Kozycki can win. The math closes using 35 percent of what history allows.

1. 01
   Windermere (Forsyth County)

   Starting line Kozycki +2. 8.0% split their ticket.
   +447
2. 02
   Nichols (Forsyth County)

   Starting line Kozycki +2. 8.3% split their ticket.
   +421
3. 03
   Johns Creek (Forsyth County)

   Starting line Kozycki +8. 8.1% split their ticket.
   +389
4. 04
   Rw01 (Fulton County)

   Starting line Kozycki +10. 8.5% split their ticket.
   +341
5. 05
   Ap01a (Fulton County)

   Starting line Kozycki +24. 9.0% split their ticket.
   +315
6. 06
   Lakeland (Forsyth County)

   Starting line Kozycki +5. 7.7% split their ticket.
   +305

The top 12 precincts carry 33% of the plan.

• P
  Persuade

  Ticket splitters and the 11 percent still undecided in the latest poll: 29,367 leaning McCormick today.
  +10,307
• M
  Mobilize

  At least 33,471 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Kozycki's side wins at least 55 percent.
  +1,344
• C
  Consolidate

  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Kozycki's way.
  +168

1. Kozycki wins 18 percent of the ticket splitters and undecided voters now leaning McCormick.
2. No national wave is required. The plan closes at 35 percent of what recent Georgia results show is possible.
3. The starting line comes from published 2026 polls, including campaign or party sponsored polls where those are the only ones; if the true gap is different, so is the plan.

• 01
  Crossover regression

  174 precincts, R² 0.991, 39 crossover precincts identified
• 02
  Monte Carlo

  20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 5-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -27,178 to 28,842 votes.
• 03
  Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30

  Kozycki $277,427 cash on hand; McCormick $1,007,984.
• 04
  Call program for this list

  19,111 households, 57,334 dials, about 3,004 live conversations: an estimated $7,104 at published rates.