Georgia · U.S. Senate · November 3, 2026

What it would have taken for Mike Collins.

Before the election, as last updated September 26, 2026: Ossoff starts 8.4 points ahead on our starting line from 2026 polls. Campaign work gets Collins within 1,382 votes; a 0.1-point shift in the national mood finishes it. The most net votes are in Fulton County, Cobb County and Gwinnett County.

330,919

net votes between Collins and a win

Lost

Jon Ossoff won. Election held November 3, 2026.

8.3 pts

Ossoff lead, our starting line from 2026 polls

The result · November 3, 2026

Jon Ossoff won.

Mike Collins finished 9.7 points behind our starting line. The plan below stays up as the record of what it would have taken.

Jon Ossoff · Democratic ✓59.0%

Mike Collins · Republican41.0%

Projected winner; unofficial results until the state certifies. Source · Second source

In short

One-page brief ›All Georgia races ranked ›

Collins gets within 1,382 votes on campaign work alone. A 0.1-point national shift finishes it.

Odds today5%

Odds with the plan49%

Net votes to find330,919

WhereFulton County, Cobb County, Gwinnett County

Underdog UpdateNovember 5, 2026. Result: Mike Collins lost. Unofficial result: Mike Collins 41.0%, Jon Ossoff 59.0%, a margin of 18.0 points. Our starting line had Ossoff +8.3; Collins fell short of that line by 9.7 points. This page stays up as the record of the plan and how it compared with the outcome.

The number

1,981,781 votes.

That is half of the 3,963,560 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Collins stands today, and what is missing:

1,792,619 Mike Collins baseline

2,123,538 Jon Ossoff baseline

Starting line: Ossoff +8.4 among decided voters, from published 2026 polls, applied to each county's pattern in the 2022 and 2024 official returns. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

5% today. 49% with the plan.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

Collins wins in

49%

of 20,000 simulated elections

With no plan

How much of what history allows the campaign achieves100%

The plan on this page sits at 100%. Median outcome at this setting: Collins short by 4,935.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 5 points of margin (the starting line comes from 2026 polls) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade

242K

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 242,468

Who. 242,468 voters in play: ticket splitters now leaning Ossoff, plus the 8 percent still undecided in the latest poll.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Collins needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Ossoff.

Mobilize

79K

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 593,011

Who. At least 593,011 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Collins's side wins at least 55 percent.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate

7,956

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 22,732

Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the counties that lean Collins's way.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 329,538 net votes against a gap of 330,919. Still 1,381 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 0.1 points that no campaign controls.

Where it is won

12 counties carry 46% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset

01
Fulton Countypersuade
Starting line Ossoff +54. 28,130 persuadable voters leaning Ossoff; 120,121 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+28,916
02
Cobb Countypersuade
Starting line Ossoff +23. 21,690 persuadable voters leaning Ossoff; 92,928 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+22,910
03
Gwinnett Countypersuade
Starting line Ossoff +27. 19,513 persuadable voters leaning Ossoff; 124,927 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+20,395
04
DeKalb Countypersuade
Starting line Ossoff +76. 17,492 persuadable voters leaning Ossoff; 71,028 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+17,678
05
Cherokee Countypersuade
Starting line Collins +31. 8,161 persuadable voters leaning Ossoff; 42,821 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+12,738
06
Forsyth Countypersuade
Starting line Collins +26. 7,449 persuadable voters leaning Ossoff; 36,599 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+10,619
07
Hall Countypersuade
Starting line Collins +37. 4,850 persuadable voters leaning Ossoff; 29,045 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+8,331
08
Chatham Countypersuade
Starting line Ossoff +27. 6,654 persuadable voters leaning Ossoff; 35,738 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+7,381
09
Coweta Countypersuade
Starting line Collins +26. 4,072 persuadable voters leaning Ossoff; 22,710 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+6,240
10
Henry Countypersuade
Starting line Ossoff +38. 5,271 persuadable voters leaning Ossoff; 34,627 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+5,737
11
Columbia Countypersuade
Starting line Collins +18. 3,983 persuadable voters leaning Ossoff; 21,896 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+5,642
12
Paulding Countypersuade
Starting line Collins +16. 3,988 persuadable voters leaning Ossoff; 28,769 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+5,409

What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

Fulton County holds the biggest share of the plan.

Fulton County gives this plan more net votes than any other county: 28,916. It sits at Ossoff +54 on our starting line.

Cherokee County is a turnout target.

In the precincts Collins's side carries in Cherokee County, bringing back people who voted in 2024 and skipped the 2022 midterm nets 4,118 votes in this plan.

Spend it where it counts.

As of June 30, 2026, Ossoff had $42.59 million in cash on hand to Collins's $2.08 million. That is exactly why the plan ranks every place by net votes and spends in that order instead of across the whole map.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Collins's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

Precincts: 2,718
Slope: 0.983
R²: 0.994
Residual SD: 4.1 pts
Crossover precincts: 366

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Collins's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The plan, as published

The calendar it ran on.

Now to October 5
Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these counties. Every conversation tags the voter: with Collins, with Ossoff, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
October 6 to 12
Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 242,468 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before. Every supporter it finds goes straight onto the ballot chase.
October 13 to 23
Bank the ballots
Advance in-person voting runs October 13 through October 30, and absentee ballots start going out October 5. Absentee ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on November 3. Chase every supporter's mail ballot until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open. Applications must be received by October 23.
October 24 to November 2
Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 593,011 of them live where Collins is favored. Absentee ballots must be received by the county election office by 7 p.m. on November 3.
November 3
Election day
Polls are open 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. and photo ID is required. Georgia has no same-day registration. A candidate needs a majority; if no one reaches 50 percent plus one, the top two meet in a December 1 runoff. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Official results statewide: Trump carried the 2024 presidential race by 2.2 points; Warnock carried the 2022 U.S. Senate race by 1.0 points; Kemp carried the 2022 governor's race by 7.5 points.

Collins wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters and undecided voters now leaning Ossoff.
In the precincts Collins's side carries in Cherokee County and Hall County, 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
The national environment moves about 0.1 points toward Collins's side between now and November 3.
The starting line comes from the published 2026 head-to-head polls between these two finalists, sponsored ones included; if the true gap is different, so is the plan.

The work

119,388 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan called for: about 2,278,403 dials to 759,468 households, before the last ballot was cast.

759K

households on the target list

2,278K

dials across three attempts

119K

live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

Running next cycle? We run lists like this.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $208,778 at our published rates: 759,468 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

Plan your next race How HyperPhonebank works ›Size your own program ›

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog

Mike Collins (R)

U.S. representative for Georgia's 10th district since 2023, who founded a trucking company with his wife, Leigh Ann, in the early 1990s and served as chairman of the board of a Georgia credit union and president of his local chamber of commerce. A Jackson, Georgia, native, he earned a bachelor's degree in business administration from Georgia State University in 1990.

Cash on hand $2,079,981 and $6,679,350 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›Wikipedia ›

Favorite · incumbent

Jon Ossoff (D)

U.S. senator from Georgia since 2021, previously a national security staffer and legislative assistant for U.S. Rep. Hank Johnson (2007 to 2012) and managing director and CEO of the investigative documentary company Insight TWI (2013 to 2021). Raised in metro Atlanta, he holds a bachelor's degree from Georgetown University's Walsh School of Foreign Service and a master's in international political economy from the London School of Economics.

Cash on hand $42,587,451 and $77,279,766 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›Wikipedia ›

Declared write-in

Elbert "Al" Bartell (I)

U.S. Air Force veteran (1973 to 1980) and policy analyst and management consultant, born in Hagerstown, Maryland. He earned a bachelor's degree from Saint Leo University in 1984.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Declared write-in

Christina Loren Clement (R)

Describes herself as a mentor, community healer and policy architect focused on economic restoration for historically excluded communities.

FEC filings ›

Declared write-in

Cassandra Easton (Wri)

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-ran this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrived, and logged the result against the plan. Every change is listed here.

November 5, 2026
Result: Mike Collins lost
Unofficial result: Mike Collins 41.0%, Jon Ossoff 59.0%, a margin of 18.0 points. Our starting line had Ossoff +8.3; Collins fell short of that line by 9.7 points. This page stays up as the record of the plan and how it compared with the outcome.
September 26, 2026
Underdog plan published
Starting line: Ossoff +8.3. Mike Collins needs 331,513 net votes. Odds 5% today, 49% with the plan.

Questions

Who won Georgia U.S. Senate in 2026?

Jon Ossoff won on November 3, 2026. Unofficial result: Mike Collins 41.0%, Jon Ossoff 59.0%, a margin of 18.0 points. Our starting line had Ossoff +8.3; Collins fell short of that line by 9.7 points.

Can Mike Collins win the U.S. Senate race in Georgia in 2026?

Only with help from the national environment. Campaign work can move about 329,538 net votes; the gap is 330,919. The rest would take a 0.1-point national shift.

Where are the votes Mike Collins needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Fulton County, Cobb County, Gwinnett County, DeKalb County, Cherokee County. Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does Mike Collins need to persuade?

About 121,234 voters who lean Jon Ossoff today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 242,468 persuadable voters leaning Jon Ossoff.

When does early voting start in Georgia in 2026?

Advance in-person voting in Georgia runs October 13 through October 30, 2026. The registration deadline is October 5, absentee ballot applications must be received by October 23, and absentee ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on Election Day. Georgia requires a majority to win; if no candidate reaches 50 percent plus one, the top two meet in a runoff on December 1.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Georgia Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official Georgia Secretary of State returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (5 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.