Georgia · U.S. House · District 5 · November 3, 2026

What it would take for John Salvesen.

Williams starts 71.9 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work can move about 5,888 net votes toward Salvesen, a 2.1-point gain. Winning outright would take a 69.9-point national wave on top of that. Here is the plan that makes Salvesen the one standing if one comes.

202,740

net votes between Salvesen and a win

days to election day. Advance voting opens October 13.

71.9 pts

Williams lead, our starting line from recent results

In short

One-page brief ›All Georgia races ranked ›

A long shot on the math: it takes a 69.9-point national wave.

Odds today0%

Odds with the plan0%

Net votes to find202,740

WhereSilver Lake (DeKalb County), Precinct 08L (Fulton County), 06d1 (Fulton County)

Underdog UpdateSeptember 26, 2026. Underdog plan published. Starting line: Williams +71.9. John Salvesen needs 202,740 net votes. Odds 0% today, 0% with the plan.

The number

140,905 votes.

That is half of the 281,808 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Salvesen stands today, and what is missing:

38,724 John Salvesen baseline

241,463 Nikema Williams baseline

Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022 and 2024 results in this district (House, President, U.S. Senate, Governor). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

0% today. A wave changes that.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

Salvesen wins in

of 20,000 simulated elections

With no plan

How much of what history allows the campaign achieves100%

The plan on this page sits at 100%. Median outcome at this setting: Salvesen short by 196,720.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade

5,800

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 5,800

Who. 5,800 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Williams today.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Salvesen needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Williams.

Mobilize

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 0

Who. There are almost no precincts Salvesen's side carries, so turnout alone cannot help here.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 252

Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Salvesen's way.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 5,888 net votes against a gap of 202,740. Still 196,852 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 69.9 points that no campaign controls.

Where it is won

12 precincts carry 18% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset

01
Silver Lake (DeKalb County)persuade
Starting line Williams +16. 7.6% split their ticket.
+113
02
Precinct 08L (Fulton County)persuade
Starting line Williams +43. 8.3% split their ticket.
+109
03
06d1 (Fulton County)persuade
Starting line Williams +59. 8.1% split their ticket.
+106
04
Ashford Park Elem (DeKalb County)persuade
Starting line Williams +5. 11.3% split their ticket.
+102
05
Brookhaven (DeKalb County)persuade
Starting line Williams +18. 8.2% split their ticket.
+92
06
Sagamore Hills Elem (DeKalb County)persuade
Starting line Williams +43. 7.1% split their ticket.
+85
07
Lakeside High (DeKalb County)persuade
Starting line Williams +37. 7.1% split their ticket.
+84
08
Briarcliff (DeKalb County)persuade
Starting line Williams +33. 7.6% split their ticket.
+76
09
Avondale (DeKalb County)persuade
Starting line Williams +61. 5.5% split their ticket.
+72
10
Clairemont East (DeKalb County)persuade
Starting line Williams +73. 5.7% split their ticket.
+71
11
Skyland (DeKalb County)persuade
Starting line Williams +12. 9.4% split their ticket.
+71
12
Precinct 02A (Fulton County)persuade
Starting line Williams +64. 6.6% split their ticket.
+70

What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

Silver Lake (DeKalb County) carries the most.

Silver Lake (DeKalb County) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 113. It sits at Williams +16 on our starting line, and 7.6 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.

Ashford Park Elem (DeKalb County) splits its ticket the most.

Of the precincts in this plan, Ashford Park Elem (DeKalb County) has the highest share of ticket splitters: 11.3 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.

The honest math.

Every lever at its historical ceiling moves 5,888 net votes. The gap is 202,740. That is the measure of what a strong campaign adds: 2.1 points of margin, and first position if the national mood breaks.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Salvesen's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

Precincts: 262
Slope: 1.062
R²: 0.980
Residual SD: 2.6 pts
Crossover precincts: 46

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Salvesen's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The next 37 days

Voting starts October 13.

Now to October 5
Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with Salvesen, with Williams, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
October 6 to 12
Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 5,800 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before.
October 13 to 23
Bank the ballots
Advance in-person voting runs October 13 through October 30, and absentee ballots start going out October 5. Absentee ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on November 3. Chase every supporter's mail ballot request until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
October 24 to November 2
Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 0 of them live where Salvesen is favored. Absentee ballots must be received by the county election office by 7 p.m. on November 3. Applications must be received by October 23.
November 3
Election day
Polls are open 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. and photo ID is required. Georgia has no same-day registration. A candidate needs a majority; if no one reaches 50 percent plus one, the top two meet in a December 1 runoff. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Official results in this district: the Democratic nominee carried the 2024 House race by 71.4 points; Harris carried the 2024 presidential race by 71.6 points; Warnock carried the 2022 U.S. Senate race by 77.0 points.

Salvesen wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Williams.
The national environment moves about 69.9 points toward Salvesen's side between now and November 3.
No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The work

1,286 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 24,535 dials to 8,178 households, before the last ballot is cast.

8,178

households on the target list

25K

dials across three attempts

1,286

live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

We run this list.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $3,853 at our published rates: 8,178 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

Run this plan How HyperPhonebank works ›Size your own program ›

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog

John Salvesen (R)

John "Bongo" Salvesen is a handyman and festival organizer with a background in the construction industry.

FEC filings ›

Favorite · incumbent

Nikema Williams (D)

U.S. representative since 2021, succeeding the late John Lewis; she served in the Georgia State Senate (39th district, 2017 to 2021) and as chair of the Democratic Party of Georgia (2019 to 2025), and holds a BA from Talladega College.

Cash on hand $76,092 and $599,715 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›Wikipedia ›

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.

September 26, 2026
Underdog plan published
Starting line: Williams +71.9. John Salvesen needs 202,740 net votes. Odds 0% today, 0% with the plan.

Questions

Can John Salvesen win Georgia's 5th Congressional District in 2026?

Only with help from the national environment. Campaign work can move about 5,888 net votes; the gap is 202,740. The rest would take a 69.9-point national shift.

Where are the votes John Salvesen needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Silver Lake (DeKalb County), Precinct 08L (Fulton County), 06d1 (Fulton County), Ashford Park Elem (DeKalb County), Brookhaven (DeKalb County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does John Salvesen need to persuade?

About 2,900 voters who lean Nikema Williams today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 5,800 persuadable voters leaning Nikema Williams.

When does early voting start in Georgia in 2026?

Advance in-person voting in Georgia runs October 13 through October 30, 2026. The registration deadline is October 5, absentee ballot applications must be received by October 23, and absentee ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on Election Day. Georgia requires a majority to win; if no candidate reaches 50 percent plus one, the top two meet in a runoff on December 1.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Georgia Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official Georgia Secretary of State returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.