China and Taiwan: forecasts and odds

Pressure, deterrence and the odds of blockade or conflict across the Taiwan Strait.

All china and taiwan forecasts

QuestionOdds
Will China launch a large-scale military exercise around Taiwan by June 30, 2027?40% Unlikely

Will China launch a large-scale military exercise around Taiwan by June 30, 2027?

No material change: as of October 12 we still put the chance of a large, announced PLA exercise around Taiwan by June 30, 2027 at 40 percent. Beijing answered Lai's October 10 National Day speech with criticism, not a drill, and planned Trump and Xi meetings in November and December keep summitry in charge for now.

Will China launch a large-scale military exercise around Taiwan by June 30, 2027?

40%

Unlikely

Closes Jun 30, 2027v2

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