Upset Brief · Georgia U.S. Senate · Mike Collins (R) vs. Jon Ossoff (D), incumbent

Collins gets within 1,382 votes on campaign work alone. A 0.1-point national shift finishes it.

5%
odds today
49%
odds with the plan
330,919
net votes to find
Jon Ossoff won
result of the November 3, 2026 election
Where
  1. 01
    Fulton County
    Starting line Ossoff +54. 28,130 persuadable voters leaning Ossoff; 120,121 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +28,916
  2. 02
    Cobb County
    Starting line Ossoff +23. 21,690 persuadable voters leaning Ossoff; 92,928 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +22,910
  3. 03
    Gwinnett County
    Starting line Ossoff +27. 19,513 persuadable voters leaning Ossoff; 124,927 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +20,395
  4. 04
    DeKalb County
    Starting line Ossoff +76. 17,492 persuadable voters leaning Ossoff; 71,028 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +17,678
  5. 05
    Cherokee County
    Starting line Collins +31. 8,161 persuadable voters leaning Ossoff; 42,821 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +12,738
  6. 06
    Forsyth County
    Starting line Collins +26. 7,449 persuadable voters leaning Ossoff; 36,599 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +10,619

The top 12 counties carry 46% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    242,468 voters in play: ticket splitters now leaning Ossoff, plus the 8 percent still undecided in the latest poll.
    +242,468
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 593,011 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Collins's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +79,114
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the counties that lean Collins's way.
    +7,956

Plus a national shift of 0.1 points of margin (1,382 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Collins wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters and undecided voters now leaning Ossoff.
  2. In the precincts Collins's side carries in Cherokee County and Hall County, 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 0.1 points toward Collins's side between now and November 3.
  4. The starting line comes from the published 2026 head-to-head polls between these two finalists, sponsored ones included; if the true gap is different, so is the plan.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    2,718 precincts, R² 0.994, 366 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 5-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -360,627 to 364,212 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30
    Collins $2,079,981 cash on hand; Ossoff $42,587,451.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    759,468 households, 2,278,403 dials, about 119,388 live conversations: an estimated $208,778 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $208,778 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

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The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Georgia races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Georgia Secretary of State precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.