A long shot on the math: it takes a 69.9-point national wave.

1. 01
   Silver Lake (DeKalb County)

   Starting line Williams +16. 7.6% split their ticket.
   +113
2. 02
   Precinct 08L (Fulton County)

   Starting line Williams +43. 8.3% split their ticket.
   +109
3. 03
   06d1 (Fulton County)

   Starting line Williams +59. 8.1% split their ticket.
   +106
4. 04
   Ashford Park Elem (DeKalb County)

   Starting line Williams +5. 11.3% split their ticket.
   +102
5. 05
   Brookhaven (DeKalb County)

   Starting line Williams +18. 8.2% split their ticket.
   +92
6. 06
   Sagamore Hills Elem (DeKalb County)

   Starting line Williams +43. 7.1% split their ticket.
   +85

The top 12 precincts carry 18% of the plan.

• P
  Persuade

  5,800 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Williams today.
  +5,800
• M
  Mobilize

  There are almost no precincts Salvesen's side carries, so turnout alone cannot help here.
  +0
• C
  Consolidate

  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Salvesen's way.
  +88

Plus a national shift of 69.9 points of margin (196,851 votes) that no campaign controls.

1. Salvesen wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Williams.
2. The national environment moves about 69.9 points toward Salvesen's side between now and November 3.
3. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

• 01
  Crossover regression

  262 precincts, R² 0.980, 46 crossover precincts identified
• 02
  Monte Carlo

  20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -229,892 to -163,955 votes.
• 03
  Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30

  Salvesen no FEC totals reported; Williams $76,092.
• 04
  Call program for this list

  8,178 households, 24,535 dials, about 1,286 live conversations: an estimated $3,853 at published rates.