Upset Brief · OH-14 · Maria Jukic (D) vs. David Joyce (R), incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 12.5-point national wave.

<1%
odds today
4%
odds with the plan
57,143
net votes to find
37
days left; voting starts October 6
Where
  1. 01
    Liberty Twp G (Trumbull County)
    Starting line Jukic +38. 21.4% split their ticket. About 181 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +78
  2. 02
    Precinct Willoughby Hills City Gg (Lake County)
    Starting line Jukic +58. 10.4% split their ticket. About 291 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +75
  3. 03
    Niles City 2A (Trumbull County)
    Starting line Jukic +2. 19.8% split their ticket.
    +71
  4. 04
    Warren City 7A (Trumbull County)
    Starting line Jukic +58. 15.9% split their ticket. About 182 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +66
  5. 05
    Precinct Aus 23 (Mahoning County)
    Starting line Joyce +12. 16.7% split their ticket.
    +66
  6. 06
    Precinct Concord Twp I (Lake County)
    Starting line Joyce +36. 11.9% split their ticket.
    +65

The top 12 precincts carry 4% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    17,061 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Joyce today.
    +17,061
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 5,935 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Jukic's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +526
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Jukic's way.
    +503

Plus a national shift of 12.5 points of margin (39,053 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Jukic wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Joyce.
  2. In Precinct Willoughby Hills City Gg (Lake County) and Warren City 7A (Trumbull County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 12.5 points toward Jukic's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    639 precincts, R² 0.978, 97 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -75,729 to -1,640 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30
    Jukic $33,693 cash on hand; Joyce $3,121,595.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    28,631 households, 85,894 dials, about 4,501 live conversations: an estimated $9,574 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $9,574 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

A program on this list with a dashboard you can watch daily: conversations, voter IDs and ballots chased, precinct by precinct.

The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Ohio races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Ohio Secretary of State precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.