Georgia · U.S. House · District 14 · November 3, 2026

What it would take for Shawn Harris.

Fuller starts 34.6 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work can move about 7,727 net votes toward Harris, a 2.8-point gain. Winning outright would take a 31.8-point national wave on top of that. Here is the plan that makes Harris the one standing if one comes.

96,231

net votes between Harris and a win

days to election day. Advance voting opens October 13.

34.6 pts

Fuller lead, our starting line from recent results

In short

One-page brief ›All Georgia races ranked ›

A long shot on the math: it takes a 31.8-point national wave.

Odds today0%

Odds with the plan0%

Net votes to find96,231

WhereRussom Elementary (Paulding County), Acworth 1C (Cobb County), Kennesaw 5A (Cobb County)

Underdog UpdateSeptember 26, 2026. Underdog plan published. Starting line: Fuller +34.6. Shawn Harris needs 96,231 net votes. Odds 0% today, 0% with the plan.

The number

139,095 votes.

That is half of the 278,189 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Harris stands today, and what is missing:

90,062 Shawn Harris baseline

186,293 Clay Fuller baseline

Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022 and 2024 results in this district (House, President, U.S. Senate, Governor). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

0% today. A wave changes that.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

Harris wins in

of 20,000 simulated elections

With no plan

How much of what history allows the campaign achieves100%

The plan on this page sits at 100%. Median outcome at this setting: Harris short by 88,134.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade

7,037

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 7,037

Who. 7,037 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Fuller today.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Harris needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Fuller.

Mobilize

472

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 5,868

Who. At least 5,868 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Harris's side wins at least 55 percent.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate

218

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 623

Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Harris's way.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 7,727 net votes against a gap of 96,231. Still 88,504 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 31.8 points that no campaign controls.

Where it is won

12 precincts carry 20% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset

01
Russom Elementary (Paulding County)persuade
Starting line Fuller +25. 5.1% split their ticket.
+184
02
Acworth 1C (Cobb County)mobilize
Starting line Harris +30. 4.1% split their ticket. About 1,147 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+168
03
Kennesaw 5A (Cobb County)persuade
Starting line Harris +14. 5.2% split their ticket. About 1,260 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+156
04
Lindale (Floyd County)persuade
Starting line Fuller +49. 5.1% split their ticket.
+132
05
Ringgold (Catoosa County)persuade
Starting line Fuller +46. 5.8% split their ticket.
+123
06
Oregon 05 (Cobb County)persuade
Starting line Harris +24. 5.3% split their ticket. About 632 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+121
07
Lost Mountain 03 (Cobb County)persuade
Starting line Fuller +10. 5.5% split their ticket.
+111
08
North Industrial (Paulding County)persuade
Starting line Fuller +16. 3.8% split their ticket.
+106
09
Chickamauga (Walker County)persuade
Starting line Fuller +62. 5.5% split their ticket.
+106
10
Acworth 1A (Cobb County)persuade
Starting line Harris +4. 6.1% split their ticket.
+102
11
E Paulding Middle School (Paulding County)persuade
Starting line Fuller +30. 3.9% split their ticket.
+98
12
Cheatham Hill 03 (Cobb County)persuade
Starting line Harris +6. 7.1% split their ticket.
+98

What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

Russom Elementary (Paulding County) carries the most.

Russom Elementary (Paulding County) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 184. It sits at Fuller +25 on our starting line, and 5.1 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.

Acworth 1C (Cobb County) is a turnout race.

Harris's side leads Acworth 1C (Cobb County) by about 30 points on our starting line, and it cast about 1,147 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (an estimate). Roughly that many of its 2024 voters sat out the last midterm; bringing enough of them back nets 116 votes there.

Cheatham Hill 03 (Cobb County) splits its ticket the most.

Of the precincts in this plan, Cheatham Hill 03 (Cobb County) has the highest share of ticket splitters: 7.1 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.

Spend it where it counts.

As of June 30, 2026, Fuller had $71K in cash on hand to Harris's $18K. That is exactly why the plan puts every dollar on the few places listed here instead of the whole map.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Harris's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

Precincts: 143
Slope: 0.954
R²: 0.988
Residual SD: 2.9 pts
Crossover precincts: 21

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Harris's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The next 37 days

Voting starts October 13.

Now to October 5
Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with Harris, with Fuller, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
October 6 to 12
Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 7,037 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before.
October 13 to 23
Bank the ballots
Advance in-person voting runs October 13 through October 30, and absentee ballots start going out October 5. Absentee ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on November 3. Chase every supporter's mail ballot request until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
October 24 to November 2
Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 5,868 of them live where Harris is favored. Absentee ballots must be received by the county election office by 7 p.m. on November 3. Applications must be received by October 23.
November 3
Election day
Polls are open 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. and photo ID is required. Georgia has no same-day registration. A candidate needs a majority; if no one reaches 50 percent plus one, the top two meet in a December 1 runoff. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Official results in this district: the Republican nominee carried the 2024 House race by 28.7 points; Trump carried the 2024 presidential race by 36.8 points; Walker carried the 2022 U.S. Senate race by 35.4 points.

Harris wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Fuller.
In Acworth 1C (Cobb County) and Kennesaw 5A (Cobb County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
The national environment moves about 31.8 points toward Harris's side between now and November 3.
No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The work

2,231 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 42,568 dials to 14,189 households, before the last ballot is cast.

14K

households on the target list

43K

dials across three attempts

2,231

live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

We run this list.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $5,979 at our published rates: 14,189 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

Run this plan How HyperPhonebank works ›Size your own program ›

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog

Shawn Harris (D)

Retired U.S. Army brigadier general and former Marine Corps sergeant who commanded infantry in Afghanistan and led a team to Liberia during the 2014 Ebola response; he now runs a grass-fed cattle farm in Rockmart and holds a B.S. in agribusiness education from Tuskegee University and a master's in strategic studies from the Army War College.

Cash on hand $18,230 and $8,098,514 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Favorite · incumbent

Clay Fuller (R)

U.S. representative since April 2026 and former district attorney for the Lookout Mountain Judicial Circuit; a lieutenant colonel in the Georgia Air National Guard and former Air Force JAG officer who deployed to Qatar in 2024, a former White House Fellow, with degrees from Emory, Cornell (MPA) and SMU (J.D.).

Cash on hand $70,518 and $1,846,892 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.

September 26, 2026
Underdog plan published
Starting line: Fuller +34.6. Shawn Harris needs 96,231 net votes. Odds 0% today, 0% with the plan.

Questions

Can Shawn Harris win Georgia's 14th Congressional District in 2026?

Only with help from the national environment. Campaign work can move about 7,727 net votes; the gap is 96,231. The rest would take a 31.8-point national shift.

Where are the votes Shawn Harris needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Russom Elementary (Paulding County), Acworth 1C (Cobb County), Kennesaw 5A (Cobb County), Lindale (Floyd County), Ringgold (Catoosa County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does Shawn Harris need to persuade?

About 3,518 voters who lean Clay Fuller today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 7,037 persuadable voters leaning Clay Fuller.

When does early voting start in Georgia in 2026?

Advance in-person voting in Georgia runs October 13 through October 30, 2026. The registration deadline is October 5, absentee ballot applications must be received by October 23, and absentee ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on Election Day. Georgia requires a majority to win; if no candidate reaches 50 percent plus one, the top two meet in a runoff on December 1.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Georgia Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official Georgia Secretary of State returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.