Georgia · U.S. House · District 2 · November 3, 2026

What it would take for Matt Day.

Bishop starts 9.4 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work can move about 8,463 net votes toward Day, a 3.5-point gain. Winning outright would take a 6.0-point national wave on top of that. Here is the plan that makes Day the one standing if one comes.

23,055

net votes between Day and a win

days to election day. Advance voting opens October 13.

9.4 pts

Bishop lead, our starting line from recent results

In short

One-page brief ›All Georgia races ranked ›

A long shot on the math: it takes a 6.0-point national wave.

Odds today9%

Odds with the plan20%

Net votes to find23,055

WhereRedbone (Lee County), Colquitt-Miller (Miller County), Precinct 1 (Schley County)

Underdog UpdateSeptember 26, 2026. Underdog plan published. Starting line: Bishop +9.4. Matt Day needs 23,055 net votes. Odds 9% today, 20% with the plan.

The number

122,386 votes.

That is half of the 244,771 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Day stands today, and what is missing:

110,410 Matt Day baseline

133,466 Sanford Bishop baseline

Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022 and 2024 results in this district (House, President, U.S. Senate, Governor). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

9% today. 20% with the plan.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

Day wins in

20%

of 20,000 simulated elections

With no plan

How much of what history allows the campaign achieves100%

The plan on this page sits at 100%. Median outcome at this setting: Day short by 14,584.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade

4,905

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 4,905

Who. 4,905 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Bishop today.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Day needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Bishop.

Mobilize

3,407

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 26,413

Who. At least 26,413 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Day's side wins at least 55 percent.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate

151

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 431

Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Day's way.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 8,463 net votes against a gap of 23,055. Still 14,592 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 6 points that no campaign controls.

Where it is won

12 precincts carry 20% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset

01
Redbone (Lee County)mobilize
Starting line Day +52. 5.2% split their ticket. About 860 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+233
02
Colquitt-Miller (Miller County)mobilize
Starting line Day +46. 6.8% split their ticket. About 578 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+167
03
Precinct 1 (Schley County)mobilize
Starting line Day +58. 4.3% split their ticket. About 550 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+153
04
Chattahoochee (Muscogee County)persuade
Starting line Day +12. 4.6% split their ticket. About 1,644 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+149
05
Byron 2 (Peach County)mobilize
Starting line Day +20. 4.3% split their ticket. About 1,107 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+143
06
The Bindery at Oakland (Lee County)mobilize
Starting line Day +34. 3.4% split their ticket. About 685 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+129
07
Moon (Muscogee County)persuade
Starting line Day +14. 5.7% split their ticket. About 979 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+126
08
Central (Thomas County)mobilize
Starting line Day +34. 3.1% split their ticket. About 769 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+125
09
Woodland (Grady County)mobilize
Starting line Day +66. 4.5% split their ticket. About 407 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+125
10
Kirbo Center (Decatur County)mobilize
Starting line Day +33. 4.6% split their ticket. About 590 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+117
11
Leesburg (Lee County)mobilize
Starting line Day +36. 4.4% split their ticket. About 585 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+113
12
St Andrews (Muscogee County)persuade
Starting line Day +6. 4.9% split their ticket.
+111

What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

Redbone (Lee County) carries the most.

Redbone (Lee County) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 233. It sits at Day +52 on our starting line, and 5.2 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.

Precinct 1 (Schley County) is a turnout race.

Day's side leads Precinct 1 (Schley County) by about 58 points on our starting line, and it cast about 550 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (an estimate). Roughly that many of its 2024 voters sat out the last midterm; bringing enough of them back nets 111 votes there.

Colquitt-Miller (Miller County) splits its ticket the most.

Of the precincts in this plan, Colquitt-Miller (Miller County) has the highest share of ticket splitters: 6.8 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.

Spend it where it counts.

As of June 30, 2026, Bishop had $448K in cash on hand to Day's $1,768. That is exactly why the plan puts every dollar on the few places listed here instead of the whole map.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Day's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

Precincts: 229
Slope: 0.935
R²: 0.994
Residual SD: 3.5 pts
Crossover precincts: 53

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Day's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The next 37 days

Voting starts October 13.

Now to October 5
Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with Day, with Bishop, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
October 6 to 12
Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 4,905 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before.
October 13 to 23
Bank the ballots
Advance in-person voting runs October 13 through October 30, and absentee ballots start going out October 5. Absentee ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on November 3. Chase every supporter's mail ballot request until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
October 24 to November 2
Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 26,413 of them live where Day is favored. Absentee ballots must be received by the county election office by 7 p.m. on November 3. Applications must be received by October 23.
November 3
Election day
Polls are open 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. and photo ID is required. Georgia has no same-day registration. A candidate needs a majority; if no one reaches 50 percent plus one, the top two meet in a December 1 runoff. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Official results in this district: the Democratic nominee carried the 2024 House race by 12.7 points; Harris carried the 2024 presidential race by 7.6 points; Warnock carried the 2022 U.S. Senate race by 9.2 points.

Day wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Bishop.
In Redbone (Lee County) and Precinct 1 (Schley County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
The national environment moves about 6.0 points toward Day's side between now and November 3.
No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The work

3,976 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 75,873 dials to 25,291 households, before the last ballot is cast.

25K

households on the target list

76K

dials across three attempts

3,976

live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

We run this list.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $8,457 at our published rates: 25,291 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

Run this plan How HyperPhonebank works ›Size your own program ›

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog

Matt Day (R)

A business owner from Douglas, Georgia, who founded the construction staffing company Glaziers on Demand in 2013, running as a self-described commonsense conservative focused on agriculture, manufacturing and lowering health care costs.

Cash on hand $1,768 and $206,344 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Favorite · incumbent

Sanford Bishop (D)

U.S. representative since 1993 and dean of Georgia's congressional delegation, a Blue Dog Democrat from Albany; he previously served in the Georgia House and the Georgia Senate, is a U.S. Army veteran, and holds a BA from Morehouse College and a JD from Emory University.

Cash on hand $447,808 and $1,126,530 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›Wikipedia ›

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.

September 26, 2026
Underdog plan published
Starting line: Bishop +9.4. Matt Day needs 23,055 net votes. Odds 9% today, 20% with the plan.

Questions

Can Matt Day win Georgia's 2nd Congressional District in 2026?

Only with help from the national environment. Campaign work can move about 8,463 net votes; the gap is 23,055. The rest would take a 6.0-point national shift.

Where are the votes Matt Day needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Redbone (Lee County), Colquitt-Miller (Miller County), Precinct 1 (Schley County), Chattahoochee (Muscogee County), Byron 2 (Peach County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does Matt Day need to persuade?

About 2,452 voters who lean Sanford Bishop today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 4,905 persuadable voters leaning Sanford Bishop.

When does early voting start in Georgia in 2026?

Advance in-person voting in Georgia runs October 13 through October 30, 2026. The registration deadline is October 5, absentee ballot applications must be received by October 23, and absentee ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on Election Day. Georgia requires a majority to win; if no candidate reaches 50 percent plus one, the top two meet in a runoff on December 1.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Georgia Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official Georgia Secretary of State returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.