Georgia · U.S. House · District 13 · November 3, 2026

What it would take for Jonathan Chavez.

Clark starts 43.4 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work can move about 4,942 net votes toward Chavez, a 1.8-point gain. Winning outright would take a 41.6-point national wave on top of that. Here is the plan that makes Chavez the one standing if one comes.

117,833

net votes between Chavez and a win

days to election day. Advance voting opens October 13.

43.4 pts

Clark lead, our starting line from recent results

In short

One-page brief ›All Georgia races ranked ›

A long shot on the math: it takes a 41.6-point national wave.

Odds today0%

Odds with the plan0%

Net votes to find117,833

WhereGarners A (Gwinnett County), Cates M (Gwinnett County), Baycreek H (Gwinnett County)

Underdog UpdateSeptember 26, 2026. Underdog plan published. Starting line: Clark +43.4. Jonathan Chavez needs 117,833 net votes. Odds 0% today, 0% with the plan.

The number

135,776 votes.

That is half of the 271,551 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Chavez stands today, and what is missing:

76,061 Jonathan Chavez baseline

193,895 Jasmine Clark baseline

Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022 and 2024 results in this district (House, President, U.S. Senate, Governor). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

0% today. A wave changes that.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

Chavez wins in

of 20,000 simulated elections

With no plan

How much of what history allows the campaign achieves100%

The plan on this page sits at 100%. Median outcome at this setting: Chavez short by 113,035.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade

4,764

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 4,764

Who. 4,764 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Clark today.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Chavez needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Clark.

Mobilize

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 0

Who. There are almost no precincts Chavez's side carries, so turnout alone cannot help here.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate

178

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 509

Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Chavez's way.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 4,942 net votes against a gap of 117,833. Still 112,891 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 41.6 points that no campaign controls.

Where it is won

12 precincts carry 18% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset

01
Garners A (Gwinnett County)persuade
Starting line Clark +4. 7.9% split their ticket.
+90
02
Cates M (Gwinnett County)persuade
Starting line Clark +5. 6.8% split their ticket.
+86
03
Baycreek H (Gwinnett County)persuade
Starting line Clark +26. 3.7% split their ticket.
+82
04
Baycreek C (Gwinnett County)persuade
Starting line Clark +31. 4.2% split their ticket.
+80
05
17-Oxford (Newton County)persuade
Starting line Clark +3. 23.3% split their ticket.
+74
06
Baycreek D (Gwinnett County)persuade
Starting line Clark +22. 5.2% split their ticket.
+71
07
Lawrenceville L (Gwinnett County)persuade
Starting line Clark +24. 5.3% split their ticket.
+68
08
Cates G (Gwinnett County)persuade
Starting line Clark +3. 6.9% split their ticket.
+68
09
Cates I (Gwinnett County)persuade
Starting line Clark +17. 6.3% split their ticket.
+66
10
Cates E (Gwinnett County)persuade
Starting line Clark +10. 6.4% split their ticket.
+64
11
Baycreek G (Gwinnett County)persuade
Starting line Clark +47. 3.2% split their ticket.
+64
12
Ba (Rockdale County)persuade
Starting line Clark +35. 4.3% split their ticket.
+63

What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

Garners A (Gwinnett County) carries the most.

Garners A (Gwinnett County) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 90. It sits at Clark +4 on our starting line, and 7.9 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.

17-Oxford (Newton County) splits its ticket the most.

Of the precincts in this plan, 17-Oxford (Newton County) has the highest share of ticket splitters: 23.3 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.

The honest math.

Every lever at its historical ceiling moves 4,942 net votes. The gap is 117,833. That is the measure of what a strong campaign adds: 1.8 points of margin, and first position if the national mood breaks.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Chavez's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

Precincts: 149
Slope: 0.981
R²: 0.970
Residual SD: 4.1 pts
Crossover precincts: 8

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Chavez's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The next 37 days

Voting starts October 13.

Now to October 5
Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with Chavez, with Clark, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
October 6 to 12
Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 4,764 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before.
October 13 to 23
Bank the ballots
Advance in-person voting runs October 13 through October 30, and absentee ballots start going out October 5. Absentee ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on November 3. Chase every supporter's mail ballot request until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
October 24 to November 2
Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 0 of them live where Chavez is favored. Absentee ballots must be received by the county election office by 7 p.m. on November 3. Applications must be received by October 23.
November 3
Election day
Polls are open 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. and photo ID is required. Georgia has no same-day registration. A candidate needs a majority; if no one reaches 50 percent plus one, the top two meet in a December 1 runoff. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Official results in this district: the Democratic nominee carried the 2024 House race by 43.7 points; Harris carried the 2024 presidential race by 42.3 points; Warnock carried the 2022 U.S. Senate race by 46.3 points.

Chavez wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Clark.
The national environment moves about 41.6 points toward Chavez's side between now and November 3.
No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The work

1,089 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 20,777 dials to 6,926 households, before the last ballot is cast.

6,926

households on the target list

21K

dials across three attempts

1,089

live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

We run this list.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $3,607 at our published rates: 6,926 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

Run this plan How HyperPhonebank works ›Size your own program ›

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog

Jonathan Chavez (R)

U.S. Air Force veteran who served from 1990 to 2013, including deployments to Iraq; he holds a bachelor's degree from the University of New Mexico and master's degrees from Harvard and Johns Hopkins.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Favorite

Jasmine Clark (D)

Georgia state representative for the 108th District since 2019 and a microbiologist who serves as an assistant clinical professor at Emory's Nell Hodgson Woodruff School of Nursing; a metro Atlanta native with a Ph.D. in microbiology and molecular genetics from Emory University who led the 2017 March for Science in Atlanta.

Cash on hand $229,145 and $1,619,079 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›Wikipedia ›

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.

September 26, 2026
Underdog plan published
Starting line: Clark +43.4. Jonathan Chavez needs 117,833 net votes. Odds 0% today, 0% with the plan.

Questions

Can Jonathan Chavez win Georgia's 13th Congressional District in 2026?

Only with help from the national environment. Campaign work can move about 4,942 net votes; the gap is 117,833. The rest would take a 41.6-point national shift.

Where are the votes Jonathan Chavez needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Garners A (Gwinnett County), Cates M (Gwinnett County), Baycreek H (Gwinnett County), Baycreek C (Gwinnett County), 17-Oxford (Newton County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does Jonathan Chavez need to persuade?

About 2,382 voters who lean Jasmine Clark today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 4,764 persuadable voters leaning Jasmine Clark.

When does early voting start in Georgia in 2026?

Advance in-person voting in Georgia runs October 13 through October 30, 2026. The registration deadline is October 5, absentee ballot applications must be received by October 23, and absentee ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on Election Day. Georgia requires a majority to win; if no candidate reaches 50 percent plus one, the top two meet in a runoff on December 1.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Georgia Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official Georgia Secretary of State returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.