What it would have taken for Kelly Esti.
Before the election, as last updated September 26, 2026: Scott starts 35.0 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work can move about 6,304 net votes toward Esti, a 2.4-point gain. Winning outright would take a 32.6-point national wave on top of that. Here is the plan that makes Esti the one standing if one comes.
Austin Scott won.
Kelly Esti ran 14.2 points ahead of our starting line. The plan below stays up as the record of what it would have taken.
Projected winner; unofficial results until the state certifies. Source · Second source
A long shot on the math: it takes a 32.6-point national wave.
132,229 votes.
That is half of the 264,456 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Esti stands today, and what is missing:
Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022 and 2024 results in this district (House, President, U.S. Senate, Governor). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.
0% today. A wave changes that.
We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.
Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.
The gap closes three ways.
Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.
Who. 5,267 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Scott today.
How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Esti needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Scott.
Who. At least 7,921 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Esti's side wins at least 55 percent.
How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.
Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Esti's way.
How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.
Together: 6,304 net votes against a gap of 92,606. Still 86,302 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 32.6 points that no campaign controls.
12 precincts carry 25% of it.
Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.
- 01+206Lowndes Civic (Lowndes County)mobilizeStarting line Esti +31. 2.8% split their ticket. About 1,427 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 02+157Rozr (Houston County)persuadeStarting line Scott +39. 4.0% split their ticket.
- 03+154Rainwater (Lowndes County)persuadeStarting line Scott +28. 3.6% split their ticket.
- 04+141Mott-Litman Gym (Tift County)persuadeStarting line Esti +46. 15.1% split their ticket. About 366 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 05+135Bms (Houston County)persuadeStarting line Scott +35. 4.5% split their ticket.
- 06+130Mt. Calvary Church (Lowndes County)mobilizeStarting line Esti +41. 5.2% split their ticket. About 806 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 07+110Ashburn (Turner County)persuadeStarting line Esti +22. 13.6% split their ticket. About 253 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 08+108McMs (Houston County)persuadeStarting line Scott +24. 4.0% split their ticket.
- 09+107Tms (Houston County)mobilizeStarting line Esti +15. 3.0% split their ticket. About 1,325 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 10+105East (Ben Hill County)persuadeStarting line Scott +35. 4.0% split their ticket.
- 11+105Elections Office (Lowndes County)persuadeStarting line Scott +40. 4.6% split their ticket.
- 12+102Cordele (Crisp County)persuadeStarting line Scott +3. 5.2% split their ticket.
The hidden path.
Lowndes Civic (Lowndes County) carries the most.
Lowndes Civic (Lowndes County) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 206. It sits at Esti +31 on our starting line, and 2.8 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.
Mt. Calvary Church (Lowndes County) is a turnout target.
Esti's side leads Mt. Calvary Church (Lowndes County) by about 41 points on our starting line, and it cast about 806 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (an estimate). Roughly that many of its 2024 voters sat out the last midterm; bringing enough of them back nets 113 votes there.
Mott-Litman Gym (Tift County) splits its ticket the most.
Of the precincts in this plan, Mott-Litman Gym (Tift County) has the highest share of ticket splitters: 15.1 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.
Spend it where it counts.
As of June 30, 2026, Scott had $1.35 million in cash on hand to Esti's $1,688. That is exactly why the plan ranks every place by net votes and spends in that order instead of across the whole map.
Where voters cross over.
Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Esti's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.
- Precincts
- 225
- Slope
- 0.945
- R²
- 0.988
- Residual SD
- 3.5 pts
- Crossover precincts
- 27
Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Esti's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.
The calendar it ran on.
- Now to October 5Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with Esti, with Scott, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
- October 6 to 12Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 5,267 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before. Every supporter it finds goes straight onto the ballot chase.
- October 13 to 23Bank the ballots
Advance in-person voting runs October 13 through October 30, and absentee ballots start going out October 5. Absentee ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on November 3. Chase every supporter's mail ballot until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open. Applications must be received by October 23.
- October 24 to November 2Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 7,921 of them live where Esti is favored. Absentee ballots must be received by the county election office by 7 p.m. on November 3.
- November 3Election day
Polls are open 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. and photo ID is required. Georgia has no same-day registration. A candidate needs a majority; if no one reaches 50 percent plus one, the top two meet in a December 1 runoff. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.
No wishful thinking.
Official results in this district: the Republican nominee carried the 2024 House race by 37.8 points; Trump carried the 2024 presidential race by 30.6 points; Walker carried the 2022 U.S. Senate race by 30.0 points.
- Esti wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Scott.
- In Lowndes Civic (Lowndes County) and Mt. Calvary Church (Lowndes County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
- It would take a national shift of about 32.6 points toward Esti's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
- No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
2,043 conversations.
That is how many live voter conversations this plan called for: about 38,983 dials to 12,994 households, before the last ballot was cast.
Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.
Running next cycle? We run lists like this.
Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $5,476 at our published rates: 12,994 households, three attempts each.
Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.
Who is on the ballot.
Kelly Esti (D)
A U.S. Navy veteran (1999 to 2002), businessman and analyst who holds a bachelor's degree from Ottawa University, a graduate degree from Webster University and a Ph.D. from Walden University.
Cash on hand $1,688 and $19,343 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.
Austin Scott (R)
U.S. representative since 2011 and vice chair of the House Agriculture Committee; he previously served in the Georgia House of Representatives, owned and operated an insurance brokerage firm for nearly twenty years, and holds a BBA in risk management and insurance from the University of Georgia.
Cash on hand $1,349,452 and $1,124,952 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.
What changed, and when.
We re-ran this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrived, and logged the result against the plan. Every change is listed here.
- November 5, 2026Result: Kelly Esti lost
Unofficial result: Kelly Esti 39.6%, Austin Scott 60.4%, a margin of 20.8 points. Our starting line had Scott +35.0; Esti ran ahead of that line by 14.2 points. This page stays up as the record of the plan and how it compared with the outcome.
- September 26, 2026Underdog plan published
Starting line: Scott +34.9. Kelly Esti needs 93,636 net votes. Odds 0% today, 0% with the plan.
Questions
Who won GA-08 in 2026?
Austin Scott won on November 3, 2026. Unofficial result: Kelly Esti 39.6%, Austin Scott 60.4%, a margin of 20.8 points. Our starting line had Scott +35.0; Esti ran ahead of that line by 14.2 points.
Can Kelly Esti win Georgia's 8th Congressional District in 2026?
Not on current numbers. Campaign work can move about 6,304 net votes against a gap of 92,606; the rest would take a 32.6-point national shift, far larger than any recent midterm has produced.
Where are the votes Kelly Esti needs?
Ranked by net votes in the plan: Lowndes Civic (Lowndes County), Rozr (Houston County), Rainwater (Lowndes County), Mott-Litman Gym (Tift County), Bms (Houston County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.
How many voters does Kelly Esti need to persuade?
About 2,634 voters who lean Austin Scott today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 5,267 persuadable voters leaning Austin Scott.
When does early voting start in Georgia in 2026?
Advance in-person voting in Georgia runs October 13 through October 30, 2026. The registration deadline is October 5, absentee ballot applications must be received by October 23, and absentee ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on Election Day. Georgia requires a majority to win; if no candidate reaches 50 percent plus one, the top two meet in a runoff on December 1.
Who made this analysis?
The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Georgia Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.
Method and sources
Precinct math from official Georgia Secretary of State returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.
Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.
- Georgia Secretary of State, election results
- Georgia Secretary of State, elections
- FEC candidate filings (OpenFEC)
- 2026 voter contact benchmarks (The Political Group)