Tariff rates, trade deals and the prices, jobs and markets they move.
We put the chance that a 50% U.S. tariff on Canadian cars is in effect by January 15, 2027 at 40%, as of September 26, 2026. Trump has carried out most of his dated tariff threats against Canada, but auto tariffs have repeatedly been softened, and a deal that would have cut the rate to 15% came close in August.
Will the U.S. raise tariffs on Canadian cars to 50% by January 15, 2027?
40%
Unlikely
We give a 37 percent chance that the U.S. and Mexico conclude an interim USMCA agreement by December 31, 2026, as of September 26. The list of U.S. demands has shrunk from 54 to 14, but Washington's demand for 50 percent U.S. content in cars remains unresolved, and every earlier Mexico deal deadline passed without a deal.
Will the U.S. and Mexico reach an interim USMCA trade agreement by the end of 2026?
37%
Unlikely
We put the chance the U.S.-China trade truce is extended past January 10, 2027, or replaced by a broader deal, at 80%, as of September 26, 2026. Both sides have extended every formal truce deadline since 2018 because each holds a choke point the other cannot afford to trigger: Chinese rare earths against American chips and farm purchases.
Will the U.S.-China trade truce be extended past January 10, 2027?
80%
Very likely
See every forecast, how we forecast, and our track record.