Government funding and shutdowns: forecasts and odds

Will the U.S. government shut down in December 2026, when the current stopgap expires?

We now put the chance of a federal shutdown starting between December 12 and December 31, 2026 at 27 percent, up from 24, as of our October 12 cutoff. Traders have priced more risk and our window is wider than theirs, but another cheap short stopgap into 2027 remains the likeliest exit when Congress returns.