Kozycki can win. The plan uses 35 percent of what history allows.

1. 01
   Windermere (Forsyth County)

   Starting line Kozycki +2. 8.0% split their ticket.
   +447
2. 02
   Nichols (Forsyth County)

   Starting line Kozycki +1. 8.3% split their ticket.
   +421
3. 03
   Johns Creek (Forsyth County)

   Starting line Kozycki +8. 8.1% split their ticket.
   +389
4. 04
   Precinct RW01 (Fulton County)

   Starting line Kozycki +9. 8.5% split their ticket.
   +341
5. 05
   Precinct AP01A (Fulton County)

   Starting line Kozycki +23. 9.0% split their ticket.
   +315
6. 06
   Lakeland (Forsyth County)

   Starting line Kozycki +4. 7.7% split their ticket.
   +305

The top 12 precincts carry 33% of the plan.

• P
  Persuade

  29,015 voters in play: ticket splitters now leaning McCormick, plus the 11 percent still undecided in the latest poll.
  +10,179
• M
  Mobilize

  At least 32,833 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Kozycki's side wins at least 55 percent.
  +1,312
• C
  Consolidate

  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Kozycki's way.
  +166

1. Kozycki wins 18 percent of the ticket splitters and undecided voters now leaning McCormick.
2. No national wave is required. The plan uses 35 percent of what recent Georgia results show is possible.
3. The starting line comes from the published 2026 head-to-head polls between these two finalists, sponsored ones included; if the true gap is different, so is the plan.

• 01
  Crossover regression

  174 precincts, R² 0.991, 39 crossover precincts identified
• 02
  Monte Carlo

  20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 5-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -26,804 to 28,445 votes.
• 03
  Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30

  Kozycki $277,427 cash on hand; McCormick $1,007,984.
• 04
  Call program for this list

  18,849 households, 56,546 dials, about 2,963 live conversations: an estimated $7,006 at published rates.