How Tony Kozycki wins.
McCormick starts 3.4 points ahead on our starting line from 2026 polls. Kozycki needs 11,256 net votes, and the math closes using 35 percent of what history allows. The most net votes are in Windermere (Forsyth County), Nichols (Forsyth County) and Johns Creek (Forsyth County).
Kozycki can win. The math closes using 35 percent of what history allows.
166,970 votes.
That is half of the 333,938 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Kozycki stands today, and what is missing:
Starting line: McCormick +3.4 among decided voters, from published 2026 polls, applied to each precinct's pattern in the 2022 and 2024 official returns. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.
25% today. 52% with the plan.
We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.
Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 5 points of margin (the starting line comes from 2026 polls) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.
The gap closes three ways.
Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.
Who. Ticket splitters and the 11 percent still undecided in the latest poll: 29,367 leaning McCormick today.
How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Kozycki needs to win 18 percent of the ones now leaning McCormick.
Who. At least 33,471 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Kozycki's side wins at least 55 percent.
How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.
Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Kozycki's way.
How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.
Together: 11,819 net votes against a gap of 11,256. That is a win.
12 precincts carry 33% of it.
Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.
- 01+447Windermere (Forsyth County)persuadeStarting line Kozycki +2. 8.0% split their ticket.
- 02+421Nichols (Forsyth County)persuadeStarting line Kozycki +2. 8.3% split their ticket.
- 03+389Johns Creek (Forsyth County)persuadeStarting line Kozycki +8. 8.1% split their ticket.
- 04+341Rw01 (Fulton County)persuadeStarting line Kozycki +10. 8.5% split their ticket.
- 05+315Ap01a (Fulton County)persuadeStarting line Kozycki +24. 9.0% split their ticket.
- 06+305Lakeland (Forsyth County)persuadeStarting line Kozycki +5. 7.7% split their ticket.
- 07+282Ap05 (Fulton County)persuadeStarting line Kozycki +17. 7.7% split their ticket.
- 08+278Rw02 (Fulton County)persuadeStarting line Kozycki +20. 8.4% split their ticket.
- 09+273Ml05 (Fulton County)persuadeStarting line Kozycki +16. 7.7% split their ticket.
- 10+266Rw09 (Fulton County)persuadeStarting line McCormick +2. 8.2% split their ticket.
- 11+263Ap09a (Fulton County)persuadeStarting line Kozycki +28. 8.5% split their ticket.
- 12+256Jc07 (Fulton County)persuadeStarting line Kozycki +32. 8.0% split their ticket.
The hidden path.
Windermere (Forsyth County) carries the most.
Windermere (Forsyth County) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 447. It sits at Kozycki +2 on our starting line, and 8.0 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.
Ap01a (Fulton County) splits its ticket the most.
Of the precincts in this plan, Ap01a (Fulton County) has the highest share of ticket splitters: 9.0 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.
Spend it where it counts.
As of June 30, 2026, McCormick had $1.01 million in cash on hand to Kozycki's $277K. That is exactly why the plan puts every dollar on the few places listed here instead of the whole map.
Where voters cross over.
Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Kozycki's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.
- Precincts
- 174
- Slope
- 0.944
- R²
- 0.991
- Residual SD
- 2.8 pts
- Crossover precincts
- 39
Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Kozycki's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.
Voting starts October 13.
- Now to October 5Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with Kozycki, with McCormick, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
- October 6 to 12Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 10,307 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before.
- October 13 to 23Bank the ballots
Advance in-person voting runs October 13 through October 30, and absentee ballots start going out October 5. Absentee ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on November 3. Chase every supporter's mail ballot request until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
- October 24 to November 2Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 33,471 of them live where Kozycki is favored. Absentee ballots must be received by the county election office by 7 p.m. on November 3. Applications must be received by October 23.
- November 3Election day
Polls are open 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. and photo ID is required. Georgia has no same-day registration. A candidate needs a majority; if no one reaches 50 percent plus one, the top two meet in a December 1 runoff. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.
No wishful thinking.
Official results in this district: the Republican nominee carried the 2024 House race by 29.7 points; Trump carried the 2024 presidential race by 22.1 points; Walker carried the 2022 U.S. Senate race by 19.3 points.
- Kozycki wins 18 percent of the ticket splitters and undecided voters now leaning McCormick.
- No national wave is required. The plan closes at 35 percent of what recent Georgia results show is possible.
- The starting line comes from published 2026 polls, including campaign or party sponsored polls where those are the only ones; if the true gap is different, so is the plan.
3,004 conversations.
That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 57,334 dials to 19,111 households, before the last ballot is cast.
Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.
We run this list.
Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $7,104 at our published rates: 19,111 households, three attempts each.
Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.
Who is on the ballot.
Tony Kozycki (D)
Raised in LaGrange, he served in the U.S. Navy from 2004 to 2017 after entering the U.S. Naval Academy (class of 2008), flying the F/A-18 Super Hornet as a naval aviator, completing three combat deployments and earning three Air Medals; he is now an immigration attorney with a law degree from Georgia State University.
Cash on hand $277,427 and $392,831 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.
Rich McCormick (R)
U.S. representative since 2023 (6th District until 2025, 7th since) and an emergency physician; he served two decades in the U.S. Marine Corps and U.S. Navy, reaching the rank of commander, and holds a BS from Oregon State University, an MBA from National University and an MD from Morehouse School of Medicine.
Cash on hand $1,007,984 and $1,642,413 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.
What changed, and when.
We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.
- September 26, 2026Underdog plan published
Starting line: McCormick +3.4. Tony Kozycki needs 11,256 net votes. Odds 25% today, 52% with the plan.
Questions
Can Tony Kozycki win Georgia's 7th Congressional District in 2026?
Yes, on the math. Tony Kozycki needs 11,256 net votes, and recent Georgia results show about 33,674 are reachable through persuasion, turnout and third-party voters. The plan closes the gap using 35 percent of that.
Where are the votes Tony Kozycki needs?
Ranked by net votes in the plan: Windermere (Forsyth County), Nichols (Forsyth County), Johns Creek (Forsyth County), Rw01 (Fulton County), Ap01a (Fulton County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.
How many voters does Tony Kozycki need to persuade?
About 5,154 voters who lean Rich McCormick today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 18 percent of the 29,367 persuadable voters leaning Rich McCormick.
When does early voting start in Georgia in 2026?
Advance in-person voting in Georgia runs October 13 through October 30, 2026. The registration deadline is October 5, absentee ballot applications must be received by October 23, and absentee ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on Election Day. Georgia requires a majority to win; if no candidate reaches 50 percent plus one, the top two meet in a runoff on December 1.
Who made this analysis?
The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Georgia Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.
Method and sources
Precinct math from official Georgia Secretary of State returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.
Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (5 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.
- Georgia Secretary of State, election results
- Georgia Secretary of State, elections
- FEC candidate filings (OpenFEC)
- 2026 voter contact benchmarks (The Political Group)
- Poll: 20/20 Insight (D) (2026-08-20 to 2026-08-26)
Race coverage
- Wikipedia: Georgia's 7th congressional district
- Wikipedia: Rich McCormick
- Ballotpedia: Georgia's 7th Congressional District election, 2026
- Ballotpedia: Tony Kozycki