":[{"signal":"Chinese state media or the Foreign Ministry names the notification mechanism as a shared goal","direction":"up","effect":"+12 points"},{"signal":"A second U.S.-China AI working-level meeting is held with technical agencies, not only trade officials","direction":"up","effect":"+8 points"},{"signal":"Trump confirms travel to APEC in Shenzhen","direction":"up","effect":"+3 points"},{"signal":"Washington announces new AI chip export controls aimed at China before APEC","direction":"down","effect":"-10 points"}],"market":{"source":"Kalshi","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxuschinaaihotline","probability":0.51,"asOf":"2026-09-26","gapRead":"Kalshi's contract, with near-identical rules, trades at 0.51 for agreement before January 1, 2027. We are 15 points lower for three specific reasons: the September summit, the most favorable venue so far, produced no AI deal; both Chinese readouts left the alert mechanism out; and every prior U.S.-China crisis channel took well over three months from proposal to agreement. Traders may be over-weighting the APEC host effect."},"stats":[{"value":"May 2024","label":"last dedicated U.S.-China AI safety talks before September 2026, a gap of more than two years","sourceId":"s3"},{"value":"2008","label":"year the U.S.-China military hotline began, the model for an AI channel","sourceId":"s1"},{"value":"48 hours","label":"response window on the military hotline, where U.S. officials say calls sometimes go unanswered","sourceId":"s2"},{"value":"95 percent","label":"of AI war-game simulations in which leading models engaged in nuclear signaling, per a 2026 study","sourceId":"s4"},{"value":"1997","label":"year Clinton and Jiang agreed to create the first U.S.-China presidential link","sourceId":"s6"}],"sources":[{"id":"s1","title":"What's the US-China AI hotline that Trump plans to pitch to Xi Jinping?","publisher":"Al Jazeera","url":"https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/9/21/whats-the-us-china-ai-hotline-that-trump-plans-to-pitch-to-xi","published":"2026-09-21","quote":"The two countries have had a military hotline since 2008, designed to allow senior defence officials to communicate during potentially dangerous incidents."},{"id":"s2","title":"What's the US-China AI hotline that Trump plans to pitch to Xi Jinping?","publisher":"Al Jazeera","url":"https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/9/21/whats-the-us-china-ai-hotline-that-trump-plans-to-pitch-to-xi","published":"2026-09-21","quote":"It gives both sides 48 hours to respond, though US officials have complained that sometimes no one picks up."},{"id":"s3","title":"US-China AI Hotline Needs Text, Tiers, and Technicians: Trump-Xi Summit Opens Today","publisher":"Tech Times","url":"https://www.techtimes.com/articles/327985/20260924/us-china-ai-hotline-needs-text-tiers-technicians-trump-xi-summit-opens-today.htm","published":"2026-09-24","quote":"the two countries met in Geneva in May 2024 for dedicated AI safety talks"},{"id":"s4","title":"US-China AI Hotline Needs Text, Tiers, and Technicians: Trump-Xi Summit Opens Today","publisher":"Tech Times","url":"https://www.techtimes.com/articles/327985/20260924/us-china-ai-hotline-needs-text-tiers-technicians-trump-xi-summit-opens-today.htm","published":"2026-09-24","quote":"occurred in 95 percent of games, with GPT-5.2, Claude Sonnet 4, and Gemini 3 Flash all treating nuclear threats as routine strategic tools"},{"id":"s5","title":"China's Xi urges U.S. to cooperate on AI","publisher":"CNBC","url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/25/chinas-xi-urges-us-to-cooperate-on-ai.html","published":"2026-09-24","quote":"The two sides can continue AI dialogue, exchange views on risks and benefits, and together guard against the misuse or malicious use of AI"},{"id":"s6","title":"What's the US-China AI hotline that Trump plans to pitch to Xi Jinping?","publisher":"Al Jazeera","url":"https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/9/21/whats-the-us-china-ai-hotline-that-trump-plans-to-pitch-to-xi","published":"2026-09-21","quote":"In 1997, former US President Bill Clinton and his then-Chinese counterpart Jiang Zemin agreed to create a"},{"id":"s7","title":"U.S. proposes exchanging AI safety alerts with China, Bessent says","publisher":"NBC News","url":"https://www.nbcnews.com/world/asia/us-proposes-exchanging-ai-safety-alerts-china-bessent-says-rcna598923","published":"2026-09-20","quote":"did not mention the U.S. proposal and said only that the two sides had discussed AI."},{"id":"s8","title":"China confirms first AI talks with U.S. have taken place, hints at trade truce extension","publisher":"CNBC","url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/24/china-confirms-first-ai-talks-with-us-have-taken-place-hints-at-trade-truce-extension.html","published":"2026-09-24","quote":"China's Commerce Ministry confirmed Thursday that its senior trade negotiators had held their first talks with the U.S. on artificial intelligence."}],"hash":"042745047fdd6ed9f4f4f935e4fedbe50e2760f6061cecad25ab20247d955502"}],"faqs":[{"question":"What is the US China AI hotline?","answer":"It is a U.S. proposal, made by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in talks with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng on September 20, 2026, for a notification mechanism that would let each government warn the other about AI incidents serious enough to threaten national security. As of September 26, 2026, China had not publicly accepted it."},{"question":"Did Trump and Xi agree on AI?","answer":"Not on anything concrete. At their September 2026 Washington summit, Xi said the two sides can continue AI dialogue and guard against misuse, and Trump said he wants to leave AI exactly where it is. No AI agreement or hotline was announced, though the two sides agreed to keep talking about AI."},{"question":"Will the US and China cooperate on AI safety?","answer":"Some cooperation is likely, but a formal incident hotline in 2026 is less likely than not. TPG puts the chance of an agreed U.S.-China AI incident notification mechanism by December 31, 2026 at 36 percent, with the best opportunities at APEC in Shenzhen in November and the G20 in Miami in December."},{"question":"Does the US have a hotline with China?","answer":"Yes. The two countries agreed in 1997 to create a direct presidential link, and they have had a military hotline since 2008 for senior defense officials. It gives each side 48 hours to respond, but U.S. officials have complained that sometimes no one answers. There is no AI-specific channel yet."}],"resolved":null,"url":"https://www.thepoliticalgroup.com/forecasts/will-the-us-and-china-agree-an-ai-hotline-by-end-of-2026"},{"slug":"will-the-us-or-israel-strike-iran-again-by-december-31-2026","question":"Will the U.S. or Israel strike Iranian territory again by December 31, 2026?","short":"U.S. or Israel strikes Iran by Dec 31","pillar":"relations","topics":["israel-iran","middle-east","economy"],"created":"2026-09-26","resolution":{"criteria":"Resolves YES if, between September 27, 2026 and December 31, 2026 (inclusive), U.S. or Israeli military forces carry out a kinetic strike (air, missile, drone, naval gunfire or ground raid) on a target located on Iranian land territory, including Iranian islands such as Larak, Qeshm, Kharg and Hengam, as confirmed by the U.S. or Israeli government or reported by at least two of Reuters, AP and the BBC. Strikes on ships or boats at sea, including in Iranian territorial waters, cyberattacks and covert sabotage without a confirmed U.S. or Israeli military strike do not count. Resolves NO otherwise.","deadline":"2026-12-31","judgedBy":"U.S. Central Command or Israel Defense Forces statements, or reporting by Reuters, AP and the BBC"},"whyItMatters":"Whether strikes on Iran resume decides the path of oil and gasoline prices, the safety of U.S. troops in the Gulf and the fate of the Strait of Hormuz before and after the midterms.","impact":[{"audience":"Drivers","effect":"U.S. regular gasoline averaged $4.48 a gallon on September 24, 2026, the highest ever for that time of year, driven by Strait of Hormuz volatility. Renewed strikes would likely push prices higher; a restored ceasefire and reopened strait would be the fastest route to relief."},{"audience":"Investors and retirees","effect":"Brent crude touched $108 on September 24. A new strike campaign would likely add to the oil risk premium and pressure airline, shipping and consumer stocks, while energy and defense shares tend to benefit."},{"audience":"U.S. service members and families","effect":"Every round of U.S. strikes since the war began has drawn Iranian missile and drone retaliation on U.S. bases in Jordan, Kuwait, Bahrain and the UAE. Continued exchanges keep deployed forces at risk."},{"audience":"Travelers","effect":"Gulf airspace closures and rerouted flights follow each exchange of fire. Travelers to the Gulf, Jordan and Israel should expect sudden cancellations while strikes remain possible."},{"audience":"Taxpayers","effect":"The Pentagon Inspector General put the war's cost at $33.4 billion through June, and air-defense interceptor stocks are heavily drawn down, so each new round adds to replacement costs in future defense budgets."}],"versions":[{"version":1,"published":"2026-09-26T07:36:07Z","cutoff":"2026-09-26","probability":0.68,"range":[0.55,0.8],"call":"Likely: the lull is fragile, the triggers are not","headline":"We estimate a 68 percent chance the U.S. or Israel strikes Iranian soil again by December 31, 2026. The U.S. has not struck Iran ashore since early September and talks restarted, but the blockade, the closed strait and Trump's reported rejection of Iran's ceasefire plan leave the triggers for renewed strikes in place.","lenses":{"psychology":["President Trump's record in this war is to strike when Iran threatens shipping or U.S. forces, then to describe the conflict as small and signal openness to a deal. On August 31 the U.S. hit rocket launchers on Larak Island it said were preparing to lay sea mines, and after Iran fired missiles at a U.S. base in Jordan it struck about 100 IRGC targets around the strait. That is a consistent enforce-then-talk pattern: he has not let an attack on shipping or U.S. forces go unanswered. He also reportedly rejected Iran's latest ceasefire proposal and expects the war to continue past the midterms, which lowers the political cost of more strikes rather than raising it.","Tehran's leadership, under a new Supreme Leader after the February strikes, needs the U.S. blockade lifted and cannot be seen to reopen the strait for nothing. It has paired a 60-day ceasefire road map with a four-to-five-day ultimatum and threats of continuous attacks, a mix that keeps the IRGC active at sea. Israel's government has framed the February strikes as one of its easiest decisions and says it is fighting on seven fronts; it has not struck Iran recently, but it has shown it will act on its own timeline when it sees a nuclear or missile threat rebuilding."],"history":["The reference class is this war's own record. Since fighting began on February 28, 2026, the longest stretch without U.S. or Israeli strikes on Iranian soil was the April 8 to July 8 ceasefire, about 91 days, and even that period saw violations by both sides before collapsing. The window in this question is 96 days. After the July collapse, strikes ashore came in July, again on August 31 after a month-long pause, and in the first week of September. Every roughly 30-day window since July 8 has contained at least one strike ashore.","The closest analogue is the 1987 to 1988 Tanker War, when U.S. forces escorting shipping in the Gulf struck Iranian platforms and naval units in response to mining and attacks on tankers, until Iran accepted a UN ceasefire in 1988. The pattern of mines leading to limited U.S. strikes matches today's Larak Island strike closely. It breaks because 1988 ended with an exhausted Iran accepting terms, while today Iran still holds the strait as leverage and the U.S. is running a blockade, which gives both sides reasons to keep testing each other."],"statistics":["Base rate: in every 30-day window since the July 8 ceasefire collapse there has been at least one U.S. strike on Iranian soil, and no stretch of the war without strikes has lasted as long as 96 days. Treating the monthly chance of at least one strike ashore as about 60 percent while no ceasefire is in force, three months gives 1 minus 0.4 cubed, or about 94 percent. That is the no-deal ceiling.","Adjustments: the chance a ceasefire is restored soon enough to cover most of the window is meaningful. Witkoff and Kushner met Araghchi on September 23, Iran tabled a 60-day ceasefire road map, and mediators report progress, but Trump reportedly rejected the proposal. We give about a 35 percent chance of a restored ceasefire by early November that then largely holds, and even then a 20 percent chance of a violation strike. So: 0.65 times 0.94 (no deal) plus 0.35 times 0.20 (deal) is about 0.61 plus 0.07, or 68 percent. Low Patriot interceptor stocks argue for U.S. restraint, which is why we do not go higher."]},"betweenTheLines":[{"type":"costly","signal":"The U.S. blockade had redirected 109 vessels as of September 20, and Saudi Arabia is moving crude ship-to-ship and restarting its East-West pipeline after it was attacked.","read":"A blockade is expensive to sustain and forces Iran to respond at sea. As long as it runs, the IRGC has reasons to lay mines or fire on ships, which is exactly what triggered the August 31 and September 2 strikes ashore."},{"type":"omission","signal":"CENTCOM published no statement of any kind from September 19 through at least September 25, the whole UN General Assembly week, while U.S. officials told reporters the strait was 60 to 70 percent reopened.","read":"Silence from the command running the war while the White House talks to Iran's foreign minister suggests a deliberate pause to give diplomacy room, not a settled end to operations. Such pauses have ended before, as the month-long August lull did."},{"type":"cheap","signal":"Iran's Rezaei gave Washington four to five days to accept Iran's terms \"completely and all at once,\" while President Pezeshkian on the same day offered to readmit inspectors and dilute stockpiles if the U.S. returns to the June memorandum.","read":"Two Iranian voices moving in opposite directions on the same day is a negotiating split, not a policy. The ultimatum is cheap talk unless the IRGC acts on it; the conciliatory offer is the one to watch because it names concrete concessions."},{"type":"sequencing","signal":"Iran's foreign minister said a deal would be better before the U.S. midterm election, and Trump reportedly responded that he expects the war to continue after the midterms.","read":"Tehran is trying to use the November 3 election as leverage on Washington. Trump declining that timeline suggests he sees less cost in waiting, which raises the odds of at least one more round of strikes before year end."}],"baseRate":{"value":0.94,"label":"chance of at least one strike ashore in 3 months if no ceasefire is restored","n":3,"reference":"Desk computation from the war's daily record since the July 8 ceasefire collapse: strikes on Iranian soil in July, on August 31 and in early September, with no 30-day window free of strikes. We treat each month without a ceasefire as roughly a 60 percent chance of a strike ashore, so 1 minus 0.4 cubed is about 0.94.","sourceIds":["s2","s5"]},"analogues":[{"case":"Tanker War and Operation Praying Mantis","year":"1988","similarity":"U.S. naval forces in the Gulf responding to Iranian mining and attacks on tankers with limited strikes on Iranian assets.","outcome":"Repeated U.S. strikes through 1987 and 1988, ending only when Iran accepted a UN ceasefire in August 1988.","breaks":"In 1988 Iran was exhausted after eight years of war with Iraq. Today Iran still controls much of the strait's traffic, and the U.S. is running a blockade, so both sides keep a reason to test each other."},{"case":"2026 Iran war ceasefire","year":"2026","similarity":"A U.S.-Iran ceasefire mediated by Pakistan, extended and then formalized in the June Islamabad memorandum.","outcome":"Took effect April 8, was violated by both sides, and collapsed on July 8 after attacks by both sides.","breaks":"A restored deal could be stronger if it includes a phased strait reopening and a blockade end, which the July version lacked."},{"case":"Twelve-Day War","year":"2025","similarity":"Israeli and U.S. strikes on Iran followed by a ceasefire.","outcome":"The June 2025 ceasefire held for about eight months before the February 2026 strikes.","breaks":"That ceasefire ended a short war with no blockade or strait closure. Today's standoff has many more daily friction points at sea."}],"scenarios":[{"name":"Ceasefire restored and holds through year end","probability":0.24,"trigger":"The U.S. accepts a version of Iran's road map: phased strait reopening, blockade eased and a 60-day ceasefire that is extended."},{"name":"Armed standoff at sea, no strikes ashore","probability":0.08,"trigger":"Clashes stay limited to ships and boats, with both sides avoiding strikes on land while talks drag on."},{"name":"Limited tit-for-tat U.S. strikes","probability":0.42,"trigger":"IRGC mining or attacks on ships or U.S. forces prompt U.S. strikes on coastal launchers, radars or island sites."},{"name":"Talks collapse and a major U.S. air campaign resumes","probability":0.2,"trigger":"The ultimatum expires, Iran escalates against Gulf infrastructure or U.S. bases, and Washington resumes large-scale strikes."},{"name":"Israel strikes Iran","probability":0.06,"trigger":"Israel acts against a rebuilt missile or nuclear site, alone or alongside the U.S."}],"signposts":[{"signal":"U.S. and Iran announce a restored ceasefire with a timeline to reopen the strait","direction":"down","effect":"-25 points"},{"signal":"The U.S. eases or lifts the naval blockade","direction":"down","effect":"-15 points"},{"signal":"IRGC lays new mines or attacks a U.S. warship","direction":"up","effect":"+15 points"},{"signal":"Iranian missiles hit a U.S. base or Gulf oil facility causing casualties","direction":"up","effect":"+20 points"},{"signal":"CENTCOM resumes daily strike statements","direction":"up","effect":"+10 points"}],"market":null,"stats":[{"value":"~100","label":"IRGC targets the U.S. struck around the Strait of Hormuz starting Sept. 1","sourceId":"s2"},{"value":"$108","label":"Brent crude high on September 24, 2026","sourceId":"s1"},{"value":"$4.48","label":"U.S. average gallon of regular, a record for late September","sourceId":"s3"},{"value":"109","label":"vessels redirected by the U.S. naval blockade as of Sept. 20","sourceId":"s6"},{"value":"830 of 2,330","label":"U.S. Patriot interceptors estimated left versus pre-war stock","sourceId":"s7"}],"sources":[{"id":"s1","title":"Iran War 2026, Day 210 Update, 25 September 2026","publisher":"GlobalSecurity.org","url":"https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/ops/iran-war-oprep.htm","published":"2026-09-25","quote":"Brent traded as high as $108 on Thursday, 24 September"},{"id":"s2","title":"Iran War 2026 Daily Update Calendar","publisher":"GlobalSecurity.org","url":"https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/ops/iran-war-update.htm","published":"2026-09-25","quote":"US Central Command completes a wave of strikes against approximately 100 IRGC targets in and around the Strait of Hormuz"},{"id":"s3","title":"National Average Climbs Nearly 5 Cents Since Last Week","publisher":"AAA","url":"https://newsroom.aaa.com/2026/09/national-average-climbs-nearly-5-cents-since-last-week/","published":"2026-09-24","quote":"At $4.48 per gallon, this is the highest the national average has ever been for this time of year."},{"id":"s4","title":"Trump rejects Iranian ceasefire proposal, expects war to continue after midterm elections (live updates)","publisher":"The Jerusalem Post","url":"https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/2026-09-25/live-updates-909655","published":"2026-09-26","quote":"Trump rejects Iranian ceasefire proposal, expects war to continue after midterm elections"},{"id":"s5","title":"2026 Iran war ceasefire","publisher":"Wikipedia","url":"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Iran_war_ceasefire","published":"2026-09-26","quote":"On 8 July, the ceasefire deal collapsed after attacks by both sides."},{"id":"s6","title":"Iran War 2026, Day 210 Update, 25 September 2026","publisher":"GlobalSecurity.org","url":"https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/ops/iran-war-oprep.htm","published":"2026-09-25","quote":"which stands unrevised at 109 vessels as published on 20 September"},{"id":"s7","title":"Iran War 2026, Day 210 Update, 25 September 2026","publisher":"GlobalSecurity.org","url":"https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/ops/iran-war-oprep.htm","published":"2026-09-25","quote":"fewer than 830 Patriot interceptors remaining of a pre-war 2,330"},{"id":"s8","title":"Iran War 2026, Day 210 Update, 25 September 2026","publisher":"GlobalSecurity.org","url":"https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/ops/iran-war-oprep.htm","published":"2026-09-25","quote":"This is the eighteenth consecutive operational period without an announced strike ashore"}],"hash":"b6ed7eb4150cf3cd6fb759eccc0d2fecf2eb2f292f1bff71178434ab42947baa"}],"faqs":[{"question":"Will the US bomb Iran again?","answer":"We think it is more likely than not. As of September 26, 2026, we put the chance of a U.S. or Israeli strike on Iranian soil by December 31, 2026 at 68 percent. The U.S. struck Iran ashore on August 31 and in early September, and the blockade and closed strait keep producing clashes. A restored ceasefire is the main path to no strikes."},{"question":"Is the Iran war over?","answer":"No. The war that began on February 28, 2026 paused under an April ceasefire that collapsed on July 8. The U.S. has not announced a strike on Iranian land since early September, and U.S. envoys met Iran's foreign minister on September 23, but a U.S. blockade continues and Iran keeps the Strait of Hormuz largely closed. Trump reportedly rejected Iran's latest ceasefire plan."},{"question":"Why are gas prices so high right now?","answer":"The biggest driver is the Iran war. Disruption in the Strait of Hormuz and high crude prices pushed the U.S. average for regular gasoline to $4.48 on September 24, 2026, AAA says, a record for that time of year. Brent crude touched $108 the same day. A restored ceasefire that reopens the strait would ease prices; renewed strikes would likely raise them."},{"question":"Will Israel attack Iran again?","answer":"Israel has not struck Iran in recent weeks and is focused on Lebanon and other fronts, but its leaders describe the February 2026 strikes as an easy decision and have acted on their own timeline before. We give about a 6 percent chance of an Israeli strike specifically by December 31, 2026, within our overall 68 percent chance of a U.S. or Israeli strike."}],"resolved":null,"url":"https://www.thepoliticalgroup.com/forecasts/will-the-us-or-israel-strike-iran-again-by-december-31-2026"},{"slug":"will-us-and-mexico-reach-interim-usmca-agreement-by-end-of-2026","question":"Will the U.S. and Mexico reach an interim USMCA trade agreement by the end of 2026?","short":"U.S.-Mexico USMCA interim deal in 2026","pillar":"relations","topics":["us-mexico","trade-tariffs","americas"],"created":"2026-09-26","resolution":{"criteria":"Resolves YES if, between September 26, 2026 and December 31, 2026 (U.S. Eastern time), the United States and Mexico announce that they have concluded a written interim, framework or final agreement arising from the 2026 USMCA review that sets at least one new or revised commitment on how the USMCA operates or on trade between the two countries, confirmed by USTR or the White House and by Mexico's Secretaria de Economia or presidency. Announcements of further negotiating rounds, statements that talks are progressing, or a pause or cut in unilateral tariffs with no written agreement do not count. Resolves NO otherwise.","deadline":"2026-12-31","judgedBy":"USTR and White House releases, Mexico's Secretaria de Economia, and Reuters or AP reporting"},"whyItMatters":"Mexico is the largest U.S. trading partner, and a deal or a stalemate decides the tariff and rules-of-origin terms behind American car prices, farm exports and border factory jobs.","impact":[{"audience":"Car buyers and auto workers","effect":"Mexico supplies 42 percent of the auto parts the United States imports. An interim deal could ease the 25 percent Section 232 auto tariff on Mexican vehicles and parts; a stalemate keeps those costs in sticker prices and leaves new plant investment on hold."},{"audience":"U.S. farmers","effect":"Two-way U.S.-Mexico farm trade hit $74.5 billion in 2025, and Mexico is the top buyer of U.S. corn. A deal would lock in market access and biotech rules; drawn-out talks keep that exposure uncertain."},{"audience":"Grocery shoppers","effect":"Avocados, tomatoes and beef from Mexico enter duty-free under USMCA. The agreement stays in force either way, but a breakdown in talks raises the risk of new tariffs on food imports."},{"audience":"Manufacturers and importers","effect":"Without a deal the USMCA stays in force but on an annual review clock, which makes long-term supply contracts harder to sign. Steel and aluminum users would benefit if a deal trims the 50 percent metals tariff on Mexican supply."},{"audience":"Investors","effect":"A deal would reduce risk premiums on the Mexican peso and on companies with North American supply chains; a rupture would do the opposite."}],"versions":[{"version":1,"published":"2026-09-26T07:36:07Z","cutoff":"2026-09-26","probability":0.37,"range":[0.25,0.5],"call":"Possible, but the autos fight likely slips to 2027","headline":"We give a 37 percent chance that the U.S. and Mexico conclude an interim USMCA agreement by December 31, 2026, as of September 26. The list of U.S. demands has shrunk from 54 to 14, but Washington's demand for 50 percent U.S. content in cars remains unresolved, and every earlier Mexico deal deadline passed without a deal.","lenses":{"psychology":["President Sheinbaum needs a deal that removes the 25 percent auto and 50 percent metals tariffs without conceding a U.S.-specific content rule that would hollow out Mexico's car industry, which exports most of its output north. Her public line since 2025 has been steady optimism paired with refusal to publish terms, which lets her claim progress without paying the domestic cost of concessions until a package is final.","Washington's side is split between a trade agenda and a security agenda. Ambassador Greer has said he would love arrangements with Mexico and Canada by year end, but he has also tied progress to issues outside trade, down to water deliveries under a 1944 treaty. Trump's record with Mexico is to extend deadlines after calls with Sheinbaum rather than sign, while using harsher treatment of Canada as a warning. An interim deal is the kind of win he likes before or just after the November 3 midterms, but only if it can be sold as a U.S. victory on autos or the deficit."],"history":["Reference class: Trump-era deadlines for a U.S.-Mexico trade deal. The 90-day window Trump opened on July 31, 2025 ended in late October with only an extension of a few more weeks; that extension also ended without a deal; and the July 1, 2026 joint review ended with the United States declining to renew. That is 0 of 3.","The closest analogue is the 2018 NAFTA renegotiation, when the United States and Mexico reached a bilateral preliminary deal in August 2018 after about a year of talks and missed target dates, and Canada joined weeks later. It suggests a U.S.-Mexico bilateral text can come first and fast once autos are settled. It breaks because in 2018 both sides wanted to finish before Mexico's new president took office, a hard external deadline that does not exist in 2026, and because the current U.S. demand for 50 percent U.S.-specific content goes well beyond the 2018 labor-value rule."],"statistics":["Base rate: 0 of 3 Mexico deadlines produced a deal. With a small-sample adjustment of one success and one failure added, that is 1 of 5, or 0.20. Adjustment up 12 points: this goal is an interim agreement that by design defers the hardest issues, the open list is down from 54 items to 14, and Sheinbaum said after a September 16 call with Trump that an agreement is advancing. Adjustment up 5 points: a year-end target set by the chief U.S. negotiator in Senate testimony carries some reputational weight.","Net: 0.20 plus 0.12 plus 0.05 is 0.37. That sits right at the Kalshi midpoint of about 0.36. We hold the range wide, 0.25 to 0.50, because the fourth negotiating round, reported for September 28 to 29, will reveal quickly whether the autos gap has narrowed."]},"betweenTheLines":[{"type":"cheap","signal":"After a September 16 call with Trump, Sheinbaum said a Mexico-U.S. agreement is advancing well but declined to release any terms.","read":"In October 2025 she said Mexico was practically closing the issue, and eleven months later there is still no text. Presidential optimism about this file has been cheap; watch for a signed document or a USTR fact sheet instead."},{"type":"sequencing","signal":"The fourth U.S.-Mexico round, expected the week of September 21 in Washington, was reported pushed to September 28 to 29, and Mexico's Economy Ministry said the date was not confirmed.","read":"Slipping dates usually mean the principals have not yet agreed on what the round is supposed to close. It is consistent with autos still being open."},{"type":"costly","signal":"Washington hit Canada with 50 percent Section 338 tariffs and import bans on some Canadian goods, while USMCA-qualifying Mexican goods stayed exempt from the new Section 301 tariffs.","read":"The contrast is a deliberate signal that Mexico is the preferred partner and a warning of the alternative. It raises the cost to Mexico of walking away, which modestly favors an interim deal, but it also shows Washington is willing to escalate rather than compromise."},{"type":"omission","signal":"Greer's public list for a Mexico deal includes non-trade items such as compliance with the 1944 water treaty.","read":"When a trade deal is tied to water deliveries and security cooperation, the trade ministers alone cannot close it. That makes timing depend on leader-level bargaining, which has repeatedly produced extensions rather than signatures."}],"baseRate":{"value":0.2,"label":"small-sample adjusted rate: 0 of 3 Trump-era Mexico deal deadlines produced a deal","n":3,"reference":"Computed by TPG from the July 31, 2025 90-day window, the late October 2025 extension of a few more weeks, and the July 1, 2026 joint review, then adjusted to 1 of 5 with one added success and failure.","sourceIds":["s6","s5","s7"]},"analogues":[{"case":"U.S.-Mexico preliminary deal in the NAFTA renegotiation","year":"2018","similarity":"Bilateral U.S.-Mexico talks, autos rules of origin at the core, Canada on a separate and more hostile track.","outcome":"A U.S.-Mexico preliminary agreement came in late August 2018 after about a year of talks; Canada joined about a month later and USMCA was signed that November.","breaks":"Mexico's outgoing government had a hard deadline before its December 2018 handover; no comparable forcing date exists now."},{"case":"Trump's 2025 framework deals with the UK, Japan and the EU","year":"2025","similarity":"Short framework texts announced by leaders that deferred details, often within weeks of a tariff deadline.","outcome":"Frameworks were announced quickly, then filled in over months.","breaks":"Those deals mainly traded tariff rates; the Mexico talks hinge on rules of origin that reshape factory footprints, which is much harder to paper over."}],"scenarios":[{"name":"Interim deal announced before the midterms","probability":0.1,"trigger":"The late-September round closes autos and metals and Trump announces a framework in October."},{"name":"Interim deal announced in November or December","probability":0.27,"trigger":"Post-midterm bargaining trades partial Section 232 relief for tighter content or China-related rules, meeting Greer's year-end goal."},{"name":"Talks roll into 2027 without a deal","probability":0.53,"trigger":"The 50 percent U.S.-content demand stays unresolved and both sides extend talks toward the next annual review on July 1, 2027."},{"name":"Talks rupture","probability":0.1,"trigger":"A security, water or migration dispute prompts new U.S. tariffs on Mexico or a suspension of talks."}],"signposts":[{"signal":"USTR publishes a readout of the fourth round that says autos rules of origin were resolved or narrowed","direction":"up","effect":"+12 points"},{"signal":"Trump adjusts Section 232 tariffs on Mexican autos or metals","direction":"up","effect":"+10 points"},{"signal":"No fifth round is scheduled by the end of October","direction":"down","effect":"-8 points"},{"signal":"Trump threatens new tariffs on Mexico over cartels, migration or water deliveries","direction":"down","effect":"-10 points"}],"market":{"source":"Kalshi","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxusmcaoutcomes","probability":0.36,"asOf":"2026-09-26","gapRead":"Kalshi's U.S.-Mexico interim agreement contract, which also requires a written agreement before January 1, 2027, has a 0.31 bid and 0.41 ask. We are one point above the midpoint: we agree with traders that the hard autos issue probably slips, and we see no evidence to diverge."},"stats":[{"value":"54 to 14","label":"U.S. demands on Mexico still unresolved after three rounds, down from 54","sourceId":"s2"},{"value":"$196.9 billion","label":"record U.S. goods trade deficit with Mexico in 2025, up 15 percent from 2024","sourceId":"s1"},{"value":"42 percent","label":"of all U.S. imported auto parts come from Mexico","sourceId":"s3"},{"value":"25% and 50%","label":"U.S. tariffs on Mexican autos and on steel and aluminum that Mexico wants eased first","sourceId":"s4"},{"value":"90 Day","label":"window Trump set in July 2025 to sign a Mexico deal, which passed without one","sourceId":"s6"}],"sources":[{"id":"s1","title":"Tracking the U.S.-Mexico Talks in the USMCA Review","publisher":"Americas Society/Council of the Americas","url":"https://www.as-coa.org/articles/tracking-us-mexico-talks-usmca-review","published":"2026-07-30","quote":"the U.S. goods trade deficit with Mexico, which reached a record $196.9 billion in 2025, up 15 percent from 2024."},{"id":"s2","title":"USMCA September 2026 Update: What Manufacturers Need to Know","publisher":"Prince Manufacturing","url":"https://princemanufacturing.com/usmca-september-2026-update-manufacturing-mexico-canada/","published":"2026-09-04","quote":"Mexico and the U.S. have knocked a 54-item list down to 14."},{"id":"s3","title":"Tracking the U.S.-Mexico Talks in the USMCA Review","publisher":"Americas Society/Council of the Americas","url":"https://www.as-coa.org/articles/tracking-us-mexico-talks-usmca-review","published":"2026-07-30","quote":"accounting for 42 percent of all U.S. imported auto parts"},{"id":"s4","title":"Mexico, US Set Fourth Round of USMCA Review Talks for September","publisher":"Mexico Business News","url":"https://mexicobusiness.news/trade-and-investment/news/mexico-us-set-fourth-round-usmca-review-talks-september","published":"2026-07-27","quote":"Mexico seeks relief from 25% auto and 50% steel/aluminum tariffs before advancing other issues"},{"id":"s5","title":"Mexico's Sheinbaum says she and Trump agreed to extend trade deadline","publisher":"Al Jazeera","url":"https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2025/10/27/mexicos-sheinbaum-says-she-and-trump-agreed-to-extend-trade-deadline","published":"2025-10-27","quote":"adding that the two countries were aiming to resolve 54 outstanding trade barriers."},{"id":"s6","title":"Trump extends Mexico's 25% tariffs for 90 days as talks continue","publisher":"CNBC","url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/31/trump-tariffs-mexico-extension.html","published":"2025-07-31","quote":"with the goal of signing a Trade Deal somewhere within the 90 Day period of time, or longer"},{"id":"s7","title":"Ambassador Greer Issues Statement on the USMCA Joint Review","publisher":"Office of the U.S. Trade Representative","url":"https://ustr.gov/about/policy-offices/press-office/press-releases/2026/july/ambassador-greer-issues-statement-usmca-joint-review","published":"2026-07-01","quote":"The United States did not agree to renew the USMCA in its current form."},{"id":"s8","title":"Tracking the U.S.-Mexico Talks in the USMCA Review","publisher":"Americas Society/Council of the Americas","url":"https://www.as-coa.org/articles/tracking-us-mexico-talks-usmca-review","published":"2026-07-30","quote":"Greer signaled a goal of interim agreements with Mexico and Canada by the end of the year"}],"hash":"5ac1b9bcdd4f9672e3ff92f58951aead2c46a1cbfd184e53b693fd490fa46813"}],"faqs":[{"question":"What happened at the USMCA review in July 2026?","answer":"At the mandatory joint review on July 1, 2026, the United States declined to renew the USMCA for another 16 years, while Mexico and Canada were ready to extend it. The agreement stays fully in force but now faces annual reviews and would expire in 2036 unless all three countries agree to renew it."},{"question":"Will the US and Mexico make a trade deal in 2026?","answer":"As of September 26, 2026, TPG gives a 37 percent chance that the two countries conclude a written interim USMCA agreement by December 31. The open list of U.S. demands has shrunk from 54 to 14, but Washington's call for 50 percent U.S. content in Mexican-built cars remains the main obstacle."},{"question":"Is USMCA ending?","answer":"No. The United States declined to renew USMCA in July 2026, but that does not end it. Its tariff preferences, rules of origin and dispute settlement remain in force, and it only expires on July 1, 2036 if the three countries never agree to extend it. Any member can still withdraw with six months' notice."},{"question":"What tariffs does the US have on Mexico?","answer":"Goods that qualify under USMCA rules still enter duty-free. Mexico also faces U.S. Section 232 tariffs of 25 percent on autos and 50 percent on steel and aluminum, which Mexico wants eased before it agrees to other U.S. demands in the review."}],"resolved":null,"url":"https://www.thepoliticalgroup.com/forecasts/will-us-and-mexico-reach-interim-usmca-agreement-by-end-of-2026"},{"slug":"will-the-us-china-trade-truce-be-extended-past-january-2027","question":"Will the U.S.-China trade truce be extended past January 10, 2027?","short":"US-China truce extended past Jan 10","pillar":"relations","topics":["us-china","trade-tariffs"],"created":"2026-09-26","resolution":{"criteria":"Resolves YES if, on or before January 10, 2027, the U.S. government (White House, Treasury, USTR or Commerce) or China's Ministry of Commerce publicly announces that the trade truce agreed at Busan in October 2025, as extended to January 10, 2027, is extended beyond January 10, 2027, or is replaced by a broader agreement under which the U.S. suspension of Section 301 port fees on China-linked vessels and China's suspension of its rare earth export controls continue past that date. A Federal Register notice extending those suspensions counts. Resolves NO if no such extension or replacement is announced by January 10, 2027, or if either side formally ends the truce or reimposes the suspended measures before then.","deadline":"2027-01-10","judgedBy":"Official U.S. Treasury, USTR or White House statements, China Ministry of Commerce statements, the Federal Register, and wire reports (Reuters, AP)"},"whyItMatters":"The truce keeps rare earth magnets flowing to U.S. factories, holds off new port fees that would raise shipping costs on Chinese goods, and sustains Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans and aircraft, so a lapse would hit consumer prices, farm income and manufacturing supply chains at once.","impact":[{"audience":"Shoppers","effect":"The truce holds off fees and retaliation that would add costs to Chinese-made goods. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer has also floated lower tariffs on lists of Chinese consumer and low-tech goods as part of a larger package. Tariffs already cost an estimated $820 per household in 2026, and a collapse would push that up."},{"audience":"Farmers","effect":"China committed to buy 25 million tons of U.S. soybeans a year and is meeting that pledge, but it is lagging on $17 billion in other farm purchases. A lapse would put soybean export sales, and farm incomes in the Midwest, back at risk."},{"audience":"Manufacturers and auto workers","effect":"Rare earth magnets used in motors, electronics and defense systems still come mostly from China. Shipments to the U.S. were already down 20% in August from July; ending the truce would restore Chinese export controls on them."},{"audience":"Importers, shippers and small businesses","effect":"The truce suspends U.S. port fees on China-linked vessels. If they return, ocean freight rates on Chinese goods would rise and be passed on to retailers and small importers."},{"audience":"Retirement accounts","effect":"The last near-collapse of a U.S.-China truce, in October 2025, came with threats of 100% tariffs and a sharp market sell-off before the Busan deal. Extensions have tended to calm stocks exposed to trade, including the large technology and industrial companies that dominate index funds."}],"versions":[{"version":1,"published":"2026-09-26T07:36:07Z","cutoff":"2026-09-26","probability":0.8,"range":[0.68,0.89],"call":"Likely extended again, on a short leash","headline":"We put the chance the U.S.-China trade truce is extended past January 10, 2027, or replaced by a broader deal, at 80%, as of September 26, 2026. Both sides have extended every formal truce deadline since 2018 because each holds a choke point the other cannot afford to trigger: Chinese rare earths against American chips and farm purchases.","lenses":{"psychology":["President Trump needs visible wins he can hold up: soybean sales, a large Boeing order and steady rare earth deliveries, at a moment when an Iran war has already pushed gasoline and diesel to records. He also hosts the G20 in Miami in December, and a collapse of the truce weeks earlier would put Xi Jinping's attendance in doubt. The two-month length is the tell: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said China has deliverables that \"have not been perfect,\" so Washington chose a short leash rather than a clean six-month or one-year rollover that many had expected.","Xi needs stable access to the U.S. market and relief on technology restrictions, and his strongest lever, rare earth export controls, is one he cannot fully pull without speeding up Western alternatives. That mutual vulnerability is why analysts describe the relationship as detente, not rapprochement.","On the record, Trump's threats against China have been followed by rapid reversals when the costs arrive. Tariffs hit 145% in April 2025 and were cut to 30% in May. A threatened 100% tariff in October 2025 gave way to the Busan deal within weeks. His September 4, 2026 threat to stop trading with every country that runs a surplus with the U.S. has not been acted on. Loud escalation followed by a deal is the pattern."],"history":["Reference class: the U.S.-China trade truces since 2018. The December 2018 Buenos Aires truce was extended at its March 2019 deadline. The May 2025 Geneva truce was extended for 90 days in August 2025. That extension ran into the Busan deal of October 2025, which replaced it with a one-year arrangement. The Busan deal was extended on September 23, 2026 to January 10, 2027. Every formal deadline has been met with an extension or a replacement. The one failure came between deadlines: talks collapsed in May 2019 and the U.S. raised tariffs to 25%.","Closest analogue: August 2025, when the Geneva truce was extended by 90 days after inconclusive talks in Stockholm, with Washington saying the president had the final say. The same structure applies now: a short extension, unhappiness about Chinese follow-through, and a leaders' meeting on the calendar.","Where the analogy breaks. The Supreme Court struck down the IEEPA tariffs in February 2026, so the truce now turns more on port fees, export rules and rare earths than on headline tariff rates, and the U.S. has fewer quick tariff tools to threaten with. The midterms will be over by January, which removes one reason for Washington to avoid market turmoil. And the Iran war adds friction, since China is a major buyer of Iranian oil and the president has told aides a renewed bombing campaign looks likely."],"statistics":["Base rate: of the five U.S.-China truce periods since 2018, four ended in an extension or a replacement deal and one broke down, which gives 80%. Counting only formal deadlines, the record is four for four, which argues for higher.","Adjustments. Down 5 points because the two-month term signals U.S. dissatisfaction and the short window leaves little slack for a mishap. Down 4 points for post-midterm freedom to escalate and Iran-related friction over Chinese oil purchases. Up 5 points for the calendar: APEC in Shenzhen in November and the G20 in Miami in December give both leaders deadlines to bank a deliverable, and Bessent said a larger package or a simple rollover are both possible. Up 4 points for mutual leverage: rare earth shipments have already slipped, and both sides know the cost of triggering the other's choke point.","80 minus 5 minus 4 plus 5 plus 4 lands at 80%. The range of 68% to 89% reflects how quickly past truces have swung: the October 2025 near-collapse went from threatened 100% tariffs to a signed deal in about three weeks."]},"betweenTheLines":[{"type":"sequencing","signal":"Bessent announced the extension on Fox News only minutes after Xi's plane touched down in Washington, after an unscheduled meeting with Vice Premier He Lifeng.","read":"Both sides wanted the truce banked before the summit began so the state visit could not fail on trade. That is a sign neither side wants a rupture, even while bargaining hard."},{"type":"costly","signal":"The truce was extended by two months when many expected six months or longer.","read":"A shorter extension costs Washington some market calm, so choosing it signals real frustration with Chinese purchases and rare earth licensing. It raises the odds of brinkmanship in December, but it also schedules the next decision point right at the G20, where a deal is easier to announce."},{"type":"omission","signal":"Xi's official arrival readout did not mention tariffs, rare earths or artificial intelligence, and Chinese state media did not immediately note Bessent's announcement.","read":"Beijing avoided publicly owning the short extension, which keeps its options open and avoids appearing to accept U.S. conditions. That is typical bargaining posture, not a signal of withdrawal."},{"type":"cheap","signal":"On September 4 Trump threatened to stop trading with countries that run surpluses with the U.S. unless the Fed cut rates.","read":"China is the largest such country, but the threat was aimed at the Fed and has not been followed by any action. We treat it as noise for this question unless it turns into an executive order."}],"baseRate":{"value":0.8,"label":"of U.S.-China trade truce periods since 2018 ended in an extension or replacement deal (4 of 5)","n":5,"reference":"Computed by TPG from the timeline of the China and United States trade war: Buenos Aires truce (extended March 2019, then collapsed May 2019), Geneva truce (extended August 2025), the August 2025 extension (replaced by the Busan deal), and the Busan deal (extended September 2026). Counted as four successful rollovers out of five truce periods.","sourceIds":["s5"]},"analogues":[{"case":"Geneva truce extension","year":"2025","similarity":"A 90-day truce reached a deadline after inconclusive talks, with Washington signaling that the president had the final say.","outcome":"Extended by 90 days on August 11, 2025, then replaced by the Busan deal after a brief October escalation.","breaks":"Tariff rates were the core of that truce; after the Supreme Court's IEEPA ruling, port fees, export controls and rare earths carry more of the weight."},{"case":"Buenos Aires truce collapse","year":"2019","similarity":"A truce was extended once while the U.S. complained that China was backsliding on commitments.","outcome":"Talks collapsed in May 2019 and the U.S. raised tariffs to 25%, before a new truce at the G20 in Osaka in June.","breaks":"In 2019 neither side had the rare earth and chip choke points that now make escalation costly within weeks."},{"case":"October 2025 near-collapse","year":"2025","similarity":"China tightened rare earth controls and Trump threatened 100% tariffs shortly before a scheduled leaders' meeting.","outcome":"The Busan summit produced a one-year truce within about three weeks.","breaks":"That crisis came before a deadline with a summit already scheduled; a December flare-up would be closer to the expiry date."}],"scenarios":[{"name":"Another rollover","probability":0.52,"trigger":"Chinese purchases and rare earth licenses improve enough that Washington extends by three to twelve months, likely around APEC or the Miami G20."},{"name":"Broader package replaces the truce","probability":0.28,"trigger":"The Board of Trade tariff lists, farm purchases and a Boeing order are bundled into a larger deal announced before January 10."},{"name":"Silent lapse","probability":0.07,"trigger":"No announcement by January 10 while talks continue, so the truce technically expires even if neither side acts right away."},{"name":"Breakdown and escalation","probability":0.13,"trigger":"A dispute over rare earths, chips, Taiwan or Iranian oil leads either side to reimpose suspended measures."}],"signposts":[{"signal":"Xi confirms attendance at the G20 in Miami in December","direction":"up","effect":"+5 points"},{"signal":"China's rare earth magnet exports to the U.S. rebound in September or October customs data","direction":"up","effect":"+4 points"},{"signal":"The U.S. announces tariff cuts on Chinese consumer goods under the Board of Trade","direction":"up","effect":"+6 points"},{"signal":"New U.S. chip export restrictions on China or sanctions on Chinese buyers of Iranian oil","direction":"down","effect":"-10 points"},{"signal":"China reimposes rare earth licensing curbs or the U.S. publishes a port fee start date","direction":"down","effect":"-25 points"}],"market":null,"stats":[{"value":"25 million tons","label":"annual U.S. soybean purchase China committed to, which it is meeting","sourceId":"s2"},{"value":"$17 billion","label":"in other U.S. farm purchases on which China is lagging","sourceId":"s2"},{"value":"20%","label":"drop in Chinese rare earth magnet shipments to the U.S. in August versus July","sourceId":"s3"},{"value":"11.8%","label":"estimated U.S. applied tariff rate in 2026, up from 1.5% in 2022","sourceId":"s4"},{"value":"$820","label":"average 2026 tax increase per U.S. household from tariffs","sourceId":"s6"},{"value":"90","label":"day extension that rolled over the last truce in August 2025","sourceId":"s5"}],"sources":[{"id":"s1","title":"U.S. and China agree to extend trade truce through Jan. 10, Bessent says","publisher":"NBC News","url":"https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/us-china-extend-trade-truce-trump-rcna599525","published":"2026-09-23","quote":"agreed to extend a bilateral trade truce that was set to expire in November through Jan. 10"},{"id":"s2","title":"Five takeaways from Trump's summit with Xi in Washington","publisher":"Reuters via WSAU","url":"https://wsau.com/2026/09/24/four-takeaways-from-trumps-summit-with-xi-in-washington/","published":"2026-09-24","quote":"buy 25 million tons of soybeans but was lagging on its pledge to buy $17 billion in other agricultural goods"},{"id":"s3","title":"Soybeans, planes and rare earths: What they say about fragile U.S.-China trade truce","publisher":"CNBC","url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/23/trump-xi-summit-us-china-trade-rare-earth-soybean-plane.html","published":"2026-09-23","quote":"down 20% from July and 13% from a year earlier"},{"id":"s4","title":"Trump Tariffs Tracker: Rates, Revenue, and Impact","publisher":"Tax Foundation","url":"https://taxfoundation.org/research/all/federal/trump-tariffs-trade-war/","published":"2026-09-10","quote":"We estimate the current tariffs will raise the applied tariff rate to 11.8 percent, up from 1.5 percent in 2022."},{"id":"s5","title":"China and United States trade war","publisher":"Wikipedia","url":"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%E2%80%93United_States_trade_war","published":"2026-09-24","quote":"President Trump announced that the United States would extend their trade truce another 90 days to ease trade tensions with China"},{"id":"s6","title":"Trump Tariffs Tracker: household burden","publisher":"Tax Foundation","url":"https://taxfoundation.org/research/all/federal/trump-tariffs-trade-war/","published":"2026-09-10","quote":"In 2026, we estimate the tariffs will increase taxes by an average of $820 per US household"},{"id":"s7","title":"U.S.-China trade truce extended for two months, Bessent says, as Xi begins state visit","publisher":"CNBC","url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/24/us-china-trade-truce-bessent-trump-xi.html","published":"2026-09-24","quote":"many had expected the truce would be extended by six months or longer"},{"id":"s8","title":"Trump threatens to halt trade with top partners unless Fed cuts rates","publisher":"CNBC","url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/04/trump-fed-rates-jobs-trade.html","published":"2026-09-04","quote":"President Donald Trump demanded that the Federal Reserve slash interest rates or else he will cut off trade with countries with which the U.S. maintains trade deficits."},{"id":"s9","title":"Iran awaits US move after WSJ report says Trump rejects peace plan","publisher":"Reuters via Cyprus Mail","url":"https://cyprus-mail.com/2026/09/26/iran-awaits-us-move-after-wsj-report-says-trump-rejects-peace-plan","published":"2026-09-26","quote":"he told his staff that he sees a renewed bombing campaign as likely"}],"hash":"61def18b216f82408b9a7be7e971e17fefac511d3a8cfa224361f5acd6a2c3c7"}],"faqs":[{"question":"When does the US China trade truce expire?","answer":"The truce now runs to January 10, 2027. It was set to expire on November 10, 2026, but Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced a two-month extension on September 23 as Xi Jinping arrived for a state visit. TPG puts the chance it is extended again, or replaced by a broader deal, by January 10 at 80%, as of September 26, 2026."},{"question":"Will tariffs on China go up in 2027?","answer":"Probably not sharply, if the truce holds, which TPG rates at 80%. The truce suspends U.S. port fees on China-linked vessels and China's rare earth export controls. A lapse would bring those back and invite new tariffs. Separately, the U.S. applied tariff rate on all imports is estimated at 11.8% in 2026, up from 1.5% in 2022, according to the Tax Foundation."},{"question":"Is China keeping its trade deal promises?","answer":"Partly. Bessent said China is meeting its pledge to buy 25 million tons of U.S. soybeans but lagging on $17 billion in other farm purchases. Rare earth magnet shipments to the U.S. fell 20% in August from July, and a promised 200-plane Boeing order is arriving in pieces. That uneven record is why Washington extended the truce by only two months."},{"question":"What happens if the US China trade truce ends?","answer":"China could reimpose rare earth export controls, which would squeeze U.S. makers of motors, electronics and defense equipment, and the U.S. could start charging port fees on China-linked ships, raising freight costs on Chinese goods. Soybean sales would be at risk. When a truce nearly collapsed in October 2025, it produced threats of 100% tariffs and a market sell-off before a deal was reached."}],"resolved":null,"url":"https://www.thepoliticalgroup.com/forecasts/will-the-us-china-trade-truce-be-extended-past-january-2027"},{"slug":"will-a-nato-member-invoke-article-4-by-june-30-2027","question":"Will a NATO member invoke Article 4 by June 30, 2027?","short":"NATO Article 4 invoked by mid-2027","pillar":"relations","topics":["russia-nato","us-allies","europe"],"created":"2026-09-26","resolution":{"criteria":"Resolves YES if, between September 27, 2026 and June 30, 2027, any NATO member government formally requests consultations under Article 4 of the North Atlantic Treaty, as confirmed by NATO or by that government, for any reason (including a Russian incursion, a spillover from the Iran war, or any other threat). An invocation of Article 5 also resolves YES. Consultations held without a formal Article 4 request, EU-level mechanisms, and national statements that merely mention Article 4 do not count. Resolves NO otherwise.","deadline":"2027-06-30","judgedBy":"NATO official statements and its Article 4 topic page, or the requesting government's announcement"},"whyItMatters":"An Article 4 request is NATO's formal alarm bell short of war, and each one reshapes U.S. troop deployments, defense budgets and the risk that the Ukraine war spills into allied territory.","impact":[{"audience":"U.S. service members and families","effect":"Past Article 4 requests led to new allied air-defense missions, such as Eastern Sentry after Poland's 2025 request, which can mean new or longer U.S. deployments to Poland, Romania and the Baltics."},{"audience":"Taxpayers","effect":"Each alarm on the eastern flank strengthens the case for higher allied and U.S. air-defense spending, at a time when U.S. interceptor stocks are already drawn down by the Iran war."},{"audience":"Investors","effect":"Article 4 requests have tended to lift European defense stocks and briefly hit Polish and Baltic markets. A formal request would add a risk premium to European assets."},{"audience":"Travelers to eastern Europe","effect":"Drone incursions have repeatedly closed or disrupted airports in Poland, Germany and elsewhere; an incident serious enough to trigger Article 4 would likely bring airspace restrictions near the border."},{"audience":"Families with ties to Poland and the Baltics","effect":"An Article 4 request is not a war declaration, but it signals that an ally feels directly threatened and wants a collective response."}],"versions":[{"version":1,"published":"2026-09-26T07:36:07Z","cutoff":"2026-09-26","probability":0.2,"range":[0.12,0.3],"call":"Unlikely: allies keep absorbing incursions nationally","headline":"We estimate a 20 percent chance a NATO member formally invokes Article 4 by June 30, 2027. Russian incursions are more frequent than ever, including a September 23 helicopter crossing into Poland, but no ally has requested Article 4 since September 2025, even after a Russian cruise missile landed 100 kilometres inside Poland.","lenses":{"psychology":["Frontline governments face a two-sided audience cost. Invoking Article 4 shows voters that the alliance is engaged, but using it for every drone would cheapen the tool and invite Moscow to keep probing just below the line. Poland's record in 2026 shows a government choosing national responses instead: it summoned Russia's ambassador over the Kh-101 missile, issued a pre-authorized shoot-down order on September 17 and scrambled jets for the September 23 Mi-8 helicopter, all without a formal request. Warsaw called the helicopter incident Russia testing its air defenses again, which is language that frames the problem as manageable.","Moscow's behavior on the record is to probe with deniable or brief incursions (drones, a helicopter for 42 seconds, missiles that stray off course) paired with loud threats, while avoiding a clearly deliberate strike on allied soil. That pattern is designed to stay below the Article 4 threshold that frontline states have implicitly raised. The main risk is an incident that kills people on allied territory, which would remove the political room to handle it nationally."],"history":["The reference class is NATO's own record. NATO says Article 4 has been invoked nine times since 1949, all since 2003: five times by Türkiye (Iraq and Syria spillovers and terrorism), by Poland in 2014, by eight eastern allies on the day of Russia's 2022 invasion, and by Poland and Estonia in September 2025 after mass drone and fighter-jet violations. Those nine requests fall on eight distinct occasions, and every Russia-related one followed an event that was large, clearly deliberate or both.","The closest analogue is September 2025, when 19 Russian drones entered Poland in one night and Estonia followed after three MiG-31s spent about 12 minutes in its airspace. It breaks because allies have since built national and NATO tools, such as Eastern Sentry and pre-authorized shoot-down rules, that let them respond without a formal request. The record since shows a rising threshold: a Kh-101 cruise missile 100 kilometres inside Poland in July 2026, an armed drone shot down over Lithuania on September 15 and Germany's attribution of an explosive-carrying drone at Leipzig to Russia produced no request."],"statistics":["Base rate: eight distinct Article 4 occasions in the 23.6 years since the first use in February 2003 is about 0.34 a year. Over the 9-month window that is a Poisson rate of about 0.25, or a 22 percent chance of at least one request. Counting only Russia-related occasions since 2014 (2014, 2022 and 2025), the rate is about 0.24 a year, or about 16 percent over 9 months. We start at 20 percent, between the two.","Adjustments: plus 4 points because incursions are at record frequency (Romania alone logged at least 23 drone violations in 2026 by August 21) and the Iran war puts Türkiye, the most frequent requester, next to an active conflict; minus 4 points because frontline allies have visibly raised the threshold and now handle serious incidents nationally or through Eastern Sentry, and because some are pushing a separate EU consultation protocol that could absorb future requests. 20 plus 4 minus 4 is 20 percent."]},"betweenTheLines":[{"type":"costly","signal":"Poland's operational commander issued a pre-authorized shoot-down order on September 17, and Baltic Air Policing was converted into an air-defense mission that has made its first kinetic kills of drones in 22 years.","read":"Allies are spending money and accepting the risk of shooting down Russian objects, which is a costly signal of resolve. It also means they now have a way to respond without Article 4, which lowers the odds of a formal request for mid-level incidents."},{"type":"omission","signal":"No ally requested Article 4 after a Russian Kh-101 cruise missile came down about 100 kilometres inside Poland on July 30, 2026, or after an armed drone was shot down over Lithuania on September 15.","read":"These were more serious than some past triggers, and the silence is the strongest evidence that the working threshold has risen to incidents that cause casualties or look clearly deliberate. That is why our number sits at the base rate despite more incursions."},{"type":"cheap","signal":"Russian officials have issued loud threats against Poland in September 2026 while the actual incursions stay brief and deniable, like the Mi-8 that spent 42 seconds in Polish airspace.","read":"Threats cost Moscow little. The brief, reversible nature of the incursions is the more telling signal: Russia is testing readiness while avoiding the kind of clearly deliberate strike that would force an Article 4 request."},{"type":"sequencing","signal":"European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen proposed \"Europe's own Article 4\", an emergency security protocol, in her September 16 State of the Union address, citing Denmark, Lithuania, Poland and the Leipzig drone.","read":"Building an EU channel for consultations suggests European leaders want a forum below NATO's formal alarm. If it takes shape, it becomes a substitute for Article 4 for gray-zone incidents, pushing our number down."}],"baseRate":{"value":0.2,"label":"chance of at least one Article 4 request in a 9-month window","n":8,"reference":"Desk computation from NATO's list of nine Article 4 invocations on eight distinct occasions since 2003 (Poisson rate of about 0.34 a year gives 22 percent over 9 months) blended with the Russia-related subset since 2014 (about 0.24 a year, 16 percent over 9 months).","sourceIds":["s1"]},"analogues":[{"case":"Poland and Estonia requests","year":"2025","similarity":"Russian drones and fighter jets violating allied airspace during the Ukraine war.","outcome":"Two Article 4 requests in September 2025 and the launch of NATO's Eastern Sentry mission.","breaks":"Those were the first mass drone incursion and a prolonged fighter-jet violation. Since then allies have built tools to answer without a formal request."},{"case":"Przewodów missile strike","year":"2022","similarity":"A missile landed in Poland during a Russian strike wave and killed two people.","outcome":"Poland considered but did not request Article 4 after the missile was assessed to be a stray Ukrainian air-defense round.","breaks":"Attribution drove the decision; a clearly Russian weapon causing deaths today would be much more likely to trigger a request."},{"case":"Türkiye requests over Syria","year":"2012 to 2020","similarity":"An ally next to an active war facing spillover strikes and shoot-downs.","outcome":"Four Türkiye requests over Syria and terrorism between 2012 and 2020.","breaks":"Türkiye has not requested Article 4 during the 2026 Iran war, suggesting Ankara prefers to manage that conflict on its own terms."}],"scenarios":[{"name":"Incursions continue, handled nationally and through Eastern Sentry","probability":0.66,"trigger":"Drones, missiles and brief aircraft violations continue without deaths on allied soil."},{"name":"EU or bilateral consultations used instead","probability":0.1,"trigger":"A serious incident prompts consultations outside Article 4, such as an EU protocol or a North Atlantic Council meeting without a formal request."},{"name":"Ukraine ceasefire reduces incidents","probability":0.04,"trigger":"A ceasefire in Ukraine sharply cuts the strike waves that produce stray drones and missiles."},{"name":"Casualty-causing or clearly deliberate Russian incident","probability":0.14,"trigger":"A Russian drone or missile kills people in Poland, Romania or the Baltics, or a deliberate attack on infrastructure is attributed to Russia."},{"name":"Non-Russian trigger","probability":0.04,"trigger":"Türkiye or another ally requests consultations over Iran war spillover or another threat."},{"name":"Article 5 level attack","probability":0.02,"trigger":"An armed attack on an ally leads to Article 5 consultations, which also resolves YES."}],"signposts":[{"signal":"A Russian drone or missile kills civilians or soldiers on NATO territory","direction":"up","effect":"+35 points"},{"signal":"Russia launches another mass drone wave that crosses into Poland or Romania","direction":"up","effect":"+8 points"},{"signal":"The EU adopts a formal consultation protocol for hybrid attacks","direction":"down","effect":"-4 points"},{"signal":"A general Russia-Ukraine ceasefire takes effect","direction":"down","effect":"-8 points"},{"signal":"Iranian missiles or drones strike Turkish territory","direction":"up","effect":"+6 points"}],"market":null,"stats":[{"value":"9","label":"Article 4 invocations in NATO's history, the last in September 2025","sourceId":"s1"},{"value":"23","label":"drone violations of Romanian airspace in 2026 by August 21","sourceId":"s3"},{"value":"100 km","label":"how far inside Poland a Russian Kh-101 cruise missile came down in July 2026","sourceId":"s4"},{"value":"42 seconds","label":"time a Russian Mi-8 helicopter spent in Polish airspace on Sept. 23","sourceId":"s5"},{"value":"144","label":"drone incursions over European airports and military sites since August 2024","sourceId":"s6"}],"sources":[{"id":"s1","title":"The consultation process and Article 4","publisher":"NATO","url":"https://www.nato.int/en/what-we-do/introduction-to-nato/the-consultation-process-and-article-4","published":"2025-09-23","quote":"Since the Alliance’s creation in 1949, Article 4 has been invoked nine times."},{"id":"s2","title":"Russian Drone and Missile Incursions into NATO Territory: The Running Record","publisher":"Großwald","url":"https://www.grosswald.org/russian-drone-and-missile-incursions-nato-territory/","published":"2026-09-18","quote":"No ally has requested Article 4 consultations since Estonia's request of 19 September 2025"},{"id":"s3","title":"Russian Drone and Missile Incursions into NATO Territory: The Running Record","publisher":"Großwald","url":"https://www.grosswald.org/russian-drone-and-missile-incursions-nato-territory/","published":"2026-09-18","quote":"Romania's defence ministry counted at least 23 drone violations of its airspace in 2026 by 21 August"},{"id":"s4","title":"Russian Drone and Missile Incursions into NATO Territory: The Running Record","publisher":"Großwald","url":"https://www.grosswald.org/russian-drone-and-missile-incursions-nato-territory/","published":"2026-09-18","quote":"A Russian Kh-101 cruise missile comes down roughly 100 kilometres inside Poland near Tarnawa-Kolonia"},{"id":"s5","title":"Russian Mi-8 Helicopter Briefly Violates Polish Airspace, Poland Scrambles Fighters","publisher":"Kyiv Post","url":"https://www.kyivpost.com/post/85239","published":"2026-09-23","quote":"The helicopter entered Polish airspace from Russia’s Kaliningrad Oblast at 11:08 a.m. local time and remained there for 42 seconds"},{"id":"s6","title":"Russian Drone and Missile Incursions into NATO Territory: The Running Record","publisher":"Großwald","url":"https://www.grosswald.org/russian-drone-and-missile-incursions-nato-territory/","published":"2026-09-18","quote":"an IISS count put drone incursions over European airports and military sites alliance-wide at 144 since August 2024"},{"id":"s7","title":"ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 23, 2026","publisher":"Kyiv Post (Institute for the Study of War)","url":"https://www.kyivpost.com/post/85279","published":"2026-09-24","quote":"High-ranking Kremlin officials effectively rejected the US-Ukrainian-proposed limited energy ceasefire"}],"hash":"088e833fde3cc8b5c67aff38d9be986412a4d494508e73b53b06ab89aafca1d4"}],"faqs":[{"question":"What is NATO Article 4?","answer":"Article 4 lets any NATO member call for formal consultations when it believes its territorial integrity, political independence or security is threatened. It is not a call to arms; that is Article 5. NATO says Article 4 has been invoked nine times since 1949, most recently by Poland and Estonia in September 2025 after Russian drone and fighter-jet incursions."},{"question":"Will Russia attack NATO?","answer":"A deliberate Russian attack on NATO remains unlikely in our view, but incursions are frequent: Romania alone logged at least 23 drone violations in 2026 by August 21, and a Russian helicopter briefly entered Polish airspace on September 23. We put the chance of any ally formally invoking Article 4 by June 30, 2027 at 20 percent, and an Article 5 level attack at about 2 percent."},{"question":"Has Poland invoked Article 4 in 2026?","answer":"No. As of September 26, 2026, no NATO member has requested Article 4 consultations since Estonia on September 19, 2025. Poland handled a Russian cruise missile that came down about 100 kilometres inside the country in July 2026 and a helicopter incursion in September with national measures, including summoning Russia's ambassador and scrambling fighter jets."},{"question":"What would trigger NATO Article 5?","answer":"Article 5 applies to an armed attack on a NATO member, which allies then decide how to answer collectively. It has been invoked once, after the September 11, 2001 attacks. Brief drone or aircraft incursions have not been treated as Article 5 attacks. We give an Article 5 level attack on an ally about a 2 percent chance by June 30, 2027."}],"resolved":null,"url":"https://www.thepoliticalgroup.com/forecasts/will-a-nato-member-invoke-article-4-by-june-30-2027"},{"slug":"will-china-hold-a-major-military-drill-around-taiwan-by-june-30-2027","question":"Will China launch a large-scale military exercise around Taiwan by June 30, 2027?","short":"Major PLA drill near Taiwan by mid-2027","pillar":"relations","topics":["china-taiwan","us-china","asia-pacific"],"created":"2026-09-26","resolution":{"criteria":"Resolves YES if, between September 27, 2026 and June 30, 2027, the People's Liberation Army Eastern Theater Command publicly announces a joint military exercise or drill conducted in multiple zones around Taiwan (the category that includes the August 2022 drills, Joint Sword-2024A and 2024B, Strait Thunder-2025A and Justice Mission-2025), as confirmed by Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense or by Reuters or AP. A declared blockade, quarantine or customs inspection regime around Taiwan also resolves YES. Routine joint combat readiness patrols, single-area live-fire drills off the Fujian coast and China Coast Guard patrols near Kinmen or Pratas do not count on their own. Resolves NO otherwise.","deadline":"2027-06-30","judgedBy":"PLA Eastern Theater Command announcements, Taiwan Ministry of National Defense statements, Reuters or AP"},"whyItMatters":"Large PLA drills are Beijing's main pressure signal on Taiwan, and each one tests U.S. deterrence and jolts the chip supply chain that American consumers and companies depend on.","impact":[{"audience":"Tech buyers and chip-dependent industries","effect":"Taiwan's TSMC makes about 90 percent of the world's most advanced chips. A drill rarely stops production, but blockade rehearsals raise insurance and shipping risk and push companies to stockpile."},{"audience":"Investors","effect":"Past drills produced brief dips in Taiwan-exposed chip stocks. A quarantine or blockade would be a far larger shock; the U.S. National Security Council has reportedly estimated a Chinese attack could cause a $1 trillion disruption."},{"audience":"U.S. trade and tariff watchers","effect":"Washington and Beijing just extended their trade truce during Xi's September visit. A big drill would test whether that truce and the planned November APEC meeting in China survive."},{"audience":"Travelers and businesses in Taiwan","effect":"Drills have briefly disrupted flight routes and shipping lanes near Taiwan. A named exercise would not by itself close the island, but it raises short-notice travel and logistics risk."},{"audience":"Defense planners and taxpayers","effect":"A $14 billion U.S. arms package for Taiwan is on hold. A drill would add pressure in Congress to approve it and to fund more U.S. forces in the Pacific."}],"versions":[{"version":1,"published":"2026-09-26T07:36:07Z","cutoff":"2026-09-26","probability":0.4,"range":[0.28,0.55],"call":"Less likely than not, while summitry lasts","headline":"We put the chance of a large, announced PLA exercise around Taiwan by June 30, 2027 at 40 percent. Beijing held seven such drills from 2022 to 2025 but none in 2026, as Xi courts Trump through summits and a trade truce. A released U.S. arms package or a Lai speech could end the pause quickly.","lenses":{"psychology":["Xi Jinping's priority in 2026 has been to lock in gains from direct dealings with Trump: a trade truce, a delayed $14 billion U.S. arms package for Taiwan, and pressure on Washington to state that it opposes Taiwan independence. Beijing's record shows it throttles visible military pressure when summitry is paying off. PLA aircraft activity dropped to zero on May 14 and 15 during the Beijing summit and fell by roughly half in the first seven months of the year. A large drill now would put at risk the concessions he is still chasing, including the November APEC meeting China hosts.","But Beijing has also shown it will not let symbolic moves by Taipei pass without a response. Past large drills followed specific triggers: a U.S. House Speaker's visit in 2022, transits and speeches by Taiwan's leaders, Lai Ching-te's inauguration in 2024 and his characterization of China as a foreign hostile force in 2025. Lai has said Taiwan is not subordinate to the People's Republic of China, and Beijing needs to show its domestic audience that its restraint is a choice, not weakness. If Trump releases the arms package or the U.S. relationship sours, the PLA can surge at will, as its navy presence around Taiwan never fell."],"history":["The reference class is announced, multi-zone PLA exercises around Taiwan since August 2022. There were seven: August 2022, April 2023, August 2023, May 2024, October 2024, April 2025 (Strait Thunder-2025A) and December 2025 (Justice Mission-2025). That is about one every six months, and each followed a political trigger within days or weeks. Justice Mission-2025 was among the largest, with 130 aircraft and drones recorded in a single 24-hour period and rehearsals of port blockades.","The closest analogue is 2023: after the April Joint Sword drills, Beijing held off through most of a summit-heavy year and staged one more drill in August after a transit by Lai, then as vice president, before the Xi-Biden meeting in November. The pattern of restraint around summits, broken by a specific Taiwan trigger, fits today. It breaks because in 2026 the U.S. president has personally used Taiwan arms sales as a bargaining chip, which gives Beijing more reason than in 2023 to keep the pause and let Washington deliver restraint for it."],"statistics":["Base rate: seven announced drills in the 40 months from August 2022 to December 2025 is about 0.18 a month. Over the 9-month window to June 30, 2027, a Poisson model gives 1 minus e to the minus 1.6, or about 79 percent. Including 2026's nine drill-free months, the rate falls to seven in 49 months, or about 0.14 a month, which gives about 72 percent.","Adjustments: minus 22 points for the summit regime (a trade truce just extended, APEC in China in November, and a pattern in 2026 of cutting air activity around leader meetings); minus 5 points because Beijing has typically avoided large drills just before Taiwan elections, and Taiwan's local elections fall in late November; minus 5 points because Beijing is advancing its aims through coast guard presence east of Taiwan and at Kinmen, which does not resolve this question. Plus 0 net for triggers: the arms package release, Lai's October 10 speech and the May 20, 2027 inauguration anniversary are real, but each already existed in 2026 without a drill. 72 minus 32 is 40 percent."]},"betweenTheLines":[{"type":"costly","signal":"PLA aircraft entries into Taiwan's air defense zone fell to about 1,200 from January 1 to August 9, 2026, against 2,501 a year earlier, but PLA Navy sightings barely moved, from 1,647 to 1,529.","read":"Aircraft sorties are cheap to turn on and off and are the most visible signal to Washington. Ships at sea are the expensive, persistent capability for a blockade. Beijing cut the signal, not the capability, which is exactly what a pause for diplomacy looks like."},{"type":"omission","signal":"After Xi's September meeting with Trump, the White House had not released its own summary of the talks or remarks on Taiwan, while Xinhua reported Xi urged Trump to oppose Taiwan independence.","read":"Leaving Taiwan out of the U.S. readout avoids a public row but also leaves Beijing's version as the only record. That ambiguity keeps Xi invested in the diplomatic track for now, which lowers near-term drill odds."},{"type":"sequencing","signal":"Trump postponed final approval of the $14 billion Taiwan arms package after the May summit and has called arms sales a negotiating chip.","read":"The package is the single most likely trigger. Beijing has an incentive to keep quiet while it stays frozen; if it is announced after the midterms or after APEC, a named drill within weeks becomes more likely than not."},{"type":"tone","signal":"Beijing's coast guard has established a regular presence east of Taiwan and keeps a steady four incursions a month near Kinmen, according to Taiwan monitors.","read":"China is shifting pressure into law-enforcement framing that builds a quarantine precedent without the diplomatic cost of a named drill. That makes a gray-zone escalation more likely than a showpiece exercise in the near term."}],"baseRate":{"value":0.72,"label":"chance of at least one announced drill in 9 months at the 2022 to 2026 pace","n":7,"reference":"Desk computation. Seven announced multi-zone PLA exercises around Taiwan between August 2022 and December 2025, drawn from the list of Chinese military exercises around Taiwan on Wikipedia, and none from January to September 2026: 7 in 49 months, applied as a Poisson rate over 9 months.","sourceIds":["s4"]},"analogues":[{"case":"Summit-year restraint, broken by a transit","year":"2023","similarity":"Beijing limited large drills during a year of U.S.-China summitry, then staged one after a Taiwan leader's U.S. transit.","outcome":"Joint Sword in April 2023, a smaller announced drill in August 2023, then the Xi-Biden meeting in November.","breaks":"In 2023 the U.S. did not freeze arms sales to Taiwan. In 2026 the U.S. president is treating them as a bargaining chip, which gives Beijing more to lose from a drill."},{"case":"Pelosi visit drills","year":"2022","similarity":"A U.S. action Beijing saw as a provocation produced a large, multi-zone exercise within days.","outcome":"Missile launches over Taiwan and days of encirclement drills in August 2022.","breaks":"The 2022 trigger was a senior U.S. official on the island; nothing of that scale is scheduled for 2026 to 2027."},{"case":"Justice Mission-2025","year":"2025","similarity":"Beijing's most recent large drill, focused on blockading key ports.","outcome":"Two days of drills on December 29 and 30, 2025, with 130 aircraft recorded in a day and rocket artillery fire.","breaks":"It came before the 2026 summit cycle began; the diplomatic incentives have changed since."}],"scenarios":[{"name":"Détente holds, routine gray-zone pressure only","probability":0.48,"trigger":"The trade truce and summit calendar hold, the arms package stays frozen, and PLA activity stays low."},{"name":"Coast guard and law-enforcement pressure rises instead","probability":0.12,"trigger":"Beijing expands inspections or patrols east of Taiwan or around outlying islands without announcing a military exercise."},{"name":"Named drill after a trigger","probability":0.3,"trigger":"The U.S. announces the $14 billion arms package, or Lai gives a speech or transits the U.S. in a way Beijing labels provocative."},{"name":"Drill around the May 2027 anniversary or unprompted","probability":0.07,"trigger":"Beijing marks Lai's May 20 inauguration anniversary or signals displeasure after the U.S.-China relationship cools."},{"name":"Quarantine or blockade-style operation","probability":0.03,"trigger":"A serious crisis leads Beijing to declare inspections or a blockade zone around Taiwan."}],"signposts":[{"signal":"The U.S. formally notifies Congress of the $14 billion Taiwan arms package","direction":"up","effect":"+20 points"},{"signal":"Trump attends APEC in China and the trade truce is extended again","direction":"down","effect":"-8 points"},{"signal":"PLA daily aircraft counts return to 2025 levels for a month","direction":"up","effect":"+10 points"},{"signal":"Beijing labels Lai's October 10 National Day speech a provocation and vows countermeasures","direction":"up","effect":"+8 points"},{"signal":"A U.S.-China leaders' statement on Taiwan closer to Beijing's wording","direction":"down","effect":"-6 points"}],"market":null,"stats":[{"value":"7.5","label":"average daily PLA sorties around Taiwan in the first half of 2026","sourceId":"s1"},{"value":"1,200 vs 2,501","label":"PLA aircraft in Taiwan's air defense zone, Jan 1 to Aug 9, 2026 vs 2025","sourceId":"s2"},{"value":"1,529","label":"PLA Navy sightings near Taiwan in 2026's first seven months, down only from 1,647","sourceId":"s3"},{"value":"130","label":"PLA aircraft and drones recorded in one day of Justice Mission-2025","sourceId":"s4"},{"value":"$14 billion","label":"U.S. arms package for Taiwan still unannounced","sourceId":"s5"},{"value":"90%","label":"share of the most advanced chips made by Taiwan's TSMC","sourceId":"s6"}],"sources":[{"id":"s1","title":"China Moves to Lock in a New Edge on Taiwan Before the Next Trump-Xi Summit","publisher":"The Diplomat","url":"https://thediplomat.com/2026/07/china-moves-to-lock-in-a-new-edge-on-taiwan-before-the-next-trump-xi-summit/","published":"2026-07-29","quote":"By comparison, the daily average for the first half of 2026 was 7.5 sorties."},{"id":"s2","title":"PLA Air Activity Around Taiwan Halved in 2026, but Its Warships Never Left","publisher":"GlobalMilitary.net","url":"https://www.globalmilitary.net/news/pla-air-activity-around-taiwan-halved-in-2026/","published":"2026-08-10","quote":"Taiwan's ministry of national defense reported 1,200 PLA aircraft inside the zone, against 2,501 over the same window of 2025"},{"id":"s3","title":"PLA Air Activity Around Taiwan Halved in 2026, but Its Warships Never Left","publisher":"GlobalMilitary.net","url":"https://www.globalmilitary.net/news/pla-air-activity-around-taiwan-halved-in-2026/","published":"2026-08-10","quote":"PLA Navy vessels reported around Taiwan fell only from 1,647 to 1,529 sightings across the same seven months"},{"id":"s4","title":"Justice Mission-2025","publisher":"Wikipedia","url":"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Justice_Mission-2025","published":"2026-09-26","quote":"it had confirmed activity by 130 Chinese military fighters, drones and other aircraft around Taiwan"},{"id":"s5","title":"China Moves to Lock in a New Edge on Taiwan Before the Next Trump-Xi Summit","publisher":"The Diplomat","url":"https://thediplomat.com/2026/07/china-moves-to-lock-in-a-new-edge-on-taiwan-before-the-next-trump-xi-summit/","published":"2026-07-29","quote":"The unannounced $14 billion arms sale package, meanwhile, has become a bargaining chip for Trump in maintaining relations with China."},{"id":"s6","title":"Confrontation Over Taiwan, Global Conflict Tracker","publisher":"Council on Foreign Relations","url":"https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/confrontation-over-taiwan","published":"2026-08-27","quote":"Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company produces 65 percent of the world’s semiconductors and 90 percent of the most advanced chips."},{"id":"s7","title":"Trump-Xi summit: Four key takeaways from the Washington, DC, meeting","publisher":"Al Jazeera","url":"https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/9/24/trump-xi-summit-four-key-takeaways-from-the-washington-dc-meeting","published":"2026-09-24","quote":"The White House has yet to release its own summary of the talks and remarks on Taiwan."},{"id":"s8","title":"China & Taiwan Update, September 1, 2026","publisher":"American Enterprise Institute","url":"https://www.aei.org/commentary/china-taiwan-update-september-1-2026/","published":"2026-09-01","quote":"The PRC has normalized a pattern of four CCG incursions into the waters around Kinmen per month since February 2024."}],"hash":"7a66394076af932c24d81209175327eb6e646413acf3e742f399a2780ff05794"}],"faqs":[{"question":"Will China invade Taiwan?","answer":"An invasion in the next year looks very unlikely; Beijing's 2026 behavior points to pressure and bargaining, not war. The more realistic question is whether China stages another large military exercise around Taiwan. As of September 26, 2026, we put that at 40 percent by June 30, 2027, down from the 2022 to 2025 pace because Xi is prioritizing summits and a trade truce with Trump."},{"question":"Will China blockade Taiwan?","answer":"A real blockade remains unlikely in the near term; we give a blockade or quarantine-style operation about 3 percent by June 30, 2027. China rehearsed blockading key ports in its December 2025 Justice Mission drills and keeps its navy active around Taiwan, but it has cut air activity in 2026 while it negotiates with Washington."},{"question":"Why has China reduced military flights near Taiwan in 2026?","answer":"The most likely reason is diplomacy with the United States. PLA aircraft entries into Taiwan's air defense zone roughly halved in the first seven months of 2026, and flights stopped entirely during the May Trump-Xi summit in Beijing. Naval activity barely changed, which suggests Beijing paused a visible signal rather than giving up any capability."},{"question":"When is the next Chinese military drill around Taiwan?","answer":"No date is announced. Past large drills came within days or weeks of a trigger, such as a Taiwanese leader's speech or U.S. transit, or a U.S. move Beijing opposed. The main triggers to watch are the delayed $14 billion U.S. arms package, Lai Ching-te's October 10 speech and the May 20, 2027 anniversary of his inauguration."}],"resolved":null,"url":"https://www.thepoliticalgroup.com/forecasts/will-china-hold-a-major-military-drill-around-taiwan-by-june-30-2027"},{"slug":"will-russia-and-ukraine-agree-a-ceasefire-by-june-30-2027","question":"Will a general Russia-Ukraine ceasefire take effect by June 30, 2027?","short":"Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by mid-2027","pillar":"relations","topics":["russia-ukraine","europe","us-allies"],"created":"2026-09-26","resolution":{"criteria":"Resolves YES if, on or before June 30, 2027, a ceasefire or armistice publicly accepted by both the Russian and Ukrainian governments takes effect that covers the entire front line and long-range air, missile and drone strikes, and it remains in force (not declared over by either government, with no resumption of large-scale offensive operations) for at least 10 consecutive days. The 10 days may run past June 30, 2027. Partial deals (energy-only, air-only, sea-only, humanitarian or holiday truces of fixed short length) do not count. Resolves NO otherwise.","deadline":"2027-06-30","judgedBy":"Official statements by the Russian and Ukrainian governments as reported by Reuters, AP or the BBC"},"whyItMatters":"A real ceasefire would reset European security, U.S. aid budgets, grain and energy markets and the risk of the war spilling into NATO territory.","impact":[{"audience":"U.S. taxpayers and defense budgets","effect":"A ceasefire would shift the debate from wartime aid to funding a monitoring or security-guarantee mission. No ceasefire keeps weapons production and European resupply at wartime pace."},{"audience":"Drivers and energy buyers","effect":"Ukraine keeps striking Russian refineries and Russia keeps striking Ukrainian power plants. A ceasefire would ease one source of pressure on diesel and fuel markets already squeezed by the Iran war, where U.S. regular gasoline averaged $4.48 a gallon on September 24, 2026."},{"audience":"Investors","effect":"A durable truce would likely lift European equities and the euro and lower defense-stock premiums. Continued war keeps a risk premium in European gas and grain prices."},{"audience":"Farmers and food buyers","effect":"Black Sea shipping and Ukrainian grain exports would face less risk under a ceasefire, which matters for global wheat and corn prices that U.S. farmers compete against."},{"audience":"Americans traveling to Europe","effect":"Drone and missile incursions into Poland, Romania and the Baltics would likely fall under a ceasefire. Without one, airport closures from drone sightings stay a live travel risk in eastern Europe."}],"versions":[{"version":1,"published":"2026-09-26T07:36:07Z","cutoff":"2026-09-26","probability":0.17,"range":[0.1,0.26],"call":"Unlikely: talks restart, but Moscow still says no","headline":"We put the chance of a general Russia-Ukraine ceasefire taking effect by June 30, 2027 at 17 percent. Washington is reviving trilateral talks, but the Kremlin has rejected even a limited energy ceasefire and still demands Ukrainian withdrawal from Donbas. Short truces in 2026 lasted three days or less.","lenses":{"psychology":["Vladimir Putin's public record is to keep every proposal \"on the table\" while refusing the one concession that would stop the shooting before his territorial demands are met. When U.S. envoys asked him in early September to stop striking Kyiv, he did so for a few days and said explicitly that Moscow had not agreed to anything wider. That pattern, granting small symbolic pauses to keep Washington engaged while protecting the core war aim, has held since the first U.S.-brokered talks in 2025. A leader who has told his public that Donetsk will be taken cannot easily accept a line that leaves most of it in Ukrainian hands, especially after the September 18 to 20 Duma elections were staged as a referendum on the war.","Volodymyr Zelensky's constraint runs the other way: he cannot sign away unoccupied territory or accept a freeze without security guarantees, because his domestic audience and the army would read it as defeat. He has therefore leaned into offering partial deals (energy, air, grain) that Kyiv can accept at low cost and that shift blame to Moscow when refused. Donald Trump wants a deal but his administration's attention and munitions are absorbed by the Iran war, and his inclination to reward whichever side appears more flexible gives Moscow an incentive to talk slowly rather than settle."],"history":["The reference class is high-intensity interstate wars that have already run more than four years. CSIS, drawing on Uppsala Conflict Data Program data, finds that only about 30 percent of wars between states end in outright victory, and that compromise outcomes (lower activity, a ceasefire or a peace agreement) are the most common endings. So the long-run odds favor some kind of freeze eventually. The hard part is timing: wars in this class usually end only after both sides conclude the battlefield will not improve, and they tend to grind for years after that realization begins.","The closest analogue is the 1953 Korean armistice: armistice talks opened in July 1951, fighting continued for two more years along a largely static line, and the deal came only after a leadership change in Moscow and a new U.S. president raised the cost of continuing. The comparison breaks in two places. Neither Moscow nor Kyiv faces a leadership transition on the horizon, and in Korea the negotiating parties were the combatants themselves, while here the chief mediator is also absorbed in a separate war with Iran."],"statistics":["Base rate: we blend two views. The outside view, our desk assumption for long high-intensity interstate wars, is a 15 to 20 percent yearly chance of a general ceasefire, or about 13 percent over the 9 months to June 30, 2027. The inside view uses this war's own record: roughly 20 months of active U.S. mediation since early 2025 with zero general ceasefires; Laplace's rule gives about a 4.5 percent monthly chance, or about 34 percent over 9 months. Averaging the two gives a starting point near 24 percent.","Adjustments: minus 5 points because senior Kremlin officials rejected even the limited energy ceasefire in the week of September 23 and Moscow still demands Donbas and demilitarization; minus 3 points because U.S. diplomatic bandwidth and air-defense stocks are tied up in the Iran war; plus 1 point because ISW assesses Russia's advance is too slow to take Donetsk before 2032, the kind of stalemate that eventually pushes parties to freeze lines. 24 minus 5 minus 3 plus 1 is 17 percent. The 10-day holding requirement is why we stay below a naive reading of the renewed talks."]},"betweenTheLines":[{"type":"costly","signal":"Russia launched 295 drones at Ukraine in a single night on September 25, killing at least seven people in Kyiv, days after the U.S. announced it was reviving trilateral talks.","read":"Mass strikes on the capital cost Moscow diplomatic goodwill it would want to protect if it were preparing to sign. Launching them in the same week as the talks announcement signals Russia intends to negotiate under fire, as it has since 2025, not to pause first."},{"type":"omission","signal":"Putin said Russia had halted strikes on Kyiv after the September 5 meeting with U.S. envoys, then stressed that Moscow never agreed to the broader three-day ceasefire Ukraine proposed.","read":"The unprompted denial matters more than the pause. Moscow is careful not to create any precedent of a general ceasefire before its territorial terms are accepted, and the Kyiv pause lapsed within weeks."},{"type":"tone","signal":"The Kremlin is presenting the September 18 to 20 State Duma results as proof of broad public support for the war, while ISW reports discontent after Ukraine's largest drone and missile strike on Moscow Oblast.","read":"State messaging is framing the war as popular and ongoing, not preparing the public for a compromise. A shift toward language about 'goals achieved' or 'security guaranteed' would be the tell that a freeze is being sold at home."},{"type":"sequencing","signal":"The U.S. proposed technical-level trilateral talks in the UAE with no date, while Trump separately invited Putin to the G20 in Miami in December.","read":"Technical talks before any leader-level commitment is the slow track. The real signpost is whether a date and venue for Russian and Ukrainian principals appears before the December G20; without that, a ceasefire before spring is unlikely."}],"baseRate":{"value":0.24,"label":"blended starting chance of a general ceasefire within 9 months","n":0,"reference":"Desk computation. Average of an outside view (desk assumption of a 15 to 20 percent yearly ceasefire chance for long high-intensity interstate wars, about 13 percent over 9 months, informed by the CSIS and UCDP war-termination findings) and an inside view (Laplace's rule applied to about 20 months of U.S. mediation with zero general ceasefires, about 34 percent over 9 months).","sourceIds":["s3","s4"]},"analogues":[{"case":"Korean War armistice","year":"1953","similarity":"Static front, talks running in parallel with heavy fighting, outside powers shaping terms, and an armistice that froze lines without a peace treaty.","outcome":"Armistice signed July 27, 1953, two years after talks began, and it has held for more than 70 years.","breaks":"The Korea deal followed Stalin's death and a new U.S. president. No comparable leadership change is due in Moscow or Kyiv before mid-2027, and the U.S. mediator is fighting a separate war."},{"case":"Minsk II ceasefire","year":"2015","similarity":"A Russia-Ukraine ceasefire negotiated by outside powers along an existing line of contact.","outcome":"Took effect in February 2015 but was violated almost immediately and never fully held; heavy fighting at Debaltseve continued after it began.","breaks":"Minsk covered a limited Donbas conflict; today's front runs across several oblasts with long-range strikes deep into both countries, which makes verification far harder."},{"case":"Iran-Iraq War ceasefire","year":"1988","similarity":"A long attritional interstate war where both sides stalled on the ground and deep strikes on cities and energy targets escalated.","outcome":"Iran accepted UN Resolution 598 after eight years once its leadership concluded it could not win; the ceasefire held.","breaks":"Iran's acceptance came after sharp battlefield reversals and an oil-market collapse. Russia today is not losing ground fast enough to force that kind of decision."}],"scenarios":[{"name":"Grinding war, talks continue without a deal","probability":0.52,"trigger":"Technical talks in the UAE produce prisoner swaps and statements but no agreement on lines; strikes continue through winter."},{"name":"Partial deals only","probability":0.23,"trigger":"An energy, air or Black Sea truce, or a short holiday truce, takes effect but falls short of a full front-line ceasefire."},{"name":"Escalation","probability":0.08,"trigger":"A major strike campaign, a breakthrough offensive or a NATO spillover incident widens the war and freezes diplomacy."},{"name":"U.S.-brokered general ceasefire on current lines","probability":0.12,"trigger":"A leader-level deal, possibly around the December G20 or in spring 2027, freezes the front with a security-guarantee package."},{"name":"Armistice forced by economic or battlefield shock","probability":0.05,"trigger":"A sharp Russian economic or military setback, or a collapse in Ukrainian manpower, pushes one side to accept a freeze quickly."}],"signposts":[{"signal":"Russia accepts an energy or air ceasefire that holds for 30 days","direction":"up","effect":"+6 points"},{"signal":"Putin and Zelensky, or their chiefs of staff, meet in person","direction":"up","effect":"+10 points"},{"signal":"The Kremlin publicly drops the demand that Ukraine withdraw from the rest of Donetsk","direction":"up","effect":"+15 points"},{"signal":"Trilateral talks slip past December with no date set","direction":"down","effect":"-5 points"},{"signal":"Russia launches a new winter offensive or a record strike wave on Ukrainian power plants","direction":"down","effect":"-4 points"}],"market":{"source":"Polymarket","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-before-2027","probability":0.13,"asOf":"2026-09-07","gapRead":"This is the last price we could verify, reported on September 7, 2026 for a ceasefire by December 31, 2026 that must hold 10 days; we could not load a live quote on September 26. Our 17 percent covers six more months to June 30, 2027, so we are roughly in line with the market's per-month pace rather than more optimistic."},"stats":[{"value":"295","label":"Russian drones launched at Ukraine in one night as talks were revived (Sept. 25)","sourceId":"s1"},{"value":"2032","label":"year Russia would finish taking Donetsk at its current pace, per ISW","sourceId":"s2"},{"value":"30%","label":"of wars between states end in outright victory for either side","sourceId":"s3"},{"value":"469","label":"violations Ukraine reported during a 32-hour Easter truce in April 2026","sourceId":"s4"},{"value":"13%","label":"Polymarket odds of a ceasefire by end of 2026 (Sept. 7)","sourceId":"s5"}],"sources":[{"id":"s1","title":"US seeks to revive Russia-Ukraine ceasefire talks as seven killed in Kyiv","publisher":"Al Jazeera","url":"https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/9/25/us-seeking-to-revive-russia-ukraine-ceasefire-talks","published":"2026-09-25","quote":"Ukraine’s air force said it shot down 267 out of 295 drones launched by Russia overnight."},{"id":"s2","title":"ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 6, 2026","publisher":"Kyiv Post (Institute for the Study of War)","url":"https://www.kyivpost.com/post/83903","published":"2026-09-07","quote":"Russian forces will not seize Donetsk Oblast until 2032 at their current rate of advance"},{"id":"s3","title":"Peace, Ceasefire, or Stalemate? How Wars End and the Road Ahead for Ukraine","publisher":"CSIS","url":"https://www.csis.org/analysis/peace-ceasefire-or-stalemate-how-wars-end-and-road-ahead-ukraine","published":"2024-11-08","quote":"Only 30 percent of wars between states end with a victory by either side."},{"id":"s4","title":"April 2026 Russo-Ukrainian truce","publisher":"Wikipedia","url":"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/April_2026_Russo-Ukrainian_truce","published":"2026-09-26","quote":"Ukraine claimed 469 violations by Russia, mostly drone attacks."},{"id":"s5","title":"Polymarket Ukraine Odds for Russia Ceasefire Slashed to 13%","publisher":"Cryptonews via Yahoo Finance","url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/crypto/articles/polymarket-ukraine-odds-russia-ceasefire-153531690.html","published":"2026-09-07","quote":"Polymarket Ukraine odds for a Russia ceasefire by December 31, 2026, have crashed to just 13%, down from 40% yesterday."},{"id":"s6","title":"ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 23, 2026","publisher":"Kyiv Post (Institute for the Study of War)","url":"https://www.kyivpost.com/post/85279","published":"2026-09-24","quote":"High-ranking Kremlin officials effectively rejected the US-Ukrainian-proposed limited energy ceasefire"},{"id":"s7","title":"Putin says Russia halts strikes on Kyiv but denies agreeing to wider ceasefire","publisher":"Ukrainska Pravda","url":"https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2026/09/05/8052085/","published":"2026-09-05","quote":"I issued the relevant order, and no strikes have been carried out on Kyiv since midnight."},{"id":"s8","title":"ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 20, 2026","publisher":"Kyiv Post (Institute for the Study of War)","url":"https://www.kyivpost.com/post/84971","published":"2026-09-21","quote":"Russia’s failure to defend against the Ukrainian strikes prompted discontent among Russians, including in the ultranationalist information space, as the State Duma elections concluded."},{"id":"s9","title":"National Average Climbs Nearly 5 Cents Since Last Week","publisher":"AAA","url":"https://newsroom.aaa.com/2026/09/national-average-climbs-nearly-5-cents-since-last-week/","published":"2026-09-24","quote":"At $4.48 per gallon, this is the highest the national average has ever been for this time of year."}],"hash":"225db5c82b48931506ad864cdcee7bfa5e803e6347de373c91b62ba580a5e568"}],"faqs":[{"question":"When will the Ukraine war end?","answer":"No one can give a date. As of September 26, 2026, we estimate a 17 percent chance that a general ceasefire takes effect by June 30, 2027. The U.S. is reviving trilateral talks, likely in the UAE, but Russia rejected even a limited energy ceasefire in September and still demands Ukraine withdraw from the rest of Donbas. Most long interstate wars end in a freeze rather than victory, but usually years after talks begin."},{"question":"Is there a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine?","answer":"No general ceasefire is in effect as of September 26, 2026. Short truces took hold in April 2026 (about 32 hours, with Ukraine reporting 469 Russian violations) and May 9 to 11, 2026. In early September Putin paused strikes on Kyiv for a few days but said Moscow never agreed to a wider truce, and Russian strikes killed at least seven people in Kyiv on September 25."},{"question":"Will Russia and Ukraine sign a peace deal in 2026?","answer":"A signed peace treaty in 2026 is very unlikely. Even a ceasefire is a long shot: a Polymarket contract for a ceasefire by December 31, 2026 traded at 13 percent on September 7. Our forecast gives 17 percent for a ceasefire by June 30, 2027. A full peace treaty settling borders would take much longer, as the 1953 Korean armistice, which never became a treaty, shows."},{"question":"What does Russia want in Ukraine peace talks?","answer":"Publicly, Moscow demands that Ukraine cede the territory Russia occupies, withdraw from the parts of Donetsk it still holds, demilitarize and drop its NATO ambitions. Ukraine insists any deal preserve its sovereignty and include security guarantees. That gap on territory is the main reason we rate a general ceasefire before mid-2027 as unlikely, at 17 percent."}],"resolved":null,"url":"https://www.thepoliticalgroup.com/forecasts/will-russia-and-ukraine-agree-a-ceasefire-by-june-30-2027"},{"slug":"will-lula-win-brazil-presidential-election-2026","question":"Will Lula win Brazil's 2026 presidential election?","short":"Lula wins Brazil 2026","pillar":"international","topics":["elections-abroad","americas"],"created":"2026-09-26","resolution":{"criteria":"Resolves YES if Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva is declared the winner of Brazil's 2026 presidential election by the Superior Electoral Court (TSE), either by taking more than 50 percent of valid votes in the first round on October 4, 2026 or by winning the runoff on October 25, 2026. Resolves NO if any other candidate is declared the winner, or if Lula is not on the ballot for the deciding round.","deadline":"2026-10-25","judgedBy":"Official results published by Brazil's Superior Electoral Court (TSE), confirmed by wire reports"},"whyItMatters":"The winner sets Brazil's stance toward Washington and Beijing, its climate and Amazon policy, and the tone of a trade relationship that American exporters, farmers and investors in Brazilian markets feel directly.","impact":[{"audience":"U.S. exporters and importers","effect":"A Lula win likely continues a cool, transactional relationship with the Trump White House and closer ties to China and the BRICS bloc. A Flavio Bolsonaro win would likely bring a warmer political line to Washington and more room to settle tariff disputes."},{"audience":"Investors in Brazilian assets","effect":"Both campaigns are promising large household debt relief programs, so fiscal risk is on the table either way. Expect volatility in the real and in Brazilian stocks around October 4 and October 25 because the polls show a statistical tie."},{"audience":"U.S. farmers","effect":"Brazil is the main competitor to American soybean and beef exports, especially in China. Whoever wins shapes how aggressively Brazil courts Chinese buyers that U.S. growers are trying to win back."},{"audience":"Travelers and expats","effect":"A close result, as in 2022, raises the risk of contested-outcome protests in the weeks after the runoff. The 2022 runoff was decided by less than two points."},{"audience":"Climate and Amazon policy watchers","effect":"Lula's government has made deforestation enforcement a signature policy; a change of government would likely shift priorities toward agribusiness expansion."}],"versions":[{"version":1,"published":"2026-09-26T07:36:07Z","cutoff":"2026-09-26","probability":0.46,"range":[0.36,0.56],"call":"A coin flip, slight edge to Flavio Bolsonaro","headline":"We give Lula a 46 percent chance of winning Brazil's presidency as of September 26, 2026. Runoff polls show a statistical tie with Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, and the biggest reason we sit just under even is history: in 2022 the final polls overstated Lula's runoff margin by about two points while his government's approval is now underwater.","lenses":{"psychology":["Lula is 80 and seeking a fourth term, and his campaign is behaving like an incumbent that knows approval alone will not carry him: the government is rolling out a large household debt buyback before the vote. That is a costly, visible bet on pocketbook relief, the lever that has historically moved Brazil's poorest voters, where Bolsa Familia recipients back Lula by roughly 56 to 30 in Quaest's data.","Flavio Bolsonaro needs to hold his father's base while persuading voters who dislike both men. His answer is to match Lula's debt relief with a promise of his own, which signals that his campaign reads the same pocketbook electorate. With 55 percent saying they would never vote for Lula and 56 percent saying the same of Flavio, both camps are fighting over a thin slice of persuadable voters, and turnout of each base, not conversion, is likely to decide it."],"history":["Reference class: incumbent Brazilian presidents seeking a consecutive second term since the 1997 amendment allowed it. Fernando Henrique Cardoso (1998), Lula (2006) and Dilma Rousseff (2014) won; Jair Bolsonaro (2022) lost. That is 3 of 4, a strong incumbent prior, but Dilma won in 2014 by barely three points and Bolsonaro lost in 2022 by under two, so the class is dominated by close runoffs.","The closest analogue is 2022 itself, with the roles reversed: an incumbent with a loyal but capped base against a challenger who unites everyone who wants a change. It breaks in two places. First, Lula today has approval in the low to mid 40s, weaker than a typical winning incumbent. Second, Flavio Bolsonaro is not the polarizing figure his father was on the ballot, and Datafolha found the other conservative names test no better against Lula, which suggests the right's vote is anchored to the anti-Lula position rather than to one person."],"statistics":["Start from the incumbent base rate of 3 in 4, about 0.75. Polls carry far more information 8 days out, so we weight them about 90 percent. The last week of runoff polls: Datafolha Lula +2, AtlasIntel Lula +0.3, BTG/Nexus Lula +1, Alfa tied, Quaest Flavio +1, Palver Flavio +3, Futura Flavio +5.7. The four most established houses average about Lula +0.6; all seven average about Flavio +0.9. We use roughly Lula +0.3.","Adjustment for known bias: Quaest's final 2022 runoff poll had Lula ahead 52 to 48 and he won 50.9 to 49.1, an overstatement of about 2.2 points on the margin, and first-round polls that year missed the right by more. We shift the margin about 1 point toward Flavio, to roughly Flavio +0.7. With a historical runoff error of about 4 points on the margin, that converts to about 0.44 for Lula. Blending 0.9 times 0.44 plus 0.1 times 0.75 gives about 0.47; a small deduction for approval running 44 to 50 against him lands us at 0.46. The regulated Kalshi market has Lula at 0.44, close to our number."]},"betweenTheLines":[{"type":"costly","signal":"In the final weeks the government launched a debt buyback program for families, and Flavio Bolsonaro answered with a much larger debt fund proposal of his own.","read":"Both camps are spending political capital on the same pocketbook voter. When a challenger copies the incumbent's signature move instead of attacking it, he is conceding the issue matters and betting on trust, not on a different agenda. That keeps the race a referendum on who delivers relief."},{"type":"omission","signal":"Datafolha tested the other conservative names as if they were the nominee and none beat Flavio's numbers against Lula.","read":"This quietly ended the Liberal Party's argument about swapping candidates. The anti-Lula vote is a fixed bloc near 45 percent, so the runoff hinges on the few points of voters who reject both men."},{"type":"tone","signal":"Quaest's segment data shows evangelicals moving from 51 to 58 percent for Flavio while women moved toward Lula, 41 to 44.","read":"Each base is hardening at the same time. That points to a turnout election, where the 2022 pattern of pollsters under-sampling right-leaning voters matters more than late persuasion."},{"type":"cheap","signal":"About 4 percent of voters in Datafolha's spontaneous question still name the imprisoned Jair Bolsonaro, who is not on the ballot.","read":"That is a reservoir Flavio can almost certainly collect by the runoff. It is one reason the markets lean his way even when topline polls show Lula narrowly ahead."}],"baseRate":{"value":0.75,"label":"of Brazilian presidents seeking a consecutive second term since 1997 won it (3 of 4)","n":4,"reference":"Computed by TPG from the four incumbent re-election bids since the 1997 amendment: 1998, 2006 and 2014 won, 2022 lost. Wikipedia's 2022 election article confirms Bolsonaro was the first incumbent to lose since the amendment.","sourceIds":["s5"]},"analogues":[{"case":"Brazil 2022 runoff, Lula vs Jair Bolsonaro","year":"2022","similarity":"A polarized two-camp runoff with high rejection of both candidates and a statistical tie late in the race.","outcome":"The challenger, Lula, won 50.9 to 49.1, narrower than final polls suggested.","breaks":"In 2022 the incumbent was the right-wing candidate; now the incumbent is Lula, so the direction of poll error and incumbency advantage no longer point the same way."},{"case":"Brazil 2014 runoff, Dilma Rousseff vs Aecio Neves","year":"2014","similarity":"A Workers' Party incumbent with a weakening economy and approval near the midforties facing a united opposition.","outcome":"Rousseff won re-election by about three points.","breaks":"Rousseff had a larger Northeast turnout machine and the opposition candidate lacked a mass personal movement like Bolsonarismo."}],"scenarios":[{"name":"Lula wins outright on October 4","probability":0.03,"trigger":"Lula clears 50 percent of valid votes as minor candidates collapse and blank votes rise; markets price this at under 10 percent for any candidate."},{"name":"Lula wins the October 25 runoff","probability":0.43,"trigger":"Debt relief and Northeast turnout hold, the polls this time are unbiased, and Lula converts his first-round lead."},{"name":"Flavio Bolsonaro wins the runoff","probability":0.51,"trigger":"He consolidates the remaining conservative vote and 2022-style poll error toward the right repeats."},{"name":"Another outcome","probability":0.03,"trigger":"Flavio wins outright in round one, a third candidate surges into the runoff, or a legal or health event changes the ballot."}],"signposts":[{"signal":"Lula's first-round share on October 4 lands at 47 percent or higher with a lead of 5 points or more","direction":"up","effect":"+10 to +15 points"},{"signal":"First-round result shows the right outperforming final polls by 3 points or more, as in 2022","direction":"down","effect":"-10 points"},{"signal":"Third-place candidates such as Augusto Cury or Ronaldo Caiado endorse Flavio for the runoff","direction":"down","effect":"-3 to -5 points"},{"signal":"Government approval in Quaest or Datafolha climbs back above disapproval","direction":"up","effect":"+5 points"}],"market":{"source":"Kalshi","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxbrpres","probability":0.44,"asOf":"2026-09-26","gapRead":"We are 2 points above the market, a meaningful agreement. Traders appear to price in a repeat of the 2022 polling miss; we do too, but only half of it, because pollsters adjusted their methods after 2022 and AtlasIntel, the most accurate house that year, now shows a dead heat rather than a Flavio lead."},"stats":[{"value":"47% to 45%","label":"Lula's lead over Flavio Bolsonaro in Datafolha's runoff test, inside the 2-point margin of error","sourceId":"s1"},{"value":"42% to 41%","label":"Flavio Bolsonaro's edge over Lula in Quaest's runoff test the same week","sourceId":"s7"},{"value":"43%","label":"Lula government approval in September, down from 48 percent in July (Quaest)","sourceId":"s3"},{"value":"52 to 48","label":"Quaest's final 2022 runoff poll for Lula; he actually won 50.9 to 49.1","sourceId":"s2"},{"value":"55%","label":"of voters say they would never vote for Lula, versus 56 percent for Flavio","sourceId":"s4"}],"sources":[{"id":"s1","title":"Brazil's Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro still essentially tied in new poll","publisher":"Al Jazeera and Reuters","url":"https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/9/25/brazils-lula-and-flavio-bolsonaro-still-essentially-tied-in-new-poll","published":"2026-09-25","quote":"Lula would receive 47 percent of the vote compared with 45 percent for Bolsonaro in a simulated run-off."},{"id":"s2","title":"Quaest Poll: Flavio Bolsonaro Edges Lula 42 to 41 in Runoff as Gap Halves","publisher":"The Rio Times","url":"https://www.riotimesonline.com/brazil-election-quaest-poll-flavio-42-lula-41-runoff-september-2026/","published":"2026-09-22","quote":"had Lula on 52 and Jair Bolsonaro on 48. The count came in at 50.9 to 49.1."},{"id":"s3","title":"Quaest Poll: Flavio Bolsonaro Edges Lula 42 to 41 in Runoff as Gap Halves","publisher":"The Rio Times","url":"https://www.riotimesonline.com/brazil-election-quaest-poll-flavio-42-lula-41-runoff-september-2026/","published":"2026-09-22","quote":"Quaest recorded approval falling from 48 percent in July to 43 percent in September, while disapproval climbed from 47 to 50."},{"id":"s4","title":"Quaest Poll: Flavio Bolsonaro Edges Lula 42 to 41 in Runoff as Gap Halves","publisher":"The Rio Times","url":"https://www.riotimesonline.com/brazil-election-quaest-poll-flavio-42-lula-41-runoff-september-2026/","published":"2026-09-22","quote":"Some 55 percent would never vote for Lula, and 56 percent say the same of"},{"id":"s5","title":"2022 Brazilian general election","publisher":"Wikipedia","url":"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Brazilian_general_election","published":"2026-09-26","quote":"Bolsonaro became the first incumbent president to lose a bid for a second term since a 1997 constitutional amendment allowing consecutive re-election"},{"id":"s6","title":"Datafolha Poll Shows Lula Leading Flavio Bolsonaro 40 to 36 as the Runoff Stays a Two-Point Tie","publisher":"The Rio Times","url":"https://www.riotimesonline.com/datafolha-poll-lula-40-flavio-36-runoff-tie-september-24-2026/","published":"2026-09-25","quote":"Lula leads 36 percent to 27 percent, and 4 percent still name the imprisoned Jair Bolsonaro, who is not on the ballot."},{"id":"s7","title":"Brazil's Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro still essentially tied in new poll","publisher":"Al Jazeera and Reuters","url":"https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/9/25/brazils-lula-and-flavio-bolsonaro-still-essentially-tied-in-new-poll","published":"2026-09-25","quote":"A Quaest poll released on Monday showed Bolsonaro with 42 percent of voter support in a potential run-off, versus 41 percent for Lula."}],"hash":"c47f8616b161c2e0c1fea5ccf0510c9f270c235461441533027606f11c1ee3ea"}],"faqs":[{"question":"Who will win the Brazil election 2026?","answer":"As of September 26, 2026, the race between President Lula and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro is a statistical tie in runoff polls. TPG gives Lula a 46 percent chance and Flavio Bolsonaro about 51 percent, with a small chance of another outcome. The slight lean to Flavio reflects the 2022 pattern, when final polls overstated Lula's runoff margin by about two points."},{"question":"When is the Brazil election 2026?","answer":"The first round is Sunday, October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins more than half of the valid votes, the top two candidates meet in a runoff on Sunday, October 25, 2026. Brazilians also elect 54 of 81 senators and all 513 federal deputies on October 4. Polls show no candidate near 50 percent, so a runoff is very likely."},{"question":"What do the latest Brazil election polls say?","answer":"In the week to September 25, 2026, Datafolha had Lula ahead 47 to 45 in a runoff, AtlasIntel had him ahead 47.7 to 47.4, and Quaest had Flavio Bolsonaro ahead 42 to 41. Every gap is inside the margin of error. In the first round Lula leads Datafolha 40 to 36, so a runoff is expected."},{"question":"Is Jair Bolsonaro running in 2026?","answer":"No. Former president Jair Bolsonaro is barred from running and is in prison after his conviction for attempting to overturn his 2022 defeat. His eldest son, Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, is the Liberal Party's candidate and the main challenger to President Lula."}],"resolved":null,"url":"https://www.thepoliticalgroup.com/forecasts/will-lula-win-brazil-presidential-election-2026"},{"kind":"field","slug":"who-will-be-the-next-un-secretary-general","question":"Who will be the next UN Secretary-General?","short":"Next UN Secretary-General","pillar":"international","topics":["americas","us-allies"],"created":"2026-09-26","resolution":{"criteria":"Resolves to the person the UN General Assembly appoints, on the recommendation of the Security Council, as Secretary-General for the term beginning January 1, 2027, succeeding Antonio Guterres. If no appointment is made by December 31, 2026, the question stays open and resolves to whoever is eventually appointed to succeed Guterres.","deadline":"2026-12-31","judgedBy":"UN General Assembly appointment resolution and UN press release, confirmed by wire reports"},"whyItMatters":"The next Secretary-General will run the UN through a period of deep U.S. funding cuts and reform demands, shaping how the organization handles wars, humanitarian aid, nuclear inspections and trade disputes that touch American interests.","impact":[{"audience":"U.S. taxpayers and Congress","effect":"Washington has cut UN funding and says it wants a reform-focused manager. A Secretary-General the Trump administration backs, such as a candidate it does not veto, is more likely to deliver budget and staffing cuts that Congress then weighs against future U.S. contributions."},{"audience":"Americans following Middle East and Ukraine diplomacy","effect":"The Secretary-General sets the tone for UN mediation and humanitarian operations. A Grynspan or Rodrigues Birkett term would likely emphasize development and multilateral trade; a Grossi term would bring a nuclear-inspection specialist to the top job at a time of Iran tensions."},{"audience":"U.S. exporters and businesses","effect":"Grynspan has led the UN's trade and development body since 2021, so her selection would put a trade economist in charge as tariff disputes reshape global commerce. Other candidates would put less emphasis on trade policy."},{"audience":"Latin American diaspora communities in the U.S.","effect":"Most of the leading candidates come from Latin America and the Caribbean. The region has held the post only once, from 1982 to 1991, so a win would be a significant symbolic moment for the hemisphere."}],"versions":[{"version":1,"published":"2026-09-26T08:10:07Z","cutoff":"2026-09-26","probability":0.45,"range":[0.33,0.57],"call":"Grynspan leads, but no one has it locked","headline":"As of September 26, 2026, Costa Rica's Rebeca Grynspan is the most likely next UN Secretary-General at 45 percent. She topped the Security Council's third straw poll with nine encourage votes, the minimum needed, but five members discouraged her and diplomats suspect two of those were veto holders China and Russia.","lenses":{"psychology":["The deciders are the five veto holders, and each needs something different. The United States has said publicly it wants a practical, reform-focused manager who will streamline the organization, which rewards candidates who look like administrators rather than advocates. China and Russia, by past behavior in these selections, protect against anyone they read as too close to Western human rights agendas. Michelle Bachelet's exit fits that pattern: the United States was the only Council member that never met her, and she collapsed to one encourage vote before withdrawing on September 19.","Grynspan's strategy is the low-audience-cost one: an economist running a technical UN agency, with no record of public fights with any permanent member. That makes her acceptable to many and exciting to few, which is exactly the profile that has survived vetoes before. Carolyn Rodrigues Birkett, Guyana's UN ambassador, runs a similar coalition-building campaign from inside the building. For the veto holders, the face-saving move is to avoid being seen blocking the obvious Latin American frontrunner unless they have a clear alternative, and so far none has named one."],"history":["Reference class: contested Secretary-General selections since 1981. The early leader in Council voting won in 1991 (Boutros-Ghali, who co-led the straw poll), 2006 (Ban Ki-moon led every poll) and 2016 (Guterres led every round). The early leader lost in 1981, when the United States blocked Salim Ahmed Salim through 16 rounds, and in 1996, when Boutros-Ghali had 14 of 15 votes and was vetoed by Washington alone. That is 3 of 5.","The closest analogue is 1981, the only previous time Latin America won the job. The Council deadlocked, the leaders were vetoed, and a dark horse, Javier Perez de Cuellar, emerged as the compromise. It breaks in one important way: in 1981 the frontrunners were blocked by named superpower objections, while today the veto holders have not yet voted on colour-coded ballots, so nobody knows whether Grynspan's five discourages include a veto. The 2016 comparison cuts against her: Guterres never fell below 11 encourage votes, while Grynspan has shown 10, then 7, then 9."],"statistics":["Start from the base rate: the early straw-poll leader has won 3 of the last 5 contested selections, about 0.60. Adjust down 10 points because Grynspan's lead is thin, with 9 encourages against Guterres's floor of 11 and Ban's unbroken lead, and she lost first place to Rodrigues Birkett in the August round. Adjust down a further 8 points for the reported possibility that two of her five discourages came from China and Russia, since a single veto ends a candidacy.","Adjust up 3 points for regional rotation, which strongly favours a Latin American and Caribbean candidate this cycle, and for Bachelet's withdrawal, which frees votes from Council members that had backed a Latin American woman. That lands at about 0.45. The regulated Kalshi market has Grynspan at 0.54; we are lower because the colour-coded ballots that reveal vetoes have not happened yet, and history shows those ballots are where early leaders fall."]},"betweenTheLines":[{"type":"costly","signal":"Michelle Bachelet, a two-time president of Chile backed by Brazil and Mexico, withdrew the day after the third straw poll, having fallen from six encourage votes in July to one.","read":"Leaving is costly for a candidate of her stature, and it tells us Council members were not treating this as an open conversation. Her backers now have votes to redistribute, and a Latin American candidate is the natural beneficiary."},{"type":"omission","signal":"None of the five permanent members has publicly endorsed a candidate or announced a veto, and the Council has not yet moved to colour-coded ballots.","read":"The veto holders are keeping their options open. Silence at this stage lets them avoid the audience cost of openly blocking a woman from the Global South, but it also means the current rankings may not survive the first ballot that separates their votes."},{"type":"tone","signal":"The U.S. State Department said it wants a practical, driven and reform-focused candidate who will restore competent management and streamline the organisation significantly.","read":"That language rewards managers over political figures. It fits an economist who runs a UN agency, or an ambassador who knows the building, better than a former head of state, and it is one reason Bachelet's candidacy never gained Washington's engagement."},{"type":"sequencing","signal":"Diplomats and analysts say the next straw poll is likely right after the General Assembly's High-Level Week ends on September 28.","read":"Leaders of the 193 member states are in New York this week, which is the best moment to lobby capitals and to float late entrants. If a new name appears before the fourth poll, it signals that some veto holders want an alternative to the current leaders."}],"baseRate":{"value":0.6,"label":"of contested Secretary-General selections since 1981 (3 of 5) were won by the early leader in Council voting","n":5,"reference":"Computed by TPG from the 1981, 1991, 1996, 2006 and 2016 selections as documented on Wikipedia: early leaders won in 1991, 2006 and 2016 and were vetoed in 1981 and 1996.","sourceIds":["s10","s11","s12","s13"]},"analogues":[{"case":"1981 selection of Javier Perez de Cuellar","year":"1981","similarity":"The last time the post went to Latin America, after the leading candidates were blocked by veto holders.","outcome":"After 16 deadlocked rounds, the Council turned to a dark horse who had not campaigned.","breaks":"In 1981 the vetoes were open and repeated; in 2026 no permanent member has shown its hand, so a deadlock is possible but not yet visible."},{"case":"2016 selection of Antonio Guterres","year":"2016","similarity":"A crowded, public field with candidate debates, straw polls and pressure for a woman and a particular region.","outcome":"Guterres led every round and was appointed by acclamation, even though the region favoured that year was Eastern Europe, not his own.","breaks":"Guterres never dropped below 11 encourage votes; Grynspan's support has swung from 10 to 7 to 9, which is a much weaker lead."}],"scenarios":[{"name":"Grynspan clears the colour-coded rounds with no veto","probability":0.45,"trigger":"China and Russia shift from discourage to no opinion once colour-coded ballots begin, and the U.S. accepts her management pitch."},{"name":"Rodrigues Birkett overtakes Grynspan","probability":0.22,"trigger":"A permanent member discourages Grynspan on a colour-coded ballot while Rodrigues Birkett, who topped the August poll, draws no P5 opposition."},{"name":"Another declared candidate breaks through","probability":0.19,"trigger":"Grossi, Espinosa, Sall or Otunnu becomes the compromise after the two leaders are blocked."},{"name":"Deadlock produces a late entrant","probability":0.14,"trigger":"Vetoes block the leaders and the Council asks for new names, as it did in 1981 and 1996."}],"signposts":[{"signal":"The first colour-coded straw poll shows Grynspan with no discourage from a permanent member","direction":"up","effect":"+20 points"},{"signal":"A permanent member's discourage vote appears against Grynspan on a colour-coded ballot","direction":"down","effect":"-25 points"},{"signal":"A new candidate is formally nominated after High-Level Week","direction":"down","effect":"-5 to -10 points"},{"signal":"Guyana or Costa Rica loses a major regional backer, or Bachelet's former sponsors endorse one of the leaders","direction":"up","effect":"+3 to +5 points for the endorsed candidate"}],"market":{"source":"Kalshi","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxunsec","probability":0.54,"asOf":"2026-09-26","gapRead":"We are 9 points below the market. Traders price Grynspan's return to first place; we give more weight to the unrevealed P5 votes, because in 1981 and 1996 the leader in open voting was stopped by a single veto once the permanent members' ballots mattered."},"field":[{"name":"Rebeca Grynspan","party":null,"role":"Secretary-General of UNCTAD, former Vice President of Costa Rica","probability":0.45,"experienceYears":20,"record":[{"label":"Third straw poll, Sept. 18","value":"9 encourage, 5 discourage","sourceId":"s1"},{"label":"First straw poll, July 30","value":"10 encourage, first place","sourceId":"s3"},{"label":"Prior offices","value":"Vice President of Costa Rica 1994 to 1998; head of Ibero-American General Secretariat 2014 to 2021","sourceId":"s14"}],"case":"She has led two of three straw polls, reached the nine-vote threshold, and fits both the Latin American rotation and the U.S. demand for a management-minded reformer.","risk":"Diplomats suspect China and Russia were among her five discourage votes, and one veto on a colour-coded ballot would end her bid."},{"name":"Carolyn Rodrigues Birkett","party":null,"role":"Guyana's Ambassador to the UN, former Foreign Minister of Guyana","probability":0.22,"experienceYears":20,"record":[{"label":"Second straw poll, Aug. 21","value":"First place, 8 encourage, 3 discourage","sourceId":"s2"},{"label":"First straw poll, July 30","value":"9 encourage","sourceId":"s3"},{"label":"Prior offices","value":"Foreign Minister of Guyana 2008 to 2015; FAO director 2017 to 2020","sourceId":"s15"}],"case":"She has been within one vote of the lead in every round and topped the August poll, making her the natural fallback if Grynspan is vetoed.","risk":"She has never led on encourage votes when Grynspan did, and a smaller-state ambassador may lack a P5 champion."},{"name":"Rafael Grossi","party":null,"role":"Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency","probability":0.09,"experienceYears":13,"record":[{"label":"Third straw poll, Sept. 18","value":"5 encourage, 8 discourage","sourceId":"s4"},{"label":"Prior offices","value":"IAEA Director General since 2019; Argentine Ambassador to Austria 2013 to 2019","sourceId":"s16"}],"case":"He has daily working relationships with all five permanent members through nuclear diplomacy, the profile of a crisis manager Washington says it wants.","risk":"He fell from 7 to 5 encourage votes between August and September, and eight discourages is a steep hole to climb out of."},{"name":"Maria Fernanda Espinosa","party":null,"role":"Former President of the UN General Assembly, former Foreign Minister of Ecuador","probability":0.04,"record":[{"label":"Third straw poll, Sept. 18","value":"3 encourage, 6 discourage, 6 no opinion","sourceId":"s5"}],"case":"Six no-opinion votes mean fewer members oppose her than oppose most rivals, which keeps her in play as a compromise.","risk":"Three encourage votes is far from the nine needed."},{"name":"Macky Sall","party":null,"role":"Former President of Senegal","probability":0.03,"experienceYears":15,"electionsWon":2,"electionsLost":0,"record":[{"label":"Third straw poll, Sept. 18","value":"5 encourage, 9 discourage","sourceId":"s6"},{"label":"Prior offices","value":"President of Senegal 2012 to 2024","sourceId":"s17"}],"case":"A former head of state with African backing could become a compromise if the Latin American rotation breaks down.","risk":"Nine discourage votes is the second-worst showing among remaining candidates, and the rotation favours Latin America."},{"name":"Olara Otunnu","party":null,"role":"Former UN Special Representative for Children and Armed Conflict","probability":0.03,"record":[{"label":"Third straw poll, Sept. 18","value":"5 encourage, 7 discourage","sourceId":"s7"}],"case":"A long UN career and a late entry give him room to grow if the leaders stall.","risk":"He is from Africa in a cycle where regional rotation strongly favours Latin America."},{"name":"Someone else","party":null,"role":"Any candidate not listed, including Ivonne A-Baki or a late entrant","probability":0.14,"record":[],"case":"Deadlocks have produced late or dark-horse winners before, as in 1981, and diplomats are openly speculating about new entrants.","risk":"Late entrants need a veto holder to sponsor them, and none has signalled that it wants to."}],"stats":[{"value":"9","label":"encourage votes for Grynspan in the Sept. 18 straw poll, the minimum needed for a formal decision","sourceId":"s1"},{"value":"10","label":"encourage votes Grynspan won in the first poll on July 30, against 9 for Rodrigues Birkett","sourceId":"s3"},{"value":"11","label":"encourage votes: the floor Antonio Guterres never fell below in 2016","sourceId":"s8"},{"value":"11","label":"discourage votes for Michelle Bachelet on Sept. 18, before she withdrew","sourceId":"s9"},{"value":"16 rounds","label":"of deadlocked voting in 1981, the last time Latin America won the job","sourceId":"s10"}],"sources":[{"id":"s1","title":"Third Straw Poll for UN Secretary-General Race Shows No Consensus","publisher":"PassBlue","url":"https://passblue.com/2026/09/18/third-straw-poll-for-un-secretary-general-race-shows-no-consensus/","published":"2026-09-18","quote":"Rebeca Grynspan of Costa Rica received the most \"encourage\" votes, or nine, according to diplomats, as the results are not made public."},{"id":"s2","title":"Third Straw Poll for UN Secretary-General Race Shows No Consensus","publisher":"PassBlue","url":"https://passblue.com/2026/09/18/third-straw-poll-for-un-secretary-general-race-shows-no-consensus/","published":"2026-09-18","quote":"topped the most-previous straw poll, on Aug. 21, by placing first with eight encourage votes, three discouragements and four no opinion."},{"id":"s3","title":"Third Straw Poll for UN Secretary-General Race Shows No Consensus","publisher":"PassBlue","url":"https://passblue.com/2026/09/18/third-straw-poll-for-un-secretary-general-race-shows-no-consensus/","published":"2026-09-18","quote":"Grynspan led the first round on July 30, with 10 encourage, while Rodrigues Birkett received nine."},{"id":"s4","title":"Third Straw Poll for UN Secretary-General Race Shows No Consensus","publisher":"PassBlue","url":"https://passblue.com/2026/09/18/third-straw-poll-for-un-secretary-general-race-shows-no-consensus/","published":"2026-09-18","quote":"fell to five encourage votes in Friday's poll. He received eight discourage votes and two no opinions."},{"id":"s5","title":"Third Straw Poll for UN Secretary-General Race Shows No Consensus","publisher":"PassBlue","url":"https://passblue.com/2026/09/18/third-straw-poll-for-un-secretary-general-race-shows-no-consensus/","published":"2026-09-18","quote":"received three encourage votes, six discourage and six no opinions."},{"id":"s6","title":"Third Straw Poll for UN Secretary-General Race Shows No Consensus","publisher":"PassBlue","url":"https://passblue.com/2026/09/18/third-straw-poll-for-un-secretary-general-race-shows-no-consensus/","published":"2026-09-18","quote":"Macky Sall, a former president of Senegal, recorded five encourage votes, nine discourages and one no opinion."},{"id":"s7","title":"Third Straw Poll for UN Secretary-General Race Shows No Consensus","publisher":"PassBlue","url":"https://passblue.com/2026/09/18/third-straw-poll-for-un-secretary-general-race-shows-no-consensus/","published":"2026-09-18","quote":"a former UN special representative for children and armed conflict, also received five encourage votes, along with seven discourage and three no opinions."},{"id":"s8","title":"Third Straw Poll for UN Secretary-General Race Shows No Consensus","publisher":"PassBlue","url":"https://passblue.com/2026/09/18/third-straw-poll-for-un-secretary-general-race-shows-no-consensus/","published":"2026-09-18","quote":"his straw poll results never dropped below 11 \"encourage\" votes at any point in the race"},{"id":"s9","title":"Michelle Bachelet exits UN chief race after low poll support","publisher":"Al Jazeera","url":"https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/9/20/michelle-bachelet-exits-un-chief-race-after-low-poll-support","published":"2026-09-20","quote":"she received just one \"encourage\" vote, 11 \"discourage\" votes and three \"no opinion\" votes, compared with six encouraging votes in July and two in August."},{"id":"s10","title":"1981 United Nations Secretary-General selection","publisher":"Wikipedia","url":"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1981_United_Nations_Secretary-General_selection","published":"2026-09-26","quote":"the selection deadlocked through 16 rounds of voting as China vetoed Waldheim and the United States voted against Salim."},{"id":"s11","title":"1991 United Nations Secretary-General selection","publisher":"Wikipedia","url":"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1991_United_Nations_Secretary-General_selection","published":"2026-09-26","quote":"Boutros Boutros-Ghali of Egypt and Bernard Chidzero of Zimbabwe led the straw poll with 10 votes each."},{"id":"s12","title":"1996 United Nations Secretary-General selection","publisher":"Wikipedia","url":"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1996_United_Nations_Secretary-General_selection","published":"2026-09-26","quote":"The resolution received 14 votes in favor, 1 vote against, and no abstentions. The only negative vote was the promised U.S. veto."},{"id":"s13","title":"2016 United Nations Secretary-General selection","publisher":"Wikipedia","url":"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Nations_Secretary-General_selection","published":"2026-09-26","quote":"led the polling in every round, finishing the last round with 13 'encourage' votes, 0 'discourage' votes, and 2 abstentions."},{"id":"s14","title":"2026 United Nations Secretary-General selection","publisher":"Wikipedia","url":"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Nations_Secretary-General_selection","published":"2026-09-26","quote":"Second Vice President of Costa Rica (1994-1998) Secretary-General of the Ibero-American General Secretariat (2014-2021)"},{"id":"s15","title":"2026 United Nations Secretary-General selection","publisher":"Wikipedia","url":"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Nations_Secretary-General_selection","published":"2026-09-26","quote":"Minister of Foreign Affairs of Guyana (2008-2015) Director at the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (2017-2020)"},{"id":"s16","title":"2026 United Nations Secretary-General selection","publisher":"Wikipedia","url":"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Nations_Secretary-General_selection","published":"2026-09-26","quote":"Argentine Ambassador to Austria (2013-2019) Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (2019-present)"},{"id":"s17","title":"2026 United Nations Secretary-General selection","publisher":"Wikipedia","url":"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Nations_Secretary-General_selection","published":"2026-09-26","quote":"African Group President of Senegal (2012-2024) Chairperson of the African Union (2022-2023)"},{"id":"s18","title":"2026 United Nations Secretary-General selection","publisher":"Wikipedia","url":"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Nations_Secretary-General_selection","published":"2026-09-26","quote":"a candidate from the Latin American and Caribbean Group (GRULAC) is strongly favoured."},{"id":"s19","title":"UN Security Council holds third straw poll in race for next Secretary General ahead of UNGA","publisher":"The National","url":"https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/us/2026/09/18/un-security-council-holds-third-straw-poll-in-race-for-next-secretary-general-ahead-of-unga/","published":"2026-09-18","quote":"The United States is looking for a practical, driven and reform-focused candidate who will safeguard the valuable contributions of member states"}],"hash":"248fe41b8758456556f57d930bfe6d0572462b99a8bae640e91d56706b0e492a"}],"faqs":[{"question":"Who will be the next UN Secretary-General?","answer":"As of September 26, 2026, TPG rates Rebeca Grynspan of Costa Rica, head of the UN trade and development agency UNCTAD, the most likely next Secretary-General at 45 percent. Guyana's UN ambassador Carolyn Rodrigues Birkett is second at 22 percent and IAEA chief Rafael Grossi third at 9 percent. No candidate has yet survived a ballot that reveals the veto holders' votes."},{"question":"When is the next UN Secretary-General chosen?","answer":"Antonio Guterres's second term ends on December 31, 2026, and his successor takes office on January 1, 2027. The Security Council has held three secret straw polls, on July 30, August 21 and September 18, with a fourth expected after the General Assembly's High-Level Week. The Council then recommends one name, and the General Assembly formally appoints that person, usually between October and December."},{"question":"Will the next UN Secretary-General be from Latin America?","answer":"Probably. Under the informal rule that rotates the job among regional groups, a Latin American and Caribbean candidate is strongly favoured this cycle, and the top three candidates in the latest straw poll all come from the region. The region has held the post only once, under Javier Perez de Cuellar from 1982 to 1991. We give a Latin American or Caribbean candidate roughly an 85 percent chance."},{"question":"Why did Michelle Bachelet drop out of the UN Secretary-General race?","answer":"The former Chilean president withdrew on September 19, 2026, a day after the third straw poll gave her one encourage vote and 11 discourage votes, down from six encourages in July. Chile's new government under President Jose Antonio Kast had withdrawn its support in March, and PassBlue reported the United States was the only Council member that never met with her."},{"question":"Can the U.S. veto the UN Secretary-General pick?","answer":"Yes. Any of the five permanent Security Council members, the United States, China, Russia, Britain and France, can block a candidate. The United States did so in 1981 against Salim Ahmed Salim and in 1996 against Boutros Boutros-Ghali, who had 14 of 15 votes. Colour-coded ballots later in the process reveal which discourage votes come from veto holders."}],"resolved":null,"url":"https://www.thepoliticalgroup.com/forecasts/who-will-be-the-next-un-secretary-general"},{"slug":"will-netanyahu-be-israel-prime-minister-on-march-1-2027","question":"Will Netanyahu still be Israel's prime minister on March 1, 2027?","short":"Netanyahu PM on March 1, 2027","pillar":"international","topics":["elections-abroad","middle-east"],"created":"2026-09-26","resolution":{"criteria":"Resolves YES if Benjamin Netanyahu holds the office of Prime Minister of Israel on March 1, 2027, whether as head of a newly sworn-in government or as head of an outgoing or transitional (caretaker) government. Resolves NO if on that date another person has been sworn in as prime minister, or serves as acting or interim prime minister in his place for any reason.","deadline":"2027-03-01","judgedBy":"Prime Minister's Office and Knesset records of the sitting government, confirmed by wire reports (Reuters, AP, Times of Israel)"},"whyItMatters":"Who runs Israel after the October 27, 2026 election shapes the U.S.-Israel partnership during the Iran war, Gaza policy, Saudi normalization and billions in U.S. security aid.","impact":[{"audience":"U.S. national security","effect":"Netanyahu has worked in lockstep with the Trump administration on the Iran war. A successor such as Gadi Eisenkot, a former military chief, would likely keep close security ties but could press harder for a negotiated end to the fighting and a different Gaza plan."},{"audience":"Drivers and energy markets","effect":"The war with Iran has disrupted the Strait of Hormuz and pushed up global energy prices. A government change in Jerusalem could change the odds of a ceasefire, which feeds straight into oil and gasoline prices in the United States."},{"audience":"U.S. diplomacy in the Gulf","effect":"Saudi normalization with Israel, a long-running U.S. goal, depends on the Israeli government's stance on a Palestinian pathway. A centrist-led coalition would likely be more flexible than Netanyahu's current partners."},{"audience":"American Jewish community and travelers","effect":"A deadlocked result and a repeat election would extend Israel's political turmoil into 2027, prolonging protests and uncertainty for visitors and dual citizens."},{"audience":"Congress","effect":"The identity of Israel's leader affects the politics of aid votes in Washington, where support for Netanyahu personally has become more partisan than support for Israel."}],"versions":[{"version":1,"published":"2026-09-26T07:36:07Z","cutoff":"2026-09-26","probability":0.48,"range":[0.36,0.6],"call":"Toss-up, because deadlock keeps him in office","headline":"We give Netanyahu a 48 percent chance of still being Israel's prime minister on March 1, 2027, as of September 26, 2026. His bloc polls about 49 to 54 seats, short of 61, but the opposition is also short without Arab parties. A deadlock would leave him as caretaker, which is why this is near a coin flip.","lenses":{"psychology":["Netanyahu's overriding need is to stay in office, where he is best placed to manage his ongoing corruption trial. His record says he does not concede power when the arithmetic is unclear: in 2019 and 2020 he stayed on as caretaker through three elections rather than yield. Expect him to exhaust every mandate, courting any Haredi, centrist or breakaway lawmaker who could supply the missing seats.","The opposition's leaders, Gadi Eisenkot, Naftali Bennett, Avigdor Liberman and Yair Lapid, share one goal but compete for the top job and disagree on whether to rely on Arab parties. Bennett already paid a steep political price for the 2021 government that included Ra'am, so each leader has an audience cost to weigh before depending on Arab votes again. That hesitation is Netanyahu's best friend."],"history":["Reference class: Israel's five elections since April 2019. Measured about four months after election day, Netanyahu still held the office in four of five cases: twice as caretaker after failed coalition talks in 2019, once after forming a rotation government with Benny Gantz in 2020, and once after winning outright in 2022. The single exception is 2021, when Bennett and Lapid assembled an eight-party coalition that passed 60 to 59 with Ra'am's support.","The 2021 case is the closest analogue for a NO outcome: an ideologically scattered opposition, united only against Netanyahu, reaching a bare majority with an Arab party. It breaks in two ways. The opposition today has a clearer leading figure in Eisenkot, which helps. But the anti-Netanyahu Zionist parties poll about 51 to 55 seats, so any coalition without the Arab parties needs defectors from the right or from the Haredi parties."],"statistics":["Start from the base rate: 4 of 5, or 0.80, that Netanyahu is still in office four months after an election since 2019. Adjust for today's polls. His bloc averages 54.4 seats across five polls on September 17 and just 49 in Maariv on September 25, so an outright majority of his own is unlikely, about 0.15 to 0.20. The Zionist opposition averages about 51 to 55, with Arab parties at about 12, so the anti-Netanyahu camp has 61 or more only if it counts the Arab parties or finds defectors.","Timeline arithmetic: official results come on November 4, and Israel's formation rules give a first nominee up to 42 days, a second up to 28, and the Knesset 21 more, so the process runs out around mid-February before automatic dissolution. We estimate a Netanyahu-led government at 0.20, deadlock with a repeat election and Netanyahu as caretaker at 0.22, and talks still unresolved on March 1 at 0.06, a YES total of 0.48. An opposition-led government sworn in by March 1 is 0.46 and other exits 0.06. We cut the 0.80 base rate hard because the opposition leads the head-to-head polls, Eisenkot over Netanyahu 47 to 39 in Maariv, and because a caretaker outcome, not a win, is now his likeliest path to YES."]},"betweenTheLines":[{"type":"omission","signal":"The opposition parties have not named a single agreed candidate for prime minister, and Maariv found 48 percent of their voters want a rule that the largest list's leader gets the job.","read":"No pre-agreed candidate means the real contest starts after election night. Every week of rivalry among Eisenkot, Bennett and Liberman eats into the formation clock, and time runs in Netanyahu's favor because he governs as caretaker until someone else is sworn in."},{"type":"tone","signal":"An opposition-aligned strategist warned that the bloc fell from about 60 to 61 seats two months ago to about 53 to 54 because it spent the campaign debating a partnership with Ra'am.","read":"The Arab-party question is the opposition's fault line. The more its leaders are forced to rule out Arab votes before the election, the narrower their path to 61 after it."},{"type":"cheap","signal":"A Channel 14 poll gave the right-wing bloc 64 seats while every other mainstream poll that week had it between 50 and 54.","read":"An outlier from the outlet closest to Likud is a mobilization message to discouraged right-wing voters, not evidence of a Netanyahu majority. Weight it lightly."}],"baseRate":{"value":0.8,"label":"of Israel's elections since 2019 left Netanyahu in office four months later (4 of 5)","n":5,"reference":"Computed by TPG from the April 2019, September 2019, March 2020, March 2021 and November 2022 elections, using the election sequence in Wikipedia's article on the 2018 to 2022 political crisis and the June 2021 swearing-in of the Bennett-Lapid government.","sourceIds":["s5","s6"]},"analogues":[{"case":"Bennett-Lapid change government","year":"2021","similarity":"A fragmented anti-Netanyahu camp united by a single goal, needing an Arab party to reach a majority.","outcome":"Sworn in on June 13, 2021 after a 60 to 59 vote, ending Netanyahu's 12-year run.","breaks":"Bennett then held a small right-wing party that could anchor the deal; today the centrist Yashar leads and right-wing defectors are scarcer."},{"case":"Deadlocked elections of April and September 2019","year":"2019","similarity":"Neither bloc reached 61 and a kingmaker, Avigdor Liberman, refused to join either side.","outcome":"Repeat elections, with Netanyahu staying on as caretaker prime minister throughout.","breaks":"In 2019 Netanyahu's bloc was near 55 to 60 seats and Likud was the largest party; today Likud is polling second to Yashar in most surveys."}],"scenarios":[{"name":"Netanyahu forms a new government","probability":0.2,"trigger":"His bloc outperforms the polls or he pulls in defectors from the opposition or a centrist list to reach 61."},{"name":"Deadlock and a repeat election, Netanyahu as caretaker","probability":0.22,"trigger":"Neither camp reaches 61 without the Arab parties and the opposition refuses to depend on them; the Knesset dissolves."},{"name":"Talks still unresolved on March 1","probability":0.06,"trigger":"Coalition bargaining runs into the Knesset's final 21-day window and no government is sworn in by the deadline."},{"name":"Opposition-led government sworn in","probability":0.46,"trigger":"Eisenkot or Bennett assembles 61 votes, with Arab party support from outside or with a centrist or Haredi defection."},{"name":"Netanyahu leaves by another route","probability":0.06,"trigger":"A Likud-led unity deal under a different prime minister, a rotation that starts with someone else, or a legal or health event."}],"signposts":[{"signal":"Official results show the Netanyahu bloc at 58 seats or more","direction":"up","effect":"+15 to +20 points"},{"signal":"Opposition leaders agree before election day on a single prime ministerial candidate and on whether Arab parties can support the government","direction":"down","effect":"-5 to -8 points"},{"signal":"A Haredi party signals it would sit in a government led by Eisenkot","direction":"down","effect":"-10 points"},{"signal":"The president gives the first mandate to Netanyahu after consultations","direction":"up","effect":"+8 points"}],"market":{"source":"Kalshi","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxisraelpm","probability":0.28,"asOf":"2026-09-26","gapRead":"Kalshi's contract asks who becomes prime minister after the election, which ignores caretaker time, and prices Netanyahu at 0.28 with Eisenkot at 0.54. Our question counts a caretaker Netanyahu on March 1, which adds roughly 0.2. On the core question of who forms the next government we are broadly in line with the market."},"stats":[{"value":"54.4","label":"seats: Netanyahu bloc's average across five polls on September 17, short of the 61 needed","sourceId":"s1"},{"value":"49","label":"seats for Netanyahu's coalition bloc in Maariv's September 25 poll","sourceId":"s3"},{"value":"12.2","label":"seats: average for the Arab parties, the swing question for any opposition government","sourceId":"s2"},{"value":"47% to 39%","label":"Eisenkot's lead over Netanyahu on suitability to be prime minister (Maariv)","sourceId":"s4"},{"value":"60 to 59","label":"the Knesset vote that seated the 2021 Bennett-Lapid government, the last time the opposition ousted him","sourceId":"s5"}],"sources":[{"id":"s1","title":"Eisenkot leads most polls, but Netanyahu shortens distance, according to some of the top pollers","publisher":"The Jerusalem Post (Maariv)","url":"https://www.jpost.com/israel-election-2026/article-908921","published":"2026-09-17","quote":"The Netanyahu bloc, including People of Israel, averaged 54.4 seats, compared with 51 for the Zionist opposition parties."},{"id":"s2","title":"Eisenkot leads most polls, but Netanyahu shortens distance, according to some of the top pollers","publisher":"The Jerusalem Post (Maariv)","url":"https://www.jpost.com/israel-election-2026/article-908921","published":"2026-09-17","quote":"The Arab parties together averaged 12.2 seats, while the Hendel-Zelekha list averaged 2.4."},{"id":"s3","title":"Haredi parties, Yashar, coalition bloc lose seats in Knesset, as Otzma Yehudit gains one: poll","publisher":"The Jerusalem Post","url":"https://www.jpost.com/israel-election-2026/article-909659","published":"2026-09-25","quote":"The coalition bloc fell by one seat to just 49 as both haredi (ultra-Orthodox) parties lost one seat each"},{"id":"s4","title":"Haredi parties, Yashar, coalition bloc lose seats in Knesset, as Otzma Yehudit gains one: poll","publisher":"The Jerusalem Post","url":"https://www.jpost.com/israel-election-2026/article-909659","published":"2026-09-25","quote":"Eisenkot received 47% support, compared with 39% for Netanyahu."},{"id":"s5","title":"Thirty-sixth government of Israel","publisher":"Wikipedia","url":"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thirty-sixth_government_of_Israel","published":"2026-09-26","quote":"The Bennett-Lapid government was confirmed by a vote of 60 to 59"},{"id":"s6","title":"2019 to 2022 Israeli political crisis","publisher":"Wikipedia","url":"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%932022_Israeli_political_crisis","published":"2026-09-26","quote":"The first two elections of the crisis in April and September 2019 failed to produce a governing coalition"},{"id":"s7","title":"2026 Israeli legislative election","publisher":"Wikipedia","url":"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Israeli_legislative_election","published":"2026-09-26","quote":"The official results will be confirmed on 4 November."}],"hash":"837b4f27c38eb054e720a35b12cd9dc023f5d5d0d340a0c01c4b323d62099245"}],"faqs":[{"question":"When is the Israel election 2026?","answer":"Israel's Knesset election is on Tuesday, October 27, 2026, with official results due on November 4. All 120 seats are elected by nationwide proportional representation, and a government needs 61 votes. Coalition talks usually take weeks to months, and Netanyahu stays in office as caretaker until a new government is sworn in."},{"question":"Will Netanyahu win the 2026 election?","answer":"As of September 26, 2026, polls show Netanyahu's bloc between about 49 and 54 seats, below the 61 needed, and Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar level with or ahead of Likud. TPG gives Netanyahu about a 20 percent chance of forming a new government, but a 48 percent chance of still being prime minister on March 1, 2027, because a deadlock would keep him on as caretaker."},{"question":"Who will be the next prime minister of Israel?","answer":"The two realistic candidates are Benjamin Netanyahu and Gadi Eisenkot, the former military chief who leads Yashar, with Naftali Bennett a distant third. Eisenkot leads Netanyahu 47 to 39 on suitability in a September 25 Maariv poll, but the opposition likely needs Arab party support or defectors to reach 61 seats."},{"question":"What happens if no one wins a majority in Israel?","answer":"The president gives a mandate to the lawmaker most likely to form a government, with up to 42 days, then possibly a second candidate, then a final 21-day window for the Knesset. If all fail, the Knesset dissolves and a new election follows about three months later. The sitting prime minister governs as caretaker the whole time."}],"resolved":null,"url":"https://www.thepoliticalgroup.com/forecasts/will-netanyahu-be-israel-prime-minister-on-march-1-2027"},{"kind":"field","slug":"who-will-be-new-zealand-prime-minister-after-the-2026-election","question":"Who will be New Zealand's prime minister after the 2026 election?","short":"NZ prime minister after 2026 vote","pillar":"international","topics":["elections-abroad","asia-pacific"],"created":"2026-09-26","resolution":{"criteria":"Resolves to the person sworn in, or confirmed as continuing, as Prime Minister of New Zealand when the first government formed after the November 7, 2026 general election takes office. If no new government has been formed by March 31, 2027, resolves to whoever holds the office of prime minister on that date.","deadline":"2027-03-31","judgedBy":"New Zealand Government House and Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet announcements, confirmed by RNZ and wire reports"},"whyItMatters":"New Zealand is a Five Eyes intelligence partner and a Pacific ally, and its next government will set its line on the AUKUS partnership, China, trade with the United States and Pacific security.","impact":[{"audience":"U.S. national security","effect":"A second Luxon government would likely keep moving closer to the AUKUS technology pillar and to U.S. positions in the Pacific. A Hipkins government relying on the Greens and Te Pati Maori would likely be more cautious about AUKUS and about criticizing China."},{"audience":"U.S. exporters and importers","effect":"Both main parties support free trade, but a left-leaning coalition including the Opportunity Party could bring new taxes on capital and land that affect American investors in New Zealand."},{"audience":"American travelers and students","effect":"Little changes for visitors, but immigration and visa settings for students and skilled workers differ between the blocs, with the current coalition tightening some rules."},{"audience":"Investors in New Zealand assets","effect":"A hung parliament or long coalition talks, which the polls make possible, would add uncertainty for the New Zealand dollar and local markets into early 2027."}],"versions":[{"version":1,"published":"2026-09-26T08:10:07Z","cutoff":"2026-09-26","probability":0.5,"range":[0.38,0.62],"call":"Coin flip, slight edge to Luxon","headline":"As of September 26, 2026, Christopher Luxon is the slight favourite to be New Zealand's prime minister after the November 7 election, at 50 percent to Chris Hipkins's 42. The main reason is arithmetic: Labour has ruled out NZ First, so Hipkins needs four parties to govern, while Luxon's current coalition has more paths to 61 seats.","lenses":{"psychology":["Both leaders have boxed themselves in with public promises. Winston Peters says NZ First won't do a deal with Labour, and in August Chris Hipkins answered by ruling out NZ First himself, citing what he called overt racism. Luxon, for his part, has ruled out working with the Opportunity Party. Those are costly signals because breaking them after the election would carry a large audience cost, and together they fix the two blocs in place.","Voters are unhappy with both major parties. Labour and National are each below 30 percent, 56 percent say the country is heading in the wrong direction, and Hipkins leads Luxon as preferred prime minister 45 to 35 in the latest Post poll. That is a warning sign for Luxon personally, but preferred prime minister ratings do not decide New Zealand elections: the party vote and the coalition arithmetic do. Peters's record of choosing between blocs after the vote is the one behavior Luxon's allies openly worry about."],"history":["Reference class: New Zealand governments seeking a second term. Since 1935, only two governments have lasted a single term, both Labour, in 1957 to 1960 and 1972 to 1975. Counting the first-term governments since 1935 whose re-election bids have been decided, 9 of 11 won a second term, a base rate of about 0.82. No National-led government has ever lost after one term.","The closest analogue is 2023 in reverse: a first-term government with a weak major party, a strong NZ First and a fragmented left. It breaks because this time the minor parties are unusually large. National has lost about 11 points since 2023, much of it to ACT and NZ First, and the Opportunity Party is polling above the 5 percent threshold, which could hand the balance of power to a party Luxon has ruled out."],"statistics":["Start with the 0.82 historical base rate for a second term. The polls deserve far more weight 6 weeks out. The Herald-Motu poll of polls gives the National, NZ First and ACT coalition a 47.3 percent chance of forming the next government, and a four-party opposition including the Opportunity Party 41.9 percent, leaving about 11 percent for a hung parliament or other outcome. Because Labour has ruled out NZ First, most of that residual favours the right bloc, which puts the coalition's total near 0.53.","Luxon is not guaranteed the premiership even if his coalition wins; with National near 27 to 30 percent and his personal ratings trailing, we put the chance that National replaces him before or during coalition talks at about 8 percent. Blending 90 percent polls and 10 percent base rate for the coalition gives 0.9 times 0.53 plus 0.1 times 0.82, about 0.56. Multiplying by 0.92 for the leader risk gives about 0.51, which we trim to 0.50 because the polls have been volatile. Hipkins takes about 0.42, since he leads Labour in every left-bloc scenario. Kalshi last traded Luxon at 0.57."]},"betweenTheLines":[{"type":"costly","signal":"Chris Hipkins formally ruled out any government with NZ First on August 11, saying 'It's clearly not going to happen.'","read":"Giving up the kingmaker's option costs Labour a path to power, which is why it took months. It tells us Hipkins judged that the Peters question was hurting him more with left-leaning voters than the lost coalition option was worth, and it locks NZ First's 8 to 13 percent to the right."},{"type":"omission","signal":"Luxon has ruled out the Opportunity Party, even though polling models show it holding the balance of power.","read":"Leaving no route to a National and Opportunity deal means a hung parliament could end with a different National leader rather than a different coalition. That is why we give National's other senior figures a small chance."},{"type":"tone","signal":"Commentator Matthew Hooton called National's decline the defining polling story of this Parliament, and National's finance minister Nicola Willis has said Peters will always find a way around past promises.","read":"Senior figures on the right are publicly hedging about both their own vote and their partner's loyalty. That is the language of a coalition preparing for a close count, not a comfortable win."},{"type":"cheap","signal":"Hipkins has widened his preferred prime minister lead to 10 points.","read":"Preferred prime minister numbers are cheap to give and do not form governments. They matter mainly as pressure on National's caucus if its party vote stays below 30 percent."}],"baseRate":{"value":0.82,"label":"of first-term New Zealand governments since 1935 won a second term (9 of 11)","n":11,"reference":"Computed by TPG from the 11 decided first-term re-election bids since 1935; The Spinoff's history confirms only two one-term governments, both Labour (1957 to 1960 and 1972 to 1975).","sourceIds":["s8"]},"analogues":[{"case":"2023 New Zealand election","year":"2023","similarity":"A first-term government facing a fragmented field, with NZ First as a potential kingmaker.","outcome":"National, ACT and NZ First formed a three-party coalition and Labour lost after two terms.","breaks":"In 2023 the right bloc had a clear lead; in 2026 the blocs are close to level and a fourth party, Opportunity, may decide the outcome."},{"case":"1975 New Zealand election","year":"1975","similarity":"The last time a government lost after one term.","outcome":"Robert Muldoon's National defeated the third Labour government in a landslide.","breaks":"That defeat came after a leader's death and an economic shock under a two-party system; MMP coalitions make wholesale swings less likely."}],"scenarios":[{"name":"National, ACT and NZ First return with Luxon as prime minister","probability":0.5,"trigger":"The right bloc reaches 61 seats, or NZ First's share delivers a majority, and National keeps Luxon."},{"name":"Four-party left government under Hipkins","probability":0.42,"trigger":"Labour, the Greens, Te Pati Maori and the Opportunity Party together reach a majority."},{"name":"Right bloc governs under a new National leader","probability":0.05,"trigger":"A weak National result or a coalition demand leads the caucus to replace Luxon with Nicola Willis, Chris Bishop or another MP."},{"name":"Other outcome","probability":0.03,"trigger":"A prolonged hung parliament, a new election or an unexpected coalition produces a different prime minister."}],"signposts":[{"signal":"The Opportunity Party falls below 5 percent in polling averages","direction":"up","effect":"+10 points for Luxon"},{"signal":"National polls above 32 percent in two consecutive major polls","direction":"up","effect":"+5 points"},{"signal":"Labour, Greens and Te Pati Maori together poll above 50 percent of seats without Opportunity","direction":"down","effect":"-15 points for Luxon"},{"signal":"Public reports of a National caucus move against Luxon before election day","direction":"down","effect":"-10 points for Luxon, mostly to other National MPs"}],"market":{"source":"Kalshi","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnzpm","probability":0.57,"asOf":"2026-09-26","gapRead":"We are 7 points below Kalshi's last trade on Luxon. The order book is thin, with bids near 0.51, and the Herald-Motu model gives his coalition only 47.3 percent. We also price a small risk that National changes leader, which a single-name market tends to overlook."},"field":[{"name":"Christopher Luxon","party":"National","role":"Prime Minister of New Zealand since 2023, MP for Botany","probability":0.5,"experienceYears":6,"electionsWon":2,"electionsLost":0,"record":[{"label":"Office","value":"42nd prime minister since 2023; MP for Botany since 2020","sourceId":"s9"},{"label":"National party vote (Post/Freshwater, Sept. 4 to 11)","value":"27%","sourceId":"s1"},{"label":"Coalition's chance to form government (Herald-Motu)","value":"47.3%","sourceId":"s4"},{"label":"Preferred prime minister (Post/Freshwater)","value":"35%, trailing Hipkins","sourceId":"s6"}],"case":"His coalition partners, ACT and NZ First, are gaining the votes National has lost, and Labour's rule-out of NZ First narrows the left's path to power.","risk":"The Opportunity Party could hold the balance of power, and he has ruled out working with it."},{"name":"Chris Hipkins","party":"Labour","role":"Leader of the Opposition, former prime minister","probability":0.42,"experienceYears":9,"record":[{"label":"Office","value":"41st prime minister, January to November 2023","sourceId":"s10"},{"label":"Labour party vote (Post/Freshwater, Sept. 4 to 11)","value":"28%, narrowly first","sourceId":"s1"},{"label":"Preferred prime minister (Post/Freshwater)","value":"45%","sourceId":"s6"},{"label":"Four-party opposition's chance (Herald-Motu)","value":"41.9%","sourceId":"s5"}],"case":"He leads as preferred prime minister and Labour narrowly tops the latest poll, while the Opportunity Party's rise gives the left a fourth partner.","risk":"He needs four parties to reach 61 seats, and the Herald-Motu model gives the three-party opposition alone only a 1.3 percent chance."},{"name":"Nicola Willis","party":"National","role":"Deputy Leader of the National Party and Minister of Finance","probability":0.02,"experienceYears":8,"record":[{"label":"Office","value":"National deputy leader since 2021; Minister of Finance","sourceId":"s11"}],"case":"As deputy leader and finance minister she is the natural successor if National's caucus replaces Luxon.","risk":"National has never dumped a sitting prime minister around an election, and she is closely tied to the government's record."},{"name":"Chris Bishop","party":"National","role":"Senior National minister, MP since 2014","probability":0.02,"experienceYears":12,"record":[{"label":"Parliament","value":"First elected in 2014 as a list MP","sourceId":"s12"}],"case":"A senior cabinet minister with a strong profile in housing and infrastructure, he is regularly named as a future National leader.","risk":"A leadership change would only happen after a poor result, and he would have to beat Willis for the job."},{"name":"Someone else","party":null,"role":"Any person not listed, including another National MP or a compromise figure after a hung parliament","probability":0.04,"record":[],"case":"With both major parties below 30 percent and a possible hung parliament, an unusual outcome is more plausible than in most elections.","risk":"New Zealand's MMP system has always produced a government led by the leader of National or Labour."}],"stats":[{"value":"28% and 27%","label":"Labour and National party vote in the Post/Freshwater Strategy poll, Sept. 4 to 11","sourceId":"s1"},{"value":"60 seats","label":"for National, ACT and NZ First in the Post's model, one short of a majority in a 120-seat parliament","sourceId":"s2"},{"value":"47.3%","label":"Herald-Motu model's probability that the current coalition forms the next government","sourceId":"s4"},{"value":"41.9%","label":"Herald-Motu model's probability for a four-party opposition including Opportunity","sourceId":"s5"},{"value":"45% to 35%","label":"Hipkins's lead over Luxon as preferred prime minister","sourceId":"s6"},{"value":"2","label":"one-term governments in New Zealand history, both Labour","sourceId":"s8"}],"sources":[{"id":"s1","title":"New Zealand poll puts Labour ahead of PM Luxon's National Party","publisher":"Reuters via Free Malaysia Today","url":"https://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/world/2026/09/15/new-zealand-poll-puts-labour-ahead-of-pm-luxon-s-national-party","published":"2026-09-15","quote":"The Post-Freshwater Strategy poll funded by Infrastructure New Zealand put Labour on 28% and National on 27%."},{"id":"s2","title":"New Zealand poll puts Labour ahead of PM Luxon's National Party","publisher":"Reuters via Free Malaysia Today","url":"https://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/world/2026/09/15/new-zealand-poll-puts-labour-ahead-of-pm-luxon-s-national-party","published":"2026-09-15","quote":"would win 60 seats in a 120-seat parliament, short of a majority."},{"id":"s3","title":"New Zealand poll puts Labour ahead of PM Luxon's National Party","publisher":"Reuters via Free Malaysia Today","url":"https://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/world/2026/09/15/new-zealand-poll-puts-labour-ahead-of-pm-luxon-s-national-party","published":"2026-09-15","quote":"However, Luxon has ruled out working with the Opportunity Party, complicating National's path to a second term."},{"id":"s4","title":"State of the race: The Labour/National joint slump continues in new poll","publisher":"The Spinoff","url":"https://thespinoff.co.nz/the-bulletin/15-09-2026/state-of-the-race-the-labour-national-joint-slump-continues-in-new-poll","published":"2026-09-15","quote":"The model predicts a 47.3% probability that the National-NZ First-Act coalition can form a government again"},{"id":"s5","title":"State of the race: The Labour/National joint slump continues in new poll","publisher":"The Spinoff","url":"https://thespinoff.co.nz/the-bulletin/15-09-2026/state-of-the-race-the-labour-national-joint-slump-continues-in-new-poll","published":"2026-09-15","quote":"The model gives a four-party coalition of the Opposition plus Opportunity a 41.9% chance of getting over the line"},{"id":"s6","title":"State of the race: The Labour/National joint slump continues in new poll","publisher":"The Spinoff","url":"https://thespinoff.co.nz/the-bulletin/15-09-2026/state-of-the-race-the-labour-national-joint-slump-continues-in-new-poll","published":"2026-09-15","quote":"Chris Hipkins has widened his lead as preferred prime minister, sitting on 45% to Christopher Luxoen's 35%."},{"id":"s7","title":"'It's clearly not going to happen': Labour finally officially rules out working with NZ First","publisher":"The Spinoff","url":"https://thespinoff.co.nz/the-bulletin/11-08-2026/its-clearly-not-going-to-happen-labour-finally-officially-rules-out-working-with-nz-first","published":"2026-08-11","quote":"Labour finally officially rules out working with NZ First"},{"id":"s8","title":"A complete history of New Zealand's one-term governments","publisher":"The Spinoff","url":"https://thespinoff.co.nz/politics/17-01-2025/a-complete-history-of-new-zealands-one-term-governments-2","published":"2025-01-17","quote":"there have been just two, and both were Labour."},{"id":"s9","title":"Christopher Luxon","publisher":"Wikipedia","url":"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christopher_Luxon","published":"2026-09-26","quote":"has served as the 42nd prime minister of New Zealand since 2023."},{"id":"s10","title":"Chris Hipkins","publisher":"Wikipedia","url":"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chris_Hipkins","published":"2026-09-26","quote":"He was the 41st prime minister of New Zealand from January to November 2023"},{"id":"s11","title":"Nicola Willis","publisher":"Wikipedia","url":"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nicola_Willis","published":"2026-09-26","quote":"is a New Zealand politician who has been deputy leader of the National Party since 2021."},{"id":"s12","title":"Chris Bishop (politician)","publisher":"Wikipedia","url":"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chris_Bishop_(politician)","published":"2026-09-26","quote":"He was first elected to the New Zealand House of Representatives in 2014 as a list MP"},{"id":"s13","title":"Election 2026: Winston Peters says NZ First 'won't do a deal with Labour'","publisher":"NZ Herald","url":"https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/election-2026-winston-peters-says-nz-first-wont-do-a-deal-with-labour-as-chris-hipkins-remains-non-committal-nicola-willis-unconvinced/RPUZCC2UWBBB3EELNI2SQGQTPY/","published":"2026-04-23","quote":"Winston Peters says his party \"won't do a deal with Labour\", as \"nothing has changed\" since his 2022 promise"},{"id":"s14","title":"State of the race: The Labour/National joint slump continues in new poll","publisher":"The Spinoff","url":"https://thespinoff.co.nz/the-bulletin/15-09-2026/state-of-the-race-the-labour-national-joint-slump-continues-in-new-poll","published":"2026-09-15","quote":"A majority of voters, 56%, believe New Zealand is headed in the wrong direction"}],"hash":"92d634d69e2202fbc5a842adf7776d362cc1b2e0472a0edcef01813afb8ebdd9"}],"faqs":[{"question":"Who will win the New Zealand election 2026?","answer":"As of September 26, 2026, TPG gives Prime Minister Christopher Luxon a 50 percent chance of leading the government after the November 7 election and Labour's Chris Hipkins 42 percent. Labour and National are both below 30 percent, so the result depends on coalition arithmetic. Labour has ruled out NZ First, which forces Hipkins to rely on four parties."},{"question":"When is the New Zealand election?","answer":"New Zealand's general election is on Saturday, November 7, 2026. Voters cast a party vote and an electorate vote under the MMP system, and parties need 5 percent of the party vote or an electorate seat to enter Parliament. Coalition talks usually take several weeks after election day before a government is sworn in."},{"question":"What do the latest New Zealand polls say?","answer":"The Post/Freshwater Strategy poll taken September 4 to 11 had Labour on 28 percent, National 27, the Greens 14, NZ First 13, ACT 9 and the Opportunity Party 6. The Post's model gave the governing coalition 60 of 120 seats, one short of a majority, with Opportunity holding the balance of power. Hipkins led Luxon as preferred prime minister 45 to 35."},{"question":"Will NZ First work with Labour?","answer":"Both sides say no. Winston Peters said in April that NZ First won't do a deal with Labour, and on August 11 Chris Hipkins formally ruled out NZ First from any government he leads. That means NZ First's seats count toward a Luxon-led coalition, and Hipkins needs Labour, the Greens, Te Pati Maori and the Opportunity Party together to govern."}],"resolved":null,"url":"https://www.thepoliticalgroup.com/forecasts/who-will-be-new-zealand-prime-minister-after-the-2026-election"},{"kind":"field","slug":"who-will-win-the-2027-french-presidential-election","question":"Who will win the 2027 French presidential election?","short":"France 2027 president","pillar":"international","topics":["elections-abroad","europe"],"created":"2026-09-26","resolution":{"criteria":"Resolves to the candidate proclaimed President of the Republic by France's Constitutional Council after the 2027 presidential election, scheduled for a first round on April 18, 2027 and a runoff on May 2, 2027. If the dates move, it resolves on the rescheduled election.","deadline":"2027-05-02","judgedBy":"Results proclaimed by the Conseil constitutionnel, confirmed by the French Interior Ministry and wire reports"},"whyItMatters":"France is a nuclear power, a permanent UN Security Council member and the EU's leading military force, so its next president will shape NATO, support for Ukraine, EU trade policy toward the United States and the stability of the euro.","impact":[{"audience":"U.S. national security and NATO watchers","effect":"A National Rally president, Marine Le Pen or Jordan Bardella, would likely be more skeptical of military aid to Ukraine and of deeper EU defence integration. A centrist such as Edouard Philippe would likely keep France's current line on Ukraine and NATO."},{"audience":"U.S. exporters and investors","effect":"The National Rally and the hard left both promise more spending and a tougher line on EU fiscal rules, which could widen French borrowing costs and move the euro. A centrist win would likely calm bond markets."},{"audience":"American companies in France","effect":"Tax, energy and trade policy toward U.S. tech and agriculture would shift depending on the winner, with protectionist instincts on both the far right and the far left."},{"audience":"Travelers and expats","effect":"A far-right or far-left win would likely bring large street protests in the weeks after May 2, as France saw after the 2024 snap legislative election."}],"versions":[{"version":1,"published":"2026-09-26T08:10:07Z","cutoff":"2026-09-26","probability":0.42,"range":[0.3,0.54],"call":"Le Pen is the favourite, not a lock","headline":"As of September 26, 2026, Marine Le Pen is the most likely winner of France's 2027 presidential election at 42 percent. She polls 33 to 36 percent in the first round and leads every tested runoff, but her 55 to 45 edge over Edouard Philippe is narrow, and French far-right candidates have lost all three runoffs they reached.","lenses":{"psychology":["Le Pen needs to prove the 2027 race is hers, not her party's. After the July 7 appeal ruling reduced her ban and left her eligible, she declared within hours and promised a pairing with Jordan Bardella as her prime minister. That is a costly public commitment: it forecloses a quiet handover to Bardella unless a court forces it, and it ties her personal legal fight to the campaign. She has also said she will campaign without the electronic tag, betting that her appeal to the Court of Cassation suspends it.","Voters in the runoff decide on rejection as much as preference. In 2002, 2017 and 2022, a large share of voters backed whoever faced the National Rally, the so-called republican front. The centre's problem is that Philippe and Gabriel Attal are fighting each other, and each needs to reach the runoff first. The left's problem is the reverse: Jean-Luc Melenchon can make the runoff but loses badly to Le Pen in head-to-head polls, while Raphael Glucksmann polls better against her but struggles to finish second."],"history":["Reference class: Fifth Republic presidential runoffs since 1965. The first-round leader won 8 of 11. The exceptions (1974, 1981, 1995) all involved a runoff opponent who united a bloc that was larger than the leader's. That is exactly the structure Le Pen faces: she leads the first round comfortably, but whether she wins depends on whether the anti-National Rally vote holds together.","The closest analogue is 2022, when Le Pen lost the runoff to Emmanuel Macron 41.45 to 58.55. It breaks in two ways: there is no incumbent in 2027, and her runoff polling has improved from losing in 2022 to leading by about 10 points against every tested opponent. A cautionary analogue is 1995: seven months out, Edouard Balladur led Jacques Chirac 32 to 18 in first-round polls and still lost, a reminder that early leads in French elections can reverse."],"statistics":["Start from the first-round leader's base rate of 8 in 11, about 0.73. Le Pen is very likely to reach the runoff: she leads by at least 14 points in every scenario. But she must also be the National Rally's candidate on election day; given the pending Court of Cassation ruling and the electronic tag condition, we put that at about 0.85, with Bardella as the substitute otherwise.","For the runoff, recent polls show her ahead of Philippe 55 to 45 and Attal 56 to 44, but the far right has never won a French runoff and polling error seven months out is large, so we treat a runoff win as about 0.53. Multiply 0.85 times 0.95 for reaching the runoff times 0.53 and the result is about 0.43; a one-point deduction for the 1995-style risk of a late surge by a united centre gives 0.42. The regulated Kalshi market has Le Pen at 0.41, almost identical."]},"betweenTheLines":[{"type":"costly","signal":"Le Pen declared her candidacy on national television hours after the appeal ruling and named Bardella as her intended prime minister.","read":"Announcing the ticket immediately closed off the easy exit of handing the nomination to Bardella. It raises the cost of any later switch, so a substitution now only happens if a court forces it, not by choice."},{"type":"sequencing","signal":"The Court of Cassation has said it can rule before the April election, and Le Pen says her appeal suspends the requirement to wear an electronic tag.","read":"The timing of that ruling is the single biggest wildcard. A ruling that upholds the tag in early 2027 would put a candidate under house arrest in the final weeks, which is when a Bardella swap becomes most likely."},{"type":"omission","signal":"Philippe and Attal are both declared centrist candidates, and neither has signalled any willingness to stand aside.","read":"Every poll that shows Philippe as the only candidate who can beat Le Pen assumes a unified centre. As long as both run, Melenchon has a real path to the runoff, where polls show him losing to Le Pen by roughly two to one."},{"type":"personnel","signal":"The Republicans nominated Bruno Retailleau without a primary, after which David Lisnard left the party and Xavier Bertrand announced an independent run.","read":"The traditional right is splintered into several candidates polling in single digits. That leaves more of its voters available to Philippe in the first round and, in some cases, to Le Pen in the runoff."}],"baseRate":{"value":0.73,"label":"of Fifth Republic presidential runoffs since 1965 (8 of 11) were won by the first-round leader","n":11,"reference":"Computed by TPG from official first- and second-round results for the 11 runoff elections from 1965 to 2022; the first-round leader lost in 1974, 1981 and 1995.","sourceIds":["s9","s10"]},"analogues":[{"case":"2022 French presidential runoff, Macron vs Le Pen","year":"2022","similarity":"Le Pen against a centrist in a runoff decided by the anti-National Rally vote.","outcome":"Macron won 58.55 to 41.45, a narrower margin than in 2017.","breaks":"There is no incumbent in 2027, and Le Pen now leads every tested runoff rather than trailing."},{"case":"1995 French presidential election, Balladur vs Chirac","year":"1995","similarity":"A clear poll leader months before the vote in a fragmented field.","outcome":"Balladur led Chirac 32 to 18 in January 1995 polls and failed to reach the runoff.","breaks":"Balladur's lead depended on a split within his own camp; Le Pen's base is more loyal and her lead is larger."}],"scenarios":[{"name":"Le Pen runs and wins the runoff","probability":0.42,"trigger":"The Court of Cassation does not force her off the trail, and she beats a divided centre or Melenchon on May 2."},{"name":"Bardella substitutes for Le Pen and wins","probability":0.06,"trigger":"A court ruling or the tag condition forces a switch, and Bardella holds the National Rally vote."},{"name":"Philippe unites the centre and wins the runoff","probability":0.24,"trigger":"Attal or other centrists stand aside, Philippe finishes second, and the republican front holds."},{"name":"A left candidate wins","probability":0.11,"trigger":"Melenchon or Glucksmann reaches the runoff and draws enough centrist votes to beat the National Rally."},{"name":"Another centre or right candidate wins","probability":0.07,"trigger":"Attal or Retailleau overtakes Philippe as the leading non-RN candidate and wins the runoff."},{"name":"Someone else wins","probability":0.1,"trigger":"A candidate not yet leading, or a late entrant, surges in the final months."}],"signposts":[{"signal":"The Court of Cassation upholds the ruling with the electronic tag before April","direction":"down","effect":"-15 points for Le Pen, most of it moving to Bardella"},{"signal":"Attal withdraws and backs Philippe","direction":"down","effect":"-5 points for Le Pen, +8 for Philippe"},{"signal":"The left unites behind one candidate after the October primaries","direction":"down","effect":"-3 points"},{"signal":"Le Pen leads Philippe by 12 points or more in runoff polls","direction":"up","effect":"+8 points"}],"market":{"source":"Kalshi","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxfrenchpres","probability":0.41,"asOf":"2026-09-26","gapRead":"We agree with the market within one point on Le Pen. We are higher on Bardella than traders are, at 6 percent against about 2, because the unresolved Court of Cassation appeal makes a late substitution a real possibility."},"field":[{"name":"Marine Le Pen","party":"National Rally","role":"Deputy for Pas-de-Calais, three-time presidential candidate","probability":0.42,"experienceYears":22,"record":[{"label":"First-round polling (Harris Interactive, Sept.)","value":"33% to 36%","sourceId":"s1"},{"label":"Runoff polls vs Philippe / Attal","value":"55-45 / 56-44","sourceId":"s2"},{"label":"2022 runoff result","value":"41.45%","sourceId":"s9"},{"label":"Appeal ruling, July 7, 2026","value":"Ban cut to 45 months, eligible to run","sourceId":"s11"}],"case":"She leads the first round by double digits and every tested runoff, with a loyal base that has grown in each of her last three campaigns.","risk":"The far right has never won a French runoff, and a Court of Cassation ruling could put her under house arrest during the campaign."},{"name":"Edouard Philippe","party":"Horizons","role":"Mayor of Le Havre, Prime Minister of France 2017 to 2020","probability":0.24,"experienceYears":14,"record":[{"label":"First-round polling","value":"17% to 19%","sourceId":"s4"},{"label":"Runoff polling","value":"Only candidate to have polled ahead of Le Pen head to head","sourceId":"s5"},{"label":"Offices","value":"Prime Minister 2017 to 2020; Mayor of Le Havre","sourceId":"s12"}],"case":"He is the centrist best placed to reach the runoff and the only candidate who has ever led Le Pen in a head-to-head poll.","risk":"A split centre with Attal could leave him third behind Melenchon."},{"name":"Jordan Bardella","party":"National Rally","role":"President of the National Rally","probability":0.06,"record":[{"label":"Position","value":"Party president, 30 years old, presumed substitute for Le Pen","sourceId":"s11b"}],"case":"Pollsters have found he scores about the same as Le Pen, so a forced switch would not sink the National Rally's chances.","risk":"He only runs if Le Pen is forced out, and she has publicly committed to running."},{"name":"Jean-Luc Melenchon","party":"La France Insoumise","role":"Leader of La France Insoumise, three-time presidential candidate","probability":0.06,"record":[{"label":"First-round polling","value":"16% to 17%","sourceId":"s3"},{"label":"Runoff poll vs Le Pen","value":"33% to 67%","sourceId":"s3b"},{"label":"2022 first-round result","value":"21.95%, third place","sourceId":"s10b"}],"case":"He has a solid left base and reaches the runoff in three of five tested scenarios when the centre is divided.","risk":"He trails Le Pen by about 34 points in runoff polling, the worst head-to-head of any major candidate."},{"name":"Raphael Glucksmann","party":"Place Publique","role":"Member of the European Parliament, Socialist-backed primary candidate","probability":0.05,"record":[{"label":"First-round polling","value":"10% to 13%","sourceId":"s6"}],"case":"If he wins the October Socialist primary and the Greens and Communists join him, he could overtake Melenchon for the left's runoff slot.","risk":"He currently polls third or fourth and never second."},{"name":"Gabriel Attal","party":"Renaissance","role":"Former Prime Minister of France, General Secretary of Renaissance","probability":0.04,"record":[{"label":"First-round polling","value":"No higher than 14%","sourceId":"s7"},{"label":"Runoff poll vs Le Pen","value":"44% to 56%","sourceId":"s2"}],"case":"He controls Macron's party machine and polls competitively against Le Pen in a runoff.","risk":"He trails Philippe for the centre's vote and never polls second."},{"name":"Bruno Retailleau","party":"The Republicans","role":"President of The Republicans, former Interior Minister","probability":0.03,"record":[{"label":"Nomination","value":"Backed by more than 73% of party members","sourceId":"s13"},{"label":"First-round polling","value":"About 8%, up to 10%","sourceId":"s8"}],"case":"He holds the traditional right's nomination and could consolidate conservative voters if Philippe falters.","risk":"He never polls above fifth place."},{"name":"Someone else","party":null,"role":"Any candidate not listed, including Villepin, Zemmour, Lisnard, Bertrand or a late entrant","probability":0.1,"record":[],"case":"The field is the largest in Fifth Republic history, and seven months leaves time for a surge like Macron's in 2017.","risk":"No other candidate currently polls near second place."}],"stats":[{"value":"33% to 36%","label":"Le Pen's first-round vote share across Harris Interactive scenarios in September","sourceId":"s1"},{"value":"55% to 45%","label":"Le Pen's lead over Edouard Philippe in a hypothetical runoff, her closest matchup","sourceId":"s2"},{"value":"17% to 19%","label":"Philippe's first-round range, the best of any non-RN candidate","sourceId":"s4"},{"value":"58.55%","label":"Macron's share in the 2022 runoff against Le Pen","sourceId":"s9"},{"value":"32% against 18%","label":"Balladur's January 1995 poll lead over Chirac, who went on to win","sourceId":"s10"}],"sources":[{"id":"s1","title":"Le Pen maintains clear lead in 2027 French presidential race: Poll","publisher":"Anadolu via A News","url":"https://www.anews.com.tr/europe/2026/09/14/le-pen-maintains-clear-lead-in-2027-french-presidential-race-poll","published":"2026-09-14","quote":"A Toluna Harris Interactive survey showed Le Pen getting between 33% and 36% of first-round voting intentions, depending on the scenario tested"},{"id":"s2","title":"Le Pen maintains clear lead in 2027 French presidential race: Poll","publisher":"Anadolu via A News","url":"https://www.anews.com.tr/europe/2026/09/14/le-pen-maintains-clear-lead-in-2027-french-presidential-race-poll","published":"2026-09-14","quote":"against former Prime Minister Gabriel Attal by 56% to 44%, and against Philippe by 55% to 45%."},{"id":"s3","title":"Le Pen maintains clear lead in 2027 French presidential race: Poll","publisher":"Anadolu via A News","url":"https://www.anews.com.tr/europe/2026/09/14/le-pen-maintains-clear-lead-in-2027-french-presidential-race-poll","published":"2026-09-14","quote":"was backed by between 16% and 17% of respondents across the scenarios in which he was included."},{"id":"s3b","title":"Le Pen maintains clear lead in 2027 French presidential race: Poll","publisher":"Anadolu via A News","url":"https://www.anews.com.tr/europe/2026/09/14/le-pen-maintains-clear-lead-in-2027-french-presidential-race-poll","published":"2026-09-14","quote":"The survey puts her ahead of Melenchon by 67% to 33%"},{"id":"s4","title":"France 2027 presidential election polls: who could face Le Pen?","publisher":"Connexion France","url":"https://www.connexionfrance.com/news/france-2027-presidential-vote-polls-show-tight-race-for-second-place/817132","published":"2026-09-24","quote":"He is currently polling at between 17% to 19%, gaining votes from the centrist bloc"},{"id":"s5","title":"France 2027 presidential election polls: who could face Le Pen?","publisher":"Connexion France","url":"https://www.connexionfrance.com/news/france-2027-presidential-vote-polls-show-tight-race-for-second-place/817132","published":"2026-09-24","quote":"So far, he is the only candidate who has polled ahead of Ms Le Pen in a direct run-off."},{"id":"s6","title":"France 2027 presidential election polls: who could face Le Pen?","publisher":"Connexion France","url":"https://www.connexionfrance.com/news/france-2027-presidential-vote-polls-show-tight-race-for-second-place/817132","published":"2026-09-24","quote":"He is currently polling between 10% and 13%, enough to place third or fourth but never second."},{"id":"s7","title":"France 2027 presidential election polls: who could face Le Pen?","publisher":"Connexion France","url":"https://www.connexionfrance.com/news/france-2027-presidential-vote-polls-show-tight-race-for-second-place/817132","published":"2026-09-24","quote":"he fails to poll above 14%, often leaving him fourth and never second."},{"id":"s8","title":"France 2027 presidential election polls: who could face Le Pen?","publisher":"Connexion France","url":"https://www.connexionfrance.com/news/france-2027-presidential-vote-polls-show-tight-race-for-second-place/817132","published":"2026-09-24","quote":"typically receiving around 8% of the vote share, but as much as 10% in cases where Mr Attal runs instead of Mr Philippe"},{"id":"s9","title":"2022 French presidential election","publisher":"Wikipedia","url":"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_French_presidential_election","published":"2026-09-26","quote":"Macron was re-elected with 58.55% of the vote to 41.45% for Le Pen in the second round of the election."},{"id":"s10b","title":"2022 French presidential election","publisher":"Wikipedia","url":"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_French_presidential_election","published":"2026-09-26","quote":"Jean-Luc Mélenchon La France Insoumise 7,712,520 21.95"},{"id":"s10","title":"1995 French presidential election","publisher":"Wikipedia","url":"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995_French_presidential_election","published":"2026-09-26","quote":"he held an advantage of 14 points over Chirac (32% against 18% for the first round)."},{"id":"s11","title":"France's right-wing leader Marine Le Pen cleared to run in 2027 election, but under conditions she's rejected","publisher":"CBS News","url":"https://www.cbsnews.com/news/france-marine-le-pen-right-wing-leader-cleared-run-presidential-election/","published":"2026-07-07","quote":"the appeals court reduced that time to 45 months, with 30 suspended and 15 to be served."},{"id":"s11b","title":"France's right-wing leader Marine Le Pen cleared to run in 2027 election, but under conditions she's rejected","publisher":"CBS News","url":"https://www.cbsnews.com/news/france-marine-le-pen-right-wing-leader-cleared-run-presidential-election/","published":"2026-07-07","quote":"It was assumed that Le Pen would cede her presidential ambitions to her party's 30-year-old president, Jordan Bardella, if she was barred from standing."},{"id":"s12","title":"2027 French presidential election","publisher":"Wikipedia","url":"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2027_French_presidential_election","published":"2026-09-26","quote":"Prime Minister of France (2017-2020); Mayor of Le Havre (2010-2017; 2020-present); Deputy (2012-2017)"},{"id":"s13","title":"2027 French presidential election","publisher":"Wikipedia","url":"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2027_French_presidential_election","published":"2026-09-26","quote":"with more than 73% voting in favour of backing Retailleau outright."},{"id":"s14","title":"Le Pen says she'll run for French presidency next year despite court-ordered monitor","publisher":"NPR","url":"https://www.npr.org/2026/07/08/g-s1-132467/le-pen-court-ordered-monitor","published":"2026-07-08","quote":"The highest court previously said it would be able to rule before the presidential election, with the first round in April"}],"hash":"387f3e24d6ed5eb661c462b748149c6c5f4d72da49c0696d9b65a2fdbbe541dc"}],"faqs":[{"question":"Who will win the French presidential election 2027?","answer":"As of September 26, 2026, TPG rates Marine Le Pen the most likely winner at 42 percent, followed by Edouard Philippe at 24 percent and Jordan Bardella, who would run only if Le Pen is forced out, at 6 percent. Le Pen leads first-round polls with 33 to 36 percent, but her runoff lead over Philippe is about 10 points and the far right has never won a French runoff."},{"question":"When is the 2027 French presidential election?","answer":"The first round is scheduled for Sunday, April 18, 2027. If no candidate wins a majority, the top two meet in a runoff on Sunday, May 2, 2027. President Emmanuel Macron cannot run because he has served two consecutive terms. The election could be held earlier only if the presidency fell vacant."},{"question":"Can Marine Le Pen run in 2027?","answer":"Yes, as things stand. On July 7, 2026, the Paris appeals court upheld her embezzlement conviction but cut her ban from office to 45 months, with 30 suspended, which left her eligible. She declared her candidacy the same night. She still faces a year under electronic monitoring, which she is appealing to the Court of Cassation, and that court has said it can rule before the election."},{"question":"Who is leading the French election polls?","answer":"Marine Le Pen of the National Rally leads every first-round poll, with 33 to 36 percent in September Harris Interactive scenarios. The race for second place is between Edouard Philippe, at 17 to 19 percent, and Jean-Luc Melenchon, at 16 to 17 percent. In runoff polls Le Pen beats Philippe 55 to 45, Attal 56 to 44 and Melenchon 67 to 33."},{"question":"Will Jordan Bardella run for president instead of Le Pen?","answer":"Only if Le Pen is forced out. She has declared and named Bardella, the 30-year-old National Rally president, as her intended prime minister. Pollsters have found the two score about the same, so a late switch would not sink the party's chances. We give Bardella a 6 percent chance of winning, reflecting the risk that the Court of Cassation ruling complicates her campaign."}],"resolved":null,"url":"https://www.thepoliticalgroup.com/forecasts/who-will-win-the-2027-french-presidential-election"},{"kind":"field","slug":"who-will-be-uk-prime-minister-on-june-30-2027","question":"Who will be UK prime minister on June 30, 2027?","short":"UK prime minister on June 30, 2027","pillar":"international","topics":["europe","us-allies"],"created":"2026-09-26","resolution":{"criteria":"Resolves to the person holding the office of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom at 11:59 p.m. London time on June 30, 2027, as shown on the official GOV.UK list of prime ministers and confirmed by wire reports. A caretaker who remains in office pending a successor counts as the prime minister.","deadline":"2027-06-30","judgedBy":"GOV.UK and Number 10 records, confirmed by BBC and wire reports"},"whyItMatters":"Britain is America's closest intelligence and defence partner, and whoever runs Downing Street sets London's line on Ukraine, NATO spending, trade talks with Washington and the pound.","impact":[{"audience":"U.S. investors and markets","effect":"Gilt yields jumped when Andy Burnham moved to challenge Keir Starmer, because investors expect him to borrow more. A stable Burnham premiership through mid-2027 means those worries play out through budgets, while a sudden change of leader would bring a new round of bond market volatility."},{"audience":"U.S. national security","effect":"Burnham has kept Labour's defence line and made early trips to Ukraine and Washington. A snap election that brought in Nigel Farage or Kemi Badenoch would reopen questions about Ukraine aid, China policy and defence spending."},{"audience":"U.S. exporters","effect":"Trade talks and the digital services tax are live issues between London and Washington. Continuity under Burnham keeps the current negotiating team; a change of government would reset them."},{"audience":"Americans living or traveling in the UK","effect":"Little changes day to day, but a leadership crisis or snap election would bring months of policy uncertainty on taxes, housing and immigration rules."}],"versions":[{"version":1,"published":"2026-09-26T08:10:07Z","cutoff":"2026-09-26","probability":0.93,"range":[0.86,0.97],"call":"Almost certainly still Andy Burnham","headline":"As of September 26, 2026, Andy Burnham is 93 percent likely to still be UK prime minister on June 30, 2027. He took office on July 20 with nominations from 94 percent of Labour MPs, leads rivals as best prime minister by 22 points, and no general election is due before 2029.","lenses":{"psychology":["Burnham spent years building a case that he was Labour's leader in waiting, and he took power in the most emphatic way possible: a by-election win with a 9,200 majority, then 379 MP nominations and no opponent. That gives Labour MPs a strong face-saving reason not to turn on him: they chose him almost unanimously two months ago, and replacing him within a year would admit a second mistake after Starmer. His main internal rival, Wes Streeting, ruled himself out and took the defence brief, which binds him to the government.","The pressure points are external. Bond investors read Burnham as leaning left, and gilt yields jumped when he moved against Starmer. His first Budget is the moment when markets test him, and the October 2022 crisis showed that a market revolt can end a premiership fast. His public behavior so far is cautious: he backtracked on his earlier comment about not being in hock to the bond market, a sign he knows the audience cost of spooking lenders."],"history":["Reference class: prime ministers who took office between general elections since 1955, from Anthony Eden through Rishi Sunak. Of 10, 9 were still in office about 11 months later. The only one who was not, Liz Truss, stepped down on her fiftieth day after a market crisis triggered by her first fiscal statement. That puts the base rate near 0.90.","The closest analogue is Gordon Brown in 2007, who also took over mid-term, unopposed, with a record share of MP nominations. Brown survived to the next election despite a rough first year, a snap-election climbdown and a coup attempt. The analogy breaks on the polls: Brown began with a big Labour lead, while Burnham's Labour is on only 23 percent in YouGov, barely ahead of Reform UK and the Conservatives, and Labour lost nearly 1,500 councillors in May 2026."],"statistics":["Start from the 0.90 base rate. Adjust up 4 points because Burnham's mandate inside the party is the strongest on record, his net approval is positive when most leaders are negative, and there is no scheduled general election before the resolution date, so Farage or Badenoch could only take over through a snap election that Burnham controls. Adjust down 1 point for the first-Budget market risk, the Truss channel, and the English local elections in May 2027.","That gives about 0.93. The remaining 0.07 splits into roughly 0.04 for an unplanned Labour succession (resignation for any reason, including health or scandal) and 0.03 for a snap election that produces a different prime minister. Kalshi prices a Burnham departure announcement before July 1, 2027 at about 6 cents, which implies about 0.94 that he stays, almost identical to our number."]},"betweenTheLines":[{"type":"costly","signal":"Burnham gave Wes Streeting, once seen as his main leadership rival, the defence secretary job.","read":"Bringing the most likely challenger into cabinet is a classic way to bind him to the government's fate. It lowers the odds of an organized leadership challenge in the first year."},{"type":"personnel","signal":"His first cabinet removed several Starmer allies, including Rachel Reeves and David Lammy, and brought back Angela Rayner as housing secretary.","read":"A clean break from the Starmer circle means the people with most reason to resent him are now outside government. Backbench grievance is a risk, but the deposed ministers lack a candidate to rally behind."},{"type":"tone","signal":"YouGov found Burnham's net favourability fell six points to +7 in September and called it a possible end of the honeymoon.","read":"The mood is cooling but still positive, which is rare for a sitting prime minister. It points to a harder second year, not a crisis before mid-2027."},{"type":"sequencing","signal":"Within two months of taking office Burnham visited Ukraine and met President Trump, who publicly praised him as a natural business person.","read":"Putting foreign policy and the Washington relationship first is how new prime ministers build an image of authority before their first Budget. A warm first meeting with Trump removes one source of early pressure and lets him focus on the domestic tests that actually threaten him."}],"baseRate":{"value":0.9,"label":"of UK prime ministers who took office between general elections since 1955 were still in office 11 months later (9 of 10)","n":10,"reference":"Computed by TPG from the ten mid-term successions since 1955 (Eden, Macmillan, Douglas-Home, Callaghan, Major, Brown, May, Johnson, Truss, Sunak). Only Truss left within a year.","sourceIds":["s8"]},"analogues":[{"case":"Gordon Brown succeeds Tony Blair unopposed","year":"2007","similarity":"A mid-term Labour succession with no contest and a record share of MP nominations.","outcome":"Brown survived nearly three years to the 2010 election despite plots against him.","breaks":"Brown started with a strong poll lead; Burnham's Labour is in a three-way tie with Reform and the Conservatives."},{"case":"Liz Truss and the mini-budget crisis","year":"2022","similarity":"A new prime minister whom bond markets distrusted, facing a first fiscal statement.","outcome":"Truss stepped down on her fiftieth day after gilt yields spiked.","breaks":"Truss won a divided membership vote and lacked MP support; Burnham has 94 percent of Labour MPs and has already softened his bond market rhetoric."}],"scenarios":[{"name":"Burnham remains prime minister through June 2027","probability":0.93,"trigger":"The first Budget passes without a market crisis and Labour MPs hold firm through the May 2027 local elections."},{"name":"Burnham leaves and another Labour MP takes over","probability":0.04,"trigger":"Resignation for any reason, such as a market crisis, a scandal or health, followed by a fast Labour succession."},{"name":"A snap election produces a new prime minister","probability":0.03,"trigger":"Burnham calls an early election to seek his own mandate and loses to Reform UK or the Conservatives."}],"signposts":[{"signal":"10-year gilt yields jump sharply after the first Burnham Budget","direction":"down","effect":"-5 to -10 points"},{"signal":"Labour falls to third place in several national polls","direction":"down","effect":"-3 points"},{"signal":"Burnham announces a snap general election","direction":"down","effect":"-20 points or more, depending on the polls at the time"},{"signal":"Budget passes with stable markets and Labour keeps a poll lead into 2027","direction":"up","effect":"+3 points"}],"market":{"source":"Kalshi","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxburnhamout","probability":0.94,"asOf":"2026-09-26","gapRead":"Kalshi has no direct contract on who is prime minister on June 30, 2027. Its contract on Burnham announcing his departure before July 1, 2027 last traded at 6 cents, so we show the implied 0.94 for him staying. We are one point lower because a departure can happen without a prior announcement, for example through a snap election defeat."},"field":[{"name":"Andy Burnham","party":"Labour","role":"Prime Minister of the United Kingdom since July 20, 2026","probability":0.93,"experienceYears":25,"record":[{"label":"Labour leadership nominations, July 2026","value":"379 MPs, elected unopposed","sourceId":"s1"},{"label":"Makerfield by-election, June 18, 2026","value":"Won by more than 9,200 votes","sourceId":"s2"},{"label":"Prior offices","value":"MP for Leigh 2001 to 2017; Mayor of Greater Manchester 2017 to 2026","sourceId":"s3"},{"label":"Best prime minister lead (Opinium)","value":"22 points over Badenoch and Farage","sourceId":"s6"}],"case":"He has the strongest internal mandate of any modern Labour leader, the only positive net rating among party leaders, and full control over the timing of the next election.","risk":"A bond market revolt around his first Budget, the path that ended Liz Truss's premiership, is the most plausible route to an early exit."},{"name":"Nigel Farage","party":"Reform UK","role":"Leader of Reform UK and MP for Clacton","probability":0.02,"record":[{"label":"Office","value":"Reform UK leader and MP for Clacton since 2024","sourceId":"s9"},{"label":"YouGov voting intention, Sept. 20 to 21","value":"Reform on 21%, its lowest since January 2025","sourceId":"s4"}],"case":"Reform has led many polls over the past year, so any snap election would make Farage a serious contender.","risk":"No election is due before 2029 and Burnham has no reason to call one while Reform is falling."},{"name":"Kemi Badenoch","party":"Conservative","role":"Leader of the Opposition and Leader of the Conservative Party","probability":0.01,"record":[{"label":"Office","value":"Conservative leader since 2024","sourceId":"s10"},{"label":"YouGov voting intention, Sept. 20 to 21","value":"Conservatives on 21%","sourceId":"s4"}],"case":"The Conservatives are level with Reform in the latest YouGov poll, so she would lead the main alternative government in a snap election.","risk":"She can only become prime minister through an election before June 2027 that nobody expects."},{"name":"Wes Streeting","party":"Labour","role":"Defence Secretary","probability":0.01,"record":[{"label":"Cabinet role","value":"Former health secretary, appointed to defence by Burnham","sourceId":"s11"}],"case":"He was seen as Burnham's main rival and would be a leading candidate in any sudden Labour succession.","risk":"He ruled himself out of the 2026 contest and is now bound into Burnham's cabinet."},{"name":"Angela Rayner","party":"Labour","role":"Housing Secretary, former Deputy Prime Minister","probability":0.01,"record":[{"label":"Cabinet role","value":"Returned as housing secretary in July 2026","sourceId":"s7"},{"label":"Past resignation","value":"Resigned in September 2025 over her tax affairs","sourceId":"s12"}],"case":"A former deputy leader with a strong base among members, she would be a contender in any unexpected vacancy.","risk":"Her 2025 resignation over tax affairs remains a liability in a leadership race."},{"name":"Someone else","party":null,"role":"Any person not listed, including another Labour cabinet minister such as Shabana Mahmood or John Healey","probability":0.02,"record":[],"case":"A sudden Labour vacancy could produce a caretaker or consensus figure from elsewhere in the cabinet.","risk":"It requires Burnham to leave office within nine months, which is historically rare."}],"stats":[{"value":"379","label":"Labour MPs nominated Burnham for leader, making him the only eligible candidate","sourceId":"s1"},{"value":"9,200","label":"votes: Burnham's majority in the June 2026 Makerfield by-election","sourceId":"s2"},{"value":"23%","label":"Labour's share in YouGov's Sept. 20 to 21 poll, with Reform and the Conservatives both on 21%","sourceId":"s4"},{"value":"+7","label":"Burnham's net favourability in September, down six points but still positive","sourceId":"s5"},{"value":"22 points","label":"Burnham's lead over both Badenoch and Farage as best prime minister (Opinium)","sourceId":"s6"}],"sources":[{"id":"s1","title":"Premiership of Andy Burnham","publisher":"Wikipedia","url":"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Premiership_of_Andy_Burnham","published":"2026-09-26","quote":"Burnham received 379 nominations and was the only eligible candidate, as he was nominated by over 80% of all Labour MPs."},{"id":"s2","title":"2026 Makerfield by-election","publisher":"Wikipedia","url":"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Makerfield_by-election","published":"2026-09-26","quote":"Burnham won the by-election with almost 25,000 votes and a majority of over 9,200 votes"},{"id":"s3","title":"Andy Burnham","publisher":"Wikipedia","url":"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andy_Burnham","published":"2026-09-26","quote":"was Mayor of Greater Manchester from 2017 to 2026; before that he was MP for Leigh from 2001 to 2017 and held several Cabinet positions."},{"id":"s4","title":"Voting intention, 20-21 September 2026: Lab 23%, Con 21%, Ref 21%, Grn 14%, LD 12%","publisher":"YouGov","url":"https://yougov.com/en-gb/articles/55596-voting-intention-20-21-september-2026-lab-23-con-21-ref-21-grn-14-ld-12","published":"2026-09-22","quote":"with Labour on 23% of the vote and the Conservatives and Reform UK both on 21%."},{"id":"s5","title":"Political favourability ratings, September 2026","publisher":"YouGov","url":"https://yougov.com/en-gb/articles/55550-political-favourability-ratings-september-2026","published":"2026-09-14","quote":"this leaves Burnham with a net favourability rating in September of +7, which is down six points on last month."},{"id":"s6","title":"Voting intention: 2nd September 2026","publisher":"Opinium","url":"https://www.opinium.com/resource-center/voting-intention-2nd-september-2026/","published":"2026-09-05","quote":"Burnham also maintains substantial Best Prime Minister advantages, leading both Badenoch and Farage by 22 points."},{"id":"s7","title":"Andy Burnham's cabinet: Who's in and who's out?","publisher":"ITV News","url":"https://www.itv.com/news/2026-07-21/andy-burnhams-cabinet-whos-in-and-whos-out","published":"2026-07-21","quote":"appointing John Healey as chancellor and Angela Rayner as housing secretary, while removing several allies of his predecessor, Sir Keir Starmer."},{"id":"s8","title":"Liz Truss","publisher":"Wikipedia","url":"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liz_Truss","published":"2026-09-26","quote":"making her the shortest-serving prime minister in British history."},{"id":"s9","title":"Nigel Farage","publisher":"Wikipedia","url":"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nigel_Farage","published":"2026-09-26","quote":"is a British politician who has been the Leader of Reform UK and a Member of Parliament for Clacton since 2024."},{"id":"s10","title":"Kemi Badenoch","publisher":"Wikipedia","url":"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kemi_Badenoch","published":"2026-09-26","quote":"is a British politician who has served as Leader of the Opposition and Leader of the Conservative Party since 2024."},{"id":"s11","title":"Andy Burnham's cabinet: Who's in and who's out?","publisher":"ITV News","url":"https://www.itv.com/news/2026-07-21/andy-burnhams-cabinet-whos-in-and-whos-out","published":"2026-07-21","quote":"The former health secretary has now been appointed to lead defence."},{"id":"s12","title":"Andy Burnham's cabinet: Who's in and who's out?","publisher":"ITV News","url":"https://www.itv.com/news/2026-07-21/andy-burnhams-cabinet-whos-in-and-whos-out","published":"2026-07-21","quote":"Former deputy leader and deputy PM Rayner returns to frontline government in her old role of housing secretary after resigning in September 2025"},{"id":"s13","title":"Gilt yields soar as Burnham gears up to challenge Starmer","publisher":"CNBC","url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/15/gilt-yields-burnham-challenge-starmer-labour-uk.html","published":"2026-05-15","quote":"the yield on the benchmark 10-year gilt traded more than 17 basis points higher at 5.165%."},{"id":"s14","title":"2026 Labour Party leadership crisis","publisher":"Wikipedia","url":"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Labour_Party_leadership_crisis","published":"2026-09-26","quote":"At the 2026 local elections, Labour lost control of 35 councils and nearly 1,500 councillors (roughly 60% of seats up for election)."}],"hash":"482cd0410058c4ab7245036495ef756d285d8fc93240f60ae7c7e79ee9a7ad7b"}],"faqs":[{"question":"Who is the UK prime minister now?","answer":"Andy Burnham has been Prime Minister of the United Kingdom since July 20, 2026. He replaced Keir Starmer, who announced his resignation on June 22 after heavy Labour losses in the May local elections. Burnham returned to Parliament by winning the Makerfield by-election on June 18 and was elected Labour leader unopposed with 379 MP nominations."},{"question":"Will Andy Burnham still be prime minister in 2027?","answer":"Very likely. As of September 26, 2026, TPG gives Burnham a 93 percent chance of still being prime minister on June 30, 2027. He has the backing of 94 percent of Labour MPs, a positive approval rating and a 22-point lead as best prime minister. The main risk is a bond market reaction to his first Budget."},{"question":"When is the next UK general election?","answer":"The next general election must be held by August 2029, five years after Parliament first met following the July 2024 election. The prime minister can call one earlier. Burnham has not signalled an early vote, and with Labour only narrowly ahead of Reform UK and the Conservatives in the polls, a snap election before mid-2027 is unlikely."},{"question":"Could Nigel Farage become prime minister before 2029?","answer":"Only if an early general election is called and Reform UK wins it. TPG puts Farage's chance of being prime minister on June 30, 2027 at 2 percent. Reform fell to 21 percent in YouGov's September 20 to 21 poll, its lowest since January 2025, and Burnham leads Farage by 22 points as best prime minister in Opinium's polling."}],"resolved":null,"url":"https://www.thepoliticalgroup.com/forecasts/who-will-be-uk-prime-minister-on-june-30-2027"}]}