Georgia · U.S. House · District 4 · November 3, 2026

What it would take for James Duffie.

Johnson starts 53.2 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work can move about 5,316 net votes toward Duffie, a 2.2-point gain. Winning outright would take a 51.0-point national wave on top of that. Here is the plan that makes Duffie the one standing if one comes.

127,985

net votes between Duffie and a win

days to election day. Advance voting opens October 13.

53.2 pts

Johnson lead, our starting line from recent results

In short

One-page brief ›All Georgia races ranked ›

A long shot on the math: it takes a 51.0-point national wave.

Odds today0%

Odds with the plan0%

Net votes to find127,985

WhereDuluth I (Gwinnett County), Pinckneyville M (Gwinnett County), Ashford Dunwoody Rd (DeKalb County)

Underdog UpdateSeptember 26, 2026. Underdog plan published. Starting line: Johnson +53.2. James Duffie needs 127,985 net votes. Odds 0% today, 0% with the plan.

The number

120,212 votes.

That is half of the 240,422 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Duffie stands today, and what is missing:

55,460 James Duffie baseline

183,445 Hank Johnson baseline

Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022 and 2024 results in this district (House, President, U.S. Senate, Governor). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

0% today. A wave changes that.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

Duffie wins in

of 20,000 simulated elections

With no plan

How much of what history allows the campaign achieves100%

The plan on this page sits at 100%. Median outcome at this setting: Duffie short by 122,838.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade

5,086

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 5,086

Who. 5,086 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Johnson today.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Duffie needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Johnson.

Mobilize

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 1,277

Who. At least 1,277 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Duffie's side wins at least 55 percent.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate

154

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 441

Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Duffie's way.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 5,316 net votes against a gap of 127,985. Still 122,669 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 51 points that no campaign controls.

Where it is won

12 precincts carry 22% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset

01
Duluth I (Gwinnett County)persuade
Starting line Duffie +7. 9.0% split their ticket.
+123
02
Pinckneyville M (Gwinnett County)persuade
Starting line Duffie +23. 8.0% split their ticket. About 456 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+118
03
Ashford Dunwoody Rd (DeKalb County)persuade
Starting line Johnson +12. 9.8% split their ticket.
+107
04
Duluth A (Gwinnett County)persuade
Starting line Johnson +16. 6.6% split their ticket.
+102
05
Ashford Parkside (DeKalb County)persuade
Starting line Johnson +19. 8.8% split their ticket.
+101
06
Pinckneyville A1 (Gwinnett County)persuade
Starting line Duffie +15. 8.2% split their ticket. About 282 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+100
07
Mount Vernon East (DeKalb County)persuade
Starting line Duffie +2. 9.3% split their ticket.
+95
08
Chamblee 2 (DeKalb County)persuade
Starting line Johnson +26. 8.8% split their ticket.
+94
09
Austin (DeKalb County)persuade
Starting line Duffie +4. 9.2% split their ticket.
+93
10
Pinckneyville L (Gwinnett County)persuade
Starting line Duffie +15. 8.2% split their ticket. About 289 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+89
11
Pinckneyville H (Gwinnett County)persuade
Starting line Johnson +12. 5.9% split their ticket.
+86
12
Dunwoody Library (DeKalb County)persuade
Starting line Duffie +3. 8.5% split their ticket.
+84

What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

Duluth I (Gwinnett County) carries the most.

Duluth I (Gwinnett County) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 123. It sits at Duffie +7 on our starting line, and 9.0 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.

Pinckneyville M (Gwinnett County) is a turnout race.

Duffie's side leads Pinckneyville M (Gwinnett County) by about 23 points on our starting line, and it cast about 456 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (an estimate). Roughly that many of its 2024 voters sat out the last midterm; bringing enough of them back nets 36 votes there.

Ashford Dunwoody Rd (DeKalb County) splits its ticket the most.

Of the precincts in this plan, Ashford Dunwoody Rd (DeKalb County) has the highest share of ticket splitters: 9.8 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.

The honest math.

Every lever at its historical ceiling moves 5,316 net votes. The gap is 127,985. That is the measure of what a strong campaign adds: 2.2 points of margin, and first position if the national mood breaks.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Duffie's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

Precincts: 168
Slope: 1.082
R²: 0.992
Residual SD: 2.9 pts
Crossover precincts: 29

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Duffie's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The next 37 days

Voting starts October 13.

Now to October 5
Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with Duffie, with Johnson, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
October 6 to 12
Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 5,086 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before.
October 13 to 23
Bank the ballots
Advance in-person voting runs October 13 through October 30, and absentee ballots start going out October 5. Absentee ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on November 3. Chase every supporter's mail ballot request until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
October 24 to November 2
Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 1,277 of them live where Duffie is favored. Absentee ballots must be received by the county election office by 7 p.m. on November 3. Applications must be received by October 23.
November 3
Election day
Polls are open 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. and photo ID is required. Georgia has no same-day registration. A candidate needs a majority; if no one reaches 50 percent plus one, the top two meet in a December 1 runoff. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Official results in this district: the Democratic nominee carried the 2024 House race by 51.2 points; Harris carried the 2024 presidential race by 52.5 points; Warnock carried the 2022 U.S. Senate race by 59.7 points.

Duffie wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Johnson.
In Pinckneyville M (Gwinnett County) and Pinckneyville A1 (Gwinnett County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
The national environment moves about 51.0 points toward Duffie's side between now and November 3.
No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The work

1,290 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 24,615 dials to 8,205 households, before the last ballot is cast.

8,205

households on the target list

25K

dials across three attempts

1,290

live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

We run this list.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $3,865 at our published rates: 8,205 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

Run this plan How HyperPhonebank works ›Size your own program ›

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog

James Duffie (R)

U.S. Navy veteran (1961 to 1968) of the nuclear submarine service who attended Georgia Tech and has worked as a company president and CEO; a longtime FairTax advocate who served as state director and vice chairman of Georgians for Fair Taxation.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Favorite · incumbent

Hank Johnson (D)

U.S. representative since 2007; he previously served on the DeKalb County Commission (2001 to 2006) and as a DeKalb County magistrate judge (1989 to 2001), and holds a BA from Clark Atlanta University and a JD from Texas Southern University.

Cash on hand $117,906 and $402,315 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›Wikipedia ›

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.

September 26, 2026
Underdog plan published
Starting line: Johnson +53.2. James Duffie needs 127,985 net votes. Odds 0% today, 0% with the plan.

Questions

Can James Duffie win Georgia's 4th Congressional District in 2026?

Only with help from the national environment. Campaign work can move about 5,316 net votes; the gap is 127,985. The rest would take a 51.0-point national shift.

Where are the votes James Duffie needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Duluth I (Gwinnett County), Pinckneyville M (Gwinnett County), Ashford Dunwoody Rd (DeKalb County), Duluth A (Gwinnett County), Ashford Parkside (DeKalb County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does James Duffie need to persuade?

About 2,543 voters who lean Hank Johnson today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 5,086 persuadable voters leaning Hank Johnson.

When does early voting start in Georgia in 2026?

Advance in-person voting in Georgia runs October 13 through October 30, 2026. The registration deadline is October 5, absentee ballot applications must be received by October 23, and absentee ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on Election Day. Georgia requires a majority to win; if no candidate reaches 50 percent plus one, the top two meet in a runoff on December 1.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Georgia Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official Georgia Secretary of State returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.