Upset Brief · WV-01 · Vince George (D) vs. Carol Miller (R), incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 32.5-point national wave.

0%
odds today
0%
odds with the plan
89,941
net votes to find
36
days left; voting starts October 21
Where
  1. 01
    Precinct 14 (Lincoln County)
    Starting line Miller +40. 14.5% split their ticket.
    +73
  2. 02
    Precinct 403 (Kanawha County)
    Starting line George +37. 4.7% split their ticket. About 397 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +66
  3. 03
    Precinct 22 (Cabell County)
    Starting line Miller +2. 13.9% split their ticket.
    +65
  4. 04
    Precinct 406 (Kanawha County)
    Starting line George +41. 7.8% split their ticket. About 431 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +63
  5. 05
    Precinct 174 (Kanawha County)
    Starting line George +46. 11.8% split their ticket. About 111 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +63
  6. 06
    Precinct 184 (Kanawha County)
    Starting line George +8. 9.7% split their ticket.
    +57

The top 12 precincts carry 5% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    10,959 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Miller today.
    +10,959
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 5,350 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where George's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +488
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean George's way.
    +1,409

Plus a national shift of 32.5 points of margin (77,085 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. George wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Miller.
  2. In Precinct 406 (Kanawha County) and Precinct 403 (Kanawha County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. It would take a national shift of about 32.5 points toward George's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    893 precincts, R² 0.930, 114 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -104,761 to -48,892 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30
    George $258,330 cash on hand; Miller $604,379.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    21,592 households, 64,775 dials, about 3,394 live conversations: an estimated $7,488 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $7,488 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

A program on this list with a dashboard you can watch daily: conversations, voter IDs and ballots chased, precinct by precinct.

The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All West Virginia races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official West Virginia Secretary of State precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 27, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.