Hardy can win. The plan uses 53 percent of what history allows.

1. 01
   Mosquito 2 (Brunswick County)

   Starting line Rouzer +7. 17.2% split their ticket.
   +1,010
2. 02
   Grissettown (Brunswick County)

   Starting line Rouzer +28. 16.2% split their ticket.
   +676
3. 03
   Shingletree 2 (Brunswick County)

   Starting line Rouzer +25. 15.6% split their ticket.
   +634
4. 04
   Precinct H08 (New Hanover County)

   Starting line Rouzer +7. 15.8% split their ticket.
   +606
5. 05
   Precinct M02 (New Hanover County)

   Starting line Hardy +6. 14.4% split their ticket.
   +582
6. 06
   Belville 2 (Brunswick County)

   Starting line Rouzer +1. 12.9% split their ticket.
   +571

The top 12 precincts carry 34% of the plan.

• P
  Persuade

  35,199 voters in play: ticket splitters now leaning Rouzer, plus the 13 percent still undecided in the latest poll.
  +18,671
• M
  Mobilize

  At least 31,119 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Hardy's side wins at least 55 percent.
  +2,017
• C
  Consolidate

  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Hardy's way.
  +474

1. Hardy wins 27 percent of the ticket splitters and undecided voters now leaning Rouzer.
2. No national wave is required. The plan uses 53 percent of what recent North Carolina results show is possible.
3. The starting line comes from the published 2026 head-to-head polls between these two finalists, sponsored ones included; if the true gap is different, so is the plan.

• 01
  Crossover regression

  192 precincts, R² 0.996, 36 crossover precincts identified
• 02
  Monte Carlo

  20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 5-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -24,700 to 27,455 votes.
• 03
  Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30

  Hardy $65,017 cash on hand; Rouzer $2,301,487.
• 04
  Call program for this list

  33,117 households, 99,351 dials, about 5,206 live conversations: an estimated $10,660 at published rates.