United States and China: forecasts and odds

Trade, technology, Taiwan and summitry between the two largest economies.

All united states and china forecasts

QuestionOdds
Will the U.S. and China agree to an AI incident hotline by the end of 2026?36% Unlikely
Will the U.S.-China trade truce be extended past January 10, 2027?81% Very likely
Will China launch a large-scale military exercise around Taiwan by June 30, 2027?40% Unlikely

Will the U.S. and China agree to an AI incident hotline by the end of 2026?

We put the chance that the U.S. and China formally agree to an AI incident hotline by December 31, 2026 at 36 percent, as of September 26. Washington proposed it before the Washington summit, but Beijing's readouts endorsed only continued AI dialogue, and U.S.-China crisis channels usually take far longer than three months to agree.

Will the U.S. and China agree to an AI incident hotline by the end of 2026?

36%

Unlikely

Closes Dec 31, 2026Update duev1

Will China launch a large-scale military exercise around Taiwan by June 30, 2027?

No material change: as of October 12 we still put the chance of a large, announced PLA exercise around Taiwan by June 30, 2027 at 40 percent. Beijing answered Lai's October 10 National Day speech with criticism, not a drill, and planned Trump and Xi meetings in November and December keep summitry in charge for now.

Will China launch a large-scale military exercise around Taiwan by June 30, 2027?

40%

Unlikely

Closes Jun 30, 2027v2

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