The Political Group · Ohio 2026 · as of September 26, 2026

Where a dollar moves an Ohio race.

The November 3, 2026 election is over; each race now shows its result beside the plan, which stays up as the record. 16 federal races, seen from the underdog's side. Ranked by how far a disciplined voter contact plan moves the underdog's odds, from 20,000 seeded simulations per race built on official precinct returns.

RaceOdds: today → with the planLiftNet votesCall programResult
OH-07
Max Miller vs. Brian Poindexter
2% → 53%+51 pts32,755$14,908
54,767 households
Brian Poindexter wonBrief ›
OH-10
Kristina Knickerbocker vs. Mike Turner
8% → 52%+44 pts18,773$9,973
29,823 households
Kristina Knickerbocker leads, still countingBrief ›
OH-15
Don Leonard vs. Mike Carey
15% → 51%+36 pts12,819$8,097
23,349 households
Don Leonard wonBrief ›
Ohio U.S. Senate
Jon Husted vs. Sherrod Brown
17% → 52%+35 pts198,324$106,193
386,298 households
Sherrod Brown wonBrief ›
OH-01
Eric Conroy vs. Greg Landsman
19% → 52%+33 pts13,087$8,419
25,177 households
Greg Landsman wonBrief ›
OH-09
Marcy Kaptur vs. Derek Merrin
6% → 36%+30 pts29,857$14,141
49,686 households
Marcy Kaptur wonBrief ›
OH-13
Carey Coleman vs. Emilia Sykes
28% → 51%+23 pts11,849$9,257
27,681 households
Emilia Sykes wonBrief ›
OH-08
Vanessa Enoch vs. Warren Davidson
1% → 6%+5 pts50,383$11,152
36,033 households
Warren Davidson wonBrief ›
OH-14
Maria Jukic vs. David Joyce
<1% → 4%+4 pts57,143$9,574
28,631 households
David Joyce wonBrief ›
OH-05
Brian Shaver vs. Bob Latta
<1% → 1%+1 pts61,635$9,772
30,356 households
Bob Latta wonBrief ›
OH-02
Jen Mazzuckelli vs. David Taylor
0% → 0%+0 pts102,806$6,587
16,614 households
David Taylor wonBrief ›
OH-03
Cleophus Dulaney vs. Joyce Beatty
0% → 0%+0 pts103,182$6,918
17,447 households
Joyce Beatty wonBrief ›
OH-04
Joshua Kolasinski vs. Jim Jordan
0% → 0%+0 pts118,898$6,824
18,360 households
Jim Jordan wonBrief ›
OH-06
Elizabeth Kirtley vs. Michael Rulli
0% → <1%+0 pts85,696$8,358
24,101 households
Michael Rulli wonBrief ›
OH-11
Mike Kirchner vs. Shontel Brown
0% → 0%+0 pts120,491$6,193
15,620 households
Shontel Brown wonBrief ›
OH-12
Jerrad Christian vs. Troy Balderson
<1% → <1%+0 pts87,041$8,667
24,992 households
Troy Balderson wonBrief ›

Lift is the gain in win probability when the plan is executed. Call program: every household on the plan's target list, three attempts each, at published HyperPhonebank rates. Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of each plan: they find the persuadable voters and the supporters so every other dollar lands on the right door.

Upset Brief · OH-07 · Max Miller (R) vs. Brian Poindexter (D)

Miller can win. The plan uses 76 percent of what history allows.

Odds today2%
With the plan53%
Net votes to find32,755
Call program$14,908

Where

  1. Berea-03-A (Cuyahoga County) +175
    Starting line Poindexter +36. 11.9% split their ticket.
  2. Broadview Heights-04-A (Cuyahoga County) +154
    Starting line Miller +1. 12.5% split their ticket.
  3. Olmsted Township-00-G (Cuyahoga County) +150
    Starting line Poindexter +21. 12.8% split their ticket.
  4. Broadview Heights-02-D (Cuyahoga County) +143
    Starting line Poindexter +19. 11.9% split their ticket.
  5. Strongsville-01-D (Cuyahoga County) +141
    Starting line Poindexter +12. 16.6% split their ticket.

The top 12 precincts carry 5% of the plan.

How

  • Persuade +32,608
    42,873 voters in play: ticket splitters now leaning Poindexter, plus the 16 percent still undecided in the latest poll.
  • Mobilize +1,384
    At least 21,823 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Miller's side wins at least 55 percent.
  • Consolidate +401
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Miller's way.

What has to be true

  1. Miller wins 38 percent of the ticket splitters and undecided voters now leaning Poindexter.
  2. No national wave is required. The plan uses 76 percent of what recent Ohio results show is possible.
  3. The starting line comes from the published 2026 head-to-head polls between these two finalists, sponsored ones included; if the true gap is different, so is the plan.

The numbers behind it

  • Crossover regression
    536 precincts, slope 0.970, R² 0.984, 98 crossover precincts
  • Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulations, 5-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -28,687 to 33,621
  • Cash on hand, June 30
    Miller $1,379,132 · Poindexter $312,290
  • Call program
    54,767 households, 164,301 dials, about 8,609 live conversations and 2,936 voter IDs, at $0.2722 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)
Upset Brief · OH-10 · Kristina Knickerbocker (D) vs. Mike Turner (R) · incumbent

Knickerbocker can win. The plan uses 59 percent of what history allows.

Odds today8%
With the plan52%
Net votes to find18,773
Call program$9,973

Where

  1. Fairborn 226 (Greene County) +169
    Starting line Turner +11. 12.0% split their ticket.
  2. Dayton 22-C (Montgomery County) +163
    Starting line Knickerbocker +90. 10.6% split their ticket. About 361 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  3. Harrison Twp M (Montgomery County) +137
    Starting line Knickerbocker +76. 13.3% split their ticket. About 223 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  4. Sugarcreek 151 (Greene County) +125
    Starting line Turner +21. 9.8% split their ticket.
  5. Trotwood 1-E (Montgomery County) +120
    Starting line Knickerbocker +85. 10.8% split their ticket. About 210 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).

The top 12 precincts carry 8% of the plan.

How

  • Persuade +17,078
    28,877 voters in play: ticket splitters now leaning Turner, plus the 11 percent still undecided in the latest poll.
  • Mobilize +2,309
    At least 23,095 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Knickerbocker's side wins at least 55 percent.
  • Consolidate +324
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Knickerbocker's way.

What has to be true

  1. Knickerbocker wins 30 percent of the ticket splitters and undecided voters now leaning Turner.
  2. In Dayton 22-C (Montgomery County) and Trotwood 2-B (Montgomery County), 21 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. No national wave is required. The plan uses 59 percent of what recent Ohio results show is possible.
  4. The starting line comes from the published 2026 head-to-head polls between these two finalists, sponsored ones included; if the true gap is different, so is the plan.

The numbers behind it

  • Crossover regression
    588 precincts, slope 0.964, R² 0.993, 80 crossover precincts
  • Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulations, 5-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -23,445 to 25,808
  • Cash on hand, June 30
    Knickerbocker $125,160 · Turner $556,284
  • Call program
    29,823 households, 89,468 dials, about 4,688 live conversations and 1,599 voter IDs, at $0.3344 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)
Upset Brief · OH-15 · Don Leonard (D) vs. Mike Carey (R) · incumbent

Leonard can win. The plan uses 43 percent of what history allows.

Odds today15%
With the plan51%
Net votes to find12,819
Call program$8,097

Where

  1. Cols 86-A (Franklin County) +178
    Starting line Leonard +55. 9.9% split their ticket. About 567 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  2. Hill 4-A (Franklin County) +156
    Starting line Leonard +24. 11.3% split their ticket.
  3. Dub 3-B (Franklin County) +144
    Starting line Leonard +14. 15.6% split their ticket.
  4. Dub 3-A (Franklin County) +119
    Starting line Leonard +4. 12.1% split their ticket.
  5. Hill 4-C (Franklin County) +114
    Starting line Leonard +16. 11.1% split their ticket.

The top 12 precincts carry 11% of the plan.

How

  • Persuade +11,198
    26,156 voters in play: ticket splitters now leaning Carey, plus the 12 percent still undecided in the latest poll.
  • Mobilize +2,050
    At least 44,332 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Leonard's side wins at least 55 percent.
  • Consolidate +211
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Leonard's way.

What has to be true

  1. Leonard wins 21 percent of the ticket splitters and undecided voters now leaning Carey.
  2. In Cols 86-A (Franklin County) and Cols 45-C (Franklin County), 15 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. No national wave is required. The plan uses 43 percent of what recent Ohio results show is possible.
  4. The starting line comes from the published 2026 head-to-head polls between these two finalists, sponsored ones included; if the true gap is different, so is the plan.

The numbers behind it

  • Crossover regression
    536 precincts, slope 0.975, R² 0.993, 74 crossover precincts
  • Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulations, 5-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -20,807 to 22,181
  • Cash on hand, June 30
    Leonard $252,402 · Carey $2,056,713
  • Call program
    23,349 households, 70,047 dials, about 3,670 live conversations and 1,251 voter IDs, at $0.3468 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)
Upset Brief · Ohio U.S. Senate · Jon Husted (R) vs. Sherrod Brown (D)

Husted can win. The plan uses 49 percent of what history allows.

Odds today17%
With the plan52%
Net votes to find198,324
Call program$106,193

Where

  1. Cuyahoga County +25,404
    Starting line Brown +46. 36,895 persuadable voters leaning Brown; 171,459 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
  2. Franklin County +15,475
    Starting line Brown +44. 35,029 persuadable voters leaning Brown; 179,357 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
  3. Lucas County +13,918
    Starting line Brown +27. 14,290 persuadable voters leaning Brown; 59,049 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
  4. Hamilton County +9,766
    Starting line Brown +28. 24,530 persuadable voters leaning Brown; 108,981 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
  5. Montgomery County +9,603
    Starting line Brown +14. 16,137 persuadable voters leaning Brown; 69,475 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.

The top 12 counties carry 60% of the plan.

How

  • Persuade +172,283
    348,413 voters in play: ticket splitters now leaning Brown, plus the 7 percent still undecided in the latest poll.
  • Mobilize +31,871
    At least 614,000 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Husted's side wins at least 55 percent.
  • Consolidate +4,085
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the counties that lean Husted's way.

What has to be true

  1. Husted wins 25 percent of the ticket splitters and undecided voters now leaning Brown.
  2. In the precincts Husted's side carries in Hamilton County and Stark County, 17 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. No national wave is required. The plan uses 49 percent of what recent Ohio results show is possible.
  4. The starting line comes from the published 2026 head-to-head polls between these two finalists, sponsored ones included; if the true gap is different, so is the plan.

The numbers behind it

  • Crossover regression
    8,933 precincts, slope 0.968, R² 0.993, 1,614 crossover precincts
  • Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulations, 5-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -345,934 to 371,484
  • Cash on hand, June 30
    Husted $9,419,311 · Brown $16,229,741
  • Call program
    386,298 households, 1,158,893 dials, about 60,726 live conversations and 20,708 voter IDs, at $0.2749 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)
Upset Brief · OH-01 · Eric Conroy (R) vs. Greg Landsman (D) · incumbent

Conroy can win. The plan uses 40 percent of what history allows.

Odds today19%
With the plan52%
Net votes to find13,087
Call program$8,419

Where

  1. Deerfield Twp Cc (Warren County) +119
    Starting line Conroy +9. 13.8% split their ticket.
  2. Anderson I (Hamilton County) +109
    Starting line Landsman +10. 11.9% split their ticket.
  3. Mason City Y (Warren County) +104
    Starting line Landsman +5. 13.3% split their ticket.
  4. Symmes C (Hamilton County) +102
    Starting line Landsman +2. 11.3% split their ticket.
  5. South Lebanon City D (Warren County) +99
    Starting line Conroy +13. 10.7% split their ticket.

The top 12 precincts carry 9% of the plan.

How

  • Persuade +11,024
    27,372 voters in play: ticket splitters now leaning Landsman, plus the 10 percent still undecided in the latest poll.
  • Mobilize +2,484
    At least 50,025 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Conroy's side wins at least 55 percent.
  • Consolidate +233
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Conroy's way.

What has to be true

  1. Conroy wins 20 percent of the ticket splitters and undecided voters now leaning Landsman.
  2. No national wave is required. The plan uses 40 percent of what recent Ohio results show is possible.
  3. The starting line comes from the published 2026 head-to-head polls between these two finalists, sponsored ones included; if the true gap is different, so is the plan.

The numbers behind it

  • Crossover regression
    541 precincts, slope 0.970, R² 0.997, 94 crossover precincts
  • Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulations, 5-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -24,233 to 25,914
  • Cash on hand, June 30
    Conroy $474,156 · Landsman $3,610,214
  • Call program
    25,177 households, 75,531 dials, about 3,958 live conversations and 1,350 voter IDs, at $0.3344 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)
Upset Brief · OH-09 · Marcy Kaptur (D) vs. Derek Merrin (R)

Kaptur gets within 7,329 votes on campaign work alone. A 2.7-point national shift finishes it.

Odds today6%
With the plan36%
Net votes to find29,857
Call program$14,141

Where

  1. Precinct Toledo 8B (Lucas County) +130
    Starting line Kaptur +85. 11.9% split their ticket. About 398 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  2. Precinct Toledo 14F (Lucas County) +124
    Starting line Kaptur +88. 24.4% split their ticket. About 342 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  3. Precinct Toledo 10F (Lucas County) +112
    Starting line Kaptur +73. 12.0% split their ticket. About 413 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  4. Precinct Toledo 14A (Lucas County) +111
    Starting line Kaptur +84. 11.6% split their ticket. About 346 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  5. Precinct Toledo 14B (Lucas County) +102
    Starting line Kaptur +85. 20.7% split their ticket. About 291 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).

The top 12 precincts carry 5% of the plan.

How

  • Persuade +17,535
    17,535 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Merrin today.
  • Mobilize +4,390
    At least 35,216 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Kaptur's side wins at least 55 percent.
  • Consolidate +603
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Kaptur's way.

Plus a 2.7-point national shift (7,329 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

  1. Kaptur wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Merrin.
  2. In Precinct Toledo 8B (Lucas County) and Precinct Toledo 14F (Lucas County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 2.7 points toward Kaptur's side between now and November 3.
  4. Published 2026 polls do not set the starting line here (every usable one comes from one side's sponsors, and the major ratings disagree), so the line is a weighted blend of official recent results. An independent head-to-head poll would move it.

The numbers behind it

  • Crossover regression
    588 precincts, slope 0.988, R² 0.991, 90 crossover precincts
  • Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -40,840 to 26,540
  • Cash on hand, June 30
    Kaptur $3,491,668 · Merrin $531,214
  • Call program
    49,686 households, 149,059 dials, about 7,811 live conversations and 2,664 voter IDs, at $0.2846 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)
Upset Brief · OH-13 · Carey Coleman (R) vs. Emilia Sykes (D) · incumbent

Coleman can win. The plan uses 72 percent of what history allows.

Odds today28%
With the plan51%
Net votes to find11,849
Call program$9,257

Where

  1. Sagamore Hills Twp A (Summit County) +86
    Starting line Coleman +14. 18.8% split their ticket.
  2. Jackson 23 (Stark County) +86
    Starting line Coleman +32. 12.2% split their ticket. About 271 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  3. Lake 18 (Stark County) +86
    Starting line Coleman +36. 9.5% split their ticket. About 365 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  4. Canton Twp 5 (Stark County) +84
    Starting line Coleman +33. 11.4% split their ticket. About 338 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  5. Jackson 33 (Stark County) +78
    Starting line Coleman +28. 10.0% split their ticket. About 369 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).

The top 12 precincts carry 7% of the plan.

How

  • Persuade +10,478
    14,627 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Sykes today.
  • Mobilize +1,551
    At least 31,321 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Coleman's side wins at least 55 percent.
  • Consolidate +412
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Coleman's way.

What has to be true

  1. Coleman wins 36 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Sykes.
  2. In Springfield Twp G (Summit County) and Lake 18 (Stark County), 25 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. No national wave is required. The plan uses 72 percent of what recent Ohio results show is possible.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

  • Crossover regression
    556 precincts, slope 0.959, R² 0.987, 93 crossover precincts
  • Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -33,491 to 34,637
  • Cash on hand, June 30
    Coleman $77,727 · Sykes $1,897,462
  • Call program
    27,681 households, 83,044 dials, about 4,352 live conversations and 1,484 voter IDs, at $0.3344 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)
Upset Brief · OH-08 · Vanessa Enoch (D) vs. Warren Davidson (R) · incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes an 11.4-point national wave.

Odds today1%
With the plan6%
Net votes to find50,383
Call program$11,152

Where

  1. Lincoln Hgts A (Hamilton County) +106
    Starting line Enoch +89. 6.7% split their ticket. About 289 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  2. Golf Manor B (Hamilton County) +95
    Starting line Enoch +73. 6.6% split their ticket. About 300 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  3. Woodlawn B (Hamilton County) +94
    Starting line Enoch +73. 6.7% split their ticket. About 281 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  4. Wyoming C (Hamilton County) +90
    Starting line Enoch +40. 11.8% split their ticket. About 220 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  5. Forest Park C (Hamilton County) +88
    Starting line Enoch +70. 11.1% split their ticket. About 263 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).

The top 12 precincts carry 6% of the plan.

How

  • Persuade +12,932
    12,932 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Davidson today.
  • Mobilize +3,116
    At least 24,922 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Enoch's side wins at least 55 percent.
  • Consolidate +502
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Enoch's way.

Plus a 11.4-point national shift (33,832 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

  1. Enoch wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Davidson.
  2. In Lincoln Hgts A (Hamilton County) and Golf Manor B (Hamilton County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. It would take a national shift of about 11.4 points toward Enoch's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

  • Crossover regression
    601 precincts, slope 0.969, R² 0.995, 83 crossover precincts
  • Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -69,365 to 1,647
  • Cash on hand, June 30
    Enoch $2,987 · Davidson $529,910
  • Call program
    36,033 households, 108,099 dials, about 5,664 live conversations and 1,931 voter IDs, at $0.3095 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)
Upset Brief · OH-14 · Maria Jukic (D) vs. David Joyce (R) · incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 12.5-point national wave.

Odds today<1%
With the plan4%
Net votes to find57,143
Call program$9,574

Where

  1. Liberty Twp G (Trumbull County) +78
    Starting line Jukic +38. 21.4% split their ticket. About 181 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  2. Precinct Willoughby Hills City Gg (Lake County) +75
    Starting line Jukic +58. 10.4% split their ticket. About 291 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  3. Niles City 2A (Trumbull County) +71
    Starting line Jukic +2. 19.8% split their ticket.
  4. Warren City 7A (Trumbull County) +66
    Starting line Jukic +58. 15.9% split their ticket. About 182 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  5. Precinct Aus 23 (Mahoning County) +66
    Starting line Joyce +12. 16.7% split their ticket.

The top 12 precincts carry 4% of the plan.

How

  • Persuade +17,061
    17,061 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Joyce today.
  • Mobilize +526
    At least 5,935 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Jukic's side wins at least 55 percent.
  • Consolidate +503
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Jukic's way.

Plus a 12.5-point national shift (39,053 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

  1. Jukic wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Joyce.
  2. In Precinct Willoughby Hills City Gg (Lake County) and Warren City 7A (Trumbull County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. It would take a national shift of about 12.5 points toward Jukic's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

  • Crossover regression
    639 precincts, slope 0.976, R² 0.978, 97 crossover precincts
  • Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -75,729 to -1,640
  • Cash on hand, June 30
    Jukic $33,693 · Joyce $3,121,595
  • Call program
    28,631 households, 85,894 dials, about 4,501 live conversations and 1,535 voter IDs, at $0.3344 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)
Upset Brief · OH-05 · Brian Shaver (D) vs. Bob Latta (R) · incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 16.2-point national wave.

Odds today<1%
With the plan1%
Net votes to find61,635
Call program$9,772

Where

  1. Middleton Twp North (Wood County) +100
    Starting line Latta +15. 14.6% split their ticket.
  2. Precinct Oberlin City #8 (Lorain County) +99
    Starting line Shaver +96. 0.7% split their ticket. About 290 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  3. Precinct Oberlin City #7 (Lorain County) +77
    Starting line Shaver +94. 0.7% split their ticket. About 230 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  4. Bowling Green 3-E (Wood County) +75
    Starting line Latta +1. 14.5% split their ticket.
  5. Bowling Green 4-A (Wood County) +70
    Starting line Shaver +12. 14.7% split their ticket. About 151 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).

The top 12 precincts carry 5% of the plan.

How

  • Persuade +14,568
    14,568 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Latta today.
  • Mobilize +1,395
    At least 13,485 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Shaver's side wins at least 55 percent.
  • Consolidate +480
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Shaver's way.

Plus a 16.2-point national shift (45,191 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

  1. Shaver wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Latta.
  2. In Precinct Oberlin City #8 (Lorain County) and Precinct Oberlin City #7 (Lorain County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. It would take a national shift of about 16.2 points toward Shaver's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

  • Crossover regression
    595 precincts, slope 0.993, R² 0.986, 94 crossover precincts
  • Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -79,030 to -11,748
  • Cash on hand, June 30
    Shaver $8,742 · Latta $1,019,993
  • Call program
    30,356 households, 91,069 dials, about 4,772 live conversations and 1,627 voter IDs, at $0.3219 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)
Upset Brief · OH-02 · Jen Mazzuckelli (D) vs. David Taylor (R) · incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 34.9-point national wave.

Odds today0%
With the plan0%
Net votes to find102,806
Call program$6,587

Where

  1. Athens 1-1 (Athens County) +88
    Starting line Mazzuckelli +68. 8.5% split their ticket. About 298 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  2. Athens 1-3 (Athens County) +62
    Starting line Mazzuckelli +68. 6.8% split their ticket. About 236 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  3. Athens 2-4 (Athens County) +61
    Starting line Mazzuckelli +56. 11.9% split their ticket. About 141 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  4. Athens Baker (Athens County) +59
    Starting line Mazzuckelli +26. 10.1% split their ticket. About 187 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  5. Miami Township Z (Clermont County) +52
    Starting line Taylor +22. 10.8% split their ticket.

The top 12 precincts carry 6% of the plan.

How

  • Persuade +9,469
    9,469 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Taylor today.
  • Mobilize +668
    At least 4,155 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Mazzuckelli's side wins at least 55 percent.
  • Consolidate +344
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Mazzuckelli's way.

Plus a 34.9-point national shift (92,324 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

  1. Mazzuckelli wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Taylor.
  2. In Athens 1-1 (Athens County) and Athens 1-3 (Athens County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. It would take a national shift of about 34.9 points toward Mazzuckelli's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

  • Crossover regression
    722 precincts, slope 0.975, R² 0.983, 104 crossover precincts
  • Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -123,022 to -61,023
  • Cash on hand, June 30
    Mazzuckelli n/a · Taylor $442,977
  • Call program
    16,614 households, 49,841 dials, about 2,612 live conversations and 891 voter IDs, at $0.3965 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)
Upset Brief · OH-03 · Cleophus Dulaney (R) vs. Joyce Beatty (D) · incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 34.5-point national wave.

Odds today0%
With the plan0%
Net votes to find103,182
Call program$6,918

Where

  1. New Albany-F (Franklin County) +76
    Starting line Beatty +10. 14.3% split their ticket.
  2. New Albany-B (Franklin County) +74
    Starting line Beatty +3. 15.1% split their ticket.
  3. Cols 82-E (Franklin County) +71
    Starting line Beatty +17. 10.3% split their ticket.
  4. Ua 5-E (Franklin County) +67
    Starting line Beatty +24. 13.0% split their ticket.
  5. Bexley 1-B (Franklin County) +66
    Starting line Beatty +42. 12.2% split their ticket.

The top 12 precincts carry 6% of the plan.

How

  • Persuade +12,053
    12,053 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Beatty today.
  • Mobilize +19
    Few precincts give Dulaney's side 55 percent or more, so turnout is a small lever here; the plan leans on persuasion instead.
  • Consolidate +278
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the closest places on the map.

Plus a 34.5-point national shift (90,831 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

  1. Dulaney wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Beatty.
  2. It would take a national shift of about 34.5 points toward Dulaney's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
  3. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

  • Crossover regression
    544 precincts, slope 0.970, R² 0.978, 99 crossover precincts
  • Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -122,027 to -59,978
  • Cash on hand, June 30
    Dulaney n/a · Beatty $2,776,821
  • Call program
    17,447 households, 52,340 dials, about 2,743 live conversations and 935 voter IDs, at $0.3965 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)
Upset Brief · OH-04 · Joshua Kolasinski (D) vs. Jim Jordan (R) · incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 37.6-point national wave.

Odds today0%
With the plan0%
Net votes to find118,898
Call program$6,824

Where

  1. Precinct City 8 (Clark County) +87
    Starting line Kolasinski +62. 8.5% split their ticket. About 289 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  2. Dublin City 2 (Union County) +85
    Starting line Kolasinski +16. 14.8% split their ticket. About 458 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  3. Precinct City 21 (Clark County) +72
    Starting line Jordan +17. 17.8% split their ticket.
  4. Precinct City 7 (Clark County) +70
    Starting line Kolasinski +60. 7.8% split their ticket. About 238 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  5. Dublin City 1 (Union County) +70
    Starting line Jordan +6. 13.3% split their ticket.

The top 12 precincts carry 6% of the plan.

How

  • Persuade +11,102
    11,102 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Jordan today.
  • Mobilize +386
    At least 3,375 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Kolasinski's side wins at least 55 percent.
  • Consolidate +360
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Kolasinski's way.

Plus a 37.6-point national shift (107,050 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

  1. Kolasinski wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Jordan.
  2. In Precinct City 8 (Clark County) and Precinct City 7 (Clark County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. It would take a national shift of about 37.6 points toward Kolasinski's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

  • Crossover regression
    612 precincts, slope 1.000, R² 0.987, 106 crossover precincts
  • Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -140,717 to -73,680
  • Cash on hand, June 30
    Kolasinski $465 · Jordan $6,030,301
  • Call program
    18,360 households, 55,079 dials, about 2,886 live conversations and 984 voter IDs, at $0.3717 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)
Upset Brief · OH-06 · Elizabeth Kirtley (D) vs. Michael Rulli (R) · incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 26.1-point national wave.

Odds today0%
With the plan<1%
Net votes to find85,696
Call program$8,358

Where

  1. Precinct YGN3 F (Mahoning County) +72
    Starting line Kirtley +63. 11.7% split their ticket. About 165 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  2. Precinct Bvt 5 (Mahoning County) +66
    Starting line Rulli +14. 20.9% split their ticket.
  3. Precinct YGN2 E (Mahoning County) +66
    Starting line Kirtley +73. 16.9% split their ticket. About 141 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  4. Precinct Pot 2 (Mahoning County) +63
    Starting line Rulli +27. 13.4% split their ticket.
  5. Precinct YGN3 C (Mahoning County) +62
    Starting line Kirtley +73. 16.9% split their ticket. About 137 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).

The top 12 precincts carry 5% of the plan.

How

  • Persuade +13,467
    13,467 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Rulli today.
  • Mobilize +966
    At least 6,861 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Kirtley's side wins at least 55 percent.
  • Consolidate +397
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Kirtley's way.

Plus a 26.1-point national shift (70,866 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

  1. Kirtley wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Rulli.
  2. In Precinct YGN1 D (Mahoning County) and Precinct YGN3 F (Mahoning County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. It would take a national shift of about 26.1 points toward Kirtley's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

  • Crossover regression
    657 precincts, slope 0.986, R² 0.985, 110 crossover precincts
  • Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -102,545 to -39,150
  • Cash on hand, June 30
    Kirtley $1,069 · Rulli $269,711
  • Call program
    24,101 households, 72,302 dials, about 3,789 live conversations and 1,292 voter IDs, at $0.3468 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)
Upset Brief · OH-11 · Mike Kirchner (R) vs. Shontel Brown (D) · incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 49.5-point national wave.

Odds today0%
With the plan0%
Net votes to find120,491
Call program$6,193

Where

  1. Bratenahl-00-A (Cuyahoga County) +58
    Starting line Brown +36. 13.0% split their ticket.
  2. University Heights-00-H (Cuyahoga County) +52
    Starting line Kirchner +35. 5.6% split their ticket. About 285 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  3. Pepper Pike-00-A (Cuyahoga County) +52
    Starting line Brown +39. 15.2% split their ticket.
  4. Lakewood-01-H (Cuyahoga County) +52
    Starting line Brown +30. 11.7% split their ticket.
  5. Pepper Pike-00-B (Cuyahoga County) +50
    Starting line Brown +31. 14.4% split their ticket.

The top 12 precincts carry 5% of the plan.

How

  • Persuade +10,802
    10,802 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Brown today.
  • Mobilize +57
    Few precincts give Kirchner's side 55 percent or more, so turnout is a small lever here; the plan leans on persuasion instead.
  • Consolidate +151
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the closest places on the map.

Plus a 49.5-point national shift (109,482 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

  1. Kirchner wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Brown.
  2. In University Heights-00-H (Cuyahoga County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. It would take a national shift of about 49.5 points toward Kirchner's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

  • Crossover regression
    641 precincts, slope 0.916, R² 0.988, 107 crossover precincts
  • Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -135,397 to -83,529
  • Cash on hand, June 30
    Kirchner n/a · Brown $1,156,556
  • Call program
    15,620 households, 46,861 dials, about 2,456 live conversations and 837 voter IDs, at $0.3965 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)
Upset Brief · OH-12 · Jerrad Christian (D) vs. Troy Balderson (R) · incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 24.4-point national wave.

Odds today<1%
With the plan<1%
Net votes to find87,041
Call program$8,667

Where

  1. Reynoldsburg 3-D (Licking County) +100
    Starting line Christian +39. 9.2% split their ticket. About 478 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  2. Columbus City E (Fairfield County) +88
    Starting line Christian +39. 12.9% split their ticket. About 419 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  3. Columbus City B (Fairfield County) +85
    Starting line Christian +44. 10.8% split their ticket. About 381 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  4. Granville Village C (Licking County) +81
    Starting line Christian +56. 9.6% split their ticket. About 304 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  5. Granville Village A (Licking County) +79
    Starting line Christian +31. 11.2% split their ticket. About 205 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).

The top 12 precincts carry 6% of the plan.

How

  • Persuade +13,138
    13,138 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Balderson today.
  • Mobilize +813
    At least 8,761 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Christian's side wins at least 55 percent.
  • Consolidate +415
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Christian's way.

Plus a 24.4-point national shift (72,675 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

  1. Christian wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Balderson.
  2. In Reynoldsburg 3-D (Licking County) and Granville Village C (Licking County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. It would take a national shift of about 24.4 points toward Christian's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

  • Crossover regression
    577 precincts, slope 0.956, R² 0.986, 96 crossover precincts
  • Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -108,213 to -37,463
  • Cash on hand, June 30
    Christian $18,925 · Balderson $1,982,352
  • Call program
    24,992 households, 74,976 dials, about 3,929 live conversations and 1,340 voter IDs, at $0.3468 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Ohio Secretary of State precinct returns, FEC filings and published polls. Baseline error and plan efficacy are stated assumptions shown on each race page. Not affiliated with any candidate or party. Text or call Frank Carrasco, 469.639.1600.