The Political Group · North Carolina 2026 · as of September 26, 2026

Where a dollar moves a North Carolina race.

15 federal races, seen from the underdog's side. Ranked by how far a disciplined voter contact plan moves the underdog's odds, from 20,000 seeded simulations per race built on official precinct returns.

RaceOdds: today → with the planLiftNet votesCall program
NC-14
LaKesha Womack vs. Tim Moore
4% → 53%+49 pts23,891$13,892
48,812 households
Brief ›
NC-07
Kimberly Hardy vs. David Rouzer
8% → 53%+45 pts20,155$10,660
33,117 households
Brief ›
North Carolina U.S. Senate
Michael Whatley vs. Roy Cooper
3% → 45%+42 pts352,274$222,898
810,833 households
Brief ›
NC-09
Richard Ojeda vs. Richard Hudson
18% → 52%+34 pts11,382$7,125
20,545 households
Brief ›
NC-01
Laurie Buckhout vs. Don Davis
23% → 52%+29 pts10,781$7,930
22,866 households
Brief ›
NC-11
Jamie Ager vs. Jennifer Balkcom
23% → 52%+29 pts16,587$11,420
36,899 households
Brief ›
NC-03
Raymond Smith Jr. vs. Greg Murphy
24% → 51%+27 pts7,652$5,556
12,452 households
Brief ›
NC-10
Ashley Bell vs. Pat Harrigan
<1% → 25%+25 pts45,604$16,811
64,706 households
Brief ›
NC-06
Cyril Jefferson vs. Addison McDowell
2% → 17%+15 pts35,565$13,503
47,446 households
Brief ›
NC-05
Chuck Hubbard vs. Virginia Foxx
2% → 16%+14 pts41,993$13,915
51,121 households
Brief ›
NC-13
Paul Barringer vs. Brad Knott
4% → 18%+14 pts33,921$9,496
28,398 households
Brief ›
NC-08
Colby Watson vs. Mark Harris
1% → 8%+7 pts42,369$11,073
34,398 households
Brief ›
NC-02
Eugene Douglass vs. Deborah Ross
0% → 0%+0 pts106,410$7,120
20,532 households
Brief ›
NC-04
Mahesh Ganorkar vs. Valerie Foushee
0% → 0%+0 pts152,975$6,763
17,058 households
Brief ›
NC-12
Jack Codiga vs. Alma S. Adams
0% → 0%+0 pts101,553$5,192
11,637 households
Brief ›

Lift is the gain in win probability when the plan is executed. Call program: every household on the plan's target list, three attempts each, at published HyperPhonebank rates. Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of each plan: they find the persuadable voters and the supporters so every other dollar lands on the right door.

Upset Brief · NC-14 · LaKesha Womack (D) vs. Tim Moore (R) · incumbent

Womack can win. The math closes using 75 percent of what history allows.

Odds today4%
With the plan53%
Net votes to find23,891
Call program$13,892

Where

  1. Precinct 148 (Mecklenburg County) +928
    Starting line Womack +28. 9.5% split their ticket. About 3,103 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  2. Precinct 206 (Mecklenburg County) +740
    Starting line Womack +42. 9.4% split their ticket. About 1,859 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  3. Precinct 202 (Mecklenburg County) +645
    Starting line Womack +10. 11.4% split their ticket.
  4. Precinct 230 (Mecklenburg County) +603
    Starting line Womack +50. 5.4% split their ticket. About 3,436 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  5. Precinct 229 (Mecklenburg County) +597
    Starting line Womack +33. 7.6% split their ticket. About 5,135 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).

The top 12 precincts carry 27% of the plan.

How

  • Persuade +21,169
    Ticket splitters and the 12 percent still undecided in the latest poll: 28,237 leaning Moore today.
  • Mobilize +3,326
    At least 44,840 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Womack's side wins at least 55 percent.
  • Consolidate +590
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Womack's way.

What has to be true

  1. Womack wins 37 percent of the ticket splitters and undecided voters now leaning Moore.
  2. In Precinct 230 (Mecklenburg County) and Precinct 229 (Mecklenburg County), 26 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. No national wave is required. The plan closes at 75 percent of what recent North Carolina results show is possible.
  4. The starting line comes from published 2026 polls, including campaign or party sponsored polls where those are the only ones; if the true gap is different, so is the plan.

The numbers behind it

  • Crossover regression
    148 precincts, slope 0.979, R² 0.998, 27 crossover precincts
  • Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulations, 5-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -22,940 to 26,506
  • Cash on hand, June 30
    Womack -$376 · Moore $1,581,992
  • Call program
    48,812 households, 146,435 dials, about 7,673 live conversations and 2,616 voter IDs, at $0.2846 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)
Upset Brief · NC-07 · Kimberly Hardy (D) vs. David Rouzer (R) · incumbent

Hardy can win. The math closes using 53 percent of what history allows.

Odds today8%
With the plan53%
Net votes to find20,155
Call program$10,660

Where

  1. Mosquito 2 (Brunswick County) +1,010
    Starting line Rouzer +7. 17.2% split their ticket.
  2. Grissettown (Brunswick County) +676
    Starting line Rouzer +28. 16.2% split their ticket.
  3. Shingletree 2 (Brunswick County) +634
    Starting line Rouzer +25. 15.6% split their ticket.
  4. H08 (New Hanover County) +606
    Starting line Rouzer +7. 15.8% split their ticket.
  5. M02 (New Hanover County) +582
    Starting line Hardy +6. 14.4% split their ticket.

The top 12 precincts carry 34% of the plan.

How

  • Persuade +18,671
    Ticket splitters and the 13 percent still undecided in the latest poll: 35,199 leaning Rouzer today.
  • Mobilize +2,017
    At least 31,119 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Hardy's side wins at least 55 percent.
  • Consolidate +474
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Hardy's way.

What has to be true

  1. Hardy wins 27 percent of the ticket splitters and undecided voters now leaning Rouzer.
  2. No national wave is required. The plan closes at 53 percent of what recent North Carolina results show is possible.
  3. The starting line comes from published 2026 polls, including campaign or party sponsored polls where those are the only ones; if the true gap is different, so is the plan.

The numbers behind it

  • Crossover regression
    192 precincts, slope 0.964, R² 0.996, 36 crossover precincts
  • Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulations, 5-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -24,700 to 27,455
  • Cash on hand, June 30
    Hardy $65,017 · Rouzer $2,301,487
  • Call program
    33,117 households, 99,351 dials, about 5,206 live conversations and 1,775 voter IDs, at $0.3219 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)
Upset Brief · North Carolina U.S. Senate · Michael Whatley (R) vs. Roy Cooper (D)

Whatley gets within 20,329 votes on campaign work alone. A 0.5-point national shift finishes it.

Odds today3%
With the plan45%
Net votes to find352,274
Call program$222,898

Where

  1. Wake County +33,093
    Starting line Cooper +38. 32,000 persuadable voters leaning Cooper; 202,098 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
  2. Mecklenburg County +23,272
    Starting line Cooper +43. 22,507 persuadable voters leaning Cooper; 215,561 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
  3. Guilford County +13,532
    Starting line Cooper +31. 12,304 persuadable voters leaning Cooper; 96,682 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
  4. Forsyth County +10,457
    Starting line Cooper +24. 9,498 persuadable voters leaning Cooper; 70,348 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
  5. Davidson County +8,951
    Starting line Whatley +34. 4,653 persuadable voters leaning Cooper; 34,174 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.

The top 12 counties carry 44% of the plan.

How

  • Persuade +248,877
    Ticket splitters and the 4 percent still undecided in the latest poll: 248,877 leaning Cooper today.
  • Mobilize +71,969
    At least 645,656 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in counties where Whatley's side wins at least 55 percent.
  • Consolidate +11,099
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the counties that lean Whatley's way.

Plus a 0.5-point national shift (20,329 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

  1. Whatley wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters and undecided voters now leaning Cooper.
  2. In the precincts Whatley's side carries in Randolph County and Davidson County, 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 0.5 points toward Whatley's side between now and November 3.
  4. The starting line comes from published 2026 polls, including campaign or party sponsored polls where those are the only ones; if the true gap is different, so is the plan.

The numbers behind it

  • Crossover regression
    2,679 precincts, slope 0.964, R² 0.997, 363 crossover precincts
  • Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulations, 5-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -367,806 to 332,927
  • Cash on hand, June 30
    Whatley $3,461,698 · Cooper $20,717,567
  • Call program
    810,833 households, 2,432,500 dials, about 127,463 live conversations and 43,465 voter IDs, at $0.2749 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)
Upset Brief · NC-09 · Richard Ojeda (D) vs. Richard Hudson (R) · incumbent

Ojeda can win. The math closes using 35 percent of what history allows.

Odds today18%
With the plan52%
Net votes to find11,382
Call program$7,125

Where

  1. Archdale (Randolph County) +481
    Starting line Hudson +42. 12.0% split their ticket.
  2. Seven Lakes (Moore County) +378
    Starting line Hudson +20. 12.7% split their ticket.
  3. Providence (Randolph County) +377
    Starting line Hudson +56. 11.4% split their ticket.
  4. Asheboro West (Randolph County) +332
    Starting line Hudson +13. 12.7% split their ticket.
  5. Pinehurst C (Moore County) +331
    Starting line Hudson +4. 11.4% split their ticket.

The top 12 precincts carry 33% of the plan.

How

  • Persuade +9,520
    Ticket splitters and the 12 percent still undecided in the latest poll: 27,450 leaning Hudson today.
  • Mobilize +2,155
    At least 49,682 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Ojeda's side wins at least 55 percent.
  • Consolidate +276
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Ojeda's way.

What has to be true

  1. Ojeda wins 17 percent of the ticket splitters and undecided voters now leaning Hudson.
  2. In Lake Rim (Cumberland County), 12 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. No national wave is required. The plan closes at 35 percent of what recent North Carolina results show is possible.
  4. The starting line comes from published 2026 polls, including campaign or party sponsored polls where those are the only ones; if the true gap is different, so is the plan.

The numbers behind it

  • Crossover regression
    169 precincts, slope 0.961, R² 0.988, 4 crossover precincts
  • Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulations, 5-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -20,769 to 22,142
  • Cash on hand, June 30
    Ojeda $163,673 · Hudson $1,335,132
  • Call program
    20,545 households, 61,636 dials, about 3,230 live conversations and 1,101 voter IDs, at $0.3468 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)
Upset Brief · NC-01 · Laurie Buckhout (R) vs. Don Davis (D) · incumbent

Buckhout can win. The math closes using 44 percent of what history allows.

Odds today23%
With the plan52%
Net votes to find10,781
Call program$7,930

Where

  1. Grantham 2B (Craven County) +339
    Starting line Buckhout +5. 12.7% split their ticket.
  2. Havelock (Craven County) +318
    Starting line Buckhout +10. 9.2% split their ticket.
  3. Bogue (Carteret County) +305
    Starting line Buckhout +38. 14.1% split their ticket. About 712 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  4. Trent Woods (Craven County) +298
    Starting line Buckhout +17. 16.8% split their ticket.
  5. Rocky Mount Winstead (Nash County) +293
    Starting line Davis +24. 10.4% split their ticket.

The top 12 precincts carry 29% of the plan.

How

  • Persuade +8,943
    Ticket splitters and the 7 percent still undecided in the latest poll: 20,468 leaning Davis today.
  • Mobilize +2,037
    At least 48,925 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Buckhout's side wins at least 55 percent.
  • Consolidate +340
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Buckhout's way.

What has to be true

  1. Buckhout wins 22 percent of the ticket splitters and undecided voters now leaning Davis.
  2. In Newport 2 (Carteret County) and Coopers (Nash County), 15 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. No national wave is required. The plan closes at 44 percent of what recent North Carolina results show is possible.
  4. The starting line comes from published 2026 polls, including campaign or party sponsored polls where those are the only ones; if the true gap is different, so is the plan.

The numbers behind it

  • Crossover regression
    294 precincts, slope 0.968, R² 0.995, 57 crossover precincts
  • Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulations, 5-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -23,488 to 24,969
  • Cash on hand, June 30
    Buckhout $1,829,661 · Davis $3,570,366
  • Call program
    22,866 households, 68,599 dials, about 3,595 live conversations and 1,226 voter IDs, at $0.3468 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)
Upset Brief · NC-11 · Jamie Ager (D) vs. Jennifer Balkcom (R)

Ager can win. The math closes using 94 percent of what history allows.

Odds today23%
With the plan52%
Net votes to find16,587
Call program$11,420

Where

  1. Tc Roberson High School (Buncombe County) +301
    Starting line Ager +39. 9.1% split their ticket. About 1,118 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  2. Cullowhee (Jackson County) +283
    Starting line Ager +27. 7.5% split their ticket. About 2,196 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  3. Lower Hominy 1 - Oak Forest Presbyterian (Buncombe County) +233
    Starting line Ager +21. 7.2% split their ticket. About 1,403 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  4. Lutheran Church of the Nativity (Buncombe County) +196
    Starting line Ager +23. 9.6% split their ticket. About 1,228 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  5. New Hope Presbyterian (Buncombe County) +191
    Starting line Ager +49. 7.8% split their ticket. About 612 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).

The top 12 precincts carry 14% of the plan.

How

  • Persuade +12,760
    13,642 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Balkcom today.
  • Mobilize +3,674
    At least 29,895 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Ager's side wins at least 55 percent.
  • Consolidate +982
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Ager's way.

What has to be true

  1. Ager wins 47 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Balkcom.
  2. In Cullowhee (Jackson County) and Murphy-Oakley Community Center (Buncombe County), 33 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. No national wave is required. The plan closes at 94 percent of what recent North Carolina results show is possible.
  4. Published 2026 polls do not set the starting line here (every usable one is sponsored by one side), so it is a weighted blend of official recent results; an independent head-to-head poll would move it.

The numbers behind it

  • Crossover regression
    292 precincts, slope 0.974, R² 0.997, 48 crossover precincts
  • Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -37,320 to 38,932
  • Cash on hand, June 30
    Ager $2,184,778 · Balkcom n/a
  • Call program
    36,899 households, 110,696 dials, about 5,800 live conversations and 1,978 voter IDs, at $0.3095 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)
Upset Brief · NC-03 · Raymond Smith Jr. (D) vs. Greg Murphy (R) · incumbent

Smith can win. The math closes using 26 percent of what history allows.

Odds today24%
With the plan51%
Net votes to find7,652
Call program$5,556

Where

  1. Taylors (Wilson County) +442
    Starting line Smith +2. 10.4% split their ticket.
  2. Sneads Ferry (Onslow County) +375
    Starting line Murphy +41. 11.3% split their ticket.
  3. Chicod (Pitt County) +368
    Starting line Murphy +39. 10.5% split their ticket.
  4. Greenville 11A (Pitt County) +357
    Starting line even. 15.4% split their ticket.
  5. Folkstone (Onslow County) +336
    Starting line Murphy +39. 11.7% split their ticket.

The top 12 precincts carry 47% of the plan.

How

  • Persuade +6,522
    Ticket splitters and the 15 percent still undecided in the latest poll: 25,120 leaning Murphy today.
  • Mobilize +1,351
    At least 36,604 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Smith's side wins at least 55 percent.
  • Consolidate +161
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Smith's way.

What has to be true

  1. Smith wins 13 percent of the ticket splitters and undecided voters now leaning Murphy.
  2. No national wave is required. The plan closes at 26 percent of what recent North Carolina results show is possible.
  3. The starting line comes from published 2026 polls, including campaign or party sponsored polls where those are the only ones; if the true gap is different, so is the plan.

The numbers behind it

  • Crossover regression
    193 precincts, slope 0.957, R² 0.998, 38 crossover precincts
  • Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulations, 5-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -18,065 to 18,583
  • Cash on hand, June 30
    Smith $73,711 · Murphy $2,697,820
  • Call program
    12,452 households, 37,356 dials, about 1,957 live conversations and 667 voter IDs, at $0.4462 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)
Upset Brief · NC-10 · Ashley Bell (D) vs. Pat Harrigan (R) · incumbent

Bell gets within 10,928 votes on campaign work alone. A 4.0-point national shift finishes it.

Odds today<1%
With the plan25%
Net votes to find45,604
Call program$16,811

Where

  1. Davidson 1-B (Iredell County) +828
    Starting line Harrigan +35. 14.1% split their ticket.
  2. Coddle Creek 3 (Iredell County) +588
    Starting line Harrigan +19. 10.9% split their ticket.
  3. Fallstown (Iredell County) +525
    Starting line Harrigan +39. 10.1% split their ticket.
  4. Westport (Lincoln County) +476
    Starting line Harrigan +31. 13.2% split their ticket.
  5. Davidson 2-B (Iredell County) +448
    Starting line Harrigan +21. 11.7% split their ticket.

The top 12 precincts carry 16% of the plan.

How

  • Persuade +28,565
    Ticket splitters and the 11 percent still undecided in the latest poll: 28,565 leaning Harrigan today.
  • Mobilize +5,374
    At least 34,539 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Bell's side wins at least 55 percent.
  • Consolidate +738
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Bell's way.

Plus a 4-point national shift (10,928 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

  1. Bell wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters and undecided voters now leaning Harrigan.
  2. In Sims Recreation Center (Forsyth County) and Arts Council Theater (Forsyth County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 4.0 points toward Bell's side between now and November 3.
  4. The starting line comes from published 2026 polls, including campaign or party sponsored polls where those are the only ones; if the true gap is different, so is the plan.

The numbers behind it

  • Crossover regression
    187 precincts, slope 0.961, R² 0.998, 39 crossover precincts
  • Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulations, 5-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -37,538 to 17,857
  • Cash on hand, June 30
    Bell $26,174 · Harrigan $451,275
  • Call program
    64,706 households, 194,117 dials, about 10,172 live conversations and 3,469 voter IDs, at $0.2598 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)
Upset Brief · NC-06 · Cyril Jefferson (D) vs. Addison McDowell (R) · incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 6.8-point national wave.

Odds today2%
With the plan17%
Net votes to find35,565
Call program$13,503

Where

  1. Precinct 02-09 (Cabarrus County) +396
    Starting line Jefferson +26. 8.8% split their ticket. About 2,311 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  2. G48 (Guilford County) +282
    Starting line Jefferson +69. 5.3% split their ticket. About 1,018 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  3. Fr1 (Guilford County) +248
    Starting line Jefferson +36. 7.6% split their ticket. About 1,375 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  4. Arcadia 04 (Davidson County) +232
    Starting line McDowell +37. 12.7% split their ticket.
  5. Wallburg 80A (Davidson County) +230
    Starting line McDowell +54. 13.6% split their ticket.

The top 12 precincts carry 15% of the plan.

How

  • Persuade +12,829
    12,829 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean McDowell today.
  • Mobilize +4,929
    At least 40,879 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Jefferson's side wins at least 55 percent.
  • Consolidate +779
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Jefferson's way.

Plus a 6.8-point national shift (17,028 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

  1. Jefferson wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning McDowell.
  2. In G48 (Guilford County) and G50 (Guilford County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 6.8 points toward Jefferson's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

  • Crossover regression
    195 precincts, slope 0.967, R² 0.998, 27 crossover precincts
  • Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -46,913 to 13,038
  • Cash on hand, June 30
    Jefferson $13,898 · McDowell $381,728
  • Call program
    47,446 households, 142,339 dials, about 7,459 live conversations and 2,544 voter IDs, at $0.2846 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)
Upset Brief · NC-05 · Chuck Hubbard (D) vs. Virginia Foxx (R) · incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 7.2-point national wave.

Odds today2%
With the plan16%
Net votes to find41,993
Call program$13,915

Where

  1. G45 (Guilford County) +428
    Starting line Hubbard +84. About 1,476 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  2. G68 (Guilford County) +315
    Starting line Hubbard +93. 1.3% split their ticket. About 973 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  3. G70 (Guilford County) +284
    Starting line Hubbard +89. 0.7% split their ticket. About 902 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  4. Jef3 (Guilford County) +264
    Starting line Hubbard +65. 3.4% split their ticket. About 981 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  5. G67 (Guilford County) +259
    Starting line Hubbard +89. 1.3% split their ticket. About 835 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).

The top 12 precincts carry 15% of the plan.

How

  • Persuade +13,289
    13,289 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Foxx today.
  • Mobilize +8,148
    At least 45,347 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Hubbard's side wins at least 55 percent.
  • Consolidate +757
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Hubbard's way.

Plus a 7.2-point national shift (19,798 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

  1. Hubbard wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Foxx.
  2. In G45 (Guilford County) and G68 (Guilford County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 7.2 points toward Hubbard's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

  • Crossover regression
    231 precincts, slope 0.958, R² 0.999, 41 crossover precincts
  • Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -53,745 to 13,725
  • Cash on hand, June 30
    Hubbard $99,815 · Foxx $3,369,069
  • Call program
    51,121 households, 153,363 dials, about 8,036 live conversations and 2,740 voter IDs, at $0.2722 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)
Upset Brief · NC-13 · Paul Barringer (D) vs. Brad Knott (R) · incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 6.6-point national wave.

Odds today4%
With the plan18%
Net votes to find33,921
Call program$9,496

Where

  1. Flowers Plantation (Johnston County) +400
    Starting line Knott +3. 10.3% split their ticket.
  2. Precinct 14-02 (Wake County) +350
    Starting line Knott +11. 12.9% split their ticket.
  3. Precinct 12-01 (Wake County) +310
    Starting line Knott +4. 12.8% split their ticket.
  4. Precinct 12-09 (Wake County) +249
    Starting line Knott +2. 12.8% split their ticket.
  5. Barbecue (Harnett County) +243
    Starting line Knott +14. 8.4% split their ticket.

The top 12 precincts carry 20% of the plan.

How

  • Persuade +14,175
    14,175 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Knott today.
  • Mobilize +651
    At least 10,415 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Barringer's side wins at least 55 percent.
  • Consolidate +837
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Barringer's way.

Plus a 6.6-point national shift (18,257 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

  1. Barringer wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Knott.
  2. The national environment moves about 6.6 points toward Barringer's side between now and November 3.
  3. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

  • Crossover regression
    138 precincts, slope 0.951, R² 0.995, 17 crossover precincts
  • Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -50,817 to 14,506
  • Cash on hand, June 30
    Barringer $514,555 · Knott $707,795
  • Call program
    28,398 households, 85,195 dials, about 4,464 live conversations and 1,522 voter IDs, at $0.3344 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)
Upset Brief · NC-08 · Colby Watson (D) vs. Mark Harris (R) · incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 10.2-point national wave.

Odds today1%
With the plan8%
Net votes to find42,369
Call program$11,073

Where

  1. Precinct 227 (Mecklenburg County) +307
    Starting line Watson +14. 10.0% split their ticket. About 1,965 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  2. Precinct 01-04 (Cabarrus County) +237
    Starting line Watson +15. 8.2% split their ticket. About 1,784 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  3. Precinct 137 (Mecklenburg County) +230
    Starting line Watson +5. 11.5% split their ticket.
  4. Precinct 091 (Mecklenburg County) +222
    Starting line Watson +13. 10.9% split their ticket. About 939 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  5. Sandy Ridge Elementary School (Union County) +194
    Starting line Harris +9. 11.1% split their ticket.

The top 12 precincts carry 17% of the plan.

How

  • Persuade +12,253
    12,253 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Harris today.
  • Mobilize +1,485
    At least 23,194 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Watson's side wins at least 55 percent.
  • Consolidate +753
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Watson's way.

Plus a 10.2-point national shift (27,878 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

  1. Watson wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Harris.
  2. In Wadesboro (Anson County) and Precinct 227 (Mecklenburg County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 10.2 points toward Watson's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

  • Crossover regression
    199 precincts, slope 0.977, R² 0.996, 32 crossover precincts
  • Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -60,363 to 4,529
  • Cash on hand, June 30
    Watson $2,343 · Harris $517,853
  • Call program
    34,398 households, 103,195 dials, about 5,407 live conversations and 1,844 voter IDs, at $0.3219 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)
Upset Brief · NC-02 · Eugene Douglass (R) vs. Deborah Ross (D) · incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 32.0-point national wave.

Odds today0%
With the plan0%
Net votes to find106,410
Call program$7,120

Where

  1. Precinct 19-19 (Wake County) +321
    Starting line Ross +4. 12.8% split their ticket.
  2. Precinct 02-02 (Wake County) +297
    Starting line Ross +6. 12.7% split their ticket.
  3. Precinct 13-10 (Wake County) +263
    Starting line Ross +26. 12.4% split their ticket.
  4. Precinct 01-11 (Wake County) +238
    Starting line Ross +10. 23.1% split their ticket.
  5. Precinct 05-06 (Wake County) +220
    Starting line Ross +33. 12.0% split their ticket.

The top 12 precincts carry 18% of the plan.

How

  • Persuade +13,742
    13,742 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Ross today.
  • Mobilize +26
    At least 348 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Douglass's side wins at least 55 percent.
  • Consolidate +674
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Douglass's way.

Plus a 32-point national shift (91,969 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

  1. Douglass wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Ross.
  2. The national environment moves about 32.0 points toward Douglass's side between now and November 3.
  3. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

  • Crossover regression
    155 precincts, slope 0.966, R² 0.996, 24 crossover precincts
  • Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -125,568 to -57,857
  • Cash on hand, June 30
    Douglass n/a · Ross $1,337,687
  • Call program
    20,532 households, 61,595 dials, about 3,228 live conversations and 1,101 voter IDs, at $0.3468 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)
Upset Brief · NC-04 · Mahesh Ganorkar (R) vs. Valerie Foushee (D) · incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 44.8-point national wave.

Odds today0%
With the plan0%
Net votes to find152,975
Call program$6,763

Where

  1. Precinct 06-12 (Wake County) +300
    Starting line Foushee +11. 12.4% split their ticket.
  2. Precinct 06-06 (Wake County) +293
    Starting line Foushee +19. 12.9% split their ticket.
  3. Precinct 18-05 (Wake County) +238
    Starting line Foushee +23. 11.7% split their ticket.
  4. Precinct 20-14 (Wake County) +234
    Starting line Foushee +36. 9.9% split their ticket.
  5. Precinct 20-11 (Wake County) +222
    Starting line Foushee +26. 10.8% split their ticket.

The top 12 precincts carry 23% of the plan.

How

  • Persuade +11,238
    11,238 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Foushee today.
  • Mobilize +40
    At least 679 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Ganorkar's side wins at least 55 percent.
  • Consolidate +549
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Ganorkar's way.

Plus a 44.8-point national shift (141,149 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

  1. Ganorkar wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Foushee.
  2. The national environment moves about 44.8 points toward Ganorkar's side between now and November 3.
  3. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

  • Crossover regression
    141 precincts, slope 0.942, R² 0.997, 16 crossover precincts
  • Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -178,340 to -104,278
  • Cash on hand, June 30
    Ganorkar $16,967 · Foushee $47,788
  • Call program
    17,058 households, 51,173 dials, about 2,681 live conversations and 914 voter IDs, at $0.3965 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)
Upset Brief · NC-12 · Jack Codiga (R) vs. Alma S. Adams (D) · incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 43.9-point national wave.

Odds today0%
With the plan0%
Net votes to find101,553
Call program$5,192

Where

  1. Precinct 022 (Mecklenburg County) +237
    Starting line Adams +28. 11.9% split their ticket.
  2. Precinct 145 (Mecklenburg County) +198
    Starting line Adams +46. 6.8% split their ticket.
  3. Precinct 075 (Mecklenburg County) +178
    Starting line Adams +14. 15.0% split their ticket.
  4. Precinct 011 (Mecklenburg County) +171
    Starting line Adams +47. 7.8% split their ticket.
  5. Precinct 032 (Mecklenburg County) +166
    Starting line Adams +11. 21.3% split their ticket.

The top 12 precincts carry 23% of the plan.

How

  • Persuade +7,840
    7,840 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Adams today.
  • Mobilize +0
    There are almost no precincts Codiga's side carries, so turnout alone cannot help here.
  • Consolidate +414
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Codiga's way.

Plus a 43.9-point national shift (93,298 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

  1. Codiga wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Adams.
  2. The national environment moves about 43.9 points toward Codiga's side between now and November 3.
  3. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

  • Crossover regression
    145 precincts, slope 0.910, R² 0.994, 20 crossover precincts
  • Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -118,508 to -68,367
  • Cash on hand, June 30
    Codiga $3 · Adams $456,594
  • Call program
    11,637 households, 34,911 dials, about 1,829 live conversations and 624 voter IDs, at $0.4462 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official North Carolina State Board of Elections precinct returns, FEC filings and published polls. Baseline error and plan efficacy are stated assumptions shown on each race page. Not affiliated with any candidate or party. Text or call Frank Carrasco, 469.639.1600.