The United States and its allies: forecasts and odds

NATO, Europe, Japan, Canada and the terms of American alliances.

All the united states and its allies forecasts

QuestionOdds
Will the U.S. raise tariffs on Canadian cars to 50% by January 15, 2027?40% Unlikely
Will a NATO member invoke Article 4 by June 30, 2027?20% Very unlikely
Will a general Russia-Ukraine ceasefire take effect by June 30, 2027?15% Very unlikely
Who will be the next UN Secretary-General?46% Toss-up
Who will be UK prime minister on June 30, 2027?93% Almost certain

Will the U.S. raise tariffs on Canadian cars to 50% by January 15, 2027?

No material change: we still put the chance that a 50% U.S. tariff on Canadian cars is in effect by January 15, 2027 at 40%, as of October 12, 2026. Talks remain frozen, but no proclamation setting the auto rate has appeared seven weeks after the threat, so the January 1 date is still a lever Washington can withdraw cheaply.

Will the U.S. raise tariffs on Canadian cars to 50% by January 15, 2027?

40%

Unlikely

Closes Jan 15, 2027v2

Will a general Russia-Ukraine ceasefire take effect by June 30, 2027?

We now put the chance of a general Russia-Ukraine ceasefire taking effect by June 30, 2027 at 15 percent, down from 17, as of the October 12 cutoff. Time is running off the clock, Trump's October 11 energy ceasefire is a partial deal Moscow has not confirmed, and Ukraine reports Russian strikes on its grid continued.

Will a general Russia-Ukraine ceasefire take effect by June 30, 2027?

15%

Very unlikely

Closes Jun 30, 2027Down 2 pts

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