Upset Brief · OH-05 · Brian Shaver (D) vs. Bob Latta (R), incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 16.2-point national wave.

<1%
odds today
1%
odds with the plan
61,635
net votes to find
Bob Latta won
result of the November 3, 2026 election
Where
  1. 01
    Middleton Twp North (Wood County)
    Starting line Latta +15. 14.6% split their ticket.
    +100
  2. 02
    Precinct Oberlin City #8 (Lorain County)
    Starting line Shaver +96. 0.7% split their ticket. About 290 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +99
  3. 03
    Precinct Oberlin City #7 (Lorain County)
    Starting line Shaver +94. 0.7% split their ticket. About 230 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +77
  4. 04
    Bowling Green 3-E (Wood County)
    Starting line Latta +1. 14.5% split their ticket.
    +75
  5. 05
    Bowling Green 4-A (Wood County)
    Starting line Shaver +12. 14.7% split their ticket. About 151 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +70
  6. 06
    Precinct N. Ridgeville 1-C (Lorain County)
    Starting line Latta +5. 14.3% split their ticket.
    +68

The top 12 precincts carry 5% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    14,568 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Latta today.
    +14,568
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 13,485 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Shaver's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +1,395
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Shaver's way.
    +480

Plus a national shift of 16.2 points of margin (45,191 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Shaver wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Latta.
  2. In Precinct Oberlin City #8 (Lorain County) and Precinct Oberlin City #7 (Lorain County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. It would take a national shift of about 16.2 points toward Shaver's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    595 precincts, R² 0.986, 94 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -79,030 to -11,748 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30
    Shaver $8,742 cash on hand; Latta $1,019,993.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    30,356 households, 91,069 dials, about 4,772 live conversations: an estimated $9,772 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $9,772 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

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The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Ohio races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Ohio Secretary of State precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.