Question 1

Will the U.S. raise tariffs on Canadian cars to 50% by January 15, 2027?

Accepted Answer

No material change: we still put the chance that a 50% U.S. tariff on Canadian cars is in effect by January 15, 2027 at 40%, as of October 12, 2026. Talks remain frozen, but no proclamation setting the auto rate has appeared seven weeks after the threat, so the January 1 date is still a lever Washington can withdraw cheaply.

Question 2

Will the U.S. and Mexico reach an interim USMCA trade agreement by the end of 2026?

Accepted Answer

We now give a 34 percent chance that the U.S. and Mexico conclude an interim USMCA agreement by December 31, 2026, down from 37, as of October 12. The fourth negotiating round, expected in September, slipped into October with no confirmed date, eating into a short window while the autos tariff dispute stays open.

Question 3

Will the U.S.-China trade truce be extended past January 10, 2027?

Accepted Answer

We put the chance the U.S.-China trade truce is extended past January 10, 2027, or replaced by a broader deal, at 81%, up from 80%, as of October 12, 2026. Both sides still hold choke points neither can afford to trigger, and the Board of Trade tariff lists released September 27 add a modest sign the process continues.

Question	Odds	Closes
Will the U.S. raise tariffs on Canadian cars to 50% by January 15, 2027?	40% Unlikely	Jan 15, 2027
Will the U.S. and Mexico reach an interim USMCA trade agreement by the end of 2026?	34% Unlikely	Dec 31, 2026
Will the U.S.-China trade truce be extended past January 10, 2027?	81% Very likely	Jan 10, 2027

Trade and tariffs: forecasts and odds

All trade and tariffs forecasts

Will the U.S. raise tariffs on Canadian cars to 50% by January 15, 2027?

Will the U.S. and Mexico reach an interim USMCA trade agreement by the end of 2026?

Will the U.S.-China trade truce be extended past January 10, 2027?