The TPG Forecast Ledger
Political forecasts you can check.
What Congress, the courts, the markets, voters and foreign governments are likely to do next, what it means for you, and the odds. Every call is time-stamped, locked, sourced, and scored in public when it resolves.
- Open forecasts
- 33
- Sources cited
- 223
- Resolved and scored
- 0
- Edited after publishing
- 0
Closing soonest
The next questions to resolve and be scored.
Will Lula win Brazil's 2026 presidential election?
46%
Toss-up
Will the Fed raise interest rates at its October 27-28, 2026 meeting?
68%
Likely
Will the Supreme Court grant the Trump administration's request to pause the ruling blocking fast third-country deportations, in whole or in part, by October 31, 2026?
62%
Likely
Will gas prices be above $4.50 a gallon on Election Day 2026?
33%
Unlikely
Who will win
Presidents, nominees, speakers and heads of institutions: every contender with odds and a sourced record.
Who will be Senate Majority Leader when the 120th Congress convenes in January 2027?
40%
Chuck Schumer
Who will be Speaker of the House when the 120th Congress convenes in January 2027?
84%
Hakeem Jeffries
Who will win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
17%
Gavin Newsom
Who will win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
55%
JD Vance
Every forecast
Search, filter and sort the whole ledger.
33 of 33 forecasts. Click a column to sort; Market is the prediction market price recorded with the latest version.
Domestic politics
Congress, the courts, the White House, the economy and elections: the pending decisions that change American life.
Will the Fed raise interest rates at its October 27-28, 2026 meeting?
68%
Likely
Will the Supreme Court grant the Trump administration's request to pause the ruling blocking fast third-country deportations, in whole or in part, by October 31, 2026?
62%
Likely
Will gas prices be above $4.50 a gallon on Election Day 2026?
33%
Unlikely
Will U.S. inflation be 4% or higher in the November 2026 CPI report?
45%
Toss-up
Will a new five-year farm bill become law by December 31, 2026?
17%
Very unlikely
Will Democrat James Talarico defeat Ken Paxton in the 2026 Texas U.S. Senate race?
52%
Toss-up
Will the CLARITY Act crypto market structure bill become law in 2026?
6%
Remote
Will the FY2027 defense bill (NDAA) become law by December 31, 2026?
75%
Likely
Will the U.S. government shut down in December 2026, when the current stopgap expires?
24%
Unlikely
Will President Trump invoke the Insurrection Act to deploy troops inside the United States before January 1, 2027?
8%
Very unlikely
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2026 Ohio governor's race?
45%
Toss-up
Will Democrats win control of the U.S. House in the 2026 midterm elections?
88%
Very likely
Will Republicans keep control of the U.S. Senate in the 2026 midterm elections?
42%
Toss-up
Will the U.S. raise tariffs on Canadian cars to 50% by January 15, 2027?
40%
Unlikely
Who will be Senate Majority Leader when the 120th Congress convenes in January 2027?
40%
Chuck Schumer
Who will be Speaker of the House when the 120th Congress convenes in January 2027?
84%
Hakeem Jeffries
Will the Supreme Court rule that the Second Amendment protects AR-15 rifles, striking down the Illinois and Connecticut bans, by July 3, 2027?
74%
Likely
Will the Supreme Court rule by July 3, 2027 that Arizona can require documentary proof of citizenship from voters who register with the state form?
72%
Likely
Who will win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
17%
Gavin Newsom
Who will win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
55%
JD Vance
International politics
Elections, governments, conflicts and crises abroad, and what each outcome means at home.
Will Lula win Brazil's 2026 presidential election?
46%
Toss-up
Who will be the next UN Secretary-General?
45%
Rebeca Grynspan
Will Netanyahu still be Israel's prime minister on March 1, 2027?
48%
Toss-up
Who will be New Zealand's prime minister after the 2026 election?
50%
Christopher Luxon
Who will win the 2027 French presidential election?
42%
Marine Le Pen
Who will be UK prime minister on June 30, 2027?
93%
Andy Burnham
Relations between countries
Rivalries, alliances and flashpoints between nations, tracked as escalation ladders with a probability on every rung.
Will the U.S. and China agree to an AI incident hotline by the end of 2026?
36%
Unlikely
Will the U.S. or Israel strike Iranian territory again by December 31, 2026?
68%
Likely
Will the U.S. and Mexico reach an interim USMCA trade agreement by the end of 2026?
37%
Unlikely
Will the U.S.-China trade truce be extended past January 10, 2027?
80%
Very likely
Will a NATO member invoke Article 4 by June 30, 2027?
20%
Very unlikely
Will China launch a large-scale military exercise around Taiwan by June 30, 2027?
40%
Unlikely
Will a general Russia-Ukraine ceasefire take effect by June 30, 2027?
17%
Very unlikely
Browse by topic
One method, every question
01
Psychology
What the decision makers need: incentives, audiences, face, and their record of bluffing versus following through.
02
History
The reference class, the closest parallel, and exactly where the parallel breaks.
03
Statistics
Start from the base rate, adjust in the open, land on one number with an honest range.
04
Between the lines
Costly signals over cheap talk, what was left out, who got promoted, what came first.
Rules we never break: no hindsight (nothing dated after the cutoff), no private or client information, no edits after publishing, every statistic traced to a quoted source. Read the full method.
About the ledger
What is the TPG Forecast Ledger?
The TPG Forecast Ledger is The Political Group's public record of political forecasts. Each forecast states a probability, the date its evidence stops (the cutoff), the reasoning through psychology, history and statistics, and every source. Published versions are never edited, and each question is scored in public when it resolves.
How are TPG political forecasts made?
Every forecast runs the same three lenses in order. Psychology asks what the decision makers need. History finds the reference class and the closest parallel. Statistics starts from a base rate and adjusts to a final probability. A between-the-lines read weighs costly signals against cheap talk. Only sources dated on or before the cutoff are used.
How accurate are TPG forecasts?
Every resolved question is scored with the Brier score, the standard accuracy measure for probability forecasts, where 0 is perfect and 0.25 is what a permanent 50 percent guess earns. Scores and a calibration chart are published on the track record page, including the misses.
Can I use TPG forecast data?
Yes. The full ledger, every version of every forecast with its cutoff and lock hash, is free to download as JSON or CSV under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. Cite The Political Group and link to the forecast page.
Ledger last updated September 26, 2026. Analysis, not investment or legal advice.