A long shot on the math: it takes a 43.9-point national wave.

1. 01
   Precinct 022 (Mecklenburg County)

   Starting line Adams +28. 11.9% split their ticket.
   +237
2. 02
   Precinct 145 (Mecklenburg County)

   Starting line Adams +46. 6.8% split their ticket.
   +198
3. 03
   Precinct 075 (Mecklenburg County)

   Starting line Adams +14. 15.0% split their ticket.
   +178
4. 04
   Precinct 011 (Mecklenburg County)

   Starting line Adams +47. 7.8% split their ticket.
   +171
5. 05
   Precinct 032 (Mecklenburg County)

   Starting line Adams +11. 21.3% split their ticket.
   +166
6. 06
   Precinct 018 (Mecklenburg County)

   Starting line Adams +18. 22.3% split their ticket.
   +146

The top 12 precincts carry 23% of the plan.

• P
  Persuade

  7,840 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Adams today.
  +7,840
• M
  Mobilize

  There are almost no precincts Codiga's side carries, so turnout alone cannot help here.
  +0
• C
  Consolidate

  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Codiga's way.
  +414

Plus a national shift of 43.9 points of margin (93,298 votes) that no campaign controls.

1. Codiga wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Adams.
2. The national environment moves about 43.9 points toward Codiga's side between now and November 3.
3. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

• 01
  Crossover regression

  145 precincts, R² 0.994, 20 crossover precincts identified
• 02
  Monte Carlo

  20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -118,508 to -68,367 votes.
• 03
  Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30

  Codiga $3 cash on hand; Adams $456,594.
• 04
  Call program for this list

  11,637 households, 34,911 dials, about 1,829 live conversations: an estimated $5,192 at published rates.