Upset Brief · OH-02 · Jen Mazzuckelli (D) vs. David Taylor (R), incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 34.9-point national wave.

0%
odds today
0%
odds with the plan
102,806
net votes to find
37
days left; voting starts October 6
Where
  1. 01
    Athens 1-1 (Athens County)
    Starting line Mazzuckelli +68. 8.5% split their ticket. About 298 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +88
  2. 02
    Athens 1-3 (Athens County)
    Starting line Mazzuckelli +68. 6.8% split their ticket. About 236 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +62
  3. 03
    Athens 2-4 (Athens County)
    Starting line Mazzuckelli +56. 11.9% split their ticket. About 141 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +61
  4. 04
    Athens Baker (Athens County)
    Starting line Mazzuckelli +26. 10.1% split their ticket. About 187 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +59
  5. 05
    Miami Township Z (Clermont County)
    Starting line Taylor +22. 10.8% split their ticket.
    +52
  6. 06
    Miami Township L1l (Clermont County)
    Starting line Taylor +10. 14.2% split their ticket.
    +50

The top 12 precincts carry 6% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    9,469 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Taylor today.
    +9,469
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 4,155 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Mazzuckelli's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +668
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Mazzuckelli's way.
    +344

Plus a national shift of 34.9 points of margin (92,324 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Mazzuckelli wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Taylor.
  2. In Athens 1-1 (Athens County) and Athens 1-3 (Athens County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 34.9 points toward Mazzuckelli's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    722 precincts, R² 0.983, 104 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -123,022 to -61,023 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30
    Mazzuckelli no FEC totals reported; Taylor $442,977.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    16,614 households, 49,841 dials, about 2,612 live conversations: an estimated $6,587 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $6,587 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

A program on this list with a dashboard you can watch daily: conversations, voter IDs and ballots chased, precinct by precinct.

The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Ohio races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Ohio Secretary of State precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.