Will the U.S. and Mexico reach an interim USMCA trade agreement by the end of 2026?
We now give a 34 percent chance that the U.S. and Mexico conclude an interim USMCA agreement by December 31, 2026, down from 37, as of October 12. The fourth negotiating round, expected in September, slipped into October with no confirmed date, eating into a short window while the autos tariff dispute stays open.
Will the U.S. and Mexico reach an interim USMCA trade agreement by the end of 2026?
34%
Unlikely
Closes Dec 31, 2026Down 3 pts