What it would take for Pamela DeLancy.
Gaines starts 24.1 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work can move about 10,199 net votes toward DeLancy, a 3.3-point gain. Winning outright would take a 20.8-point national wave on top of that. Here is the plan that makes DeLancy the one standing if one comes.
A long shot on the math: it takes a 20.8-point national wave.
154,065 votes.
That is half of the 308,128 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where DeLancy stands today, and what is missing:
Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022 and 2024 results in this district (House, President, U.S. Senate, Governor). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.
<1% today. A wave changes that.
We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.
Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.
The gap closes three ways.
Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.
Who. 6,496 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Gaines today.
How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. DeLancy needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Gaines.
Who. At least 26,472 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where DeLancy's side wins at least 55 percent.
How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.
Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean DeLancy's way.
How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.
Together: 10,199 net votes against a gap of 74,342. Still 64,143 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 20.8 points that no campaign controls.
12 precincts carry 29% of it.
Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.
- 01+470Lowes (Henry County)mobilizeStarting line DeLancy +45. 2.8% split their ticket. About 2,500 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 02+320Wesley Lakes (Henry County)mobilizeStarting line DeLancy +58. 2.5% split their ticket. About 1,355 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 03+313Westside (Henry County)mobilizeStarting line DeLancy +64. 2.5% split their ticket. About 1,242 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 04+281Locust Grove (Henry County)mobilizeStarting line DeLancy +43. 1.8% split their ticket. About 1,624 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 05+241Precinct 5D (Clarke County)mobilizeStarting line DeLancy +45. 3.6% split their ticket. About 1,364 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 06+218Old Salem (Greene County)persuadeStarting line Gaines +58. 6.8% split their ticket.
- 07+208Precinct 5C (Clarke County)mobilizeStarting line DeLancy +75. 3.9% split their ticket. About 682 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 08+206Precinct 3B (Clarke County)mobilizeStarting line DeLancy +48. 4.6% split their ticket. About 1,027 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 09+204Civic Center (Oconee County)persuadeStarting line Gaines +30. 7.6% split their ticket.
- 10+194Butts County Admin Building (Butts County)persuadeStarting line Gaines +49. 3.9% split their ticket.
- 11+156McDonough (Henry County)mobilizeStarting line DeLancy +49. 2.4% split their ticket. About 785 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 12+155Precinct 5A (Clarke County)mobilizeStarting line DeLancy +51. 4.7% split their ticket. About 549 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
The hidden path.
Lowes (Henry County) carries the most.
Lowes (Henry County) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 470. It sits at DeLancy +45 on our starting line, and 2.8 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.
Westside (Henry County) is a turnout race.
DeLancy's side leads Westside (Henry County) by about 64 points on our starting line, and it cast about 1,242 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (an estimate). Roughly that many of its 2024 voters sat out the last midterm; bringing enough of them back nets 278 votes there.
Civic Center (Oconee County) splits its ticket the most.
Of the precincts in this plan, Civic Center (Oconee County) has the highest share of ticket splitters: 7.6 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.
Spend it where it counts.
As of June 30, 2026, Gaines had $703K in cash on hand to DeLancy's $8,705. That is exactly why the plan puts every dollar on the few places listed here instead of the whole map.
Where voters cross over.
Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where DeLancy's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.
- Precincts
- 165
- Slope
- 0.985
- R²
- 0.993
- Residual SD
- 3.4 pts
- Crossover precincts
- 21
Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: DeLancy's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.
Voting starts October 13.
- Now to October 5Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with DeLancy, with Gaines, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
- October 6 to 12Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 6,496 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before.
- October 13 to 23Bank the ballots
Advance in-person voting runs October 13 through October 30, and absentee ballots start going out October 5. Absentee ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on November 3. Chase every supporter's mail ballot request until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
- October 24 to November 2Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 26,472 of them live where DeLancy is favored. Absentee ballots must be received by the county election office by 7 p.m. on November 3. Applications must be received by October 23.
- November 3Election day
Polls are open 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. and photo ID is required. Georgia has no same-day registration. A candidate needs a majority; if no one reaches 50 percent plus one, the top two meet in a December 1 runoff. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.
No wishful thinking.
Official results in this district: the Republican nominee carried the 2024 House race by 26.1 points; Trump carried the 2024 presidential race by 20.8 points; Walker carried the 2022 U.S. Senate race by 19.9 points.
- DeLancy wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Gaines.
- In Lowes (Henry County) and Westside (Henry County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
- The national environment moves about 20.8 points toward DeLancy's side between now and November 3.
- No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
4,354 conversations.
That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 83,093 dials to 27,698 households, before the last ballot is cast.
Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.
We run this list.
Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $9,262 at our published rates: 27,698 households, three attempts each.
Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.
Who is on the ballot.
Pamela DeLancy (D)
A retired U.S. Army nurse colonel from Henry County with more than 35 years of service, including brigade command of the AMEDD Professional Medical Command at Fort Gillem, and a Legion of Merit recipient; a registered nurse and Georgia Public Health District 4 board of health member with an MS in strategic studies from the U.S. Army War College (campaign site; AJC).
Cash on hand $8,705 and $23,080 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.
Houston Gaines (R)
Georgia state representative from Athens since 2019 and a former University of Georgia Student Government Association president with a BA in political science and economics from UGA.
Cash on hand $703,420 and $2,303,880 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.
Tabitha Johnson-Green (Wri)
A registered nurse of about two decades and small-business owner with degrees from Georgia Southern University and Middle Georgia College.
What changed, and when.
We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.
- September 26, 2026Underdog plan published
Starting line: Gaines +24.1. Pamela DeLancy needs 74,342 net votes. Odds under 1% today, under 1% with the plan.
Questions
Can Pamela DeLancy win Georgia's 10th Congressional District in 2026?
Only with help from the national environment. Campaign work can move about 10,199 net votes; the gap is 74,342. The rest would take a 20.8-point national shift.
Where are the votes Pamela DeLancy needs?
Ranked by net votes in the plan: Lowes (Henry County), Wesley Lakes (Henry County), Westside (Henry County), Locust Grove (Henry County), Precinct 5D (Clarke County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.
How many voters does Pamela DeLancy need to persuade?
About 3,248 voters who lean Houston Gaines today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 6,496 persuadable voters leaning Houston Gaines.
When does early voting start in Georgia in 2026?
Advance in-person voting in Georgia runs October 13 through October 30, 2026. The registration deadline is October 5, absentee ballot applications must be received by October 23, and absentee ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on Election Day. Georgia requires a majority to win; if no candidate reaches 50 percent plus one, the top two meet in a runoff on December 1.
Who made this analysis?
The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Georgia Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.
Method and sources
Precinct math from official Georgia Secretary of State returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.
Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.
- Georgia Secretary of State, election results
- Georgia Secretary of State, elections
- FEC candidate filings (OpenFEC)
- 2026 voter contact benchmarks (The Political Group)
Race coverage
- Wikipedia: Georgia's 10th congressional district
- Wikipedia: Houston Gaines
- Ballotpedia: Georgia's 10th Congressional District election, 2026
- Ballotpedia: Pamela DeLancy
- Ballotpedia: Tabitha Johnson Green
- Atlanta Journal-Constitution: U.S. House District 10: Trump-endorsed Republican faces Democratic nurse