United States and China: forecasts and odds

Trade, technology, Taiwan and summitry between the two largest economies.

All united states and china forecasts

QuestionOdds
Will the U.S. and China agree to an AI incident hotline by the end of 2026?36% Unlikely
Will the U.S.-China trade truce be extended past January 10, 2027?80% Very likely
Will China launch a large-scale military exercise around Taiwan by June 30, 2027?40% Unlikely

Will the U.S. and China agree to an AI incident hotline by the end of 2026?

We put the chance that the U.S. and China formally agree to an AI incident hotline by December 31, 2026 at 36 percent, as of September 26. Washington proposed it before the Washington summit, but Beijing's readouts endorsed only continued AI dialogue, and U.S.-China crisis channels usually take far longer than three months to agree.

Will the U.S. and China agree to an AI incident hotline by the end of 2026?

36%

Unlikely

Closes Dec 31, 2026v1

Will the U.S.-China trade truce be extended past January 10, 2027?

We put the chance the U.S.-China trade truce is extended past January 10, 2027, or replaced by a broader deal, at 80%, as of September 26, 2026. Both sides have extended every formal truce deadline since 2018 because each holds a choke point the other cannot afford to trigger: Chinese rare earths against American chips and farm purchases.

Will the U.S.-China trade truce be extended past January 10, 2027?

80%

Very likely

Closes Jan 10, 2027v1

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