NATO, Europe, Japan, Canada and the terms of American alliances.
| Question | Odds |
|---|---|
| Will the U.S. raise tariffs on Canadian cars to 50% by January 15, 2027? | 40% Unlikely |
| Will a NATO member invoke Article 4 by June 30, 2027? | 20% Very unlikely |
| Will a general Russia-Ukraine ceasefire take effect by June 30, 2027? | 17% Very unlikely |
| Who will be the next UN Secretary-General? | 45% Toss-up |
| Who will be UK prime minister on June 30, 2027? | 93% Almost certain |
We put the chance that a 50% U.S. tariff on Canadian cars is in effect by January 15, 2027 at 40%, as of September 26, 2026. Trump has carried out most of his dated tariff threats against Canada, but auto tariffs have repeatedly been softened, and a deal that would have cut the rate to 15% came close in August.
Will the U.S. raise tariffs on Canadian cars to 50% by January 15, 2027?
40%
Unlikely
We estimate a 20 percent chance a NATO member formally invokes Article 4 by June 30, 2027. Russian incursions are more frequent than ever, including a September 23 helicopter crossing into Poland, but no ally has requested Article 4 since September 2025, even after a Russian cruise missile landed 100 kilometres inside Poland.
Will a NATO member invoke Article 4 by June 30, 2027?
20%
Very unlikely
We put the chance of a general Russia-Ukraine ceasefire taking effect by June 30, 2027 at 17 percent. Washington is reviving trilateral talks, but the Kremlin has rejected even a limited energy ceasefire and still demands Ukrainian withdrawal from Donbas. Short truces in 2026 lasted three days or less.
Will a general Russia-Ukraine ceasefire take effect by June 30, 2027?
17%
Very unlikely
As of September 26, 2026, Costa Rica's Rebeca Grynspan is the most likely next UN Secretary-General at 45 percent. She topped the Security Council's third straw poll with nine encourage votes, the minimum needed, but five members discouraged her and diplomats suspect two of those were veto holders China and Russia.
Who will be the next UN Secretary-General?
45%
Rebeca Grynspan
As of September 26, 2026, Andy Burnham is 93 percent likely to still be UK prime minister on June 30, 2027. He took office on July 20 with nominations from 94 percent of Labour MPs, leads rivals as best prime minister by 22 points, and no general election is due before 2029.
Who will be UK prime minister on June 30, 2027?
93%
Andy Burnham
See every forecast, how we forecast, and our track record.