Upset Brief · GA-06 · Kevin Martin (R) vs. Lucy McBath (D), incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 46.5-point national wave.

0%
odds today
0%
odds with the plan
142,967
net votes to find
37
days left; voting starts October 13
Where
  1. 01
    Smyrna 6A (Cobb County)
    Starting line McBath +20. 7.8% split their ticket.
    +152
  2. 02
    Precinct 08J (Fulton County)
    Starting line McBath +15. 13.6% split their ticket.
    +145
  3. 03
    Smyrna 4A (Cobb County)
    Starting line McBath +22. 7.0% split their ticket.
    +143
  4. 04
    Precinct 07B (Fulton County)
    Starting line Martin +12. 11.2% split their ticket. About 344 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +138
  5. 05
    Smyrna 7A (Cobb County)
    Starting line McBath +49. 6.0% split their ticket.
    +138
  6. 06
    Precinct 08B (Fulton County)
    Starting line Martin +1. 11.0% split their ticket.
    +137

The top 12 precincts carry 21% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    7,125 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean McBath today.
    +7,125
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 1,280 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Martin's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +83
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Martin's way.
    +165

Plus a national shift of 46.5 points of margin (135,594 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Martin wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning McBath.
  2. In Precinct 07B (Fulton County) and 08f1 (Fulton County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 46.5 points toward Martin's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    240 precincts, R² 0.993, 31 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -169,091 to -102,205 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through March 31
    Martin $100 cash on hand; McBath $676,349.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    11,042 households, 33,125 dials, about 1,736 live conversations: an estimated $4,927 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $4,927 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

A program on this list with a dashboard you can watch daily: conversations, voter IDs and ballots chased, precinct by precinct.

The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Georgia races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Georgia Secretary of State precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.