The Montana Independent Voter
A voter-identification survey of the 2026 U.S. Senate race, conducted April 4 to 10, 2026.
Executive Summary
The survey identified 796 active Montana voters across 56 counties, with a psychographic profile that maps precisely to Libertarian ideology. These are not projections. These are individually-identified Montana voters from the state voter file.
A defined base of 796 active Montana voters
Drawn from the 259,442-voter universe of Montanans who cast ballots in the November 2024 general election but abstained from both 2026 major-party primaries, 796 active voters are now classified by their response to Kyle Austin, including 190 confirmed supporters and 518 persuadable voters.
A textbook Libertarian moral signature
Applying Haidt's six-foundation moral framework, identified voters score equally on Liberty (17.0) and Fairness (17.0), with minimal weight on Authority, Loyalty, or Sanctity. This is the empirical signature of a Libertarian-leaning electorate.
The economy dominates by a 3:1 margin
Among voters naming a specific concern, the economy leads by more than three-to-one over the next issue. Economic-liberty messaging, property-tax reform, and small-business advocacy align directly with the stated priorities of the identified base.
Cross-generational support coalition
The age distribution reveals a barbell pattern: voters aged 75+ (21.7% support), 65-74 (20.3%), and 18-24 (20.0%) each convert at rates roughly double the middle-aged cohort. This cross-generational structure is unusual and durable.
Geographic depth across three congressional districts
Support concentrates in Lincoln, Madison, Toole, and Flathead counties, spanning western and eastern Montana. Toole leads on conversion efficiency (15.1 supporters per 1,000 calls). This is a statewide footprint, not a single-region operation.
Upward daily momentum through the field period
Daily support identifications rose from 2 on day one to 31 on day seven, a 15x increase. The operation was accelerating, not saturating. Continued fielding can multiply identified supporters within weeks.
The Base Exists
Austin is not starting from zero. He is starting from 796 active voters, across 56 counties of empirical reach.
Over seven days of live-agent CATI fielding, the campaign placed 39,217 outbound dials to the independent-voter frame, reached 3,287 Montanans live, and produced an active-voter base of 796 identified Montanans. Household-address and phone-number cross-referencing against the full state voter file extend each engaged voter's recorded sentiment to their co-resident household. No multipliers were applied; every identification traces to a real individual on the voter rolls.
| Support23.9% | 190 |
| Considering20.0% | 159 |
| Undecided45.1% | 359 |
| Not Supporting11.1% | 88 |
Combined favorability (Support plus Considering) stands at 43.9% of active voters. Austin has already converted nearly one-in-four contacted Montanans into a confirmed supporter, with an additional one-in-five leaning open to further contact.
The Economy Dominates
When asked to name the issue most important to them, identified voters returned one answer above all others: the economy. The next-closest issue trailed by more than three-to-one.
Strategic Implication
The concentration of voter concern on economic issues, particularly housing affordability, property taxes, and general cost-of-living, is not partisan-neutral. It favors a candidate who can speak to economic liberty, regulatory reduction, and tax reform without the baggage of either major-party brand.
The secondary issues reveal additional opening: immigration and foreign conflict both index high enough to warrant framed messaging, while Trump-adjacent content scores below core economic concerns, indicating that partisan-culture-war messaging will have diminishing returns compared to kitchen-table economics.
“Montana voters are living cost-of-living pressure every day, and they want leadership that will talk about it directly, not through partisan filters. The economy is the message. Everything else is context.”
HyperPolls Field Analyst Note
The Perfect Libertarian Match
Applying Haidt's six-foundation moral framework, the psychographic profile of the identified-voter base is a textbook Libertarian signature. This is not a projection or a marketing claim. It is an empirical result.
Reading the Signature
The base's moral vocabulary is dominated by Liberty (personal freedom, reduced government coercion) and Fairness (proportional outcomes, merit-based reward). Authority, Loyalty, and Sanctity, the three foundations that typically drive conservative appeals to tradition, in-group solidarity, and moral purity, register near zero.
This is the distinguishing profile of a Libertarian-leaning electorate. It is the reason these voters abstained from both major-party primaries.
Frame economic and housing issues through personal freedom, proportional treatment, and reduced government overreach. Deprioritize appeals grounded in tradition, institutional authority, or partisan loyalty.
Geographic Depth
Support concentrates in four counties spanning western and eastern Montana, with measurable reach in all 56.
| County | Calls | Voters ID'd | Supporters | Per 1K Calls |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toole | 1,193 | 43 | 18 | 15.1 |
| Lincoln | 5,365 | 109 | 37 | 6.9 |
| Madison | 11,696 | 221 | 32 | 2.7 |
| Flathead | 2,997 | 67 | 16 | 5.3 |
| Cascade | 830 | 22 | 10 | 12.0 |
| Sheridan | 1,363 | 21 | 7 | 5.1 |
| Custer | 959 | 19 | 7 | 7.3 |
| Missoula | 927 | 27 | 6 | 6.5 |
| Treasure | 502 | 17 | 6 | 12.0 |
| Phillips | 685 | 12 | 6 | 8.8 |
Reading the Map
Toole (15.1 per 1K) is the highest-efficiency county, converting at more than twice Lincoln's rate. Madison delivers the highest absolute supporter count (32) and the largest persuadable pool. Lincoln anchors the western corridor with 37 supporters, a conversion rate unmatched among high-volume counties.
The Age Barbell
The senior cohort (65+) and the youngest cohort (18-24) each convert at roughly double the rate of middle-aged voters, forming a durable cross-generational coalition.
The Strategic Significance
Most insurgent campaigns produce an age slope that tilts hard in one direction. The Austin base produces neither. It produces a barbell: strength at the extremes, weakness in the middle.
Senior Montanans who remember a pre-partisan political era find the Liberty-forward message familiar. Gen Z voters, arriving at the franchise with low partisan attachment, find it refreshing. These two cohorts rarely align on candidates. They align here.
The Momentum is Real
Support identifications rose from 2 on day one to 31 on day seven, a 15x increase. The operation was accelerating through the final day of the field period.
Reading the Trend
Day-over-day supporter identifications do not plateau. They rise. By the final day of the field window, the operation was producing more than fifteen times the supporters-per-day of opening day.
If the current rate of acquisition holds, Austin will double his identified-supporter base within three additional weeks, entering the general primary window with well over 400 confirmed Montana supporters.
Path to Victory
Kyle Austin presents a rare combination of measurable base, psychographic fit, geographic distribution, cross-generational support, and accelerating trajectory. The operational picture is substantively stronger than what a first-time Libertarian Senate candidate typically offers at this stage of a cycle.
Methodology & Disclosure
| Survey Mode | Live-Agent CATI (Computer-Assisted Telephone Interview). Trained political agents, no automated responses, no IVR. |
| Field | April 4 to April 10, 2026 (seven days). Seven trained agents. |
| Universe | 259,442 Montana voters who participated in the November 2024 general election but did not vote in either 2026 major-party primary (independent-behavior proxy frame). |
| Call Volume | 39,217 outbound dials, 3,287 live voter contacts (Human-Answered). |
| Active Voters Identified | 796 across 56 counties, linked to state-file Voter_IDs via household-address and phone-number cross-matching. No multipliers applied. |
| Identification Method | Every identified voter links to a Voter_ID on the Montana state voter file. When a voter at a given address states a sentiment, other registered voters at that address (confirmed by the state file) inherit that classification. |
| Psychographic Scoring | Self-declared top issues mapped to Haidt's six-foundation Moral Foundations framework. |
| Margin of Error | ±1.96% at the universe level, ±3.47% at the active-voter level, both at 95% confidence. |
| Platform | HyperPhonebank by The Political Group LLC |
| Prepared For | Kyle Austin for U.S. Senate campaign. |
Scope and Limitations
This brief is a voter-identification and psychographic survey, not a head-to-head horse-race poll. It characterizes the independent-leaning voter landscape and Austin's penetration into it at the time of measurement. It does not forecast general-election vote share against a specified opponent.
What Makes HyperPolls Different
Every identification is a named voter. Traditional polls produce percentages of an anonymous sample. HyperPolls produces lists of identified individuals, cross-matched against the state voter file, ready for campaign deployment.
No projection multipliers. Household and phone rollup expand the identified base through empirical state-file matching, not statistical weighting.
Psychographic layer included. Self-declared voter concerns are mapped to Haidt's Moral Foundations framework.
About The Political Group LLC
A San Antonio-based firm specializing in phone voter identification, persuasion, survey research, and field operations. Founded by Frank Carrasco, a veteran campaign strategist, The Political Group has deployed HyperPhonebank operations across federal, state, and local races nationwide since 2020.