Upset Brief · GA-04 · James Duffie (R) vs. Hank Johnson (D), incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 51.0-point national wave.

0%
odds today
0%
odds with the plan
127,985
net votes to find
37
days left; voting starts October 13
Where
  1. 01
    Duluth I (Gwinnett County)
    Starting line Duffie +7. 9.0% split their ticket.
    +123
  2. 02
    Pinckneyville M (Gwinnett County)
    Starting line Duffie +23. 8.0% split their ticket. About 456 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +118
  3. 03
    Ashford Dunwoody Rd (DeKalb County)
    Starting line Johnson +12. 9.8% split their ticket.
    +107
  4. 04
    Duluth A (Gwinnett County)
    Starting line Johnson +16. 6.6% split their ticket.
    +102
  5. 05
    Ashford Parkside (DeKalb County)
    Starting line Johnson +19. 8.8% split their ticket.
    +101
  6. 06
    Pinckneyville A1 (Gwinnett County)
    Starting line Duffie +15. 8.2% split their ticket. About 282 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +100

The top 12 precincts carry 22% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    5,086 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Johnson today.
    +5,086
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 1,277 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Duffie's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +76
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Duffie's way.
    +154

Plus a national shift of 51 points of margin (122,668 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Duffie wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Johnson.
  2. In Pinckneyville M (Gwinnett County) and Pinckneyville A1 (Gwinnett County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 51.0 points toward Duffie's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    168 precincts, R² 0.992, 29 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -150,811 to -94,761 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30
    Duffie no FEC totals reported; Johnson $117,906.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    8,205 households, 24,615 dials, about 1,290 live conversations: an estimated $3,865 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $3,865 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

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The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Georgia races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Georgia Secretary of State precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.