What it would take for Amanda Hollowell.
Kingston starts 20.1 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work can move about 10,630 net votes toward Hollowell, a 4.0-point gain. Winning outright would take a 16.2-point national wave on top of that. Here is the plan that makes Hollowell the one standing if one comes.
A long shot on the math: it takes a 16.2-point national wave.
133,313 votes.
That is half of the 266,624 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Hollowell stands today, and what is missing:
Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022 and 2024 results in this district (House, President, U.S. Senate, Governor). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.
<1% today. A wave changes that.
We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.
Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.
The gap closes three ways.
Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.
Who. 6,354 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Kingston today.
How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Hollowell needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Kingston.
Who. At least 29,513 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Hollowell's side wins at least 55 percent.
How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.
Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Hollowell's way.
How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.
Together: 10,630 net votes against a gap of 53,707. Still 43,077 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 16.2 points that no campaign controls.
12 precincts carry 19% of it.
Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.
- 01+199Precinct 5-10C (Chatham County)mobilizeStarting line Hollowell +80. 8.2% split their ticket. About 495 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 02+190Lyman Hall School (Liberty County)mobilizeStarting line Hollowell +39. 6.8% split their ticket. About 955 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 03+176Victory Baptist (Liberty County)mobilizeStarting line Hollowell +40. 7.1% split their ticket. About 847 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 04+170Upp (Glynn County)mobilizeStarting line Hollowell +71. 6.4% split their ticket. About 540 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 05+170Precinct 8-08C (Chatham County)mobilizeStarting line Hollowell +84. 6.0% split their ticket. About 508 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 06+168Precinct 6-11C (Chatham County)mobilizeStarting line Hollowell +29. 4.5% split their ticket. About 1,136 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 07+165City Auditorium 100 (Ware County)mobilizeStarting line Hollowell +44. 6.5% split their ticket. About 658 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 08+154Precinct 5-03C (Chatham County)mobilizeStarting line Hollowell +78. 4.8% split their ticket. About 524 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 09+146Precinct 7-04C (Chatham County)mobilizeStarting line Hollowell +48. 5.0% split their ticket. About 665 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 10+145Cssi (Glynn County)persuadeStarting line Kingston +46. 6.3% split their ticket.
- 11+145Precinct 5-05C (Chatham County)mobilizeStarting line Hollowell +84. 7.5% split their ticket. About 319 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 12+141Precinct 2-09C (Chatham County)mobilizeStarting line Hollowell +65. 4.1% split their ticket. About 469 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
The hidden path.
Precinct 5-10C (Chatham County) carries the most.
Precinct 5-10C (Chatham County) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 199. It sits at Hollowell +80 on our starting line, and 8.2 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.
Precinct 8-08C (Chatham County) is a turnout race.
Hollowell's side leads Precinct 8-08C (Chatham County) by about 84 points on our starting line, and it cast about 508 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (an estimate). Roughly that many of its 2024 voters sat out the last midterm; bringing enough of them back nets 149 votes there.
Spend it where it counts.
As of June 30, 2026, Kingston had $294K in cash on hand to Hollowell's $7,389. That is exactly why the plan puts every dollar on the few places listed here instead of the whole map.
The honest math.
Every lever at its historical ceiling moves 10,630 net votes. The gap is 53,707. That is the measure of what a strong campaign adds: 4.0 points of margin, and first position if the national mood breaks.
Where voters cross over.
Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Hollowell's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.
- Precincts
- 216
- Slope
- 0.939
- R²
- 0.996
- Residual SD
- 2.5 pts
- Crossover precincts
- 32
Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Hollowell's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.
Voting starts October 13.
- Now to October 5Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with Hollowell, with Kingston, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
- October 6 to 12Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 6,354 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before.
- October 13 to 23Bank the ballots
Advance in-person voting runs October 13 through October 30, and absentee ballots start going out October 5. Absentee ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on November 3. Chase every supporter's mail ballot request until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
- October 24 to November 2Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 29,513 of them live where Hollowell is favored. Absentee ballots must be received by the county election office by 7 p.m. on November 3. Applications must be received by October 23.
- November 3Election day
Polls are open 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. and photo ID is required. Georgia has no same-day registration. A candidate needs a majority; if no one reaches 50 percent plus one, the top two meet in a December 1 runoff. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.
No wishful thinking.
Official results in this district: the Republican nominee carried the 2024 House race by 24.0 points; Trump carried the 2024 presidential race by 15.8 points; Walker carried the 2022 U.S. Senate race by 13.2 points.
- Hollowell wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Kingston.
- In Precinct 8-08C (Chatham County) and Precinct 5-03C (Chatham County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
- The national environment moves about 16.2 points toward Hollowell's side between now and November 3.
- No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
4,640 conversations.
That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 88,553 dials to 29,518 households, before the last ballot is cast.
Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.
We run this list.
Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $9,871 at our published rates: 29,518 households, three attempts each.
Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.
Who is on the ballot.
Amanda Hollowell (D)
A Savannah organizer who serves as chief of campaigns at Color Of Change and previously was managing director of national organizing at When We All Vote; she has served on the boards of the League of Women Voters of Coastal Georgia and Reform Georgia and holds a bachelor's degree in American studies from the University of California, Berkeley.
Cash on hand $7,389 and $162,500 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.
Jim Kingston (R)
Raised in Savannah, he built a career in the insurance brokerage industry; he is the son of former U.S. Rep. Jack Kingston and won the 2026 Republican nomination with President Trump's endorsement.
Cash on hand $294,093 and $1,944,528 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.
What changed, and when.
We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.
- September 26, 2026Underdog plan published
Starting line: Kingston +20.1. Amanda Hollowell needs 53,707 net votes. Odds under 1% today, 1% with the plan.
Questions
Can Amanda Hollowell win Georgia's 1st Congressional District in 2026?
Only with help from the national environment. Campaign work can move about 10,630 net votes; the gap is 53,707. The rest would take a 16.2-point national shift.
Where are the votes Amanda Hollowell needs?
Ranked by net votes in the plan: Precinct 5-10C (Chatham County), Lyman Hall School (Liberty County), Victory Baptist (Liberty County), Upp (Glynn County), Precinct 8-08C (Chatham County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.
How many voters does Amanda Hollowell need to persuade?
About 3,177 voters who lean Jim Kingston today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 6,354 persuadable voters leaning Jim Kingston.
When does early voting start in Georgia in 2026?
Advance in-person voting in Georgia runs October 13 through October 30, 2026. The registration deadline is October 5, absentee ballot applications must be received by October 23, and absentee ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on Election Day. Georgia requires a majority to win; if no candidate reaches 50 percent plus one, the top two meet in a runoff on December 1.
Who made this analysis?
The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Georgia Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.
Method and sources
Precinct math from official Georgia Secretary of State returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.
Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.
- Georgia Secretary of State, election results
- Georgia Secretary of State, elections
- FEC candidate filings (OpenFEC)
- 2026 voter contact benchmarks (The Political Group)
Race coverage
- Wikipedia: Georgia's 1st congressional district
- Ballotpedia: Georgia's 1st Congressional District election, 2026
- Ballotpedia: Amanda Hollowell
- Atlanta Journal-Constitution: U.S. House District 1: Trump-backed Republican faces Democratic organizer