Will a NATO member invoke Article 4 by June 30, 2027?
We estimate a 20 percent chance a NATO member formally invokes Article 4 by June 30, 2027. Russian incursions are more frequent than ever, including a September 23 helicopter crossing into Poland, but no ally has requested Article 4 since September 2025, even after a Russian cruise missile landed 100 kilometres inside Poland.
Will a NATO member invoke Article 4 by June 30, 2027?
20%
Very unlikely
Closes Jun 30, 2027v1