Georgia · U.S. House · District 7 · November 3, 2026

What it would have taken for Tony Kozycki.

Before the election, as last updated September 26, 2026: McCormick starts 3.4 points ahead on our starting line from 2026 polls. Kozycki needs 11,102 net votes, and the plan uses 35 percent of what history allows. The most net votes are in Windermere (Forsyth County), Nichols (Forsyth County) and Johns Creek (Forsyth County).

11,102

net votes between Kozycki and a win

Lost

Rich McCormick won. Election held November 3, 2026.

3.4 pts

McCormick lead, our starting line from 2026 polls

The result · November 3, 2026

Rich McCormick won.

Tony Kozycki finished 9.0 points behind our starting line. The plan below stays up as the record of what it would have taken.

Rich McCormick · Republican ✓56.2%

Tony Kozycki · Democratic43.8%

Projected winner; unofficial results until the state certifies. Source · Second source

In short

One-page brief ›All Georgia races ranked ›

Kozycki can win. The plan uses 35 percent of what history allows.

Odds today25%

Odds with the plan52%

Net votes to find11,102

WhereWindermere (Forsyth County), Nichols (Forsyth County), Johns Creek (Forsyth County)

Underdog UpdateNovember 5, 2026. Result: Tony Kozycki lost. Unofficial result: Tony Kozycki 43.8%, Rich McCormick 56.2%, a margin of 12.4 points. Our starting line had McCormick +3.4; Kozycki fell short of that line by 9.0 points. This page stays up as the record of the plan and how it compared with the outcome.

The number

164,673 votes.

That is half of the 329,345 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Kozycki stands today, and what is missing:

157,749 Tony Kozycki baseline

168,851 Rich McCormick baseline

Starting line: McCormick +3.4 among decided voters, from published 2026 polls, applied to each precinct's pattern in the 2022 and 2024 official returns. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

25% today. 52% with the plan.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

Kozycki wins in

52%

of 20,000 simulated elections

With no plan

25%

How much of what history allows the campaign achieves35%

The plan on this page sits at 35%. Median outcome at this setting: Kozycki by 814.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 5 points of margin (the starting line comes from 2026 polls) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade

10K

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 29,015

Who. 29,015 voters in play: ticket splitters now leaning McCormick, plus the 11 percent still undecided in the latest poll.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Kozycki needs to win 18 percent of the ones now leaning McCormick.

Mobilize

1,312

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 32,833

Who. At least 32,833 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Kozycki's side wins at least 55 percent.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate

166

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 1,354

Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Kozycki's way.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 11,657 net votes against a gap of 11,102. That is a win.

Where it is won

12 precincts carry 33% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset

01
Windermere (Forsyth County)persuade
Starting line Kozycki +2. 8.0% split their ticket.
+447
02
Nichols (Forsyth County)persuade
Starting line Kozycki +1. 8.3% split their ticket.
+421
03
Johns Creek (Forsyth County)persuade
Starting line Kozycki +8. 8.1% split their ticket.
+389
04
Precinct RW01 (Fulton County)persuade
Starting line Kozycki +9. 8.5% split their ticket.
+341
05
Precinct AP01A (Fulton County)persuade
Starting line Kozycki +23. 9.0% split their ticket.
+315
06
Lakeland (Forsyth County)persuade
Starting line Kozycki +4. 7.7% split their ticket.
+305
07
Precinct AP05 (Fulton County)persuade
Starting line Kozycki +17. 7.7% split their ticket.
+282
08
Precinct RW02 (Fulton County)persuade
Starting line Kozycki +20. 8.4% split their ticket.
+278
09
Precinct ML05 (Fulton County)persuade
Starting line Kozycki +16. 7.7% split their ticket.
+273
10
Precinct RW09 (Fulton County)persuade
Starting line McCormick +3. 8.2% split their ticket.
+266
11
Precinct AP09A (Fulton County)persuade
Starting line Kozycki +28. 8.5% split their ticket.
+262
12
Precinct JC07 (Fulton County)persuade
Starting line Kozycki +32. 8.0% split their ticket.
+256

What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

Windermere (Forsyth County) carries the most.

Windermere (Forsyth County) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 447. It sits at Kozycki +2 on our starting line, and 8.0 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.

Precinct AP01A (Fulton County) splits its ticket the most.

Of the precincts in this plan, Precinct AP01A (Fulton County) has the highest share of ticket splitters: 9.0 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.

Spend it where it counts.

As of June 30, 2026, McCormick had $1.01 million in cash on hand to Kozycki's $277K. That is exactly why the plan ranks every place by net votes and spends in that order instead of across the whole map.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Kozycki's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

Precincts: 174
Slope: 0.944
R²: 0.991
Residual SD: 2.8 pts
Crossover precincts: 39

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Kozycki's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The plan, as published

The calendar it ran on.

Now to October 5
Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with Kozycki, with McCormick, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
October 6 to 12
Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 10,179 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before. Every supporter it finds goes straight onto the ballot chase.
October 13 to 23
Bank the ballots
Advance in-person voting runs October 13 through October 30, and absentee ballots start going out October 5. Absentee ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on November 3. Chase every supporter's mail ballot until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open. Applications must be received by October 23.
October 24 to November 2
Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 32,833 of them live where Kozycki is favored. Absentee ballots must be received by the county election office by 7 p.m. on November 3.
November 3
Election day
Polls are open 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. and photo ID is required. Georgia has no same-day registration. A candidate needs a majority; if no one reaches 50 percent plus one, the top two meet in a December 1 runoff. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Official results in this district: the Republican nominee carried the 2024 House race by 29.7 points; Trump carried the 2024 presidential race by 22.1 points; Walker carried the 2022 U.S. Senate race by 19.3 points.

Kozycki wins 18 percent of the ticket splitters and undecided voters now leaning McCormick.
No national wave is required. The plan uses 35 percent of what recent Georgia results show is possible.
The starting line comes from the published 2026 head-to-head polls between these two finalists, sponsored ones included; if the true gap is different, so is the plan.

The work

2,963 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan called for: about 56,546 dials to 18,849 households, before the last ballot was cast.

19K

households on the target list

57K

dials across three attempts

2,963

live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

Running next cycle? We run lists like this.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $7,006 at our published rates: 18,849 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

Plan your next race How HyperPhonebank works ›Size your own program ›

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog

Tony Kozycki (D)

Raised in LaGrange, he served in the U.S. Navy from 2004 to 2017 after entering the U.S. Naval Academy (class of 2008), flying the F/A-18 Super Hornet as a naval aviator, completing three combat deployments and earning three Air Medals; he is now an immigration attorney with a law degree from Georgia State University.

Cash on hand $277,427 and $392,831 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Favorite · incumbent

Rich McCormick (R)

U.S. representative since 2023 (6th District until 2025, 7th since) and an emergency physician; he served two decades in the U.S. Marine Corps and U.S. Navy, reaching the rank of commander, and holds a BS from Oregon State University, an MBA from National University and an MD from Morehouse School of Medicine.

Cash on hand $1,007,984 and $1,642,413 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›Wikipedia ›

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-ran this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrived, and logged the result against the plan. Every change is listed here.

November 5, 2026
Result: Tony Kozycki lost
Unofficial result: Tony Kozycki 43.8%, Rich McCormick 56.2%, a margin of 12.4 points. Our starting line had McCormick +3.4; Kozycki fell short of that line by 9.0 points. This page stays up as the record of the plan and how it compared with the outcome.
September 26, 2026
Underdog plan published
Starting line: McCormick +3.4. Tony Kozycki needs 11,256 net votes. Odds 25% today, 52% with the plan.

Questions

Who won GA-07 in 2026?

Rich McCormick won on November 3, 2026. Unofficial result: Tony Kozycki 43.8%, Rich McCormick 56.2%, a margin of 12.4 points. Our starting line had McCormick +3.4; Kozycki fell short of that line by 9.0 points.

Can Tony Kozycki win Georgia's 7th Congressional District in 2026?

Yes, on the math. Tony Kozycki needs 11,102 net votes, and recent Georgia results show about 33,228 are reachable through persuasion, turnout and third-party voters. The plan closes the gap using 35 percent of that.

Where are the votes Tony Kozycki needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Windermere (Forsyth County), Nichols (Forsyth County), Johns Creek (Forsyth County), Precinct RW01 (Fulton County), Precinct AP01A (Fulton County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does Tony Kozycki need to persuade?

About 5,090 voters who lean Rich McCormick today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 18 percent of the 29,015 persuadable voters leaning Rich McCormick.

When does early voting start in Georgia in 2026?

Advance in-person voting in Georgia runs October 13 through October 30, 2026. The registration deadline is October 5, absentee ballot applications must be received by October 23, and absentee ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on Election Day. Georgia requires a majority to win; if no candidate reaches 50 percent plus one, the top two meet in a runoff on December 1.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Georgia Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official Georgia Secretary of State returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (5 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.