Upset Brief · NC-05 · Chuck Hubbard (D) vs. Virginia Foxx (R), incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 7.2-point national wave.

2%
odds today
16%
odds with the plan
41,993
net votes to find
37
days left; voting starts October 15
Where
  1. 01
    G45 (Guilford County)
    Starting line Hubbard +84. About 1,476 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +428
  2. 02
    G68 (Guilford County)
    Starting line Hubbard +93. 1.3% split their ticket. About 973 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +315
  3. 03
    G70 (Guilford County)
    Starting line Hubbard +89. 0.7% split their ticket. About 902 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +284
  4. 04
    Jef3 (Guilford County)
    Starting line Hubbard +65. 3.4% split their ticket. About 981 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +264
  5. 05
    G67 (Guilford County)
    Starting line Hubbard +89. 1.3% split their ticket. About 835 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +259
  6. 06
    G46 (Guilford County)
    Starting line Hubbard +86. 1.9% split their ticket. About 833 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +257

The top 12 precincts carry 15% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    13,289 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Foxx today.
    +13,289
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 45,347 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Hubbard's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +8,148
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Hubbard's way.
    +757

Plus a national shift of 7.2 points of margin (19,798 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Hubbard wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Foxx.
  2. In G45 (Guilford County) and G68 (Guilford County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 7.2 points toward Hubbard's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    231 precincts, R² 0.999, 41 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -53,745 to 13,725 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30
    Hubbard $99,815 cash on hand; Foxx $3,369,069.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    51,121 households, 153,363 dials, about 8,036 live conversations: an estimated $13,915 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $13,915 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

A program on this list with a dashboard you can watch daily: conversations, voter IDs and ballots chased, precinct by precinct.

The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All North Carolina races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official North Carolina State Board of Elections precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.