Georgia · U.S. House · District 11 · November 3, 2026

What it would take for Chris Harden.

Q: Can Chris Harden win Georgia's 11th Congressional District in 2026?

Only with help from the national environment. Campaign work can move about 11,401 net votes; the gap is 91,606. The rest would take a 25.4-point national shift.

Q: Where are the votes Chris Harden needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Kennesaw 3A (Cobb County), Oregon 03 (Cobb County), Little River (Cherokee County), Terrell Mill 01 (Cobb County), Roswell 01 (Cobb County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

Q: How many voters does Chris Harden need to persuade?

About 4,940 voters who lean John Cowan today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 9,880 persuadable voters leaning John Cowan.

Q: When does early voting start in Georgia in 2026?

Advance in-person voting in Georgia runs October 13 through October 30, 2026. The registration deadline is October 5, absentee ballot applications must be received by October 23, and absentee ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on Election Day. Georgia requires a majority to win; if no candidate reaches 50 percent plus one, the top two meet in a runoff on December 1.

Q: Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Georgia Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Cowan starts 29.1 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work can move about 11,401 net votes toward Harden, a 3.6-point gain. Winning outright would take a 25.4-point national wave on top of that. Here is the plan that makes Harden the one standing if one comes.

91,606

net votes between Harden and a win

days to election day. Advance voting opens October 13.

29.1 pts

Cowan lead, our starting line from recent results

In short

One-page brief ›All Georgia races ranked ›

A long shot on the math: it takes a 25.4-point national wave.

Odds today0%

Odds with the plan<1%

Net votes to find91,606

WhereKennesaw 3A (Cobb County), Oregon 03 (Cobb County), Little River (Cherokee County)

Underdog UpdateSeptember 26, 2026. Underdog plan published. Starting line: Cowan +29.1. Chris Harden needs 91,606 net votes. Odds 0% today, under 1% with the plan.

The number

157,660 votes.

That is half of the 315,319 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Harden stands today, and what is missing:

110,549 Chris Harden baseline

202,155 John Cowan baseline

Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022 and 2024 results in this district (House, President, U.S. Senate, Governor). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

0% today. A wave changes that.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

Harden wins in

<1%

of 20,000 simulated elections

With no plan

How much of what history allows the campaign achieves100%

The plan on this page sits at 100%. Median outcome at this setting: Harden short by 79,836.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade

9,880

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 9,880

Who. 9,880 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Cowan today.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Harden needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Cowan.

Mobilize

1,184

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 12,675

Who. At least 12,675 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Harden's side wins at least 55 percent.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate

337

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 962

Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Harden's way.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 11,401 net votes against a gap of 91,606. Still 80,205 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 25.4 points that no campaign controls.

Where it is won

12 precincts carry 18% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset

01
Kennesaw 3A (Cobb County)mobilize
Starting line Harden +21. 4.6% split their ticket. About 1,619 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+189
02
Oregon 03 (Cobb County)mobilize
Starting line Harden +39. 3.6% split their ticket. About 1,004 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+180
03
Little River (Cherokee County)persuade
Starting line Cowan +30. 6.9% split their ticket.
+179
04
Terrell Mill 01 (Cobb County)mobilize
Starting line Harden +33. 4.9% split their ticket. About 971 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+176
05
Roswell 01 (Cobb County)persuade
Starting line Cowan +13. 8.9% split their ticket.
+175
06
Chalker 01 (Cobb County)mobilize
Starting line Harden +25. 3.9% split their ticket. About 1,334 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+172
07
Hickory Log (Cherokee County)persuade
Starting line Cowan +40. 6.5% split their ticket.
+168
08
Lickskillet (Cherokee County)persuade
Starting line Cowan +26. 7.2% split their ticket.
+166
09
Woodstock (Cherokee County)persuade
Starting line Cowan +31. 7.3% split their ticket.
+163
10
Murdock 01 (Cobb County)persuade
Starting line Cowan +13. 10.4% split their ticket.
+152
11
Hickory Flat (Cherokee County)persuade
Starting line Cowan +47. 8.1% split their ticket.
+150
12
Sope Creek 02 (Cobb County)persuade
Starting line Harden +5. 9.1% split their ticket.
+150

What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

Kennesaw 3A (Cobb County) carries the most.

Kennesaw 3A (Cobb County) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 189. It sits at Harden +21 on our starting line, and 4.6 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.

Oregon 03 (Cobb County) is a turnout race.

Harden's side leads Oregon 03 (Cobb County) by about 39 points on our starting line, and it cast about 1,004 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (an estimate). Roughly that many of its 2024 voters sat out the last midterm; bringing enough of them back nets 136 votes there.

Murdock 01 (Cobb County) splits its ticket the most.

Of the precincts in this plan, Murdock 01 (Cobb County) has the highest share of ticket splitters: 10.4 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.

Spend it where it counts.

As of June 30, 2026, Cowan had $18K in cash on hand to Harden's $2,237. That is exactly why the plan puts every dollar on the few places listed here instead of the whole map.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Harden's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

Precincts: 152
Slope: 0.929
R²: 0.978
Residual SD: 4.2 pts
Crossover precincts: 26

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Harden's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The next 37 days

Voting starts October 13.

Now to October 5
Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with Harden, with Cowan, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
October 6 to 12
Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 9,880 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before.
October 13 to 23
Bank the ballots
Advance in-person voting runs October 13 through October 30, and absentee ballots start going out October 5. Absentee ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on November 3. Chase every supporter's mail ballot request until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
October 24 to November 2
Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 12,675 of them live where Harden is favored. Absentee ballots must be received by the county election office by 7 p.m. on November 3. Applications must be received by October 23.
November 3
Election day
Polls are open 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. and photo ID is required. Georgia has no same-day registration. A candidate needs a majority; if no one reaches 50 percent plus one, the top two meet in a December 1 runoff. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Official results in this district: the Republican nominee carried the 2024 House race by 34.6 points; Trump carried the 2024 presidential race by 23.3 points; Walker carried the 2022 U.S. Senate race by 21.1 points.

Harden wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Cowan.
In Oregon 03 (Cobb County) and Chalker 01 (Cobb County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
The national environment moves about 25.4 points toward Harden's side between now and November 3.
Published 2026 polls do not set the starting line here (one has a documented methodological flaw), so it is a weighted blend of official recent results; an independent head-to-head poll would move it.

The work

3,622 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 69,130 dials to 23,043 households, before the last ballot is cast.

23K

households on the target list

69K

dials across three attempts

3,622

live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

We run this list.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $7,991 at our published rates: 23,043 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

Run this plan How HyperPhonebank works ›Size your own program ›

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog

Chris Harden (D)

Attorney who co-owns the Harden Law Firm, an estate planning and probate practice in Woodstock, and has served as a contract attorney for juvenile court dependency cases in several north Georgia counties; a Rossville native with degrees from Georgia State University and Atlanta's John Marshall Law School.

Cash on hand $2,237 and $76,330 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Favorite

John Cowan (R)

Northwest Georgia neurosurgeon with more than two decades in practice and founder of Cortex Toys and Cortex Holdings; a Cartersville High School valedictorian who holds a B.S. in physics from Davidson College and an M.D. from Johns Hopkins, with neurosurgery residency at the University of Michigan.

Cash on hand $17,630 and $2,347,796 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Also on the ballot

Amanda James (Ind)

Cartersville native with 35 years at Shaw Industries, currently a senior fabrication manager in product development, and a registered mediator; she holds a B.S. in political science from Kennesaw State University.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.

September 26, 2026
Underdog plan published
Starting line: Cowan +29.1. Chris Harden needs 91,606 net votes. Odds 0% today, under 1% with the plan.

Questions

Can Chris Harden win Georgia's 11th Congressional District in 2026?

Only with help from the national environment. Campaign work can move about 11,401 net votes; the gap is 91,606. The rest would take a 25.4-point national shift.

Where are the votes Chris Harden needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Kennesaw 3A (Cobb County), Oregon 03 (Cobb County), Little River (Cherokee County), Terrell Mill 01 (Cobb County), Roswell 01 (Cobb County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does Chris Harden need to persuade?

About 4,940 voters who lean John Cowan today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 9,880 persuadable voters leaning John Cowan.

When does early voting start in Georgia in 2026?

Advance in-person voting in Georgia runs October 13 through October 30, 2026. The registration deadline is October 5, absentee ballot applications must be received by October 23, and absentee ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on Election Day. Georgia requires a majority to win; if no candidate reaches 50 percent plus one, the top two meet in a runoff on December 1.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Georgia Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official Georgia Secretary of State returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.