Upset Brief · GA-08 · Kelly Esti (D) vs. Austin Scott (R), incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 32.6-point national wave.

0%
odds today
0%
odds with the plan
92,606
net votes to find
Austin Scott won
result of the November 3, 2026 election
Where
  1. 01
    Lowndes Civic (Lowndes County)
    Starting line Esti +31. 2.8% split their ticket. About 1,427 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +206
  2. 02
    Rozr (Houston County)
    Starting line Scott +39. 4.0% split their ticket.
    +157
  3. 03
    Rainwater (Lowndes County)
    Starting line Scott +28. 3.6% split their ticket.
    +154
  4. 04
    Mott-Litman Gym (Tift County)
    Starting line Esti +46. 15.1% split their ticket. About 366 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +141
  5. 05
    Bms (Houston County)
    Starting line Scott +35. 4.5% split their ticket.
    +135
  6. 06
    Mt. Calvary Church (Lowndes County)
    Starting line Esti +41. 5.2% split their ticket. About 806 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +130

The top 12 precincts carry 25% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    5,267 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Scott today.
    +5,267
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 7,921 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Esti's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +905
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Esti's way.
    +132

Plus a national shift of 32.6 points of margin (86,302 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Esti wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Scott.
  2. In Lowndes Civic (Lowndes County) and Mt. Calvary Church (Lowndes County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. It would take a national shift of about 32.6 points toward Esti's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    225 precincts, R² 0.988, 27 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -117,295 to -55,466 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30
    Esti $1,688 cash on hand; Scott $1,349,452.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    12,994 households, 38,983 dials, about 2,043 live conversations: an estimated $5,476 at published rates.
For the campaign

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For donors, PACs and committees

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The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Georgia races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Georgia Secretary of State precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.