Upset Brief · GA-12 · Ceretta Smith (D) vs. Rick Allen (R), incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 14.5-point national wave.

1%
odds today
2%
odds with the plan
47,527
net votes to find
37
days left; voting starts October 13
Where
  1. 01
    Precinct 310 (Richmond County)
    Starting line Smith +53. 2.3% split their ticket. About 1,429 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +302
  2. 02
    Precinct 405 (Richmond County)
    Starting line Smith +80. 3.2% split their ticket. About 886 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +299
  3. 03
    Precinct 607 (Richmond County)
    Starting line Smith +82. 3.9% split their ticket. About 540 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +197
  4. 04
    Precinct 506 (Richmond County)
    Starting line Smith +69. 4.0% split their ticket. About 578 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +179
  5. 05
    Calhoun Park (Laurens County)
    Starting line Smith +42. 5.4% split their ticket. About 683 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +166
  6. 06
    Precinct 406 (Richmond County)
    Starting line Smith +79. 3.6% split their ticket. About 436 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +154

The top 12 precincts carry 25% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    5,233 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Allen today.
    +5,233
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 19,371 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Smith's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +3,185
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Smith's way.
    +167

Plus a national shift of 14.5 points of margin (38,942 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Smith wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Allen.
  2. In Precinct 310 (Richmond County) and Precinct 405 (Richmond County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 14.5 points toward Smith's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    257 precincts, R² 0.996, 39 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -70,707 to -7,502 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30
    Smith $3,502 cash on hand; Allen $1,320,958.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    20,917 households, 62,752 dials, about 3,288 live conversations: an estimated $7,254 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $7,254 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

A program on this list with a dashboard you can watch daily: conversations, voter IDs and ballots chased, precinct by precinct.

The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Georgia races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Georgia Secretary of State precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.