Underdog

Everyone tells you who will win.
We show how the other side can.

For every candidate who starts behind: the exact number of votes between them and a win, the precincts where those votes live, and the plan to reach them before the last ballot is cast. Built from official returns. Honest about the odds.

Minnesota

9 races. 9 paths.

The six races where a plan moves the odds most.

See all 9 Minnesota races ›Minnesota board ›

MN-02
How Eric Pratt wins
31,102 net votes to find.
See the path ›
MN-01
How Jake Johnson wins
12,871 net votes to find.
See the path ›
MN-06
How Doug Chapin wins
35,566 net votes to find.
See the path ›
Minnesota U.S. Senate
How Michele Tafoya wins
70,726 net votes to find.
See the path ›
MN-08
What it would take for Trina Swanson
46,177 net votes to find.
See the path ›
MN-03
What it would take for Tyler Bass
65,082 net votes to find.
See the path ›
Virginia

12 races. 12 paths.

The six races where a plan moves the odds most.

See all 12 Virginia races ›Virginia board ›

VA-05
How Tom Perriello wins
10,147 net votes to find.
See the path ›
VA-07
How Doug Ollivant wins
12,528 net votes to find.
See the path ›
VA-01
How Shannon Taylor wins
28,321 net votes to find.
See the path ›
VA-02
How Elaine Luria wins
5,935 net votes to find.
See the path ›
VA-10
What it would take for Dave Beckwith
24,793 net votes to find.
See the path ›
Virginia U.S. Senate
What it would take for Bert Mizusawa
769,760 net votes to find.
See the path ›
California

42 races. 42 paths.

The six races where a plan moves the odds most.

See all 42 California races ›California board ›

CA-48
How Jim Desmond wins
6,322 net votes to find.
See the path ›
CA-22
How David G. Valadao wins
2,091 net votes to find.
See the path ›
CA-01
What it would take for James Gallagher
25,384 net votes to find.
See the path ›
CA-03
How Robb Tucker wins
17,447 net votes to find.
See the path ›
CA-45
How Chuong V. Vo wins
4,669 net votes to find.
See the path ›
CA-49
What it would take for Armen Kurdian
22,576 net votes to find.
See the path ›
Texas

39 races. 39 paths.

The six races where a plan moves the odds most.

See all 39 Texas races ›Texas board ›

TX-15
How Monica De La Cruz wins
7,158 net votes to find.
See the path ›
TX-23
How Katy Padilla Stout wins
10,194 net votes to find.
See the path ›
Texas U.S. Senate
How Ken Paxton wins
265,529 net votes to find.
See the path ›
TX-34
How Eric Flores wins
3,399 net votes to find.
See the path ›
TX-28
How Tano E. Tijerina wins
2,378 net votes to find.
See the path ›
TX-35
How Johnny Garcia wins
16,348 net votes to find.
See the path ›
Montana

2 races. 2 paths.

The six races where a plan moves the odds most.

See all 2 Montana races ›Montana board ›

MT-01
How Sam Forstag wins
5,008 net votes to find.
See the path ›
MT-02
What it would take for Brian Miller
54,482 net votes to find.
See the path ›
Ohio

16 races. 16 paths.

The six races where a plan moves the odds most.

See all 16 Ohio races ›Ohio board ›

OH-07
How Max Miller wins
32,755 net votes to find.
See the path ›
OH-10
How Kristina Knickerbocker wins
18,773 net votes to find.
See the path ›
OH-15
How Don Leonard wins
12,819 net votes to find.
See the path ›
Ohio U.S. Senate
How Jon Husted wins
198,324 net votes to find.
See the path ›
OH-01
How Eric Conroy wins
13,087 net votes to find.
See the path ›
OH-09
How Marcy Kaptur wins
29,857 net votes to find.
See the path ›
Arizona

8 races. 8 paths.

The six races where a plan moves the odds most.

See all 8 Arizona races ›Arizona board ›

AZ-02
How Jonathan Nez wins
22,753 net votes to find.
See the path ›
AZ-06
How Juan Ciscomani wins
9,713 net votes to find.
See the path ›
AZ-01
How Jay Feely wins
7,418 net votes to find.
See the path ›
AZ-04
What it would take for Zuhdi Jasser
25,070 net votes to find.
See the path ›
AZ-08
What it would take for Bernadette Greene Placentia
42,286 net votes to find.
See the path ›
AZ-05
What it would take for Elizabeth Lee
61,302 net votes to find.
See the path ›
New Mexico

4 races. 4 paths.

The six races where a plan moves the odds most.

See all 4 New Mexico races ›New Mexico board ›

NM-02
How Greg Cunningham wins
5,635 net votes to find.
See the path ›
NM-03
What it would take for Martin Zamora
30,033 net votes to find.
See the path ›
New Mexico U.S. Senate
What it would take for Larry Marker
117,811 net votes to find.
See the path ›
NM-01
What it would take for Didi Okpareke
33,248 net votes to find.
See the path ›
Wyoming

2 races. 2 paths.

The six races where a plan moves the odds most.

See all 2 Wyoming races ›Wyoming board ›

Wyoming U.S. Senate
What it would take for James Byrd
102,839 net votes to find.
See the path ›
WY-AL
What it would take for Lisa Kinney
95,951 net votes to find.
See the path ›
North Carolina

15 races. 15 paths.

The six races where a plan moves the odds most.

See all 15 North Carolina races ›North Carolina board ›

NC-14
How LaKesha Womack wins
23,891 net votes to find.
See the path ›
NC-07
How Kimberly Hardy wins
20,155 net votes to find.
See the path ›
North Carolina U.S. Senate
How Michael Whatley wins
351,927 net votes to find.
See the path ›
NC-09
How Richard Ojeda wins
11,382 net votes to find.
See the path ›
NC-01
How Laurie Buckhout wins
10,781 net votes to find.
See the path ›
NC-11
How Jamie Ager wins
16,587 net votes to find.
See the path ›
Georgia

15 races. 15 paths.

The six races where a plan moves the odds most.

See all 15 Georgia races ›Georgia board ›

Georgia U.S. Senate
How Mike Collins wins
330,919 net votes to find.
See the path ›
GA-07
How Tony Kozycki wins
11,102 net votes to find.
See the path ›
GA-02
What it would take for Matt Day
23,055 net votes to find.
See the path ›
GA-01
What it would take for Amanda Hollowell
53,707 net votes to find.
See the path ›
GA-12
What it would take for Ceretta Smith
47,527 net votes to find.
See the path ›
GA-03
What it would take for Maura Keller
100,717 net votes to find.
See the path ›
Florida

28 races. 28 paths.

The six races where a plan moves the odds most.

See all 28 Florida races ›Florida board ›

FL-14
How Mike Beltran wins
26,560 net votes to find.
See the path ›
Florida U.S. Senate
How Angie Nixon wins
411,890 net votes to find.
See the path ›
FL-13
How Leela Gray wins
12,114 net votes to find.
See the path ›
FL-08
What it would take for Jennifer Jenkins
32,988 net votes to find.
See the path ›
FL-25
How Scott Singer wins
5,466 net votes to find.
See the path ›
FL-22
What it would take for Pia Dandiya
33,229 net votes to find.
See the path ›
Colorado

9 races. 9 paths.

The six races where a plan moves the odds most.

See all 9 Colorado races ›Colorado board ›

CO-03
How Dwayne L. Romero wins
12,731 net votes to find.
See the path ›
CO-08
How Manny Rutinel wins
5,012 net votes to find.
See the path ›
CO-05
What it would take for Jessica Killin
35,327 net votes to find.
See the path ›
Colorado U.S. Senate
What it would take for Mark Baisley
350,035 net votes to find.
See the path ›
CO-07
What it would take for Tim Bennett
55,579 net votes to find.
See the path ›
CO-04
What it would take for Eileen Laubacher
64,831 net votes to find.
See the path ›
Maryland

8 races. 8 paths.

The six races where a plan moves the odds most.

See all 8 Maryland races ›Maryland board ›

MD-06
How Robin Ficker wins
16,394 net votes to find.
See the path ›
MD-01
What it would take for Dan Schwartz
41,142 net votes to find.
See the path ›
MD-02
What it would take for Dave Wallace
53,509 net votes to find.
See the path ›
MD-03
What it would take for Berney Flowers
66,517 net votes to find.
See the path ›
MD-04
What it would take for George McDermott
127,943 net votes to find.
See the path ›
MD-05
What it would take for Chris Chaffee
92,875 net votes to find.
See the path ›
Oklahoma

6 races. 6 paths.

The six races where a plan moves the odds most.

See all 6 Oklahoma races ›Oklahoma board ›

OK-05
How Jena Nelson wins
14,332 net votes to find.
See the path ›
Oklahoma U.S. Senate
What it would take for N'Kiyla Jasmine Thomas
341,950 net votes to find.
See the path ›
OK-01
What it would take for John Croisant
49,163 net votes to find.
See the path ›
OK-02
What it would take for Brandon Wade
111,464 net votes to find.
See the path ›
OK-03
What it would take for Suzie Byrd
81,898 net votes to find.
See the path ›
OK-04
What it would take for Mitchell Jacob
66,984 net votes to find.
See the path ›
Louisiana

2 races. 2 paths.

The six races where a plan moves the odds most.

See all 2 Louisiana races ›Louisiana board ›

Louisiana U.S. Senate
How Jamie Davis wins
71,358 net votes to find.
See the path ›
LA-02
What it would take for Peter Williams
81,246 net votes to find.
See the path ›
Kentucky

7 races. 7 paths.

The six races where a plan moves the odds most.

See all 7 Kentucky races ›Kentucky board ›

Kentucky U.S. Senate
How Charles Booker wins
148,109 net votes to find.
See the path ›
KY-06
What it would take for Zach Dembo
39,360 net votes to find.
See the path ›
KY-01
What it would take for Drew Williams
104,752 net votes to find.
See the path ›
KY-02
What it would take for Megan Wingfield
88,165 net votes to find.
See the path ›
KY-03
What it would take for Maria Rodriguez
69,249 net votes to find.
See the path ›
KY-04
What it would take for Melissa Strange
65,534 net votes to find.
See the path ›
Tennessee

10 races. 10 paths.

The six races where a plan moves the odds most.

See all 10 Tennessee races ›Tennessee board ›

TN-05
How Chaz Molder wins
18,268 net votes to find.
See the path ›
TN-09
How Justin J. Pearson wins
8,404 net votes to find.
See the path ›
Tennessee U.S. Senate
What it would take for Marquita Bradshaw
403,753 net votes to find.
See the path ›
TN-01
What it would take for Kristi Burke
111,844 net votes to find.
See the path ›
TN-02
What it would take for Michaela Barnett
69,274 net votes to find.
See the path ›
TN-03
What it would take for Anna Golladay
74,594 net votes to find.
See the path ›
Washington

10 races. 10 paths.

The six races where a plan moves the odds most.

See all 10 Washington races ›Washington board ›

WA-03
How Marie Gluesenkamp Perez wins
17,190 net votes to find.
See the path ›
WA-05
How Carmela Conroy wins
19,015 net votes to find.
See the path ›
WA-08
How Spencer Meline wins
21,516 net votes to find.
See the path ›
WA-06
What it would take for Teresa Fox
56,968 net votes to find.
See the path ›
WA-10
What it would take for Chris D. Chung
43,308 net votes to find.
See the path ›
WA-01
What it would take for Mary Silva
77,716 net votes to find.
See the path ›
Oregon

7 races. 7 paths.

The six races where a plan moves the odds most.

See all 7 Oregon races ›Oregon board ›

OR-06
How David Russ wins
15,236 net votes to find.
See the path ›
OR-04
How Monique DeSpain wins
24,794 net votes to find.
See the path ›
Oregon U.S. Senate
What it would take for David Brock Smith
226,833 net votes to find.
See the path ›
OR-05
How Patti Adair wins
4,370 net votes to find.
See the path ›
OR-01
What it would take for Barbara Kahl
116,461 net votes to find.
See the path ›
OR-02
What it would take for Chris Beck
103,541 net votes to find.
See the path ›
Michigan

14 races. 14 paths.

The six races where a plan moves the odds most.

See all 14 Michigan races ›Michigan board ›

Michigan U.S. Senate
How Mike Rogers wins
116,706 net votes to find.
See the path ›
MI-04
How Sean McCann wins
6,921 net votes to find.
See the path ›
MI-08
How Thomas J. Smith wins
21,130 net votes to find.
See the path ›
MI-07
How William Lawrence wins
7,577 net votes to find.
See the path ›
MI-10
How Christina Hines wins
4,254 net votes to find.
See the path ›
MI-01
What it would take for Callie Barr
75,130 net votes to find.
See the path ›
Delaware

2 races. 2 paths.

The six races where a plan moves the odds most.

See all 2 Delaware races ›Delaware board ›

Delaware U.S. Senate
What it would take for Michael Katz
35,209 net votes to find.
See the path ›
DE-AL
What it would take for Joseph Arminio
40,330 net votes to find.
See the path ›
West Virginia

3 races. 3 paths.

The six races where a plan moves the odds most.

See all 3 West Virginia races ›West Virginia board ›

West Virginia U.S. Senate
What it would take for Rachel Fetty Anderson
186,041 net votes to find.
See the path ›
WV-01
What it would take for Vince George
89,941 net votes to find.
See the path ›
WV-02
What it would take for Ace Parsi
94,205 net votes to find.
See the path ›
South Carolina

8 races. 8 paths.

The six races where a plan moves the odds most.

See all 8 South Carolina races ›South Carolina board ›

SC-07
How John Vincent wins
13,681 net votes to find.
See the path ›
South Carolina U.S. Senate
How Annie Andrews wins
35,017 net votes to find.
See the path ›
SC-01
What it would take for Nancy Lacore
41,373 net votes to find.
See the path ›
SC-02
What it would take for Zyon Khalifa
43,670 net votes to find.
See the path ›
SC-03
What it would take for Eunice Lehmacher
107,182 net votes to find.
See the path ›
SC-04
What it would take for Courtney McClain
55,963 net votes to find.
See the path ›
Arkansas

5 races. 5 paths.

The six races where a plan moves the odds most.

See all 5 Arkansas races ›Arkansas board ›

Arkansas U.S. Senate
How Hallie Shoffner wins
67,416 net votes to find.
See the path ›
AR-02
How French Hill wins
9,313 net votes to find.
See the path ›
AR-01
What it would take for Terri Yarbrough Green
98,070 net votes to find.
See the path ›
AR-03
What it would take for Robb Ryerse
68,951 net votes to find.
See the path ›
AR-04
What it would take for James Russell
93,984 net votes to find.
See the path ›
Nevada

4 races. 4 paths.

The six races where a plan moves the odds most.

See all 4 Nevada races ›Nevada board ›

NV-02
How Teresa Benitez-Thompson wins
6,272 net votes to find.
See the path ›
NV-04
How Cody Whipple wins
7,640 net votes to find.
See the path ›
NV-01
How Carrie Buck wins
10,384 net votes to find.
See the path ›
NV-03
How Marty O'Donnell wins
5,594 net votes to find.
See the path ›
Why we do this

The campaigns that need the math the most never get it.

Party committees model the races they have already decided to fund. Everyone else runs on instinct. We publish the plan for free, and when a campaign is ready to work it, HyperPhonebank puts professional callers on exactly those voters.

Ask for your raceHow HyperPhonebank works ›

287 plans published. More states are coming.