Question 1

Will the U.S. and China agree to an AI incident hotline by the end of 2026?

Accepted Answer

We put the chance that the U.S. and China formally agree to an AI incident hotline by December 31, 2026 at 36 percent, as of September 26. Washington proposed it before the Washington summit, but Beijing's readouts endorsed only continued AI dialogue, and U.S.-China crisis channels usually take far longer than three months to agree.

Question 2

Will the U.S.-China trade truce be extended past January 10, 2027?

Accepted Answer

We put the chance the U.S.-China trade truce is extended past January 10, 2027, or replaced by a broader deal, at 81%, up from 80%, as of October 12, 2026. Both sides still hold choke points neither can afford to trigger, and the Board of Trade tariff lists released September 27 add a modest sign the process continues.

Question 3

Will China launch a large-scale military exercise around Taiwan by June 30, 2027?

Accepted Answer

No material change: as of October 12 we still put the chance of a large, announced PLA exercise around Taiwan by June 30, 2027 at 40 percent. Beijing answered Lai's October 10 National Day speech with criticism, not a drill, and planned Trump and Xi meetings in November and December keep summitry in charge for now.

Question	Odds	Closes
Will the U.S. and China agree to an AI incident hotline by the end of 2026?	36% Unlikely	Resolved YES
Will the U.S.-China trade truce be extended past January 10, 2027?	81% Very likely	Jan 10, 2027
Will China launch a large-scale military exercise around Taiwan by June 30, 2027?	40% Unlikely	Jun 30, 2027

United States and China: forecasts and odds

All united states and china forecasts

Will the U.S. and China agree to an AI incident hotline by the end of 2026?

Will the U.S.-China trade truce be extended past January 10, 2027?

Will China launch a large-scale military exercise around Taiwan by June 30, 2027?