Track record
8 forecasts have resolved. Mean Brier score on our final calls: 0.149 (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Our final call landed on the right side of 50% on 7 of 8.
Resolved
8
Brier, final call
0.149
Brier, time-weighted
0.162
Right side of 50%
7 of 8
Calibration
When we say 70 percent, it should happen about 70 percent of the time. Each dot is a probability band; dots on the dashed line mean our numbers meant what they said. Dot size grows with the number of questions in the band.
| Question | Final call | Outcome | Brier | Time-weighted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Supreme Court grant the Trump administration's request to pause the ruling blocking fast third-country deportations, in whole or in part, by October 31, 2026? | 62% | YES Sep 29, 2026 | 0.144 | 0.144 |
| Will gas prices be above $4.50 a gallon on Election Day 2026? | 10% | NO Nov 5, 2026 | 0.010 | 0.050 |
| Will Democrat James Talarico defeat Ken Paxton in the 2026 Texas U.S. Senate race? | 54% | YES Nov 5, 2026 | 0.212 | 0.216 |
| Will Susan Collins win reelection in the 2026 Maine Senate race against Troy Jackson? | 42% | NO Nov 5, 2026 | 0.176 | 0.176 |
| Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2026 Ohio governor's race? | 34% | NO Nov 5, 2026 | 0.116 | 0.152 |
| Will Democrats win control of the U.S. House in the 2026 midterm elections? | 92% | YES Nov 5, 2026 | 0.006 | 0.010 |
| Will Republicans keep control of the U.S. Senate in the 2026 midterm elections? | 34% | NO Nov 5, 2026 | 0.116 | 0.139 |
| Will the U.S. and China agree to an AI incident hotline by the end of 2026? | 36% | YES Sep 26, 2026 | 0.410 | 0.410 |
Next to be scored
Will the Fed raise interest rates at its December 8-9, 2026 meeting?
75%
Likely
Will U.S. inflation be 4% or higher in the November 2026 CPI report?
33%
Unlikely
Will a new five-year farm bill become law by December 31, 2026?
16%
Very unlikely
Will the CLARITY Act crypto market structure bill become law in 2026?
7%
Remote
How scoring works is on the method page. Raw data: CSV, JSON.