Will a general Russia-Ukraine ceasefire take effect by June 30, 2027?
We put the chance of a general Russia-Ukraine ceasefire taking effect by June 30, 2027 at 17 percent. Washington is reviving trilateral talks, but the Kremlin has rejected even a limited energy ceasefire and still demands Ukrainian withdrawal from Donbas. Short truces in 2026 lasted three days or less.
Will a general Russia-Ukraine ceasefire take effect by June 30, 2027?
17%
Very unlikely
Closes Jun 30, 2027v1