Upset Brief · GA-03 · Maura Keller (D) vs. Brian Jack (R), incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 29.3-point national wave.

0%
odds today
<1%
odds with the plan
100,717
net votes to find
37
days left; voting starts October 13
Where
  1. 01
    Newnan Centre (Coweta County)
    Starting line Jack +14. 5.3% split their ticket.
    +322
  2. 02
    North Hampton (Henry County)
    Starting line Keller +29. 2.7% split their ticket. About 1,399 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +194
  3. 03
    Madras (Coweta County)
    Starting line Jack +39. 4.8% split their ticket.
    +171
  4. 04
    Canongate (Coweta County)
    Starting line Jack +48. 5.7% split their ticket.
    +155
  5. 05
    Mirror Lake Elementary (Douglas County)
    Starting line Keller +17. 3.6% split their ticket. About 1,415 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +150
  6. 06
    Sandy Creek (Fayette County)
    Starting line Keller +28. 3.9% split their ticket. About 815 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +142

The top 12 precincts carry 22% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    6,701 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Jack today.
    +6,701
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 16,892 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Keller's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +1,507
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Keller's way.
    +229

Plus a national shift of 29.3 points of margin (92,279 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Keller wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Jack.
  2. In North Hampton (Henry County) and Central (Coweta County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 29.3 points toward Keller's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    191 precincts, R² 0.996, 22 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -128,985 to -55,845 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30
    Keller $87,576 cash on hand; Jack $1,142,625.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    21,355 households, 64,066 dials, about 3,357 live conversations: an estimated $7,406 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $7,406 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

A program on this list with a dashboard you can watch daily: conversations, voter IDs and ballots chased, precinct by precinct.

The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Georgia races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Georgia Secretary of State precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.