Track record

1 forecast has resolved. Mean Brier score on our final calls: 0.144 (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Our final call landed on the right side of 50% on 1 of 1.

Resolved

1

Brier, final call

0.144

Brier, time-weighted

0.144

Right side of 50%

1 of 1

0%0%50%50%100%100%60 to 80%: predicted 62%, happened 100% (1 questions)Our probabilityHow often it happened

Calibration

When we say 70 percent, it should happen about 70 percent of the time. Each dot is a probability band; dots on the dashed line mean our numbers meant what they said. Dot size grows with the number of questions in the band.

QuestionFinal callOutcomeBrierTime-weighted
Will the Supreme Court grant the Trump administration's request to pause the ruling blocking fast third-country deportations, in whole or in part, by October 31, 2026?62%YES Sep 29, 20260.1440.144

Next to be scored

Will Lula win Brazil's 2026 presidential election?

12%

Very unlikely

Closes Oct 25, 2026Down 34 pts

Will the Fed raise interest rates at its October 27-28, 2026 meeting?

18%

Very unlikely

Closes Oct 28, 2026Down 50 pts

Will gas prices be above $4.50 a gallon on Election Day 2026?

14%

Very unlikely

Closes Nov 3, 2026Down 19 pts

Will U.S. inflation be 4% or higher in the November 2026 CPI report?

33%

Unlikely

Closes Dec 10, 2026Down 12 pts

How scoring works is on the method page. Raw data: CSV, JSON.