A long shot on the math: it takes a 41.6-point national wave.

1. 01
   Garners A (Gwinnett County)

   Starting line Clark +4. 7.9% split their ticket.
   +90
2. 02
   Cates M (Gwinnett County)

   Starting line Clark +5. 6.8% split their ticket.
   +86
3. 03
   Baycreek H (Gwinnett County)

   Starting line Clark +26. 3.7% split their ticket.
   +82
4. 04
   Baycreek C (Gwinnett County)

   Starting line Clark +31. 4.2% split their ticket.
   +80
5. 05
   17-Oxford (Newton County)

   Starting line Clark +3. 23.3% split their ticket.
   +74
6. 06
   Baycreek D (Gwinnett County)

   Starting line Clark +22. 5.2% split their ticket.
   +71

The top 12 precincts carry 18% of the plan.

• P
  Persuade

  4,764 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Clark today.
  +4,764
• M
  Mobilize

  There are almost no precincts Chavez's side carries, so turnout alone cannot help here.
  +0
• C
  Consolidate

  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Chavez's way.
  +178

Plus a national shift of 41.6 points of margin (112,891 votes) that no campaign controls.

1. Chavez wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Clark.
2. The national environment moves about 41.6 points toward Chavez's side between now and November 3.
3. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

• 01
  Crossover regression

  149 precincts, R² 0.970, 8 crossover precincts identified
• 02
  Monte Carlo

  20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -144,425 to -81,513 votes.
• 03
  Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30

  Chavez no FEC totals reported; Clark $229,145.
• 04
  Call program for this list

  6,926 households, 20,777 dials, about 1,089 live conversations: an estimated $3,607 at published rates.