Upset Brief · GA-09 · Caitlyn Gegen (D) vs. Andrew Clyde (R), incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 34.6-point national wave.

0%
odds today
0%
odds with the plan
108,289
net votes to find
37
days left; voting starts October 13
Where
  1. 01
    Lawrenceville M (Gwinnett County)
    Starting line Gegen +47. 3.6% split their ticket. About 1,732 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +341
  2. 02
    West Jackson (Jackson County)
    Starting line Clyde +57. 4.7% split their ticket.
    +252
  3. 03
    Rabun County (Rabun County)
    Starting line Clyde +59. 5.7% split their ticket.
    +241
  4. 04
    Friendship I (Hall County)
    Starting line Clyde +50. 7.1% split their ticket.
    +223
  5. 05
    Central Jackson (Jackson County)
    Starting line Clyde +59. 4.4% split their ticket.
    +219
  6. 06
    Goodwins C (Gwinnett County)
    Starting line Gegen +26. 4.2% split their ticket. About 1,433 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +181

The top 12 precincts carry 28% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    7,197 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Clyde today.
    +7,197
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 10,268 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Gegen's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +1,140
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Gegen's way.
    +235

Plus a national shift of 34.6 points of margin (99,718 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Gegen wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Clyde.
  2. In Lawrenceville M (Gwinnett County) and Lawrenceville F (Gwinnett County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 34.6 points toward Gegen's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    145 precincts, R² 0.994, 9 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -132,858 to -66,198 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30
    Gegen $4,670 cash on hand; Clyde $176,253.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    17,479 households, 52,438 dials, about 2,748 live conversations: an estimated $6,930 at published rates.
For the campaign

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Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $6,930 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

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The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Georgia races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Georgia Secretary of State precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.