Georgia · U.S. House · District 12 · November 3, 2026

What it would take for Ceretta Smith.

Allen starts 17.7 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work can move about 8,585 net votes toward Smith, a 3.2-point gain. Winning outright would take a 14.5-point national wave on top of that. Here is the plan that makes Smith the one standing if one comes.

47,527

net votes between Smith and a win

days to election day. Advance voting opens October 13.

17.7 pts

Allen lead, our starting line from recent results

In short

One-page brief ›All Georgia races ranked ›

A long shot on the math: it takes a 14.5-point national wave.

Odds today1%

Odds with the plan2%

Net votes to find47,527

WherePrecinct 310 (Richmond County), Precinct 405 (Richmond County), Precinct 607 (Richmond County)

Underdog UpdateSeptember 26, 2026. Underdog plan published. Starting line: Allen +17.7. Ceretta Smith needs 47,527 net votes. Odds 1% today, 2% with the plan.

The number

134,445 votes.

That is half of the 268,888 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Smith stands today, and what is missing:

110,095 Ceretta Smith baseline

157,622 Rick Allen baseline

Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022 and 2024 results in this district (House, President, U.S. Senate, Governor). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

1% today. A wave changes that.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

Smith wins in

of 20,000 simulated elections

With no plan

How much of what history allows the campaign achieves100%

The plan on this page sits at 100%. Median outcome at this setting: Smith short by 39,109.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade

5,233

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 5,233

Who. 5,233 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Allen today.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Smith needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Allen.

Mobilize

3,185

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 19,371

Who. At least 19,371 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Smith's side wins at least 55 percent.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate

167

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 478

Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Smith's way.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 8,585 net votes against a gap of 47,527. Still 38,942 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 14.5 points that no campaign controls.

Where it is won

12 precincts carry 25% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset

01
Precinct 310 (Richmond County)mobilize
Starting line Smith +53. 2.3% split their ticket. About 1,429 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+302
02
Precinct 405 (Richmond County)mobilize
Starting line Smith +80. 3.2% split their ticket. About 886 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+299
03
Precinct 607 (Richmond County)mobilize
Starting line Smith +82. 3.9% split their ticket. About 540 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+197
04
Precinct 506 (Richmond County)mobilize
Starting line Smith +69. 4.0% split their ticket. About 578 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+179
05
Calhoun Park (Laurens County)mobilize
Starting line Smith +42. 5.4% split their ticket. About 683 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+166
06
Precinct 406 (Richmond County)mobilize
Starting line Smith +79. 3.6% split their ticket. About 436 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+154
07
Precinct 501 (Richmond County)mobilize
Starting line Smith +74. 4.2% split their ticket. About 435 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+146
08
Precinct 502 (Richmond County)mobilize
Starting line Smith +69. 5.2% split their ticket. About 467 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+144
09
Precinct 402 (Richmond County)mobilize
Starting line Smith +71. 4.4% split their ticket. About 449 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+136
10
Precinct 306 (Richmond County)mobilize
Starting line Smith +32. 4.7% split their ticket. About 804 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+133
11
Precinct 202 (Richmond County)mobilize
Starting line Smith +39. 4.0% split their ticket. About 695 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+130
12
Precinct 601 (Richmond County)mobilize
Starting line Smith +43. 3.3% split their ticket. About 668 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+127

What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

Precinct 310 (Richmond County) carries the most.

Precinct 310 (Richmond County) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 302. It sits at Smith +53 on our starting line, and 2.3 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.

Precinct 405 (Richmond County) is a turnout race.

Smith's side leads Precinct 405 (Richmond County) by about 80 points on our starting line, and it cast about 886 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (an estimate). Roughly that many of its 2024 voters sat out the last midterm; bringing enough of them back nets 246 votes there.

Calhoun Park (Laurens County) splits its ticket the most.

Of the precincts in this plan, Calhoun Park (Laurens County) has the highest share of ticket splitters: 5.4 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.

Spend it where it counts.

As of June 30, 2026, Allen had $1.32 million in cash on hand to Smith's $3,502. That is exactly why the plan puts every dollar on the few places listed here instead of the whole map.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Smith's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

Precincts: 257
Slope: 0.964
R²: 0.996
Residual SD: 2.5 pts
Crossover precincts: 39

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Smith's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The next 37 days

Voting starts October 13.

Now to October 5
Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with Smith, with Allen, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
October 6 to 12
Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 5,233 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before.
October 13 to 23
Bank the ballots
Advance in-person voting runs October 13 through October 30, and absentee ballots start going out October 5. Absentee ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on November 3. Chase every supporter's mail ballot request until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
October 24 to November 2
Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 19,371 of them live where Smith is favored. Absentee ballots must be received by the county election office by 7 p.m. on November 3. Applications must be received by October 23.
November 3
Election day
Polls are open 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. and photo ID is required. Georgia has no same-day registration. A candidate needs a majority; if no one reaches 50 percent plus one, the top two meet in a December 1 runoff. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Official results in this district: the Republican nominee carried the 2024 House race by 20.6 points; Trump carried the 2024 presidential race by 14.2 points; Walker carried the 2022 U.S. Senate race by 13.3 points.

Smith wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Allen.
In Precinct 310 (Richmond County) and Precinct 405 (Richmond County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
The national environment moves about 14.5 points toward Smith's side between now and November 3.
No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The work

3,288 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 62,752 dials to 20,917 households, before the last ballot is cast.

21K

households on the target list

63K

dials across three attempts

3,288

live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

We run this list.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $7,254 at our published rates: 20,917 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

Run this plan How HyperPhonebank works ›Size your own program ›

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog

Ceretta Smith (D)

U.S. Army veteran who served as an Army medic from 1992 to 2000 and then spent more than two decades as a federal employee, including as a physical evaluation board liaison officer at Eisenhower Army Medical Center; a former Grovetown city councilmember and past president of AFGE Local 2017.

Cash on hand $3,502 and $26,696 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Favorite · incumbent

Rick Allen (R)

U.S. representative for the 12th District since 2015 and founder of an Augusta construction company he started in 1976; he holds a degree in building construction from Auburn University.

Cash on hand $1,320,958 and $993,220 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›Wikipedia ›

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.

September 26, 2026
Underdog plan published
Starting line: Allen +17.7. Ceretta Smith needs 47,527 net votes. Odds 1% today, 2% with the plan.

Questions

Can Ceretta Smith win Georgia's 12th Congressional District in 2026?

Only with help from the national environment. Campaign work can move about 8,585 net votes; the gap is 47,527. The rest would take a 14.5-point national shift.

Where are the votes Ceretta Smith needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Precinct 310 (Richmond County), Precinct 405 (Richmond County), Precinct 607 (Richmond County), Precinct 506 (Richmond County), Calhoun Park (Laurens County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does Ceretta Smith need to persuade?

About 2,616 voters who lean Rick Allen today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 5,233 persuadable voters leaning Rick Allen.

When does early voting start in Georgia in 2026?

Advance in-person voting in Georgia runs October 13 through October 30, 2026. The registration deadline is October 5, absentee ballot applications must be received by October 23, and absentee ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on Election Day. Georgia requires a majority to win; if no candidate reaches 50 percent plus one, the top two meet in a runoff on December 1.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Georgia Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official Georgia Secretary of State returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.