Upset Brief · GA-02 · Matt Day (R) vs. Sanford Bishop (D), incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 6.0-point national wave.

9%
odds today
20%
odds with the plan
23,055
net votes to find
37
days left; voting starts October 13
Where
  1. 01
    Redbone (Lee County)
    Starting line Day +52. 5.2% split their ticket. About 860 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +233
  2. 02
    Colquitt-Miller (Miller County)
    Starting line Day +46. 6.8% split their ticket. About 578 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +167
  3. 03
    Precinct 1 (Schley County)
    Starting line Day +58. 4.3% split their ticket. About 550 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +153
  4. 04
    Chattahoochee (Muscogee County)
    Starting line Day +12. 4.6% split their ticket. About 1,644 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +149
  5. 05
    Byron 2 (Peach County)
    Starting line Day +20. 4.3% split their ticket. About 1,107 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +143
  6. 06
    The Bindery at Oakland (Lee County)
    Starting line Day +34. 3.4% split their ticket. About 685 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +129

The top 12 precincts carry 20% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    4,905 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Bishop today.
    +4,905
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 26,413 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Day's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +3,407
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Day's way.
    +151

Plus a national shift of 6 points of margin (14,593 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Day wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Bishop.
  2. In Redbone (Lee County) and Precinct 1 (Schley County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 6.0 points toward Day's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    229 precincts, R² 0.994, 53 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -42,898 to 14,252 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30
    Day $1,768 cash on hand; Bishop $447,808.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    25,291 households, 75,873 dials, about 3,976 live conversations: an estimated $8,457 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $8,457 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

A program on this list with a dashboard you can watch daily: conversations, voter IDs and ballots chased, precinct by precinct.

The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Georgia races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Georgia Secretary of State precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.