Will China launch a large-scale military exercise around Taiwan by June 30, 2027?
We put the chance of a large, announced PLA exercise around Taiwan by June 30, 2027 at 40 percent. Beijing held seven such drills from 2022 to 2025 but none in 2026, as Xi courts Trump through summits and a trade truce. A released U.S. arms package or a Lai speech could end the pause quickly.
Will China launch a large-scale military exercise around Taiwan by June 30, 2027?
40%
Unlikely
Closes Jun 30, 2027v1