Government funding and shutdowns: forecasts and odds

Deadlines, stopgaps and shutdown odds for the federal budget.

All government funding and shutdowns forecasts

QuestionOdds
Will the U.S. government shut down in December 2026, when the current stopgap expires?24% Unlikely

Will the U.S. government shut down in December 2026, when the current stopgap expires?

We put the odds of a federal government shutdown starting between December 12 and December 31, 2026 at 24 percent. Funding runs out December 11, after the midterms. The biggest reason it probably holds: another short stopgap into 2027 is cheap for both parties, and this Congress just passed one 370 to 48.

Will the U.S. government shut down in December 2026, when the current stopgap expires?

24%

Unlikely

Closes Dec 31, 2026v1

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