Upset Brief · GA-10 · Pamela DeLancy (D) vs. Houston Gaines (R)

A long shot on the math: it takes a 20.8-point national wave.

<1%
odds today
<1%
odds with the plan
74,342
net votes to find
37
days left; voting starts October 13
Where
  1. 01
    Lowes (Henry County)
    Starting line DeLancy +45. 2.8% split their ticket. About 2,500 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +470
  2. 02
    Wesley Lakes (Henry County)
    Starting line DeLancy +58. 2.5% split their ticket. About 1,355 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +320
  3. 03
    Westside (Henry County)
    Starting line DeLancy +64. 2.5% split their ticket. About 1,242 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +313
  4. 04
    Locust Grove (Henry County)
    Starting line DeLancy +43. 1.8% split their ticket. About 1,624 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +281
  5. 05
    Precinct 5D (Clarke County)
    Starting line DeLancy +45. 3.6% split their ticket. About 1,364 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +241
  6. 06
    Old Salem (Greene County)
    Starting line Gaines +58. 6.8% split their ticket.
    +218

The top 12 precincts carry 29% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    6,496 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Gaines today.
    +6,496
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 26,472 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where DeLancy's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +3,466
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean DeLancy's way.
    +237

Plus a national shift of 20.8 points of margin (64,142 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. DeLancy wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Gaines.
  2. In Lowes (Henry County) and Westside (Henry County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 20.8 points toward DeLancy's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    165 precincts, R² 0.993, 21 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -99,736 to -28,780 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30
    DeLancy $8,705 cash on hand; Gaines $703,420.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    27,698 households, 83,093 dials, about 4,354 live conversations: an estimated $9,262 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $9,262 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

A program on this list with a dashboard you can watch daily: conversations, voter IDs and ballots chased, precinct by precinct.

The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Georgia races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Georgia Secretary of State precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.