Upset Brief · GA-14 · Shawn Harris (D) vs. Clay Fuller (R), incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 31.8-point national wave.

0%
odds today
0%
odds with the plan
96,231
net votes to find
37
days left; voting starts October 13
Where
  1. 01
    Russom Elementary (Paulding County)
    Starting line Fuller +25. 5.1% split their ticket.
    +184
  2. 02
    Acworth 1C (Cobb County)
    Starting line Harris +30. 4.1% split their ticket. About 1,147 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +168
  3. 03
    Kennesaw 5A (Cobb County)
    Starting line Harris +14. 5.2% split their ticket. About 1,260 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +156
  4. 04
    Lindale (Floyd County)
    Starting line Fuller +49. 5.1% split their ticket.
    +132
  5. 05
    Ringgold (Catoosa County)
    Starting line Fuller +46. 5.8% split their ticket.
    +123
  6. 06
    Oregon 05 (Cobb County)
    Starting line Harris +24. 5.3% split their ticket. About 632 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +121

The top 12 precincts carry 20% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    7,037 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Fuller today.
    +7,037
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 5,868 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Harris's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +472
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Harris's way.
    +218

Plus a national shift of 31.8 points of margin (88,504 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Harris wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Fuller.
  2. In Acworth 1C (Cobb County) and Kennesaw 5A (Cobb County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 31.8 points toward Harris's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    143 precincts, R² 0.988, 21 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -120,417 to -56,098 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30
    Harris $18,230 cash on hand; Fuller $70,518.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    14,189 households, 42,568 dials, about 2,231 live conversations: an estimated $5,979 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $5,979 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

A program on this list with a dashboard you can watch daily: conversations, voter IDs and ballots chased, precinct by precinct.

The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Georgia races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Georgia Secretary of State precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.