Upset Brief · GA-01 · Amanda Hollowell (D) vs. Jim Kingston (R)

A long shot on the math: it takes a 16.2-point national wave.

<1%
odds today
1%
odds with the plan
53,707
net votes to find
37
days left; voting starts October 13
Where
  1. 01
    Precinct 5-10C (Chatham County)
    Starting line Hollowell +80. 8.2% split their ticket. About 495 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +199
  2. 02
    Lyman Hall School (Liberty County)
    Starting line Hollowell +39. 6.8% split their ticket. About 955 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +190
  3. 03
    Victory Baptist (Liberty County)
    Starting line Hollowell +40. 7.1% split their ticket. About 847 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +176
  4. 04
    Upp (Glynn County)
    Starting line Hollowell +71. 6.4% split their ticket. About 540 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +170
  5. 05
    Precinct 8-08C (Chatham County)
    Starting line Hollowell +84. 6.0% split their ticket. About 508 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +170
  6. 06
    Precinct 6-11C (Chatham County)
    Starting line Hollowell +29. 4.5% split their ticket. About 1,136 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +168

The top 12 precincts carry 19% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    6,354 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Kingston today.
    +6,354
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 29,513 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Hollowell's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +4,081
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Hollowell's way.
    +195

Plus a national shift of 16.2 points of margin (43,077 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Hollowell wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Kingston.
  2. In Precinct 8-08C (Chatham County) and Precinct 5-03C (Chatham County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 16.2 points toward Hollowell's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    216 precincts, R² 0.996, 32 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -73,917 to -11,929 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30
    Hollowell $7,389 cash on hand; Kingston $294,093.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    29,518 households, 88,553 dials, about 4,640 live conversations: an estimated $9,871 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $9,871 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

A program on this list with a dashboard you can watch daily: conversations, voter IDs and ballots chased, precinct by precinct.

The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Georgia races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Georgia Secretary of State precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.