Upset Brief · GA-11 · Chris Harden (D) vs. John Cowan (R)

A long shot on the math: it takes a 25.4-point national wave.

0%
odds today
<1%
odds with the plan
91,606
net votes to find
37
days left; voting starts October 13
Where
  1. 01
    Kennesaw 3A (Cobb County)
    Starting line Harden +21. 4.6% split their ticket. About 1,619 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +189
  2. 02
    Oregon 03 (Cobb County)
    Starting line Harden +39. 3.6% split their ticket. About 1,004 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +180
  3. 03
    Little River (Cherokee County)
    Starting line Cowan +30. 6.9% split their ticket.
    +179
  4. 04
    Terrell Mill 01 (Cobb County)
    Starting line Harden +33. 4.9% split their ticket. About 971 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +176
  5. 05
    Roswell 01 (Cobb County)
    Starting line Cowan +13. 8.9% split their ticket.
    +175
  6. 06
    Chalker 01 (Cobb County)
    Starting line Harden +25. 3.9% split their ticket. About 1,334 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +172

The top 12 precincts carry 18% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    9,880 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Cowan today.
    +9,880
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 12,675 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Harden's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +1,184
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Harden's way.
    +337

Plus a national shift of 25.4 points of margin (80,205 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Harden wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Cowan.
  2. In Oregon 03 (Cobb County) and Chalker 01 (Cobb County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 25.4 points toward Harden's side between now and November 3.
  4. Published 2026 polls do not set the starting line here (one has a documented methodological flaw), so it is a weighted blend of official recent results; an independent head-to-head poll would move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    152 precincts, R² 0.978, 26 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -116,764 to -43,675 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30
    Harden $2,237 cash on hand; Cowan $17,630.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    23,043 households, 69,130 dials, about 3,622 live conversations: an estimated $7,991 at published rates.
For the campaign

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For donors, PACs and committees

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The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Georgia races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Georgia Secretary of State precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.