Upset Brief · West Virginia U.S. Senate · Rachel Fetty Anderson (D) vs. Shelley Moore Capito (R), incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 34.1-point national wave.

0%
odds today
0%
odds with the plan
186,041
net votes to find
36
days left; voting starts October 21
Where
  1. 01
    Kanawha County
    Starting line Capito +11. 2,005 persuadable voters leaning Capito; 27,849 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +2,723
  2. 02
    Cabell County
    Starting line Capito +18. 956 persuadable voters leaning Capito; 13,264 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +1,272
  3. 03
    Putnam County
    Starting line Capito +40. 883 persuadable voters leaning Capito; 10,846 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +943
  4. 04
    Raleigh County
    Starting line Capito +48. 737 persuadable voters leaning Capito; 11,779 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +839
  5. 05
    Monongalia County
    Starting line Capito +3. 335 persuadable voters leaning Capito; 15,131 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +834
  6. 06
    Wayne County
    Starting line Capito +46. 609 persuadable voters leaning Capito; 5,818 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +638

The top 12 counties carry 56% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    15,670 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Capito today.
    +15,670
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 13,008 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Fetty Anderson's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +1,145
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the counties that lean Fetty Anderson's way.
    +1,948

Plus a national shift of 34.1 points of margin (167,278 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Fetty Anderson wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Capito.
  2. In the precincts Fetty Anderson's side carries in Kanawha County and Monongalia County, 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. It would take a national shift of about 34.1 points toward Fetty Anderson's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    1,645 precincts, R² 0.965, 265 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -223,779 to -109,968 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30
    Anderson $22,129 cash on hand; Capito $4,377,201.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    34,440 households, 103,319 dials, about 5,414 live conversations: an estimated $11,086 at published rates.
For the campaign

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The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All West Virginia races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official West Virginia Secretary of State precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 27, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.