Track record
No forecast has resolved yet. The ledger opened on September 26, 2026; the first questions close in the coming weeks and will be scored here, hits and misses alike.
Resolved
0
Brier, final call
n/a
Brier, time-weighted
n/a
Right side of 50%
n/a
Next to be scored
Will Lula win Brazil's 2026 presidential election?
46%
Toss-up
Closes Oct 25, 2026v1
Will the Fed raise interest rates at its October 27-28, 2026 meeting?
68%
Likely
Closes Oct 28, 2026v1
Will the Supreme Court grant the Trump administration's request to pause the ruling blocking fast third-country deportations, in whole or in part, by October 31, 2026?
62%
Likely
Closes Oct 31, 2026v1
Will gas prices be above $4.50 a gallon on Election Day 2026?
33%
Unlikely
Closes Nov 3, 2026v1
How scoring works is on the method page. Raw data: CSV, JSON.